“A coup d'etat is coming!”
Today, b at MoA launched the following article, “Ukraine - The Battle Over Zelenski's Fate Is Still in Balance,” whose initial paragraphs follow:
An intense information operation has been launched to remove Ukraine's (former) President Vladimir Zelenski from office. Behind it are a cabal of Ukrainian opposition figures in coordination which western media and parts of the Trump administration.
The current campaign follows a earlier one which was directed against Zelenski's main advisor and head of the office of the president Andrei Yermak.
There was the usual muddle of speculation based on what b presented none of which I found satisfactory. I decided the only proper way to comment was to do sort of a recap of where we are and where we’re going with not just Ukraine but Outlaw US Empire policy under Trump. Yes, it’s a Big Picture overview sketch since without key specific details that’s really all that can genuinely, honestly be done. What follows is that effort:
As Putin noted several months ago in his chat with submarine crew members, the real forces running Ukraine hide behind the Zelensky facade, and they are ugly and unworthy of negotiating with--in essence, they are Nazis/Terrorists. So, if/when Zelensky is ousted/eliminated, will another figure head by anointed or will a member of the "dark team" take power? The hooey about Zelensky being an autocrat and corruption reigning is massively funny since it finally describes reality in Kiev. As for Zelensky's steadfast refusal to negotiate, IMO that's what the Dark Forces are telling him to do. Nazis don't negotiate; they fight to the end and need to be completely destroyed in any case.
As for Trump, IMO he used his boast as the war ender during the campaign to get elected because the evidence says he has no intention of actually doing what must be done to rebuild normal relations with Russia--the easiest steps being to restore the stolen diplomatic properties and reestablish direct flights from DC to Moscow. It's been six months and no movement on either has occurred. The other step would be the severance of support for Ukraine, and that hasn't happened either. What I read tells me the Outlaw US Empire is still trying to attain its #1 policy goal of Full Spectrum Dominance. One of the very odd aspects of the last several years spanning at least three different administrations is the utter lack of good analysis of those forces the Empire declares as its adversaries. Russia's weak and will easily fall apart upon the application of sanctions from hell. Iran's society is fractured, its economy weak and its defenses negligible, so it will easily fall as the result of a decapitation strike as was done with Syria. And China has severe economic and social problems and only needs to be pushed a little to fall, and that can be done via a Trade War. In all of the above, the Empire is seen as very strong militarily, economically and politically. GDP is believed to be $35 Trillion when it's genuinely just about $15 Trillion, meaning debt to GDP is actually over 200% US weapons don't perform, particularly AD. It has no Army capable of combat against any peer or near-peer like Iran. Etc. Yet, plutocrat policy drivers see none of that. They have political control of the Empire, they're filthy rich and that's all they think is required--they seem to think they're Olympian Gods they're hubris's so massive.
Given the above, what will happen? Trump's 50 days will arrive and to placate the Congressional hawk majority, he'll at least invoke the 100% tariffs on any nation trading with Russia. What more might Congress do? It could authorize more money and weapons to support Ukraine that's made no difference at all to-date. The blowback from the current tariffs will be in motion by then and the folly of doing more might be seen. And we must factor in the political blowback from policies already enacted and other decisions made--support for Genocide, lies about Epstein, throwing his base under the bus, ICE fascism, etc.
As I wrote a few days ago, Trump has already attained the goals he set for himself upon regaining the presidency--Further enriching the already filthy rich while kicking the poor and immigrants in the teeth while continuing his trade warfare against China specifically that was extended to the entire world, which IMO he sees as a game. Congress won't impeach and convict prior to 2027; after 2027, Congress might be able to impeach but won't be able to convict. Meanwhile, Russia will attain its SMO goals, and the Empire will lose the Trade War as the world institutes new methods to circumvent Imperial control, which will defeat the #1 policy goal. What happens with Iran is hard to predict along with events in West Asia as a whole. But the big picture seems clearer.
And so, what happens to Zelensky? Some opined he could be “Diem’d.” Given the types of people surrounding him, that’s very possible. It’s also possible he could be retained as the fig leaf he’s been made into since Europeans still see his as legitimate. Is he still seen as useful by Russia is a key question whose answer is unknown. Or does what happens to Zelensky matter? The drama continues.
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Spot on with your analysis, Karl. To answer your rhetorical question: 'Or does what happens to Zelensky matter?'
That would be a 'no'.
The real question is going to be how Russia responds to the continued provocations, terrorism, sanctions, threats to its trading partners, and probably the next proxy - Moldova, the Baltic States, Armenia? - post-Ukraine.
A Russian friend of mine said yesterday: "This is absurd. They are attacking MOSCOW (my emphasis) every day with their drones ('they' meaning the US and its vassals NOT the fascist morons in Ukraine). Would Stalin have sat back and done nothing while the enemy bombarded the capital city of Russia?'
No prizes for the answer to that rhetorical question.
Someone at Naked capitalism brought up "regime change by sex scandal!"
How many trips did Trump make to the island since before his card in 2003?
Trump is far too protective of the evidence from many years of investigating Epstein's activities and the huge pay outs made to Epstein's under aged "associates".
In that light Zelenski must go and Trump will let IDF loose on anything that attracts headlines rather than let his indiscretions run news cycle.
I was 13 when they Diem'd Diem! I was 24 when Nixon left the White House.