Why EU Persists in War It's Lost

Hat tip to Pepe Escobar

Why is the EU being seemingly insane to pursue a war that is clearly decidedly lost, a destiny it has no ability to alter now that the conflict’s #1 instigator is calling it quits, since for the Outlaw US Empire to continue would mean the need to confront Russia directly with forces and arms proven incapable of doing the job? We know the EU was told to “Fuck Off!” by Nuland just before the coup, but European actors still had a role to play, and they did so in their refusal to honor he deal signed by them 24 hours before. Then of course we had major EU actors again refusing to honor international law with the Minsk Agreements, the plan to agree then to dishonor was confessed which cost the lives of thousands. We well know the Outlaw US Empire’s role, but what of the EU? Did it have its own plan while sharing the Outlaw US Empire’s goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia? I his SCF article today, ‘Baltic/Black Sea power games and red lines intersect in a “strange war.”’ Pepe Escobar provides his hypothesis based on his own investigations plus a critical article by Ilya Fabrichnikov, a member of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, that he says is a shortened version of the original which he didn’t link to and I couldn’t find. However, that shortened version was linked, “Make Europe Great Again,” published by Kommersant on 20 February, which is in Russian naturally. I won’t reproduce Pepe’s essay, but what follows in the translation of Ilya’s article:

Ilya Fabrichnikov on why the turn in American policy is not accompanied by the same turn in European policy

The other day, the EU member states announced the approval of the next, already the 16th package of economic sanctions against Russia. And this is against the background of negotiations between the delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States, which took place in a fairly constructive atmosphere, where the restoration of economic ties between the two countries was discussed, among other things.

It would seem, wasn’t that a reason for the European Union to reduce the degree of frenzy? After all, for many years it was believed that Brussels was a branch of Washington, obediently following in the wake of the White House's policy. Many believed, it may understand that its economic (and political) well-being largely depends on the supply of hydrocarbons from Russia and, in general, on cooperation with Moscow, with which it would like to be close friends. But allied obligations are pressing, NATO discipline does not give, overseas liberal-Atlanticists are in the way. And here is such a chance: the new US administration directly declares that it wants to end the conflict with Russia, that it now has no time for Europe at all. Does this mean that it is possible to break with the disastrous policy imposed from the outside? Sure. But what if these policies were not imposed from the outside?

What if the European Union is quite sovereign in its actions? And within the framework of this sovereignty, it sincerely considered and continues to consider the confrontation with Russia in Ukraine as its historical chance? [Emphasis Original]

No, not to get their hands on the abundant Ukrainian rare earth metals (which, most likely, are not there suitable for profitable extraction), not to gain access to fertile black soil, not to pick up a market of 45 million souls for themselves. Namely, to move their borders along with their military-political and economic infrastructure close to the Russian ones, to put under full control the strategic Black Sea trade corridor—which easily stretches further, to the north, along the Odessa-Gdansk route—in order to more conveniently and quickly develop the economic spaces of Asia and North Africa, to begin to dictate to Russia their terms for the supply of oil, gas and other resources needed in the European economy.

In short, Make Europe Great Again. As it was in the golden times of the late 80s, 90s and early noughties, which saw the heyday of European economic power, propped up on the one hand by cheap Russian energy carriers, on the other by the flow of Chinese-made consumer goods, and on the third by the "umbrella" of Article 5 of the NATO charter, supported by the military power of the American contingent.

Excellent initial conditions for establishing itself as the largest continental center of power in the era of transformation of the system of international relations. To become, so to speak, a "supervisor of Eurasia." [Emphasis Original]

That is probably why we are now witnessing both Europe's confusion at the unexpected U-turn of its overseas partner and the same European frenzy: "This is not the time for peace! More sanctions! More money for Kyiv!" And it is unlikely that this would be the case if the EU had not relied on the "strategic defeat of Russia".

That is why, apparently, the European collective of like-minded people is now confused: it is one thing to solve one's existential issues under the guise of a powerful military ally, which has bayonets, ships, and reconnaissance satellites. And it is quite another to do all this on one's own and at one's own expense. [My Emphasis]

That also explains the UK’s deep involvement in all Black Sea military operations. As expected, the UK got nothing from Trump during Starmer’s visit. Alex Krainer continues to report on the dire state of affairs within the UK, how it’s truly becoming an Orwellian dystopia. Barely mentioned by Pepe is he Baltic Sea gambit being attempted by some of the NATO states, which will very likely be joined by Germany now that Merz will become the presumed Chancellor. Hudson and Wolff had an excellent recap of the German election along with other excellent insights. I’ve seen no reports about what transpired in the Russian-Empire talks in Istanbul that were again just about the restoration of relations and nothing more. As for the carrots waved by Putin that Pepe describes in his own manner, I rather doubt much will happen regarding them as so many sanctions and other things must be unwound first along with the all too longstanding Cold War mantra present within the West.

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