Not sure if it was just a spelling error, but I liked Alastair Crookes use of IOF rather than IDF as the designation of the Israeli Armed Forces. A more accurate description IMO. The times we are living through get more and more interesting - not pretty or nice but definitely more interesting.
That makes sense. I came across the same designation alot when checking out various threads dealing with 'The Flood'. Just reading the Cynthia Chung link provided in the article, which I'm sure will challenge the current preconceptions of normal American and Brit loyalists. By the way I am continually impressed by your patience. It must be a skill that serious teacher's develope ;o)
Response to Karl Sanchez' "Alastair Crooke on the Al-Aqsa Flood"
I'm still not seeing the political endgame for Hamas here. Do they just want Israel to make deal about prisoners? Good luck with that. Do they want Israel to back down on this "Third Temple" nonsense? Good luck with that.
As Martyanov likes to say, war is conducted for political objectives. If you don't know your political objectives - and have a plan to achieve them which extends outside your military objectives - you will lose.
The objectives of the Israeli government are clear: wipe out Hamas (and preferably Hezbollah if they get involved), and drive the rest of the Palestinians into Egypt, Syria, Lebanon or the sea - while avoiding criminal corruption charges or getting too many Israeli soldiers and civilians killed which leads to being kicked out of power.
So unless Hamas, Hezbollah or others have a plan to insure the latter or guarantee the agreements they want, they will lose. If they get their agreements - again, good luck with that and good luck with making those agreements stick any more than Minsk II stuck - then Hamas will be back inside Gaza and nothing essentially will change. Just like if Russia agreed to those peace deals in March, 2022, the situation would have reverted back to Minsk II and Russia would have to invade all over again once that deal was abrogated - which it certainly would have been.
In the real world, you either achieve a military victory and the surrender of your enemies - or you lose. Period. End of story. I don't give Hamas a rat's chance in a maze of succeeding at this. Worse, if this has all been planned, it will end badly for Hamas at least, if not Hezbollah.
As for this business of Israel being completely caught off-guard, I don't buy it for one second. Someone at Martyanov's site suggested that what happened is that Hezbollah caught wind of the intent of the Al-Agsa Flood and got Hamas to launch its strike before Israel was ready to follow-up on it. That is possible. But that presumes that NO ONE in Israel had ANY idea that such an incursion would produce a violent reaction. As Crooke admits, WHY NOT?
Therefore, no, it did not. This was a planned incursion, a planned reaction (although exactly HOW Hamas would react probably WAS a surprise) and therefore what happens next has been planned on both sides.
The only people who don't know what is planned is...the rest of us. And that probably includes Crooke.
Knowing Hamas's political objectives is something the Zionists would want to know, thus Hamas is keeping them secret for now. Tactically, they seem to be trying to sever Palestine into two parts by linking Gaza with the West Bank. That's my initial assessment first thing Minday morning.
One political objective Hamas could have is to humiliate Israel and drag it into a long conflict in Gaza that it cannot possibly win, and sap Israeli military strength and morale. Israel being politically divided could be at risk of falling apart if it doesn't perform well militarily in this conflict.
A second political objective could be to avenge Zionists' incursions into the Al-Aqsa mosque, and thereby rallying support around the Palestinian cause, which could mean more arms, ammunition and funds from allies.
A third political objective could be to open another front in the war against the US Empire, weakening one of its key allies, and garner political, military and financial support from its enemies.
I see Palestinian ISR emanating from Iran via RF sources. The Izzies won't have a monopoly on that.
Well, the SMO in UA was getting sort of stale anyway....and provides a much-needed offramp for Zhou Baidan. Of course, this will roil the oil markets and a lot of economies with it. This is the black swan that was inevitable.
Correct. Weapons and ammo can be stopped to a trickle as Gaza can be blockaded, except for the border with Egypt but only so much can be smuggled in through tunnels.
And then there is man power. Attrition warfare as in the SMO is also valid in Gaza; who has the most people and materiel generally wins.
I do not think that Hamas are suicidal, there must be plans for escalation with outside help. Iran knows the US is weak (as does the whole world, inc Russia), and I think the Axis of Resistance recognised a "now or never" moment.
