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richardstevenhack's avatar

"primordially Russian territories" That term interests me. What would really be considered "primordially" given that Kiev used to be a Russian city since 1667? Lvov would escape that, but as I've been arguing western Ukraine has military value to Russia so I doubt it will escape occupation, regardless of all the excuses people come up with as reasons Russia wouldn't do so.

With regard to what Shoigu said about the war lasting through 2025, Alexander Mercouris said on The Duran video yesterday that if you read the original Russian about Shoigu's statement, it seems that he was talking about their "Action Plan 2025", not the Ukraine war specifically. I don't know, I can't find the statement as the MoD Web site is closed to access for me and I don't know if it was published on the Telegram channel. And he could also have been referring to the overall war against the US and NATO, although I suspect that will go on for much longer than Ukraine itself.

And of course once the Kiev regime has fallen, there will be months and months - if not years - of cleanup and Russian troops will remain, as I' have argued, so saying that the SMO will continue to and beyond 2025 doesn't really tell us anything about the actual length of time Russia expects the Ukraine military to be actually fighting. As I keep telling people, one has to parse Russian words very carefully because they are both precise and frequently deliberately misleading.

As for the Democrats hatred of Russia going back to Trump, I think that's reaching a bit. No doubt there are some in the Clinton camp who think that. But as Mercouris said in The Duran video, this is now a political problem for the Democrats - how to get out of the Ukraine mess without losing to the Republicans. They're scared that Biden is unsuitable to run again, so they're fractured on that score, they're scared of RFK Jr., they're scared of Trump or some other Republican winning all because of Ukraine. Since this is entirely because Russia can't be beaten, they think they have to keep funneling money and arms to Ukraine because, as Martyanov constantly says, they don't understand what real war is.

A lot of the pro-Russian analysts are beginning to voice the suspicion that the Biden administration will put US troops explicitly into Ukraine. The talk now is about "advisors" - of course, there already are "advisors" in Ukraine, albeit not "officially." But the talk about a "frozen conflict" brings up the concept of :"peacekeepers" and I expect that will be the next term used. Poland seems to be backing away from directly intervening into Ukraine and if that happens it will be left to the US to do so.

And Medvedev is right: if you officially put NATO "advisors" into Ukraine, they will be targeted, killed and used to justify an Article 5 or Article 4 (which is the more dangerous of the two Articles) intervention.

With what is the question, since NATO has no capability and the US won't be able to do so in less than six months to a year of force and logistical deployment - which Russia would then be forced to interdict.

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Acco Hengst's avatar

McCarthy is working a backdoor deal with the Dems about Ukraine funding.

It takes $24B a quarter to keep Ukraine's government functioning, never mind war material, which means the US will be on the hook for another 100B, $24B of political fighting at a time.

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