Crooke: "The Slow-Motion Advance to the Edge of the Abyss"

Alastair Crooke updates his previous essay, ““Operation Jupiter” and a Revolution in the Making,” with the ongoing fallout from the failed attempt on Donald Trump’s life in his Al-Mayadeen column, “The Slow-Motion Advance to the Edge of the Abyss,” the caption of the article’s header graphic saying, “Trump’s been shot—but not killed—there is a lot of rage,” which IMO greatly understates the rage that would’ve ensued had he been killed. As Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated, “After numerous attempts to remove Trump from the political arena with the help of legal tools, courts, the prosecution, attempts to politically discredit and compromise the candidate, it was clear to all outside observers that his life was in danger.” Many have revealed their great disappointment and utter lack of morality by bemoaning the fact that Trump survived. But that was to be expected given the last nine years of unparalleled character assassination exceeded by only a few people in modern times, Fidel Castro being the best known to have been targeted so much.

In his earlier essay, Crooke talked about the failure of Macron’s attempt to avoid a hung parliament, which was an important outcome for both France and the EU, but its impact on geopolitics was scant compared with the assassination attempt. In his transition from Macron’s debacle to its overall meaning, Crooke cites the philosopher Malebranche who “wrote (1684) in his Traité de Morale: “Men forgive everything, except contempt”:

“An elite that fails in its duties is called élitist; From then on, their activity seems unjust and abusive, but more importantly, their very existence is an affront. This is the source of hatred, of the transformation of emulation into jealousy, and of jealousy into a thirst for revenge—and consequently of wars”.

And IMO, we can apply that to the American situation that began with Trump’s 2016 victory. The intrigue unfolding within the Outlaw US Empire in the wake of “security failure” that myself and other objective analysts announced is intense and extremely partisan, is massively damning and becoming even more so. But Crooke looks beyond what’s transpiring domestically and looks at how this colors the Big Picture. Yes, it’s clear that he’s perhaps 48-hours or so behind the news cycle, but that sort of delay at times can’t be helped. If he ran a substack, that might differ. Here’s his essay:

Everything now changes: The image of a bloodied Trump pumping his fist in the air, and mouthing the words “fight” -- as Secret Service agents hustled him off the stage --  is set to become the iconic image of the year; possibly even of the decade [or century]. Now add blood and bullets to the mix, and the mixture becomes thunderous.

Like it or not, Trump’s political instincts caught the moment.  He surged up, strong and defiant.  This will resonate powerfully amongst Americans who appreciate strength.  Biden, by contrast, has assumed the role of ‘unifier-in-chief’. The former campaign to dislodge Biden is now a faded dream; the various contenders can see plainly the pointlessness of such a course. They are postponing their hopes to another era.

“When a populist movement built on frustration over decades of misrule began having electoral success”, Matt Taibbi has written, “they created a legend that the backlash was irrational and the fault of one Donald Trump, building him into a figure of colossal art, a super-Hitler. It became cliché that he was the embodiment of all evil and needed to be stopped “at all costs.” By late last year, mainstream press organizations were saying legal means had failed, and more or less openly calling for a truly final solution to the Trump problem”.

In fact, the emerging ethos (call it ‘the new populism’ if you prefer) is neither Left nor Right, but borrows themes from both. As Jeffrey Tucker notes:

“The theme of being sceptical of empowered and entrenched elites is the salient point. This applies in Europe as much as the US”. 

“It is not only about politics. It hits media, medicine, courts, academia, and every other high-end sector. And is in many countries. This really does amount to a paradigmatic shift. It seems not temporary but substantial; and likely lasting”.

“What happened over four years has unleashed a mass wave of incredulity [and a sense of the illegitimacy of the Élites] that has been building for decades”.

Now Trump’s been shot -- but not killed - there is a lot of rage. A “slow-motion assassination” -- as well as the real attempt -- has been in process over years, Taibbi argues: 

“Trump opponents went after all his constitutional rights, almost in order: censored, surveilled, unreasonably searched … it seemed an attack on the rights of all people. But in hindsight it was deeper than that: The physical suppression of Trump at some point became a psychological imperative for his political enemies”.  

Last November, in the Washington Post, Robert Kagan described Trump as a deadly meteor headed for earth, which needed stopping by “every conceivable” means.

A host of unanswered questions will be swirling around the Republican convention this week. The tenor and acerbity of the party base’s riposte will define EU and US politics for time to come. Likely, there will be little slack given to GOP ‘centrists’.

This week’s Convention will define the ‘state of temper’ within the Republican Public Forum.  And as for the opposition camp -- the permanent ruling Strata -- its objectives will not have melted away with the assassination attempt; but rather will have acquired greater import: That is to say, the re-confirmation of the American-led ‘Rules-Based Order’, and a show of force to quell any monetary ‘mutiny’ centred around the US dollar status. 

For these connected objectives, a NATO victory in Ukraine is deemed essential:

“The biggest risk and biggest cost for NATO today, is the risk of Russian victory in Ukraine. We cannot allow this”, SG Stoltenberg said at the NATO anniversary in Washington: “The outcome of this war will determine global security for decades to come”. 

