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Richard Roskell's avatar

Regarding Ukraine potentially using long-range missile strikes on Russian territory, if it happens I don't believe it's the final escalatory step to all-out war between NATO and Russia.

The targets Ukraine may be permitted to strike - at least initially - will be military objects. Depending on the damage done, Russia can calibrate its response accordingly. This could be, for instance, an attack on a US surface vessel in the Middle East by a Russian ally. The point being, at no time is the US or Russia directly attacking the other. This holds the conflict at a level well below that of full on war between the superpowers.

I'd judge it no better than 35-40% that the US will allow Ukraine to strike targets within Russia with new long-range weapons. The consequences of doing so will not change the direction of the conflict in Ukraine, and yet could easily result in a devastating blow to the US, particularly to the reputation and deterrence of the US Navy.

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james's avatar

yes, and to the quotes from putin, moa - bernhard also ended his post with a statement i agree with - "Vladimir Putin is not known for making empty threats."

so we'll see how this unfolds soon enough..

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