"We go our own way: Russian Foreign Policy as a Cultural Phenomenon" and "From globalization to protectionism: A paradigm shift without a declaration of war"
Thank you for digging up and highlighting important primary sources such as these!!! The value of your contribution to civilization in this regard is high and incomparable.
I really like these posts — thank you, Karl. For me (from the comment on the first article), this is really important. We have to hope! — “Law isn’t dependent on power, …. Law is superior to Might Makes Right”.
That was shown again in the statement from this meeting: China, Japan, S.Korea, and ASEAN countries call for enhanced regional unity and cooperation, sounding alarm over rising protectionism: Additionally, the statement also highlighted that "amid rising uncertainties and long-term structural shifts, we reaffirm our full commitment to multilateralism, and a rules-based, non-discriminatory, free, fair, open, inclusive, equitable, and transparent multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core." https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202505/1333352.shtml
My biggest disagreement with the two essays is , what appears to be, an assumption of equal competence by the various parties. I don't believe this to be the case, with the US falling far behind. This points to the most dangerous aspect of managing the decline of the US empire.
Yes, errors are made in assumptions by all, but IMO the Russians make fewer errors. I have another essay by Bordachev published just a few days later that shows the uncertainty of his analysis, which I see as a youthful error, and is a reason why he has his current position and isn’t in the government.
The USSA is as far from self sufficient as a country can get. The civil war will start when the economy crashes, thanks to Trumps tariffs and the city dwellers head to the rural areas looking for food. Sound far fetched? Don't bet on it.
Running cloud services requires a reliable energy supply, ditto keeping food storage systems running. The failure of both is catastrophic, so it's not far fetched to see civil disorder, but the civil war is going to be a result of a total rupture within the US elites.
Remember the seventies and the 3 day work week in the UK? Techlead suggested that iPhone costs will go up to something like $3000, completely off the table. It’s clear you can’t invest when you have daily changes to tariffs, or other costs; something you’d see with hyperinflation. There isn’t a rug big enough to sweep all the downside under. I know, Super Trump will push the problems into the galactic black hole at the back door of the restaurant at the end of universe.
There are few things worse for the economy than uncertainty, and when the idiots in control are a bunch of psychos, things can go upside down really fast.
I thought about translating this article about the Empire’s nutso proposed method to revive US shipbuilding that’s met with very heavy resistance for excellent reasons. Heavy competition for article choices today, so I might abridge and include it with some other Chinese items. It’s many tables make it long and they are very difficult to reproduce, but they read well translated in place, https://www.guancha.cn/Sukui/2025_05_06_774691_s.shtml
I agree with your assessment WRT to Trump's pacificism; on reading "In fact, this is all about Trump's pacifism: he excludes the option of war." My immediate thought was 'it's all about Trump's deviousness'. In his case it's probably a consequence of basic personality flaws that often accompany privileged lifestyles and in his case a legal system that favours the rich over the less rich with regard to 'costs', which encourages ignorant bullies like the don.
On an historical note, the stated duration of the 'Mongol Yoke' of 250 years plus the 50 years of reconquest seems to reflect Turchin's theory inasmuch as the Golden Horde's elite, for one reason or another, probably became increasingly decadent over that time so as to become less able to maintain 'legitimate authority' in the mind's of their populations. So that the masses were less motivated to defend that system from attack.
I don't agree precisely with Turchin's reasoning but as a generalised starting point of trying to make sense of the current non-sense its as good a place to start as any. Hopefully the vampire ballroom dancers will join the golden horde in the exit lobby of history before too long.
The Mongols were assimilated by most of the societies they invaded. What I've always found historically unfortunate was their inability to reach the Atlantic & Mediterranean Oceans. The Mongols sacking the Vatican would have altered history dramatically.
Honestly, I think Trump is nothing more than a convenience for the ruling class. He does and says, everything they think, that they want to do, and blame it on him if it all goes pear-shaped or reap any praise if it works out (unlikely). Why else back an ignorant, arrogant, pig of a man that none of the pundits will acknowlege for fear of being outed as opportunist hypocrites. It's like a sadistic, Feydeau farce.
I turn 70 this year, and I’m very tired of the same old shit. someone elsewhere opined “They might change the method or the targeted proxies, but it's just remixing the same old tune (As if Cher was doing politics.)” And while my understanding of how we arrived at our current state of affairs continues to grow, an exit seems ever more elusive and combines to increase my cynicism.
Hey, I turn 80 in a couple of months and a 3rd gen Red, with Bolshevik grandparents, I had hoped I'd see some real progression but I still live in hope, in spite gangster Trump.
Thank you for digging up and highlighting important primary sources such as these!!! The value of your contribution to civilization in this regard is high and incomparable.
Thanks, David! There’re always more in the queue than I have time to disseminate.
Fascinating essays Karl, thanks for sharing them.