We are not talking here military primacy, it is about the West not going financially ‘broke’. Expenditure by western States and their ‘welfare states’ far exceeds available resources. And the latter are almost impossible to increase significantly, either through economic growth or taxation. 

The only way for western States to make ends meet is to run up increasing debts, which can only be supported by very low interest rates, but above all by the ability to issue money indefinitely - ‘out of thin air’. 

Europe survives -- continues to spend and accumulate debt -- thanks only to the Euro’s privileged link to the German high credit rating for 10-year Bunds. Were these facilities to cease, the general population that never ceases to grumble -- living its’ rose-tinted dream, and held in blind ignorance of the state of the European finances -- would awake to the secret of western destitution. 

The ruling class is well aware of the ‘secret’, but prefers not to talk about it, because no one knows what to do. At the moment of truth, when states acknowledge bankruptcy, the western public will be shaken to the core. It was the financial failure of the French State -- let us not forget -- that provoked the French Revolution:  

But, you may ask, why cannot this monetary profligacy go on indefinitely? That is what we are going to find out -- but not just yet. The US does not survive economically – as does Europe – by a fragile thread linking German sovereign debt to US debt instruments; yet were its debt to find dwindling foreign buyers, then its situation would be as stark as that of Europe. 

For a long time being an American protectorate was tolerable -- even advantageous. But no longer; America no longer ‘frightens’. Taboos are breaking down. The mutiny against the postmodern West is worldwide.  And it is clear to the global majority that Russia cannot be defeated militarily.  It is NATO -- perversely -- that is being defeated.

Here is the ‘hole at the centre’ of the enterprise: After the attempted Trump assassination, Biden and the Democratic ‘church’ may not be around for much longer. Everyone can see that. And so war to prop a failing military hegemony, that in turn is contingent upon a dissolving dollar hegemony, suddenly becomes moot and urgent.

The impulse therefore will be to ‘rev-up’ the proxy war against Ukraine by incrementally climbing the escalatory ladder until war shifts from being just ‘one option’ to become a self-instantiating, and irreversible outcome.   

Sending troops and offering fighter jets -- and longer range missiles to Kiev -- looks to be the Deep State stoking European war. The fact that the US apparently thinks to use F-16 bases in Romania, and  to station Ballistic INF missiles in Germany, might seem intended as the way to light a war in Europe -- in order to save various fragile Atlanticist political and financial fortunes.

Even certain EU leaders -- those dangerously haemorrhaging political support at home, as their cordons Sanitaires against Left and Right fracture -- may see matters in a similar vein: War as the exit to a fast-approaching, EU fiscal train-wreak. 

For war -- conversely -- allows all fiscal and constitutional rules to be tossed aside. Mere ‘politicians’ suddenly transform into Commanders-in-Chief and military ‘commanders’.

There is, however, clear poll evidence that Europeans (88%) say that "NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine”: The public overwhelmingly is shown to favour goals such as “avoiding escalation” and “avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers”.

What is more likely is that pent up anti-war feeling in Europe will burst forth -- perhaps even leading ultimately to the rejection of NATO in its entirety. Trump might then find himself pushing at an open door with his NATO stance of extreme scepticism. [Bolded italics my emphasis]

IMO, overcoming current public opinion in Europe will be impossible as many are now well aware of how they’ve been manipulated yet again, and few want a WW3 that will be far more destructive than the first two combined. They may not be able to avoid Deep State plotting, however. That psychotic hawks retain positions of power within NATO/EU isn’t good, although their time is short to incite. Lavrov’s UNSC performance over the past several days has alerted even more people to the fact that Russia isn’t the demon here with that role clearly being that of Outlaw US Empire and its NATO appendage which lusts for even more hegemony.

The key question is, Will Trump be able to win despite even greater election fraud by the Deep State? The next question would then become, How much will he have learned from his first term, and will he forcefully pursue his policy goals? IMO, JD Vance as Veep will be a big help, but Trump will need to nominate a far better class of people for key positions. And of course, there’s the question of Congress. Of course, much can and will happen over the next three and one-half months remaining before election day. I expect a more sophisticated attempt on Trump’s life given longstanding Deep State behavior. It must also be said that the Ukrainian Nazis have said both Trump and Vance are now targets for them. The oddity of the situation is Trump’s position on Palestine and China differs very little from the Deep State’s unless he’s very recently altered his positions.

I’ll close with my usual note that I’ll be voting for Jill Stein. I do think readers ought to read this Sergei Karaganov essay discussed by Hudson and Desai, “Decades of Wars?,” as well as reading this transcript from a recent chat between Hudson and Nima Alkhorshid, the latter opening thusly:

Michael, let’s get started with the SCO summit. And right after that, we’re having the NATO summit. It seems that NATO is fighting on behalf of the United States to try to preserve the U.S. unipolar hegemony over Eurasia and the Global South, isn’t it?

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