New Iran and Outlaw US Empire Related MoA Musings

Today, Moon of Alabama had this as its lead, article—”War On Iran: – ‘New’ Iran Demands Repeat MoU Conditions”—which was also the main topic of discussion by most alt-media podcasts. What was new was the tougher rhetoric and greater detailing of what was vaguer in the MOU, such as where combat is supposed to cease—Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq. Also, as Alastair Crooke was keen to note, the Iranians are now hip to the Trump Gang’s method of market manipulation, so a tanker was attacked just prior to the 9am Eastern opening time as a reminder that Hormuz isn’t a waterway open to all traffic as Trump continues to boast. I’ve recently been looking into the levels of oil product inventories within America as reported by the Energy Information Agency (EIA) in an attempt to confirm or rebuke the idea that the Empire faces a fuel crisis when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) reaches a level beyond which no further exports can be delivered. Yes, the SPR’s been depleted to supply the Empire’s vassals with oil at the rate of roughly 4.5 million barrels per week. The SPR is not being used to keep inventory levels static because the Empire continues to import enough heavy sour crude that’s required to make jet fuel and a series of distillates. The proof is in the continually static inventories of those products despite the hefty rise in diesel and jet fuel prices—traditional gouging just as with what’s called motor gas, which is refined from the massive amounts of light sweet crude provided by fracking. What follows is what I reported based on my investigations on Sunday 9 August and several previous days:

I’m calling out Bessant’s gloating that Iran’s economy is in tatters. Iran has three main trade partners–Russia, China and Pakistan–and lesser partners in EAEU, all of which use currency swaps and systems outside Outlaw control. Iran is also self-sufficient in many goods thanks to the years of sanctions. War production and reconstruction work are employing many Iranians, while millions still find time to hit the streets to protest–and those people look well fed and healthy, not emaciated and sickly as Bessant dreams. As with Russia, sanctions have failed to cause great harm to Iran as its military abilities prove.

IMO, the current state-of-affairs regarding Hormuz can continue until 2029 and Trump’s exit, somewhat similar to the much shorter hostage issue that kept Carter from reelection. The world knows who the criminals are that started the war, and thus most back Iran’s Hormuz position. I know it’s a month away, but this year’s UNGA “Debate” session will be very hot, and I foretell Trump’s attempt to ban many nations from attending. Many continue to say SPR depletion will be the camel breaking straw, but I differ. The inventory items to watch are jet fuel and distillates, which you see have remained very steady despite the SPR’s continual drawdown. Those two products fuel the Outlaw economy along with mogas, which also remains steady because plenty of oil to make it is extracted domestically. It’s the importation of sour crude that’s required to keep the other stocks even. SPR contents are mostly being exported, not used domestically if we are to believe the oil analysts. If its drawdown continues at the recorded pace, then the current level is about 297-6 million bbl. The point is the key fuels can continue to be produced at the current level because enough sour crude is being imported. So, the importance of the SPR reaching its drawdown limit will affect those nations benefitting from its export. Thus, the “magic” that’s supposed to occur domestically won’t happen in the way many have predicted. The big hit will be felt by those nations dependent on SPR exports, with Japan, RoK and Philippines being the most vulnerable followed by EU. But IMO it’s very doubtful their pain will influence Trump. And he won’t do anything demanded by Iran because doing so is an admission of defeat and that’s something he’ll never do.

I’m sure many are perplexed by my comment since it’s contrary to the alt-media narrative saying a fuel crisis will occur within the Outlaw US Empire. I suggest looking at the history link at the right end of each inventory fuel line to see the historical levels of inventory, and to make it easy here’s jet fuel, all distillates, and 18ppm sulfur and under diesel. There’re two other types of diesel listed that are produced in much lower amounts that have also remained even in their production. Clearly, the Empire continues to import enough sour crude to refine into those key products even with Gulf exports halted. My argument is that won’t change when oil can no longer be exported from the SPR

Given what the inventories tell us, we can conclude all refiners and their distributors have colluded in raping the US public over fuel prices since there’s no discernable drop in production that would warrant higher prices. Here’s the total gasoline inventory history. The only historical inventory graph that shows a dramatic drop is the SPR. Do look at the rest of them. Average Outlaw Empire fuel prices are 30% higher now Y/Y yet there’s very little change in supply to cause such a dramatic increase.