I really like these posts — thank you, Karl. For me (from the comment on the first article), this is really important. We have to hope! — “Law isn’t dependent on power, …. Law is superior to Might Makes Right”.
That was shown again in the statement from this meeting: China, Japan, S.Korea, and ASEAN countries call for enhanced regional unity and cooperation, sounding alarm over rising protectionism: Additionally, the statement also highlighted that "amid rising uncertainties and long-term structural shifts, we reaffirm our full commitment to multilateralism, and a rules-based, non-discriminatory, free, fair, open, inclusive, equitable, and transparent multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core." https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202505/1333352.shtml
My biggest disagreement with the two essays is , what appears to be, an assumption of equal competence by the various parties. I don't believe this to be the case, with the US falling far behind. This points to the most dangerous aspect of managing the decline of the US empire.
Yes, errors are made in assumptions by all, but IMO the Russians make fewer errors. I have another essay by Bordachev published just a few days later that shows the uncertainty of his analysis, which I see as a youthful error, and is a reason why he has his current position and isn’t in the government.
The USSA is as far from self sufficient as a country can get. The civil war will start when the economy crashes, thanks to Trumps tariffs and the city dwellers head to the rural areas looking for food. Sound far fetched? Don't bet on it.
Running cloud services requires a reliable energy supply, ditto keeping food storage systems running. The failure of both is catastrophic, so it's not far fetched to see civil disorder, but the civil war is going to be a result of a total rupture within the US elites.
Check this out, https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1918658473807532439
Remember the seventies and the 3 day work week in the UK? Techlead suggested that iPhone costs will go up to something like $3000, completely off the table. It’s clear you can’t invest when you have daily changes to tariffs, or other costs; something you’d see with hyperinflation. There isn’t a rug big enough to sweep all the downside under. I know, Super Trump will push the problems into the galactic black hole at the back door of the restaurant at the end of universe.
There are few things worse for the economy than uncertainty, and when the idiots in control are a bunch of psychos, things can go upside down really fast.
I thought about translating this article about the Empire’s nutso proposed method to revive US shipbuilding that’s met with very heavy resistance for excellent reasons. Heavy competition for article choices today, so I might abridge and include it with some other Chinese items. It’s many tables make it long and they are very difficult to reproduce, but they read well translated in place, https://www.guancha.cn/Sukui/2025_05_06_774691_s.shtml
This article just nails it. "Jealousy and hatred"
What a judgement to be leveled against a country! The USSA should be ashamed, but it's run by narcissist's that have no self awareness.
It must simply crash and rise from the ashes if it ever can, otherwise there is no hope for the empire of lies.
I agree with your assessment WRT to Trump's pacificism; on reading "In fact, this is all about Trump's pacifism: he excludes the option of war." My immediate thought was 'it's all about Trump's deviousness'. In his case it's probably a consequence of basic personality flaws that often accompany privileged lifestyles and in his case a legal system that favours the rich over the less rich with regard to 'costs', which encourages ignorant bullies like the don.
On an historical note, the stated duration of the 'Mongol Yoke' of 250 years plus the 50 years of reconquest seems to reflect Turchin's theory inasmuch as the Golden Horde's elite, for one reason or another, probably became increasingly decadent over that time so as to become less able to maintain 'legitimate authority' in the mind's of their populations. So that the masses were less motivated to defend that system from attack.
I don't agree precisely with Turchin's reasoning but as a generalised starting point of trying to make sense of the current non-sense its as good a place to start as any. Hopefully the vampire ballroom dancers will join the golden horde in the exit lobby of history before too long.
The Mongols were assimilated by most of the societies they invaded. What I've always found historically unfortunate was their inability to reach the Atlantic & Mediterranean Oceans. The Mongols sacking the Vatican would have altered history dramatically.
Pacificism? How about Trump's stupidity, arrogance and narcissism and the hubris of the US' ruling class? Trump fits perfectly as a fall guy.
Yes, Trump is an Imperialist of the worst sort.
Honestly, I think Trump is nothing more than a convenience for the ruling class. He does and says, everything they think, that they want to do, and blame it on him if it all goes pear-shaped or reap any praise if it works out (unlikely). Why else back an ignorant, arrogant, pig of a man that none of the pundits will acknowlege for fear of being outed as opportunist hypocrites. It's like a sadistic, Feydeau farce.
I turn 70 this year, and I’m very tired of the same old shit. someone elsewhere opined “They might change the method or the targeted proxies, but it's just remixing the same old tune (As if Cher was doing politics.)” And while my understanding of how we arrived at our current state of affairs continues to grow, an exit seems ever more elusive and combines to increase my cynicism.
Hey, I turn 80 in a couple of months and a 3rd gen Red, with Bolshevik grandparents, I had hoped I'd see some real progression but I still live in hope, in spite gangster Trump.
BTW, today, 5 May, is Karl Marx's birthday!