Crooke's Latest: "Paradigms are Fractured Beyond the Imagined; Perhaps Irreparably"
What hope for a solution is realistic?
Header picture by al-Mayadeen.
Crooke’s latest contains some of his thoughts as expressed during his talks with Judge Napolitano as well as from his earlier writings. As a lifelong diplomat, it’s his nature to see the positive within the darkness, but this time that’s admittedly very r=hard for him to see, which ought to cause us all great concern. Nasrallah is giving a long speech as is his style as I type this warning the Outlaw US Empire to reverse its course and use its power to halt the Zionists instead of abetting their Genocide, which will be vehemently resisted. Several Arab nations are producing legislation prohibiting any normalization with the Zionists that’s rather similar to Zelensky’s refusal to negotiate with Russia, which signals a long-term impasse will develop depending on Zionist behavior. Such legislation also threatens to undermine part of the basis for the Arab Peace Initiative—normalization of Arab-Zionist relations once peace is attained. It' ought to be rather clear now that for the API to work at all, peace and satisfaction of Palestinian Independence must be established prior to any normalization has the Zionists must prove their word can be honored. Crooke’s essay is short as usual for this publication.
The paradigm of Western ‘invincibility’ has taken quite a beating: First in Afghanistan, and then more substantially in Ukraine – where NATO’s ‘clay feet’ were exposed to the world.
With the Fukuyama ‘End of History’ tail-wind behind it, the authority of Western elites has been sustained through a self-righteous global moral superiority: Anti-communism and subsequently post 9/11 Islamic ‘terrorism’ became an important political resource on which the ruling strata could draw. It also endowed the élites with a sense of cohesion.
But most important of all, it provided them with moral legitimacy.
Today, Western élites are continuously confronted with the loss of their authority (i.e. the advent of multipolarity), and are searching for a new ‘legitimacy’, as the World turns its back on exceptionalism and its ‘with us, or against us’ binary substrata.
Then came 7 October.
The Israeli paradigm crashed -- both in its external, and internal manifestations of ‘deterrence’.
Jabotinsky’s "Israel" was to be a ‘nation-state’ with all the power of the 19th century model (Jabotinsky drew for his Iron Wall (1923) thinking on the ‘Young Turks’ enthused with the Western nation-state for its core zeitgeist).
So, if the current trauma in the West in respect to its defeat in Ukraine is profound, you have, I fear to add, not yet seen the ‘half of it’.
The 7 October events broke the ‘deterrence myth’ -- putting the West in uproar.
“This is the most important point — ‘our deterrence’”, a senior Israeli war-Cabinet member said:
“The region must quickly understand that whoever harms Israel in the way Hamas did, will pay a disproportionate price. There is no other way to survive in our neighbourhood than to exact this price now, because many eyes are fixed on us and most of them do not have our best interests at heart.”
The Israeli ‘paradigm’ thus hinges on the State manifesting overwhelming, crushing force directed to any emerging challenge to it. The US and Europe, having ordained a state (UNGA Resolution 181), then insisted that "Israel" possess both the political leading-edge (in the Oslo Accords, all strategic decisions lay with "Israel" uniquely) and, equally, that it have the military ‘cutting leading-edge’ over all its neighbours, too.
Oslo, in other words, was predicated on building a strong 19th-century-style nation-state -- one having invincible deterrence.
Despite being presented as such, this is not a formula by which any sustainable peace accord by which the division of Mandate Palestine into two states can be reached. Parity between the two parties was by definition excluded: One would possess overwhelming force; the other would be disarmed. And "Israel" always went for more.
And further, under the Netanyahu government, "Israel" has been moving closer and closer to an eschatological founding of "Israel" on the (Biblical) ‘Land of Israel’ -- a move that expunges Palestine. It is no coincidence that Netanyahu flourished a map of "Israel" during his recent UN General Assembly address, in which "Israel" dominated from the River to the Sea -- and Palestine or Palestinian territory was non-existent.
Oslo, as it were, effectively became an instrument of stealth; a quiet political Nakba -- settlements expanded, and any putative Palestine became ever more attenuated.
To understand the Western angst - and sense of existential crisis - it should be understood that "Israel" was viewed in London and Washington as the microcosm to the Western hegemonic macrocosm. "Israel’s" deterrence was Little NATO to the deterrence of NATO invincibility -- writ large.
And then Hamas smashed the paradigm. The deterrence paradigm had failed.
The risk here clearly is that a weakened White House will over-react in order to show that (against all the evidence) it is not weak, but rather is still the hegemon, by throwing its weight around -- possibly at Iran. The US is sending aircraft carriers and attendant vessels, plus huge convoys (100s) of heavy-lift cargo planes loaded with bombs, missiles and air defences (THAAD and Patriot) not only to "Israel", but also to the Gulf, to Jordan and Cyprus. Special Forces and marines are being deployed too. This is provocative. The US effectively is sending a veritable full-scale major war Armada.
