Crooke Update & Iran + Saudis Meet in China Again

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a long recap of the meeting with the delegations from the Ministries of Saudi Arabia and Iran that Global Times also picked up on and published its own recap, “1st meeting of China-Saudi Arabia-Iran trilateral joint committee concludes; MidEast should 'no longer be geopolitical arena' for great powers.” The First is in Chinese and the second in English. What follows is the translation from the Chinese as the primary document carries more information:

On December 15, 2023, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, met with Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Al-Khuraj and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Al-Bagheri, who came to China to hold the first meeting of the China-Saudi Arabia-Iran Trilateral Joint Commission.

Wang Yi congratulated the tripartite joint committee on the success of the first meeting, and said that China has always supported the people of the Middle East in independently exploring the path of development, supporting Middle Eastern countries in solidarity and cooperation to resolve regional security issues, and supporting Saudi Arabia and Iran in continuously advancing the process of improving relations. China is willing to take this trilateral meeting as an opportunity to inject new impetus into the realization of good-neighborly friendship between Saudi Arabia and Iran and make new contributions to promoting peace and stability in the Middle East.

Wang Yi put forward three suggestions for continuing to promote the process of improving Saudi-Iranian relations: First, adhere to the strategic choice of reconciliation unswervingly. Improving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is in the interests of both sides, in line with the expectations of the international community, and will also help the two countries enhance their regional and international influence. It is hoped that the two sides will uphold their strategic autonomy, maintain their strategic focus, continue to enhance mutual trust through dialogue and consultation, and achieve lasting and comprehensive good-neighborliness and friendship. Second, we should further promote the process of improving relations. China welcomes Saudi Arabia and Iran to actively explore cooperation and expand people-to-people exchanges in the fields of economy, trade, security and people-to-people relations, and stands ready to strengthen exchanges with Saudi Arabia and Iran to help improve bilateral relations. It is hoped that the two sides will communicate and discuss more, eliminate misunderstandings in a timely manner, and avoid misjudgment. In this process, China is ready to continue to play a positive and constructive role. The third is to eliminate external interference. Improving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is on the right side of history. The Middle East can no longer become a geopolitical arena for major powers, and the fate of the Middle East should be in the hands of the people of the countries in the Middle East. We believe that Saudi Arabia and Iran have the ability and wisdom to eliminate external interference in a timely manner, promote the steady and long-term progress of the reconciliation process, and maintain long-term peace and stability in the region.

Wang Yi stressed that China supports Saudi Arabia and Iran in jointly promoting the formation of a stronger and unanimous position of Islamic countries on the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. China has always stood by the vast number of Arab and Muslim countries and supported the restoration of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. The top priority is to promote a ceasefire and cease fighting in Gaza, promote humanitarian assistance, and resume Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. Any solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict should respect the will of the Palestinian people and the legitimate concerns of countries in the region, and should not deviate from the two-state solution. China is ready to work with Saudi Arabia and Iran and Arab and Muslim countries to promote the formation of a timetable and roadmap for the implementation of the two-state solution as soon as possible, so as to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East.

Huraj and Bagheri thanked the Chinese side for hosting the meeting, spoke highly of the achievements of the meeting in implementing the Beijing Agreement and promoting the improvement of Saudi-Iranian relations, and said that Saudi-Iranian relations are moving forward on a positive track, and the two sides will continue to strengthen cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, security, and people-to-people relations, strive for more reconciliation results, and jointly promote regional security, stability and development. The Beijing agreement has opened a new page in China's active role in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran welcome and support China to play a greater role in the development of the Middle East, and stand ready to work with China to uphold multilateralism, promote regional and world development and progress, and write a new chapter in trilateral cooperation.

Khulaiji and Bagheri thanked China for its initiative and efforts to ease the situation in Gaza, and expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation with China in bilateral and multilateral fields to promote an early just and lasting settlement of the Palestinian issue. [My Emphasis]

Many readers will react negatively to the continued pursuit of the Two State Solution. Like it or not, that’s the established International Law track on the issue that provides the main point of leverage for the Global Majority. Crooke’s update, “Israeli Bait-and-Switch Tactics -- Amidst the Resistance’s Careful Strategic Calculus,” provides a reason why that track continues to be pursued and answers the question why no bordering states have yet intervened militarily—they all seem to be aware of and agree with the Resistance Axis’s actions as the best way to proceed to avoid the outbreak of a wider war involving all frontline states.

Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said on Saturday’s Israeli Channel 12 news that the situation on the border with Lebanon would change. He said that should Hezbollah refuse to withdraw its forces from south of the Litani River, the Israelis would have “to take other measures to dictate a new reality”. 

The Israelis are making clear threats against Hezbollah in an attempt to spur the international community toward a quick ‘diplomatic arrangement’. The US has already mandated US and French envoys to offer Lebanon substantial financial inducements to agree to the proposed buffer zone inside Lebanon. They didn’t agree; the Lebanese side said ‘no’ in double-quick time. 

