Additional Events in Russia Then Crooke

Putin and Rudenko Crooke connects dots.

As noted at the end of the previous report, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Rudenko subbed for Lavrov at the Russia and ASEAN in the Asia-Pacific Conference being held in Moscow this week. His remarks will be provided first then Putin’s meeting on operational matters will follow, the read-out being short but info-dense. Then we’ll get to Crooke’s dot connecting essay as he pans back to see the Big Picture and how it’s progressed since WW2.

And now here’s Rudenko:

Dear colleagues and friends!

I am glad to welcome you to the conference on cooperation between Russia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. I would like to express my gratitude to the University and the ASEAN Centre at MGIMO for organizing a discussion on this topic, which is especially relevant in the current geopolitical situation.

Relations with ASEAN are among the foreign policy priorities of our country, enshrined in the recently updated Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. This year we celebrate an important date – the 5th anniversary of the strategic partnership with the Association. At the same time, the history of our relations goes back more than three decades.

For more than half a century since its founding, ASEAN has gained a reputation as an authoritative multilateral association and has established itself as one of the centres of the emerging multipolar world order and the core of regional integration processes. We share the commitment of the G10 to the principles of equal interaction and harmonious coexistence of all members of the international community, regardless of differences in the state structure or economic structure.

It is extremely important that the Association, despite the most powerful pressure, refuses to follow the logic of bloc confrontation, remaining at the center of an inclusive, balanced and transparent architecture. But that is precisely why it and the mechanisms of regional cooperation it has created are now under serious attack from those who have undertaken to reformat Asia.

The project of the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific region", which was launched several years ago at the instigation of the United States, Japan and Australia, is being implemented in practice by imposing a rigid system of bloc deterrence and establishing NATO's military-strategic potential in the Asia-Pacific region with the support of Asian allies. A dangerous trend is the expansion of the range of confrontationally charged blocks, including Quad (USA, Japan, Australia, India) and AUCUS (USA, Great Britain, Australia) with its nuclear component, as well as their derivatives. Individual ASEAN members are being drawn to such minilateral constructions. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the situation around Myanmar are used for this purpose. But attempts to divide the Association only play into the hands of those who seek to undermine its relevance and authority.

Russia does not accept such a destructive paradigm and stands for open, mutually beneficial, non-bloc cooperation and the deepening of integration processes in our common Asian home. In the activities of ASEAN-centric platforms, we uphold the principles of equality and consensus, which make it possible to hear the voice of each participant and maintain an atmosphere of effective practical interaction.

We see encouraging prospects for aligning the potentials of ASEAN with the SCO, which are solving similar creative tasks for the development of the region. We note with satisfaction the progressive expansion of cooperation between ASEAN and the EAEU, which has a trade and liberalisation component. The Union's work with Indonesia to conclude a free trade agreement is progressing at a good pace, following Vietnam (2015) and Singapore (2019). Intensive contacts are maintained between the Eurasian Economic Commission and the Secretariat of the Association. In particular, the idea of holding the EAEU Days at its site in Jakarta is now being discussed.

We see a similar constructive attitude among our ASEAN partners with regard to BRICS, which will be chaired by Russia next year. With the addition of new members, the number of members reached eleven. The same number will be in the Association after the accession of East Timor.

Today, the Russia-ASEAN dialogue is a significant factor in strengthening security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. This was once again confirmed in the July statement by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the 5 on the occasion of the <>th anniversary of our strategic partnership.

We approached the anniversary with good results. A solid legal framework and an extensive network of cooperation mechanisms make it possible to successfully solve the main tasks set by the leaders in 2021 in the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan. The development of a trust-based conversation on the most sensitive global and regional issues is facilitated by the new channels established in 2021 – consultations of high representatives in charge of security issues and a dialogue on the security of information and communication technologies.

