I have great difficulty reconciling Erdogan’s stated support for the Ukrainian comedian via weapons transfers, his stated support for the indivisibility of Ukraine’s borders, the blatant land grab that is occurring in Syria, with what I am reading here from Lavrov. I understand the premise of keeping your enemies close, but am concerned whether there is some cognitive dissonance on the part of Russia here. Is this RealPolitik in action? Very cold or cynical if it is.
There're no short answers to your several questions. A better, closer observer of Turkey and Erdogan is Pepe Escobar who casted Erdogan as a wannabe Sultan at the beginning of the Outlaw US Empire's war against Syria and that descriptive term hasn't been removed, only reinforced. The very odd relationship between Turkey, NATO, Russia, and EU is also part of the political reality that shapes events. That the EU has rejected Turkey's repeated attempts to join because of Europe's longstanding hatred of Turks and Islam is at odds with Turkey's strategic role during the Cold War which aligned many Turk elites with the Atlanticist POV despite the fact that Turkey is geoeconomically dependent on Russia for energy and much more. IMO, Turkey's national interests coincide with an alliance of sorts with Russia and Eurasia as Europe has very little to offer; yet the elites still look West, not East.
The Russians are very good at discerning what constitutes a nation's interests, which helps Russia formulate its policy towards that nation. That most of Europe is going against its national interests is the major impasse between it and Russia. Turkey has opted to keep its relations with Russia primarily because it must--its dependent, knows it, and doesn't dare risk destabilizing its domestic situation by cutting off that dependency as Europe has. Russia sees all that and acts accordingly. Syria is going to remain destabilized until the Outlaw US Empire and the Zionists quit the country. Russia clearly opted not to go to war with the Empire there. I'm on record saying Idlib should have been cleared of Terrorists back in 2019. The main impediment appears to have been the Turks but now we know Assad was an unwilling partner in solving the political problem.
Eventually and possibly quite soon, NATO will cease to exist. IMO, the Turks will tell the Empire to remove its forces and leave. How that will affect relations with Greece and Cyprus are unknown. Syria's and the Kurd's disposition are also unknown. The latter will have an impact on the 3+3 situation. The Kurdish people merit a nation, and it's likely that region will remain destabilized by those seeking Kurdish statehood until they're finally granted one. And of course, the greatest sin by Erdogan is vilifying the Zionist Genocide while continuing to ship vital oil to them, which has prevented the collapse of the Zionist economy. At 70, his remaining time as Turkish president might end at the next election since health issues begin to take their toll.
It's fairly simple really. With 2 of the main supply routes, arteries, cut off in Ukraine and Germany, Turk Stream (Turkiye) remains the only 'direct' energy transfer hub for European sales.
The Power of Siberia 2 and the fledgeling Northern Sea Route will in the future accommodate Russia's total energy production/sales, think West Asia, Iran, Asia general.
Belousov was brought in for these economic realities or wars cost money pragmatism.
Regarding Ukraine's borders, Turkiye and Israel, others, have historical influence/ties and like Romania, Hungary, Poland and BLACKROCK will, like the cockroaches they are, be ready to pounce should the opportunity present itself.
Sanctioned Syria was always a hornet's nest and those who made it's overthrow possible, like Saudi, will now be having kittens watching Turkiye extend their influence in the region.
Expect twists and turn before they all come back to Daddy.
To summarize, all's fair in love and war.
Defeating US/NATO in Ukraine, expanding it's geopolitical and economic influence via BRICS+, will, in the medium and long term enable Russia to decide whether Europe is a lost cause or whether Europe can rid itself of the current whoremongers, the so-called elite, punch drunk and ruining the continent and choose to renew ties, only on less than favourable terms than previous.
It is clearly true that the British support of Zionism during its 'Mandate' has been the worst result of the Sykes Picot division of the region. But the French support for sectarian division in Lebanon and the creation of the Lebanese state, dominated by the French favoured Maronites, has also proved to be extremely malicious.
The Zionists feast upon the many divisions fostered by the European imperialists.
Saladin was a Kurd when he led the forces which expelled the crusaders.
Agreed. The Kurds historically were a major component of the Ottoman Empire as were the Armenians until WW1 and the Turkish Revolution that drastically changed all that.
Erdogan has radically changed the nature of Turkish society - and plays all sides, especially on energy as he has recently also signed deals with US BigOil on LNG.
And as Lavrov, once again, strongly states [wrt Ukraine] - 'we have not changed our position'.
Thanks for this Karl.
