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arthur brogard's avatar

Totally wonderful. What inspiring reading ! Just what I wanted to hear. A Russia that is well organised, knows what it is doing, is doing the right things in the right way and plans to continue. And looks for faults and shortcomings as part of it all and addresses them when found.

You know what that is? That's intelligence. That's rationality.

Two things entirely missing in the West.

We read so much polemic, abuse and pure drivel these days that our heads get numb and I think we often don't really take anything in any more.

Take in what I just said: there is NO intelligence or rationality in the West today. That's what I said.

Polemic? Abuse? Tirade? Bluster? Nonsense?

Nope. Plain, simple, everyday, awful truth.

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richardstevenhack's avatar

"When examining the provided photos, all faces are stone-serious with not one smile to be seen."

Do Russians - other than Russian women - smile? I don't think I've ever seen Lavrov smile. Putin, yes, but then he's in charge. :-)

"In fact, this means the next stage of the Alliance's approach to our borders."

This is the important statement. The Russian know full well that Ukraine isn't the end of it. Which is precisely why they're going to do as I aver: build a "Iron Curtain 2.0" from the Black Sea to the Arctic. And that most definitely requires taking all of Ukraine right to the Polish border and installing a Military District there with everything the Russians have - essentially the same as the current Western Military District and more.

"the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have exceeded 383 thousand soldiers killed and wounded"

I suspect that is a massive understatement, deliberately so (although he does use the ambiguous "exceeded" word). If it was that small, then why haven't we seen more effective Ukraine action on the battlefield? Ukraine claims up to 1.5 million people mobilized during the war. They had at least 750,000 combat troops and territorial troops at the start. If they mobilized another 1.5 million, that's over 2 million available in total.

Even if the "logistical tail" is enormous, that should still translate into a lot of actual combat troops still available and thus we would see more effective Ukrainian action on the field. Instead, Ukraine's military is virtually paralyzed and composed of what are essentially civilians with zero training and a handful of combat troops survivors. So clearly Russia killed and wounded more than 400 hundred thousand.

Nonetheless, I'll take that figure. It's close to what most other observers estimate, except for Martyanov who claims over a million killed and wounded. It will be interesting to see if he comments on that "official" figure.

" 159 thousand soldiers killed and wounded,"

So he's claiming Russia killed almost HALF of ALL Ukrainian casualties just since June 4th? That doesn't track, either. What happened during the preceding 14 months? I know the casualty rate started trending back in fall, 2022, when the Ukrainians did their fall offensive, and it increased again during the Bakhmut conflict, but I find it hard to believe that half of Ukraine's casualties occurred in the last six months.

"Thousands of Ukrainian militants, nationalists and foreign mercenaries were killed in the rear training and reserve formation centers."

These are probably the strikes I note in my reports from the MoD reports as missile, artillery and aviation engagements. Andrei Martyanov claims those aren't counted in the totals reported by the MoD. I do count them - albeit by rough estimates - in my reports. They are significant and can conceivably significantly increase the total killed and wounded, perhaps twice what Shoigu reported.

This would explain what I perceive as the discrepancy with Shoigu's figures. I suspect Shoigu's "383,000" are merely those killed and wounded directly on the front lines.

"Every day, more than 1.5 thousand people apply for military service. This year alone, about 490,000 contract servicemen and volunteers have been recruited."

At that rate, which is over 500,000 per year, Russia will have no problem building its 2.5 million man military (including all branches) by end of this coming year. This will significantly exceed the size of China's military, and that of India, the US and North Korea.

This, too, makes it clear that Russia is building that "Iron Curtain 2.0" I referenced. Russia needs that size army to establish full Military Districts all along its western borders which extend from the Black Sea to the Arctic. Each Military District will probably require 400-500,000 troops each (all branches).

Shoigu keeps mentioning 1.5 million. In reality, it's going to be much larger than that.

That last bit about the historical portions of Ukraine is the usual Putin play on words. No one should draw a conclusion from it. It could literally mean anything and change between now and the moment when Russia controls Kiev.

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