We strive to build up trade and economic ties with the countries of the Association. Unfortunately, their performance was negatively affected by the consequences of the pandemic and illegitimate Western sanctions against our country. Economic agencies are working to rectify the situation, and in August this year they held regular ministerial consultations in Semarang, Indonesia. On the agenda is the use of national currencies in mutual settlements, which is also very relevant for ASEAN, which adopted a special declaration on this matter at the summit in May this year.

Russia has a unique resource potential, and we could share it with Southeast Asia, especially when it comes to ensuring regional food and energy security. These problems have come to the fore given the difficult situation in the global economy, provoked by the fundamental miscalculations of the West in recent years, as well as the unprecedented bacchanalia of sanctions.

Our country is a responsible supplier of agricultural products and fertilizers, and goods of this group are mainly sent to the countries of Asia (60%) and Africa (30%). Our efforts to increase exports, despite discriminatory restrictions by the US and the EU, are having a positive impact on global markets. We are ready to consider the necessary additional measures on this track within the framework of the Russia-ASEAN Annual Senior Officials' Meetings (SAOs) on agriculture.

The impetus for energy cooperation was given by the profile work plan adopted in June this year, which pays significant attention to renewable, nuclear and low-carbon energy. A substantive discussion of practical steps to implement it was held in Indonesia in August this year on the sidelines of the meeting of energy ministers of the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Energy Business Forum. Another convenient platform for contacts is the annual Russian Energy Week, which is currently taking place in Moscow, which for the second year in a row is attended by the leadership of the ASEAN Energy Centre, as well as representatives of interested ministries and the expert community of the ASEAN member states.

Our country is one of the top ten countries in terms of digitalization of public administration, scientific and inventive achievements in robotics, quantum technologies and artificial intelligence. We shared our best practices with the top ten during the 2022 Russia-ASEAN Year of Scientific and Technical Cooperation. An important event was the first meeting of ministers in charge of science and technology, which ended in February this year.

We believe that the Russian-ASEAN expert consultations in this area held in Hanoi in June this year are a good basis for launching a dialogue on digital transformation. We would like to put them on a permanent basis. Another promising area is the convergence of efforts in the development of smart cities. Among the specific pilot initiatives is the Russian-ASEAN thematic conference, which will be held next week as part of the III International Construction Championship in St. Petersburg.

We see the demand for domestic experience in the field of education. For many years, Russia has been implementing a number of personnel training projects for ASEAN, including annual trainings for the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia and the Federal Security Service of Russia, training of epidemiologists on the basis of specialized institutes of Rospotrebnadzor, and Russian language courses for ASEAN tour operators. The Russian Energy Agency has started the practice of conducting advanced training courses on alternative energy sources and global carbon neutrality. I would like to make a special mention of the MGIMO Master's programme 'Political Economy of the Russia-ASEAN Strategic Partnership', which was launched this year. I am glad that the students studying at this conference are taking an active part in it.

We consider the idea of combining all our initiatives in the field of vocational education into a comprehensive interdisciplinary initiative – the ASEAN Personnel Education and Training Initiative (APETI), gradually adding new directions to it – to be fruitful.

MGIMO and the ASEAN Centre established on its basis make a significant contribution to the promotion of humanitarian ties with the G10. With their active assistance, the Russia-ASEAN Research Centres Network, the main expert platform for dialogue with the Association, which held a regular meeting here at the beginning of this week, is functioning. We highly appreciate this work, which contributes to the development of people-to-people contacts and the improvement of mutual understanding between the peoples of our countries. In determining further ways to develop cooperation with the G10, we largely rely on the opinion of experts, their assessments and forecasts.

To sum up, I would like to say with confidence that the Russia-ASEAN strategic partnership has good prospects. I wish the participants of the conference effective and fruitful work.

Thank you for your attention.

Putin’s meeting on the important topics of Ukraine and Palestine follow:

Vladimir Putin: Dear colleagues, good afternoon!

We will discuss two issues.

The first is the situation in the free trade zone. I will ask the Minister of Defense to speak very briefly about this – here is what is happening now, at this moment in time.