So, why all the obfuscation? IMO, it’s the standard oil industry gouging to create excess profits by pointing to the rise in international oil prices while domestic inventories remain steady. People look at the paper price, Brent is now $81.47/bbl, and inventory levels and legitimately ask why the hell they’re paying so much for fuel. (Now $86.95) Fuel inventory levels are really of no concern compared to the paucity of standoff weapons and almost useless AD interceptors. Big Oil has long held the Duopoly by its balls, which allows it to gouge at will, although I expect fuel prices to rapidly drop as we get closer to mid-terms.

So, why is the War Criminal Trump Gang so worried about the Hormuz closure when domestic fuel amounts other than price are a non-issue? The lack of dollar recycling to fuel Outlaw Empire debt and current operations because GCC is unable to sell its products for those dollars to be recycled is the genuine issue. That continual shortfall is driving the Bond Market and potential interest rates in a critical direction that the Gang can’t really manipulate, while T-bill and other dollarized asset holder economies enter fiscal crisis and need to generate cash via selling those assets. Thus, the emergency bail-out of Japan that merely kicks the can down the road as the underlying problem remains unresolved. (Yes, the Gulf issue is big for Japan.) Iran has no problem keeping Hormuz closed for as long as it takes for the Empire to squeal its surrender. But that’s anathema for Trump. It’s been suggested that Congress needs to remove Trump so Vance can do what must be done since Trump won’t. IMO, the Bond Market holds the axe.

Guess I’m singing solo. I accessed the IEA–International Energy Agency–monthly publication, “Oil Market Report” for July (since August won’t be released until the 12th) to see what light it might shine on the inventory issue. What I read is a fantasy land report consisting of wishful thinking not hard evidence. As you’ll see, the report focuses on June’s activity, which was slightly better than the March-May period. One of the major aspects not specifically mentioned was the increase in Saudi Red Sea Exports, “Total Gulf oil exports, including volumes bypassing the Strait, surged by 6.5 mb/d in June, to 16.1 mb/d…” [My Emphasis] What’s helpful in the report are the OPEC+ crude oil production numbers, but they don’t include the amount exported. Also lacking is a quantitative listing of product inventories, although a discussion of refining activity is provided. At its conclusion is a sentence reflecting reality:

Renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf this week highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a must for the normalisation in oil markets.

No mention of market manipulation is made although the price swings were noted.

So, is a fuel crisis actually on the way, has it already happened, or is there some mixture of those two possibilities, or is something else lying in wait? I’ve provided the most current data from the two main global energy agencies. Global inventories are smaller with a few exceptions where inventories remain stable. Keen and Jermy have both provided very good analyses about how the global economy will react to a reduction in energy inputs and suggest a drop in global GDP will result, which seems very logical. What neither address is what happens to the petrodollar and the US Bond Market given the very sharp decrease in dollar recycling and related increase in bond and stock sales, plus the cessation of cash flow into US AI Corporate investment as well as the attacks and destruction of its infrastructure in the Gulf region. IMO, Professor Marandi is a good sounding board for Iranian attitudes towards the GCC states and how they should be treated over the next several months. And ultimately, IMO China’s role mustn’t be forgotten along with Russia’s in the reshaping of Gulf Region relations.

As for the Zionists, Netanyahu is clearly trying to provoke a strike by Iran through his actions on the other fronts. IMO, he will soon get his wish.