I have great difficulty reconciling Erdogan’s stated support for the Ukrainian comedian via weapons transfers, his stated support for the indivisibility of Ukraine’s borders, the blatant land grab that is occurring in Syria, with what I am reading here from Lavrov. I understand the premise of keeping your enemies close, but am concerned whether there is some cognitive dissonance on the part of Russia here. Is this RealPolitik in action? Very cold or cynical if it is.
Thanks for all you do.
There're no short answers to your several questions. A better, closer observer of Turkey and Erdogan is Pepe Escobar who casted Erdogan as a wannabe Sultan at the beginning of the Outlaw US Empire's war against Syria and that descriptive term hasn't been removed, only reinforced. The very odd relationship between Turkey, NATO, Russia, and EU is also part of the political reality that shapes events. That the EU has rejected Turkey's repeated attempts to join because of Europe's longstanding hatred of Turks and Islam is at odds with Turkey's strategic role during the Cold War which aligned many Turk elites with the Atlanticist POV despite the fact that Turkey is geoeconomically dependent on Russia for energy and much more. IMO, Turkey's national interests coincide with an alliance of sorts with Russia and Eurasia as Europe has very little to offer; yet the elites still look West, not East.
The Russians are very good at discerning what constitutes a nation's interests, which helps Russia formulate its policy towards that nation. That most of Europe is going against its national interests is the major impasse between it and Russia. Turkey has opted to keep its relations with Russia primarily because it must--its dependent, knows it, and doesn't dare risk destabilizing its domestic situation by cutting off that dependency as Europe has. Russia sees all that and acts accordingly. Syria is going to remain destabilized until the Outlaw US Empire and the Zionists quit the country. Russia clearly opted not to go to war with the Empire there. I'm on record saying Idlib should have been cleared of Terrorists back in 2019. The main impediment appears to have been the Turks but now we know Assad was an unwilling partner in solving the political problem.
Eventually and possibly quite soon, NATO will cease to exist. IMO, the Turks will tell the Empire to remove its forces and leave. How that will affect relations with Greece and Cyprus are unknown. Syria's and the Kurd's disposition are also unknown. The latter will have an impact on the 3+3 situation. The Kurdish people merit a nation, and it's likely that region will remain destabilized by those seeking Kurdish statehood until they're finally granted one. And of course, the greatest sin by Erdogan is vilifying the Zionist Genocide while continuing to ship vital oil to them, which has prevented the collapse of the Zionist economy. At 70, his remaining time as Turkish president might end at the next election since health issues begin to take their toll.
It's fairly simple really. With 2 of the main supply routes, arteries, cut off in Ukraine and Germany, Turk Stream (Turkiye) remains the only 'direct' energy transfer hub for European sales.
The Power of Siberia 2 and the fledgeling Northern Sea Route will in the future accommodate Russia's total energy production/sales, think West Asia, Iran, Asia general.
Belousov was brought in for these economic realities or wars cost money pragmatism.
Regarding Ukraine's borders, Turkiye and Israel, others, have historical influence/ties and like Romania, Hungary, Poland and BLACKROCK will, like the cockroaches they are, be ready to pounce should the opportunity present itself.
Sanctioned Syria was always a hornet's nest and those who made it's overthrow possible, like Saudi, will now be having kittens watching Turkiye extend their influence in the region.
Expect twists and turn before they all come back to Daddy.
To summarize, all's fair in love and war.
Defeating US/NATO in Ukraine, expanding it's geopolitical and economic influence via BRICS+, will, in the medium and long term enable Russia to decide whether Europe is a lost cause or whether Europe can rid itself of the current whoremongers, the so-called elite, punch drunk and ruining the continent and choose to renew ties, only on less than favourable terms than previous.
What was the question again?
Quite agree.
It is clearly true that the British support of Zionism during its 'Mandate' has been the worst result of the Sykes Picot division of the region. But the French support for sectarian division in Lebanon and the creation of the Lebanese state, dominated by the French favoured Maronites, has also proved to be extremely malicious.
The Zionists feast upon the many divisions fostered by the European imperialists.
Saladin was a Kurd when he led the forces which expelled the crusaders.
Agreed. The Kurds historically were a major component of the Ottoman Empire as were the Armenians until WW1 and the Turkish Revolution that drastically changed all that.
Good to see you back commenting again. bevin!!
Erdogan has radically changed the nature of Turkish society - and plays all sides, especially on energy as he has recently also signed deals with US BigOil on LNG.
And as Lavrov, once again, strongly states [wrt Ukraine] - 'we have not changed our position'.