Further tom my previous comment; this from Aleks at BMA, " Quds Forces. They are organized in several sections. There are publicly known special forces. And there are also covertly organized, let’s say undercover-acting, agents in the tens of thousands, all across the Arab world and Israel. Their purpose is to organize and prepare an all-out war of the axis of resistance against Israel, in what is essentially most of the Muslim world around Israel. We can think of them as thousands of active agents, preparing, organizing, and coordinating militias and governments around Israel for the final blow. And we can think of thousands of sleeper cells, only waiting for a prepared sign that would make them execute a predefined and pre-communicated sequence of actions."
Added to that Hezbollah has the plans and capabilities to strike deep in to Occupied Palestine; Nasrallah has outlined that over the years. he said many years ago that the next war with the Zionist entity would not be on Lebanese territory and would not be a border war. They have strike groups ready to go.
I really do believe that the Axis of Resistance has a battle plan in place, otherwise what Hamas has done in the last two days would be for nought.
This may well be the big one to end the monstrosity that is IsraHell.
Just read Simplicius' article. I think he goes a little conspiratorial, but in general I agree with his assessments. I posted a long response just now, and it should be in my Notes as well.
Palestinian ISR will come from Hezbollah in Lebanon, closer to the action than Russia via Iran is. Hezbollah has extensive Iranian-supplied encrypted comms capability - they broke IDF comms crypto way back in 2006.
I don't believe for a moment that 'Zionist intel was completely wrong footed'. Which is why they keep saying so often that it was. I wonder how long it will be before China and Russia step in to mediate a permanent settlement of this long-standing, intractable problem?
I agree, both the US and it's puppet Israel stand to gain from the Hamas attacks. Netanyahu gets to rally support around him (for a little longer), and the MSM now has a reason to remove Ukraine gradually from the headlines.
That said, the Anglo-Zionists may have miscalculated how well-prepared Hamas truly was. And, as the situation in Ukraine has shown, they may have miscalculated how this conflict in Palestine will end. That is to say, they may have calculated a win for US-Israel in this conflict, and that a blow to Iran-Russia would be dealt in this region.
Whilst I have no proof of this, could it be possible that Hamas, Iran, and Russia were aware of US-Israeli plans to allow a 'Pearl Harbor' to happen, but adjusted and/or hid the true intent their plans to outplay US-Israel?
a) no doubt Hamas is riddled with Mossad-friendly informers, double agents etc.
b) no doubt Russia has tons of diaspora Russian-Jewish informers, double agents etc.
c) no doubt the 8 billion to Iran was made with Israeli knowledge and approval
d) nearly everything that happens involves some sort of deception
e) chances are this, like Ukraine SMO, is a real conflict for the guys on the street level, but part of a broader scheme organized by people pulling strings in both camps. Nothing just happens.
"Hamdan said that the Resistance took advantage of all the information retrieved following the takeover of the “Erez” outpost liberating Palestinian territories.
"Among the documents were those denoting the names of Israeli agents in Gaza and across Palestine as well as plans laid out by the Israeli occupation."
That could've been one political goal right there.
He doesn't say so, but perhaps one timing factor (no doubt of many) is the stalling of the SMO and increasingly reluctance of allies to fund it and for news consumers to remain interested. A major escalation in the Middle East.... that should be good for another period of expensive mayhem....
Will be interesting to see whether
a) Russia-China can step in to rescue the Izzy-Saudi friendship which presumably will involve facilitating a cease-fire or
b) the region becomes inflamed in interminable internecine strife yet again one of whose purposes is to delay the end of the old post-war Hegemonic Order.
My working assumption at this point is that, one way or another, geopolitical instability will remain until domestic turmoil in America reaches critical levels at which point some sort of Very Big Changes can be implemented. All this geopolitical turmoil serves as cover for the domestic elites bringing this dysfunction on by providing external causation narratives deflecting focus or blame on themselves.
Not sure if it was just a spelling error, but I liked Alastair Crookes use of IOF rather than IDF as the designation of the Israeli Armed Forces. A more accurate description IMO. The times we are living through get more and more interesting - not pretty or nice but definitely more interesting.
IOF--Israeli Occupation Forces. IMO, he uses that term to please the publisher.
