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marcjf's avatar

Oddly enough I was listening to this when your email arrived, so thank you for saving me about an hour of my life!

Re the final point that Lavrov makes, and per Jacques Baud's book where he outlines modern Russian military doctrine, this is important. The Russians (and the Soviets before them) realised that a "limited" nuclear war in Europe disproportionately affects Europe (durr...) and Russia, but not CONUS. So Russian doctrine is to target the USA should such a thing occur.

The USA cannot escape. The USA knows this so might only use nukes on the territory of its allies. Which may or may not include Crimea and the Donbas. MAD indeed. We hope the professionals will keep the amateurs in check.

The Russians are extremely aware of first strike capability and have a use them or lose them approach to WMDs. The fond western view - indeed in DC especially - is that nuclear war can be confined to Europe and would in any event only occur after much escalation. The opposite is almost certainly true. Armageddon could occur quickly and would engulf the USA. No one knows where Russia would draw the line and as such the recent clarification of their doctrine might even be seen as a genuine attempt to de-escalate risk - though was greeted with the opposite reaction.

The almost certain MAD end game is what kept the peace during the Cold War. But back then we had serious people in charge. Not now, as Lavrov alludes. And we must remember that in around 100 wargames run by NATO on similar situations pre-2022, every one escalated and went to MAD. So I remain hopeful but am working my way through the best wine in my cellar.

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uncle tungsten's avatar

The 'Empire' of the usa may well pretend that it is agreement capable but you can bet that the 'empire' of the uk will immediately undermine and sabotage any such agreement. THIS is the danger of our situation. Goliath has fleas -no, scorpions - in his ear.

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