43 Comments
User's avatar
James Foley's avatar

Spot on with your analysis, Karl. To answer your rhetorical question: 'Or does what happens to Zelensky matter?'

That would be a 'no'.

The real question is going to be how Russia responds to the continued provocations, terrorism, sanctions, threats to its trading partners, and probably the next proxy - Moldova, the Baltic States, Armenia? - post-Ukraine.

A Russian friend of mine said yesterday: "This is absurd. They are attacking MOSCOW (my emphasis) every day with their drones ('they' meaning the US and its vassals NOT the fascist morons in Ukraine). Would Stalin have sat back and done nothing while the enemy bombarded the capital city of Russia?'

No prizes for the answer to that rhetorical question.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

IMO, it’s clear Russia doesn’t want to use nukes to solve the SMO unless there’s absolutely no other option. The Oreshnik offers a middle of the road option of punishment without using nukes. Further, I agree with many Russians that most of Ukraine will need to be conquered, but not necessarily occupied, to satisfy the SMO’s denazification goal. It’s also possible that Russia will declare Nazis to be the same as terrorists, which it’s almost already done de facto but not de jure. In future, Russia could say it will attack and destroy any visible manifestation of Nazism since Nazis are not seen by Russia as civilians. That would mean Nazi marches anywhere would be subject to missile attack. The West as saviors and supporters of Nazism will need to make a choice—either disavow Nazism or continue its support and face the consequences. Such are the nuances I neglected in my commentary. And the Outlaw US Empire faces a similar choice and will not be able to hide behind Nazism being protected speech any longer.

How will the clearly declining Outlaw US Empire deal with what it’s caused? IMO, what’s been done via Trump will need a conclusion. Putin has stated it’s not so much about ideology but geopolitics; I say it’s both from the Empire’s POV—Those running the Empire MUST have Primacy, thus their geopolitics. The world is now in the process of proving to the Empire it no longer has Primacy and is forcing it to alter its geopolitics. That’s THE Conflict—WW3. The Wolfowitz Doctrine—Full Spectrum Dominance—and 911 are what lit the current fire that the world is now trying to extinguish without the fire extinguishing the world.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

i have been thinking of ( how ) the term terrorist is used... it seems to me that one side says 'these are the terrorists' and lets brand them as such... so azoz was a terrorist organization, until it was a useful asset of the west against russia... russia can claim present day nazis are terrorist as well, but of course the west ignores this definition, thru a number of reasons, especially since they are essentially nazis themselves at this point... well, maybe the parallel with the west using isis is similar here to the west using nazis... either way, the west is seen for the dishonest broker it is at this point... let me add to this..

''ukraine is a just war and russia must be sanctioned.... gaza was an attack from hamas that must be addressed and israel is doing it's best''.... that is the hypocritical thinking of the west at this point where up is down and down is up... if they say it enough times, apparently a lot of people will believe it..

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

“And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you’re going to fall,

“Tell ‘em a hookah smoking caterpillar has given you the call…”

“Remember what the door mouse said:

“Feed your head, Feed your head”

And another:

“It riles them to believe That you perceive The web they weave.”

And as you’re aware, there are many more.

Expand full comment
Lantern Dude's avatar

You appear to have summed up 'the rules based order' james.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

russia will have to provide a present day answer to your friends historical question, regardless..

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Stalin was a product of his times; therefore, there can never be another Stalin. Would Hitler have invaded the USSR knowing it had nukes? Very doubtful.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

putin is a product of his time as well... is the west in the process of seeing how far they can go to test his limits?? it appears so..

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

As many have opined, Putin is the one you’d rather deal with as those he holds in check are mostly more hawkish. It’s hard to say about those being groomed as tomorrow’s leaders through the Time of Heros and similar programs recruiting former and current SMO participants. There’re also some longtime regional leaders who are Putin’s peers that will also retire when he does in 2030. The changeover in Russian’s government is why the EU/NATO are focusing on being ready by 2029-30 for their counterattack. What happens after 2030 is also why Putin’s so involved in trying to establish the programs that will continue well after he leaves the helm. Lavrov is 75 and his #2 Ryabkov is 65; who will replace them? My point is it’s the whole team not just Putin, which is something I’ve been saying continually for years.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

i am sure those who seek to dismantle russia are thinking on this very intently..

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Of course, by 2030 they’ll be 5 years older and the European political situation is very unstable. Currently, neither France, Italy, Spain, Hungary, Slovenia, BiH, and Portugal will send money to the Empire for weapons to be supplied to Ukraine, and that list seems to be growing. That leaves only Germany and UK as the two main escalation actors. The Scandinavian publics don’t seem very willing, nor do the Polish. The Baltics have next to nothing to add.

Furthermore, will a deindustrialized and energy deficient Germany be capable of building a new formidable military in less than 5 years given all the changes that have occurred in modern warfare since 2022 and will continue?