The second is the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, the situation in Gaza. I have already had a number of conversations with colleagues from the region, and several more conversations are scheduled before the end of the day.

Please, let's get started.

Sergey Kuzhugetovich, please.

Sergei Shoigu: Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, colleagues,

What is happening today in the zone of a special military operation is naturally characterized by such things as the enemy's attempts to conduct offensive actions in different directions. In almost all directions, they face our active defense. I would like to note that we are improving our tactical position in many areas. In fact, no promotion is allowed anywhere.

The spring offensive campaign was completed, as planned by the Ukrainian authorities, the summer campaign, and now the autumn campaign-and none of these campaigns achieved any significant success. In some areas along the entire line – where we see special activity today – a fairly deep, deeply echeloned defense has been built. It can now be called an active defense, because after the start of the summer campaign on June 4, the enemy suffered, if not significant, then large, serious losses in manpower and equipment - hundreds of tanks, more than a thousand, almost one and a half thousand armored vehicles-and they continue to do this.

Naturally, today we continue to take the same active actions in those areas where we consider it necessary to improve our situation.

Overall, the situation looks stable and confident. The troops are very, very professional, showing heroism in many areas, and they are confident that they will not only hold their positions, but also, of course, continue to implement the plans that we have outlined.

Vladimir Putin: Good.

Sergey Alekseyevich, the opinion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Special Services, Foreign Intelligence and all colleagues gathered here is important to me.

Taking into account the developing situation, taking into account the fact that there are many of our citizens in the conflict zone, both on the one hand and on the other, and the civilian population is suffering, there are questions of humanitarian assistance in the region to all those who need it.

Therefore, in the run-up to these telephone conversations, and in general in order to develop a common position in this area, I would like to ask you to first give a general assessment of how the Foreign Ministry views the situation, and then we will discuss both the first and second issues in more detail.

Sergey Alekseevich, please.

Sergey Ryabkov: Thank you.

Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, dear participants of the meeting,

According to our assessment, the situation in the conflict zone in the Middle East tends to worsen. The operations carried out by the Israeli army are indiscriminate. The threat of a ground operation and entry into Gaza remains. The territory of this enclave and the residents there are in fact in a state of humanitarian catastrophe. Neither medical care is provided, nor other primary needs are met. All this is causing great concern in the world.

The Russian Federation is making maximum efforts in the political sphere – as you have just mentioned – including through the UN Security Council, where we have submitted a draft resolution focused on humanitarian issues. The United States, which is primarily responsible for this dramatic and serious crisis, as this country has been trying for many years to monopolize the settlement process and ignore relevant relevant Security Council resolutions, is now hindering a proper solution.

Diplomatic activity is growing along various lines. In principle, the threat of getting out of control of this whole conflict is high. We will make every effort in cooperation with partners and like-minded people in the political sphere to stop the current situation and create conditions, including guaranteeing the departure of our citizens from the risk zone, from the threatened zone. The corresponding work is being carried out through the embassies and our representative office in the Palestinian National Authority, through the consular services – the Department of the Situation and Crisis Center [is] in cooperation with all departments.

Thank you.

Vladimir Putin: Good. Thank you very much.

It should be clear why this read-out was provided as the Outlaw US Empire is behaving as expected at the UN padding the way for the Zionist Genocide.

And now for Crooke’s SCF essay showing his wisdom, insight and grasp of a historical direction that isn’t well recognized in the West because of its own propaganda and inability to think deeply, and as Crooke has said recently—its inability to empathize.

I wrote last week that the root to the current U.S. conflict with Russia was the omission, at the end of WW2, of a written treaty setting out the boundary and definition of western ‘interests’, and pari passu, those of Russia cum China’s security and commercial interests in the Asian Heartland.

Everything was left vague and unwritten in the post-Cold war euphoria -so as to give the U.S. room to manoeuvre – which it took ‘in spades’. It manoeuvred to remilitarise Germany and to march NATO ever forward towards, and into, the heartland. As many had warned, this U.S. approach ultimately would mean war.