So, Israelis have given a ‘48 hour ultimatum’ to Lebanon to convene the tripartite committee on the border, and begin negotiations based on UNSCR 1701 for an international agreement that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani and that the south be de-militarised.  

Resolution 1701-- which was launched as a purported solution to the 2006 Lebanon war -- is anything but clear-cut. It has never been implemented according to the Israeli interpretation of its provisions (that a Hezballah-free zone south of the Litani be created). And the resolution remains hotly disputed:  Hezballah never agreed, nor effectively did the Lebanese Armed Forces, nor the UN. But by August 2006, the Israeli government was anxious for any reasonable off-ramp from the war. It did not wait for ‘i’s’ to be dotted, or the ‘t’s’ to be crossed on the resolution. 

The chances for a Hezballah voluntary withdrawal from south Lebanon, in any case, are a clear zero. 

And Hanegby knows it. But Defence Minister Galant has stated publicly that he wants Israeli civilians displaced from northern Israel in the wake of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah following the 7 October events, to be able to return to their homes in northern Israel in January. 

The residents’ leaders, however, have stated categorically that they won’t go -- no way will they live next door to a border fence with Hezballah plainly visible on the other side. Only with Hezballah ‘gone’  will they consider a return, they said.

Therefore, the likelihood is that the Israelis will be the one to take military action to try to change the status quo in respect to Hezbollah. Indeed, Galant has been pressing for military action against Hezbollah from the outset of the Gaza confrontation (as the latter offered an unprecedented window of opportunity to weaken or to destroy Hezbollah, Gallant claimed).

Western main-stream media suggests that the timing is linked to Team Biden’s pressure on the Israeli Cabinet to complete its military action in Gaza in January, but this analysis possibly accords too much importance to the White House ability to force Netanyahu to comply with its dictates. The Israeli Lobby has major influence in the US Congress, and the latter will support Israeli interests over those of the White House. It would be a courageous (foolhardy) Administration that takes on the Lobby -- frontally. 

Netanyahu understands this better than most: He has often boasted that the US is ‘easily manipulated’, and that he is the one who knows best how to do it.

No -- the timing is more likely linked to concerns about how to sell the Israeli army's ‘achievements’ as a success to the Israeli public, who are beginning to doubt that Hamas is anywhere near to defeat -- and are beginning to doubt too, that bombing Palestinian civilians is putting pressure on Hamas to release more hostages; rather it is seen as risking more hostage lives.

The inept Israeli military's attempt to portray rounded-up Palestinian civilians, stripped to their underwear, as surrendering Hamas soldiers, only reinforces public suspicions that Hamas forces remain largely undamaged.

If no deal is reached during this period through December-January 2024 to return more Israeli hostages; if there is no mass surrender of Hamas forces; if no members of the organization's senior command are killed -- will Israeli public opinion accept that the destruction in Gaza (with its attendant damage to Israeli image) marks an achievement? Will it be considered a success?

Rather, Hamas's resilience plus the sustained international pressure as a result of the continuing Gaza massacre, ultimately may compel the Israelis to negotiate -- and eventually reach a (costly) deal with the Palestinian movement.

So, perhaps a switch to the northern front might take some pressure off Gaza -- as Akhbar Ahmad notes in the Huffington Post:

“Analysts believe the Israeli government could count on [attacking Hizbullah] to distract from their controversial Gaza operation, which has seemingly had little major success in weakening Israel’s enemies” … “This is definitely Israel testing the waters, and they are seeing, ‘How will the international community react?’” [one] analyst said; “It’s very clear that there is a plan, and the groundwork is being prepared for implementation”.

And with the Israelis in a two-front war, how could Washington possibly even think to restrict munitions supplies as a form of political leverage over the Israeli Cabinet? Recall that Israeli policy in Gaza and in the north will enjoy overwhelming public support -- according to recent Israeli polls. The US Congress will know that.

For the ‘Resistance axis’, a switch to Hezbollah is expected. Just as the Israeli reaction to 7 October was expected; Israeli failure to defeat Hamas in Gaza was expected; and likely, the subsequent switch to the Israelis taking military action to try to change the status quo with respect to Hezbollah is expected, too.

This careful Resistance calculus underlines that Hamas and its allies have a strategy whose steps up the escalatory ladder are co-ordinated and proceed by consensus, eschewing impulsive reactions to events that might plunge the region into an all-out war -- a destructive war that none of the ‘front principals’ wish to see. 

From the Resistance perspective, this ‘switch’ might be a welcome development: It would mean the ‘wider war’ against the Israelis will be moving up a rung on the escalatory ladder, since it is the Israelis ‘taking measures to (try to) dictate a new reality’ on the northern border.  

The overall Zionist Project of 100% Genocide of Palestinians has failed, is kaput, but they will continue to kill anyway, just not as outrightly as in the initial stages over the last two months. The political damage done to the Zionists and their supporters—particularly those in the Outlaw US Empire—is huge and will last for many years. The key position shown by Russia and China is allowing the regional actors to decide the fate and formulate the solution, meaning the force required to make the Zionists accommodate to a genuinely just solution will be applied by the Resistance Axis as they are judged able to perform that function.

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