That makes sense. I came across the same designation alot when checking out various threads dealing with 'The Flood'. Just reading the Cynthia Chung link provided in the article, which I'm sure will challenge the current preconceptions of normal American and Brit loyalists. By the way I am continually impressed by your patience. It must be a skill that serious teacher's develope ;o)
Staying balanced is key as anger clouds the mind. Exposing facts and comparing them to law is the best path, IMO.
I have called them that for years too. And the US dept. of Defense is actually the Dept. of Offense (or War). Either works.
Australia has the ADF, which is actually the AOF.
Outstanding piece, Thanks.
Excellent stuff. Alastair is dead on. Thank you!
Response to Karl Sanchez' "Alastair Crooke on the Al-Aqsa Flood"
I'm still not seeing the political endgame for Hamas here. Do they just want Israel to make deal about prisoners? Good luck with that. Do they want Israel to back down on this "Third Temple" nonsense? Good luck with that.
As Martyanov likes to say, war is conducted for political objectives. If you don't know your political objectives - and have a plan to achieve them which extends outside your military objectives - you will lose.
The objectives of the Israeli government are clear: wipe out Hamas (and preferably Hezbollah if they get involved), and drive the rest of the Palestinians into Egypt, Syria, Lebanon or the sea - while avoiding criminal corruption charges or getting too many Israeli soldiers and civilians killed which leads to being kicked out of power.
So unless Hamas, Hezbollah or others have a plan to insure the latter or guarantee the agreements they want, they will lose. If they get their agreements - again, good luck with that and good luck with making those agreements stick any more than Minsk II stuck - then Hamas will be back inside Gaza and nothing essentially will change. Just like if Russia agreed to those peace deals in March, 2022, the situation would have reverted back to Minsk II and Russia would have to invade all over again once that deal was abrogated - which it certainly would have been.
In the real world, you either achieve a military victory and the surrender of your enemies - or you lose. Period. End of story. I don't give Hamas a rat's chance in a maze of succeeding at this. Worse, if this has all been planned, it will end badly for Hamas at least, if not Hezbollah.
As for this business of Israel being completely caught off-guard, I don't buy it for one second. Someone at Martyanov's site suggested that what happened is that Hezbollah caught wind of the intent of the Al-Agsa Flood and got Hamas to launch its strike before Israel was ready to follow-up on it. That is possible. But that presumes that NO ONE in Israel had ANY idea that such an incursion would produce a violent reaction. As Crooke admits, WHY NOT?
Therefore, no, it did not. This was a planned incursion, a planned reaction (although exactly HOW Hamas would react probably WAS a surprise) and therefore what happens next has been planned on both sides.
The only people who don't know what is planned is...the rest of us. And that probably includes Crooke.
Knowing Hamas's political objectives is something the Zionists would want to know, thus Hamas is keeping them secret for now. Tactically, they seem to be trying to sever Palestine into two parts by linking Gaza with the West Bank. That's my initial assessment first thing Minday morning.
One political objective Hamas could have is to humiliate Israel and drag it into a long conflict in Gaza that it cannot possibly win, and sap Israeli military strength and morale. Israel being politically divided could be at risk of falling apart if it doesn't perform well militarily in this conflict.
A second political objective could be to avenge Zionists' incursions into the Al-Aqsa mosque, and thereby rallying support around the Palestinian cause, which could mean more arms, ammunition and funds from allies.
A third political objective could be to open another front in the war against the US Empire, weakening one of its key allies, and garner political, military and financial support from its enemies.
I see Palestinian ISR emanating from Iran via RF sources. The Izzies won't have a monopoly on that.
Well, the SMO in UA was getting sort of stale anyway....and provides a much-needed offramp for Zhou Baidan. Of course, this will roil the oil markets and a lot of economies with it. This is the black swan that was inevitable.
It seems many want to enlarge the issue, Simplicius is just one. I disagree. It might grow, but for now its local.
If it's local, Hamas loses. Without Hezbollah, Hamas can not win anything substantial.
Correct. Weapons and ammo can be stopped to a trickle as Gaza can be blockaded, except for the border with Egypt but only so much can be smuggled in through tunnels.
And then there is man power. Attrition warfare as in the SMO is also valid in Gaza; who has the most people and materiel generally wins.
I do not think that Hamas are suicidal, there must be plans for escalation with outside help. Iran knows the US is weak (as does the whole world, inc Russia), and I think the Axis of Resistance recognised a "now or never" moment.