And sure enough, asymmetric ‘war fronts’ have been opened horizontally across many spheres with Russia’s Special Operation in Ukraine. Though ostensibly focussed on stymieing NATO’s stealth absorption of Ukraine, it also opened Russia’s main front – that of containing the NATO debouchment from penetrating further.

Today, all eyes are focussed on the widening ‘war’ in the Middle East. Many questions are asked, but the principal one is ‘Why?’

Here, we find the issues are eerily similar. At the end of WW2, the West wanted its European Jews to have a ‘homeland’, and so in 1947, Palestine was peremptorily divided between Jews and Arabs.

The predominant narrative in the West has been that the travails and wars that segued from that event – particularly today’s confrontation in Israel/Palestine – result simply from Arab States’ perverse inability to come to terms with the existence of the State of Israel. Many in the West see this as irrational at the least – or as a fundamental cultural flaw, at worst.

Well, as was the case in respect to the European post-war military situation, nothing was formally agreed in respect to Jews and Arabs living on the one plot of land. The 1993 Oslo Accords were an attempt at some agreement, but again everything was vague, and the crucially master security ‘key’ to the whole Accord rested wholly at the discretion of the Israelis.

Plainly, this was intended to give Israel maximum room for manoeuvre. More than that, it was intended that Israel should have the strategic ‘edge’ – not just the political ‘edge’, but the U.S. had pledged to ensure that Israel would have the military ‘edge’ over its neighbours too.

Put bluntly, the objective of bringing Arab States to accept Israel’s presence was never pursued, or else it was compelled by military and financial measures (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran). Except in the case of Egypt, through returning the Sanai to Cairo. The current iteration of the ‘Abraham normalisation’ (coming to terms with Israel) however, effectively throws the Palestinians ‘under the bus’ for the sake of Saudi compliance to normalization.

Just as NATO surging forward was intended to put Asia under the U.S. sway, so Greater Israeli’s cultural hegemony in the Middle East – it was believed in U.S. Beltway circles – would place the Middle East under western sway also.

What lies behind the present outpouring of Palestinian violent resistance is precisely rooted in a converse understanding to that held in the Beltway.

The converse ‘reality’ is that, over the last decade, Israel has been departing further and further away from the foundations on which any sustainable regional peace might have been built. Israel, perversely, has been moving in the opposite direction – striking down the pillars by which a regional rapprochement might have been possible.

Netanyahu, over the last decade, has taken the Israeli electorate far to the Right, leveraging Iran as the Phantasm by which to frighten the public. (It was not always like that: After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Israel had allied with Iran, against the Arab ‘near neighbourhood’).

Netanyahu also propagated ‘the message’ to his electorate that, thanks to the ‘success’ of the Abraham Accords, the world cares ‘zilch’ for the Palestinians. That they are “yesterday’s news”.

This performance has distracted the western world from understanding fully what radical ministers in Netanyahu’s government have been planning:

One key commitment of Netanyahu’s Cabinet colleagues is to build the Jewish (Third) Temple on Temple Mount, where al-Aqsa Mosque presently stands. Plainly put, this implies a commitment to demolish al-Aqsa and build a Judaic Temple in its stead.

The second key pledge is to found Israel on the biblical ‘Land of Israel’. Again, plainly put, this would dispossess Palestinians in the West Bank; as National Security Minister Ben Gvir made clear, they would face a choice: leave or live under subservience in a Jewish supremacist state.

The third is to institute Jewish law (Halakha) in the stead of secular law. This would divest non-Jews in Israel of their legal status.

Put together – the Judaification of al-Aqsa; the founding of the State upon the biblical ‘Land of Israel’ and the ending of secular Basic law – Palestine and the Palestinian people simply are erased. Three weeks ago, Netanyahu waved a map of Israel as he gave his address at the UN General Assembly; have a look: Gaza and the Palestinian territories do not appear on it at all. They are erased. The situation is as existential as that.