And so ended my Sunday oratory. Before moving to Monday’s, one last bit about the SPR. I suggest the very curious look at the SPR’s history as reported by Wiki. Several interesting facts are presented: The SPR was intended to hold 1 Billion Barrels of oil, just a tad less than China’s, but it never came close to being filled to the authorized level with Why? being a very valid question (just under 75% is the most it ever held.). The writer of the Wiki report makes the following gaff:

Approximately 60% of the crude oil in the reserve is the less desirable sour (high sulfur content) variety.

We know that the most crucial fuels for the economy’s smooth operation are derived from that sort of oil. 1977 was when the first oil was injected into the SPR, but there’s no publicly available data for its level prior to 1982. It also appears that no oil was drawn from the SPR during the 1979 energy crisis. Indeed, all drawdowns appear to be politically motivated not related to any emergency (Covid-era demands close examination). IMO, the 1979 crisis was industry generated and directly contributed to the ongoing economic crisis. And today, it’s clear the drawdowns aren’t being used to benefit the people who paid for the SPR to be filled just as the tariff gouging’s won’t be returned. The Seven Sisters have long been key drivers of Western Imperialism and still retain great political power.

Now for today’s musings again using the MoA article as a foil:

IMO, it’s useless for Iran to talk to the Outlaws; they only understand the language of force just like any ordinary Mafia goon. As my research into the levels of fuel stocks within the Outlaw Empire show, there’s no real danger in them running short for domestic consumption. What is running short are inflows of petrodollars into Outlaw debt and tech investment. The global fuel shortage is a much bigger problem for the Outlaw’s vassals as Japan is now revealing. The curtailing of Saudi Red Sea exports is crucial for exacerbating the fuel crisis. The idiot sanctions bill just passed by the Outlaw Senate that will sit until the House returns in September will cause great blowback resulting in further Outlaw isolation when its passed and signed before October.

Netanyahu as most know craves more war with Iran and everyone else and is predicted to launch a big attack sometime soon. I expect combat to resume, but I don’t see Iran attacking GCC assets because they’re effectively non-operational and not providing the petrodollar flow the Outlaws must have. IMO, Iran’s best move will be to support its allies by retaliating against the Zionists and the Outlaw assets now stationed in Occupied Palestine. Hormuz will remain frozen in its current status until the Outlaws relent, which could take years during which the geopolitical chessboard will be greatly rearranged with the Outlaws isolated, broke and unable to produce any modern weapons because it lacks the needed resources.

IMO, it’s well beyond the Trump Gang’s limited brain capacity to understand that every single American military asset anywhere on the planet is a legitimate target for Iran and whoever declares as an ally since that Gang started two illegal wars on Iran and has continually abetted genocide in Occupied Palestine for 50+ years making the Outlaws an enemy of all Humanity. Let that sink-in for a moment. As W Bush admonished, you’re ether an Outlaw or a member of Humanity seeking justice for many decades of criminal activity by the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals. There’s no middle ground: “You can’t be neutral on a moving train” as Zinn famously observed. There’s a very good reason they’re called Crimes Against Humanity because that’s precisely what they are. Yes, all the above is aimed at those in the pay of the Outlaws or trying somehow to say they aren’t Outlaws and are thus allied with W, Clinton, Obama, Biden, Trump, and those Outlaws that came before them and served them. Most of Congress isn’t exempt either for they are the enablers.

The above are the Truths that all too many cannot bring themselves to think, write or say. Yes, a few are coming close, but those few must become tens of millions just as angry as the millions of Iranians seeking revenge.

I’ve entertained the following notion for a month or so: Once Iran degrades the air forces of its enemies and their AD capacity, the only way to resolve the regional Zionist infestation is to march westward liberating Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan along the way while continually pummeling the Zionists with missiles and drones. Realists know if the Gulf region is to ever know peace and development, the Zionists and the Outlaws must be completely evicted, and there’s really only one way to ensure that’s done as I described. China, Russia, and others may not like that reality, but nevertheless it’s the only reality--there can be no compromises for as we’ve seen again and again, those entities are not agreement capable, have no honor, and thus their word cannot be believed for a moment.