On the other hand, the anger across the Region is real and threatens ‘moderate’ Arab leaders, whose room for manoeuvre is now circumscribed. It would seem that the mood of the Arab sphere is different, and resembles more the 1916 Arab Revolt that overthrew the Ottoman Empire. It is taking on a distinct ‘edge’ as both Shi’a and Sunni religious authorities state the duty of Muslims to stand with Palestinians. Jews across the Western world are horrified at the 7th October killing - but more aghast at its implications for Israeli deterrence.
In other words, as "Israel" becomes plainly apocalyptic (Netanyahu in his speech spoke of 'ripping out evil' from the world), so the Islamic mood is turning eschatological too. Recall President Erdogan’s warning of the conflict evolving into the ‘Crescent versus the Cross’.
The dichotomy and polar passion is set to spike (if not explode) as the incursion into Gaza reaches its crescendo. A Region, hot with anger, is mobilising against "Israel". And the Western world is threatening retribution for any new fronts that might open.
What to do?
The default move is to call for a two-state solution. States must, of course, have a diplomatic public stance.
Fine, so long as it is understood that this, more likely, can only serve as ‘an emotional venting mechanism’. The two-state formula simply is not realisable in our present moment of heightened passions (if it ever was). The more basic question is whether a two-state solution is a solution at all. In the last ten years, the Israeli electorate has shifted far to the Right. Ministers in the government now seek to found "Israel" on the ‘Land of Israel’.
What -- other than a humiliating defeat -- would now persuade frightened Israelis to agree to a sovereign Palestinian State? What other than a humiliating defeat for the entire resistance ‘front’ (now labelled as the 'Axis of Evil' by some in the West) would persuade the latter to accept a Greater "Israel" after witnessing the destruction of Gaza? The US lacks the means to twist Israeli arms to this extent -- that would run totally foreign to the grain of US political culture.
No. The job ahead is to try to contain the conflict from overflowing out from some well-defined course ways.
Yes, containing the conflict seems to be the immediate task. China now heads the UNSC for November and has announced its #1 goal is to establish a ceasefire. How it will accomplish that in the face of the Outlaw US Empire’s determination to allow the Zionist’s Genocidal project to continue is unknown.
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Crooke "The two-state formula simply is not realisable in our present moment of heightened passions (if it ever was). The more basic question is whether a two-state solution is a solution at all. "
It's not a solution it's the Cause of the conflict from the get go in 1947 --- and earlier in the 1930s when it was first floated and caused violence and riots across the land.
And Crooke - "The US and Europe, having ordained a state (UNGA Resolution 181) .."
He overstates its importance and value, I think he should be more careful and clearer. RES 181 is not fit for purpose. The State of Israel was never founded upon, nor "ORDAINED BY" Res 181 and people should stop inferring it was, or that 181 has any relationship at all to the obstinate unilateral criminal declaration of Israel as a state in 1948 -- because nothing could be further from the truth.
People should read it carefully in full and pay particular attention to the wording and see the huge problems it was creating --- driven not just by Europe and the US but the fledgling incompetent UN system and wild gullibility of the 5 nation adhoc committee that produced this mess of a "recommendation" --- and see what the Zionists actually created then and how they changed it since.
"Recommends to the United Kingdom, as the
mandatory Power for Palestine, and to all other
Members of the United Nations the adoption and
implementation, with regard to the future gov-
emment of Palestine, of the Plan of Partition with
Economic Union set out below;"
Requests that
( a) The Security Council take the necessary
measures as provided for in the plan for its im-
plementation;
http://undocs.org/A/RES/181(II)
Please read it in detail .... it is not a "Plan" it is a joke - it is a ludicrous document and a recipe for total disaster, violence and crimes against humanity. To Pass this Resolution was an act of Criminal Insanity (imo)
The most incompetent piece of work ever attempted by the UN (UNSC 242 comes a close second) - this Resolution was never implemented - it is a non-entity - it essentially never existed - people (incl Crooke) should just stop referring to it at all and ignore it completely.
Cheers
"What -- other than a humiliating defeat -- would now persuade frightened Israelis to agree to a sovereign Palestinian State?"
Aye, there's the rub. The assumption that Israel gets to determine such outcomes. If and when the other countries in the region can come together sufficiently to propose a territorial configuration that has a chance of working, Israel for sure can reject their proposal but if they are too difficult they may find that they will at some point be asked to leave altogether. They don't get to decide how Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan run their countries, and NOR should they get to determine that for the Palestinians.
That assumption has got to go. And the regional states, either within or multilaterally outside the UN (which is usually worse then useless with this issue) must find a way to banish it from their collective geopolitical space and stop ceding initiative and terms to the eternally pushy Israelis...