These are the stakes that ultimately underlie Hamas’ military forces’ extreme provocation into Israel. It is intended to break the paradigm (it is not a cry for some kind of return to the Oslo framework).

However, by overreacting, Netanyahu and his team may ‘pull-down the roof’ on the entire western project. Biden doesn’t seem to see the danger lurking within his own exaggeratedly enraged language, comparing Hamas to ISIS and endorsing a “swift decisive and overwhelming” response by Netanyahu. Biden said that it is his belief that Israel had not just a right, but a “duty” to strike back, adding that “the United States has Israel’s back.”

Biden may get more than what he seeks: Tragedy in the form of total retribution visited on Palestinians in Gaza. Netanyahu, trapped by the dynamics of his own fear and vulnerability, acts the part of Dionysus, the God of Excess. And Biden eggs him on.

Just as Team Biden exposed America and NATO to humiliation in Ukraine, so Team Biden seems unable to imagine what might follow from the humiliation of Israel, through its avenging of itself on Gaza. Ukraine brought grave financial corollaries to Europe. In Israel, its intelligence and military structure just imploded. Imagine if the political structure too, becomes dysfunctional.

When the West looks at the situation in purely static instrumental mode (i.e. the IDF is hugely more powerful than Hamas, and therefore, Hamas is destined to be destroyed – ‘It is a matter of engineering’) – should ‘you’ take this view – maybe, you are are posing the question wrongly.

The question to be asked rather, is a dynamic one: How will this dramaturgy proceed over time? In what way might Israel’s putative Gaza war progressively shape the calculations of Hizbullah, Syria and the Muslim sphere – and open political opportunities that were hitherto unavailable.

We can see one opportunity opening directly; listen to what Pentagon spokesman John Kirby says: “On one hand, rumours suggested Biden intended to write a giant one-and-done check for $100B to wash his hands of Ukraine”, but he now very plainly states that: “You don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope”. (Russia can now bring the Ukraine episode to an early close.)

The main purpose of dramatic tragedy is to elicit the feeling of awe to the audience who sees in the tragic hero, an image of his own self. This is what is unfolding as the Islamic world watches Gaza crumble. The (‘quietist’) Grand Ayatollah Seyed al-Sistani has issued a call for the “whole world to stand up to this terrible brutality”. Will the West Bank now erupt? Will the Palestinians living inside the Green Line rise up?

If Israeli forces invade Gaza, it could easily turn into Bakhmut/Artyemovsk – a searing meat-grinder.

Hizbullah is slow-cooking the northern front – carefully, though. Will it be the U.S. this time that overreacts (as in 1983 when the USS New Jersey shelled Druze positions in Lebanon)? Recall how that ended – with the complete destruction of the U.S. embassy, and the separate razing of the Marine barracks, killing 241 U.S. service members. Today, the USS Gerald Ford Strike Group is off Lebanon, ready ‘to deter’ Hizbullah.

Hizbullah and the Resistance Front have announced their red lines. Cross them, and Nasrallah has promised to open a new front.

So, we must try to view events dynamically, and not just through the literal bubble of today’s distractions: If Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant – consumed by the desire to avenge Saturday’s events – overreach, Israel may find itself in existential peril.

Israel is surrounded by tens of thousands of smart missiles and swarm drones. An attack on Hizbullah or Iran constitutes the ‘Red Pill’ for Israel. Will Netayahu, consumed with anger and panic, take a gamble? And if he, Gallant and Gantz reach for the Red Pill, might the roof fall in?

Team Biden is clearly blinded by their rage, but they don’t or are actually unable to see that their rage is due to their own shortcomings and those of the Outlaw US Empire’s policies since 1945, and even earlier. If the Empire or one of its vassals vetoes Russia’s UNSC humanitarian resolution, the West will no longer be seen in a positive light by RoW, and the division of the world into two blocs will become a certainty.

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