Yes, such an undertaking risks the employment of nukes, but that risk is constant as things now stand. And as most understand, any use of nukes effectively ends the viability of any Zionist entity--the Sampson Option was always suicide for Zionists.

But what might otherwise happen once such an offensive began rolling? Might it induce a political sea change amongst Zionists who understand they’ve sinned greatly and move them to promote negotiations and thus save themselves by agreeing to a one-state solution? How might such an offensive ruffle other nations nearby like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and the GCC? What if the rallying cry was Decolonization and an end to Imperial mandated borders?

IMO, there are Iranians who’re pondering such an action. We had a Barfly--Yeah, Right if I recall correctly--who also advocated Iran using its formidable land army--and that was just after 7 October. The drawback then was the Outlaw regional military presence that’s now mostly degraded.

As I stated, I’ve pondered this notion for well over a month and am now sharing it. Yes, it goes against the Universal Soldier’s advocacy, but in this case negotiations will never alter the situation and establish a new paradigm for the reasons stated above. I know China will frown, but it must admit reality and it’s not being asked to enter combat. I see China’s hand behind the Pakistan, Saudi, Turk compact and ponder what else it’s cooking in the back kitchen. Even if China cements a Persian Gulf regional security agreement, there’s still the massive problem of Zionist and Outlaw presence in the region, and China can’t merely sweep them out of the way.

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There’s not much to add to what’s written above. The 12-Day War and what’s being called the Ramadan War were both wars of aggression—the #1 War Crime—initiated by Zionists and Outlaws in concert. Both have suffered strategic defeats which the Zionists publicly admit but Trump and his Gang continually deny. The aim of the wars was the complete destruction of the Iranian state to the point where it would become possible to replace its government and turn it into a vassal state along the lines of Iraq and Venezuela thus cementing total Outlaw Zionist control over the Persian Gulf and Levant Regions of West Asia that would guarantee the completion of the Palestinian Genocide and that of Shi’i Lebanese at a minimum, while the Greater Israel project promised many more would fall victim to the Zionists and their Outlaw allies. That’s what Iran and the Arc of Resistance confront as does all of Humanity. Yes, it’s a horror much like the Nazis perpetrated during WW2. Recently on 6 August a photo comparison was made between Gaza and Hiroshima. Yes, it was hard to tell the difference in the level of destruction. Some have termed that slow-motion nuking.

Geopolitically, the threads of almost all conflicts are tied to the Outlaw’s attempt to retain global hegemony/primacy by denying the advancement of China and Russia in Eurasia and Africa. (All the terror and conflicts you hear about happening in Africa are generated by the Outlaw US Empire’s Terrorist Foreign Legion.) China’s strategy to curtail the Empire has been long in the making—its entire rare earth monopoly is one component that is now showing excellent results as the Empire cannot replace the weapons it’s used in its loss and Europe can’t help either. The financial power of China and Russia is now coming into play as the new international financial system comes online bypassing dollarized choke points that enforce illegal sanctions. The starvation of Wall Street, the Fed and the US Treasury of petrodollar returns is having an impact as Bessant proved by having to use euros instead of dollars to bail-out Japan’s yen crisis, a move that resolved nothing. Undermining Outlaw financial power removes its last major coercive tool now that its munitions are essentially gone and a large portion of the US Navy are close to mutiny. Delivering a financial coup de grace will take close coordination of the Global Majority since it involves the repudiation of dollarized debt as odious. I don’t see that happening until 2027. But plenty will happen in the 4+ months remaining in 2026.

I’ll conclude by promoting Kevin Walmsley’s Inside China/Business substack where he posts a short usually 15-minute solo podcast along with the complete transcript that includes charts and cited articles on what’s usually a trending topic. I’m sure many already know about him, but I’m sure there are some who don’t.

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