The Future of Warfare is Coming Faster Than Most Think

After presenting awards to meritorious Russians on Russia Day as is the tradition, President Putin held a roundtable discussion with soldiers serving in the SMO on the front lines mostly in assault groups. Putin wanted to know what they need most to enhance their work. Most were sergeants and a few lieutenants, but no upper-level officers since Putin wanted to hear what the men on the line had to say. Guards Sergeant Denis Sviridov Valentinovich, Hero of the Russian Federation, is one such soldier who encapsulated the issue:

Over the past more than four years, the nature of war has changed dramatically. She has become more technologically advanced, deadly. I ask you to appeal to our industry, science, civil society, to unite all efforts and give us the best weapons to achieve military-technical superiority over the enemy. I am confident that under your leadership our united multinational people, our united great Russia, our truth, our powerful army will very harshly disappoint enemies.

The completed Russian transcript is linked to above, while the English transcript is here. At the SMO’s outset, the issue of UAVs, now all known as drones regardless of size or mission type, and their development was seen as a major factor—which side could out teach the other was seen as strategically important and tactically critical. Some have followed this issue more closely than others. Most of the discussion by the soldiers centered on that issue, although other important issues were aired. Clearly, however, the drone tech race issue was the most important and concerning. The following is a good example of the tech-side of the discussion:

Guards Lieutenant Maxim Stepanenko, assault platoon commander, assault company, Motor Rifle Battalion, 137^th Ural Separate Assault Brigade, sir.

I have several questions. How soon can we ensure a mass supply of UAVs similar to the fibre-optic drones with artificial intelligence that the enemy is using? Is it possible to centralise the industrial production of hand-held, pistol-type net launchers and supply them to the troops to destroy enemy FPV drones operating via fibre optics?

To destroy enemy UAVs, we need pellet-firing cartridges not only for smoothbore weapons but also for 5.45mm automatic weapons. Can these be factory-produced?

For rapid, silent, and stealthy movement to the enemy’s front lines, an assault trooper needs various types of electric vehicles: scooters, kick-scooters, ATVs, and motorcycles. Can this problem be solved within the framework of the state defence order?

You’ll encounter many more when reading the transcript. The nuances show the intricacy of today’s Arms Race and point to what we’ll see in the near future.

Iran fields numerous drone types, besides UAVs, submersible drones that are essentially loitering torpedoes have yet to be used in defense of the Hormuz Strait, and most are aware of surface drones—unmanned boats or personal watercraft—that are employed by most advanced navies. Science fiction writers have produced some very interesting concepts. This one is almost thirty years old—Droideka:

One advantage of science fiction is you don’t need to explain how something is capable of performing as shown whereas the real world has such limitations. One very important advance which was alluded to in Putin’s chat is in protective gear for soldiers which gets heavier and adds to the overall combat load soldiers have to bear. So, what we see coming are exoskeletons along the lines of Tony Stark’s Iron Man suit:

Clearly a power source needs to be incorporated to help the soldier move, so such systems will remain concepts. Other body armor suits are being produced that aren’t nearly as heavy thanks to advances in materials science. Protection against bullets is becoming excellent, but most combat injuries are due to artillery, aerial bombs, and drone attacks all of which are explosive in nature and rend the human body. One of the soldiers expressed the issue of many of his mates having “severe, crippling wounds” caused by those munitions where arms and legs are mangled or worse that bulletproof vests can’t mitigate, and frankly IMO the body armor I’ve seen won’t do the job either. The robo-soldier depicted above is unlikely to survive a close hit by an artillery round, aerial bomb or MLRS rocket. Most drones no longer drop grenades but aim to directly impact soldiers. IMO, the only way to protect soldiers is for them to have some form of force field capable of deflecting explosive forces, and of course that will need a power source attached to the soldier.

I’m a former soldier so I think about the transformation of how combat is conducted, and of course war impacts geopolitics, so these changes need to be known by anyone aspiring to be an astute geopolitical analyst. Netcentric combat is now a reality for those militaries that can afford to manufacture its components and deploy it. New types of radar capable of penetrating the walls of modern buildings mean there’s no longer cover inside. Infrared sees through trees and into ground, so there’s no cover there either. Some fabrics do hide your heat signature rendering a soldier invisible to those sensors. And crazy modifications are made to tanks and other vehicles to protect them from multiple drone strikes":

These are called turtle or barn tanks. There are reports of some absorbing several dozen drone strikes. Often these are equipped with mine clearing attachments and lead the assault column. This video was published in May 2024 and is quite informative. Soon a purpose built anti-drone vehicle will be produced, not just ones fitted with “cope cages” that aren’t very effective.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles or very large airplane-sized drones are already in service, but what has yet to appear are UAV fighter jets that would likely be termed Seventh Generation. These UAVs would be capable of performing aerobatic maneuvers that generate G-forces beyond the ability of a human to withstand, with some perhaps being capable of hypersonic performance:

China’s WZ8 hypersonic drone.

Russian PAK-DA Hypersonic bomber.

Russian Mig-41

Hypersonic is defined as speeds in excess of Mach-5. No current combat aircraft has a speed exceeding Mach-3. You’ll also note the Russian planes have cockpits which signal they aren’t designed for ultra-high G-force moves unlike the Chinese drone at the top. Since the German hypersonic jet program during WW2, hypersonic airplanes and missiles have been the top goals of design bureaus and remain so. The only things faster are lasers and electromagnetic devices, with the former now being used as combat weapons. Blasters, Phasers, and other beam or element type weapons will remain in the realm of Sci-fi for the foreseeable future, although sonic weapons are used for crowd control and might become actual weapons. Microwave weapons also are possible, so there are some exceptions.

Most futuristic weapons will need new materials and energy sources. And most such thigs utilize rare earth metals in their alloys or other key parts. So, supply chains will become even more critical in the future if hegemons continue to insist upon their existence. It would be great if wise minds would rise to leadership positions and see all the folly and waste that goes into the overall Arms Race and the conflict it enables. I’m sure those who might become tomorrow’s soldiers will be very thankful for that to occur.

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