Further tom my previous comment; this from Aleks at BMA, " Quds Forces. They are organized in several sections. There are publicly known special forces. And there are also covertly organized, let’s say undercover-acting, agents in the tens of thousands, all across the Arab world and Israel. Their purpose is to organize and prepare an all-out war of the axis of resistance against Israel, in what is essentially most of the Muslim world around Israel. We can think of them as thousands of active agents, preparing, organizing, and coordinating militias and governments around Israel for the final blow. And we can think of thousands of sleeper cells, only waiting for a prepared sign that would make them execute a predefined and pre-communicated sequence of actions."
Added to that Hezbollah has the plans and capabilities to strike deep in to Occupied Palestine; Nasrallah has outlined that over the years. he said many years ago that the next war with the Zionist entity would not be on Lebanese territory and would not be a border war. They have strike groups ready to go.
I really do believe that the Axis of Resistance has a battle plan in place, otherwise what Hamas has done in the last two days would be for nought.
This may well be the big one to end the monstrosity that is IsraHell.
It's now morning where I'm at and its well past noon in Palestine; so, I'll need to do some reading before I can provide a reasonable answer.
Just read Simplicius' article. I think he goes a little conspiratorial, but in general I agree with his assessments. I posted a long response just now, and it should be in my Notes as well.
I really hope you are right.
Palestinian ISR will come from Hezbollah in Lebanon, closer to the action than Russia via Iran is. Hezbollah has extensive Iranian-supplied encrypted comms capability - they broke IDF comms crypto way back in 2006.
I don't believe for a moment that 'Zionist intel was completely wrong footed'. Which is why they keep saying so often that it was. I wonder how long it will be before China and Russia step in to mediate a permanent settlement of this long-standing, intractable problem?
I agree, both the US and it's puppet Israel stand to gain from the Hamas attacks. Netanyahu gets to rally support around him (for a little longer), and the MSM now has a reason to remove Ukraine gradually from the headlines.
That said, the Anglo-Zionists may have miscalculated how well-prepared Hamas truly was. And, as the situation in Ukraine has shown, they may have miscalculated how this conflict in Palestine will end. That is to say, they may have calculated a win for US-Israel in this conflict, and that a blow to Iran-Russia would be dealt in this region.
Whilst I have no proof of this, could it be possible that Hamas, Iran, and Russia were aware of US-Israeli plans to allow a 'Pearl Harbor' to happen, but adjusted and/or hid the true intent their plans to outplay US-Israel?
I have no idea of course. But:
a) no doubt Hamas is riddled with Mossad-friendly informers, double agents etc.
b) no doubt Russia has tons of diaspora Russian-Jewish informers, double agents etc.
c) no doubt the 8 billion to Iran was made with Israeli knowledge and approval
d) nearly everything that happens involves some sort of deception
e) chances are this, like Ukraine SMO, is a real conflict for the guys on the street level, but part of a broader scheme organized by people pulling strings in both camps. Nothing just happens.
This is from the news item I cited:
"Hamdan said that the Resistance took advantage of all the information retrieved following the takeover of the “Erez” outpost liberating Palestinian territories.
"Among the documents were those denoting the names of Israeli agents in Gaza and across Palestine as well as plans laid out by the Israeli occupation."
That could've been one political goal right there.
Wheels within wheels. Good geopolitical perspective piece by Doctorow:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/10/08/the-israeli-war-on-hamas-from-a-geopolitical-perspective/#like-8209
He doesn't say so, but perhaps one timing factor (no doubt of many) is the stalling of the SMO and increasingly reluctance of allies to fund it and for news consumers to remain interested. A major escalation in the Middle East.... that should be good for another period of expensive mayhem....
Will be interesting to see whether
a) Russia-China can step in to rescue the Izzy-Saudi friendship which presumably will involve facilitating a cease-fire or
b) the region becomes inflamed in interminable internecine strife yet again one of whose purposes is to delay the end of the old post-war Hegemonic Order.
My working assumption at this point is that, one way or another, geopolitical instability will remain until domestic turmoil in America reaches critical levels at which point some sort of Very Big Changes can be implemented. All this geopolitical turmoil serves as cover for the domestic elites bringing this dysfunction on by providing external causation narratives deflecting focus or blame on themselves.