You did see my comment that human soldiers on frontlines will soon become a thing of the past with the advent of robowarriors? Have you looked at what the Chinese robots are already doing in the social sphere, like playing football and doing martial arts? IMO, the near future military will look nothing like what existed in 2022.

Expand full comment
Ed's avatar

Someone at Naked capitalism brought up "regime change by sex scandal!"

How many trips did Trump make to the island since before his card in 2003?

Trump is far too protective of the evidence from many years of investigating Epstein's activities and the huge pay outs made to Epstein's under aged "associates".

In that light Zelenski must go and Trump will let IDF loose on anything that attracts headlines rather than let his indiscretions run news cycle.

I was 13 when they Diem'd Diem! I was 24 when Nixon left the White House.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

As I opined, Congress won’t do the deed.

Expand full comment
bevin's avatar

It is one of the more important contradictions of oligarchichal monopoly capitalism that what Karl calls 'analysis' is simply another service for profit.

The successful think tanks and pundits are those who tell the emperor what he likes to hear. Hence the current estimates, from MI6 and CIA, that the Russian army is currently shuddering in anticipation of another deathly blow from the agents of western security services in Kiev. The Russians, we are told, have suffered two million dead and many more incapacitated since 2022.

Which leads to the conclusion that regime change, a catastrophic fall from power of Mr Putin, is imminent. Similar idiotic analyses led to the cunning plan which culminated in the events of June 13th and established the Islamic Republic on unassailable ground.

This characteristic of the Empire is far from being restricted to foreign policy: it is notorious that promotion in the armed forces is thoroughly corrupt, so corrupt that it puts the likes of Kellogg and Petraeus at the head of armies, so corrupt that it puts a National Guard Platoon Commander and professional arse licker in charge of the Pentagon.

And then, of course, there is the President himself, who sees this as a time to implement the KKK's modernised agenda. No doubt he is assured daily of the enthusiasm among the masses for ICE raids and the gratitude of the poor and vulnerable for the destruction of the paltry benefits of Medicaid. Roy Cohn would have been so proud.

As with "Israel' so it is with the United States- all its victims and rivals need to do is to pinch their nostrils, to mitigate the stench, and watch as they destroy themselves.

Blake told us that "The road of excess leads to the Palace of Wisdom." He forgot to mention that the journey involved much torment and very little self awareness.

Expand full comment
Richard Roskell's avatar

Zelensky's fate... it's hard to imagine a good outcome. Possibilities in order of likelihood, imo:

1. Zelensky is killed by the Ukrainian Nazis during a Russian airstrike, and they blame the assassination on Russia.

2. Zelensky is killed by the CIA during a Russian airstrike, and the death is blamed on Russia.

3. Zelensky hangs on for some time, but then really is killed in a Russian airstrike.

4. Zelensky, against all the odds, hangs on and leads what's left of Ukraine after the war is over.

5. Zelensky escapes to Miami and spends the rest of his life looking over his shoulder for Ukrainian Nazis, the CIA and Russia, in that order.

6. Zelensky dies peacefully in his villa bed in Miami.

At the start of the conflict I actually felt sorry for Zelensky. He looked utterly disheveled and haunted, undoubtedly for good reasons. But then he decided to embrace the war-time leader shtick for all he's worth. As commander-in-chief he sent hundreds of thousands of men to a pointless death, and as an adversary he caused Russia great pain too. I don't wish harm on any human being, but I reserve no sympathy for Zelensky over what's going to happen to him.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

I wrote many months ago the Zelensky is a tragic figure very much like the very unfortunate character in the film “Less Than Zero.” The junkie dying from its addiction has more humanity than Zelensky.

Expand full comment
Richard Roskell's avatar

I see addictions first as a medical disability. Zelensky, on the other hand, had perfectly reasonable options to step away from war. He enthusiastically chose the latter and there's no coming back from a fail at that level.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Same with the movie character. He was very zestful at the outset.

Expand full comment
Tedder130's avatar

I was just a teenager when Diem was Deim'd and all we learned at the time was that Vietnam was a chaotic political mess and there was absolutely no reason why he was 'taken out' (for chicken and dip?). Years later did I learn of US direction of the assassination, and I suspect that Zelensky's removal will be another unaccountable event that will make no sense, especially to those who still keep Zelensky action figures on their shelves, little alters draped with yellow and blue.

Expand full comment
uncle tungsten's avatar

My immediate reaction is that this is irrelevant, diversion, blah blah blah by the FUKUSA team of rsoles. Trump is hiding behind any rock he can to avoid being hauled before a global court to try his genocide be it in Palestine, Ukraine, or even Syria these days. Same with Bibi. The jester will keep dancing and screaming until a Centurion spikes him. It is irrelevant, but we need to see through it and proceed to global justice and that is the discussion worthy of civilised attention.

Expand full comment
Don Midwest's avatar

Recently found Emmanuel Todd. He is probably fairly well known to readers here.

"Emmanuel Todd is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris"

He predicted Soviet Union' fall using demographic statistics like birth rate, etc. An article,

"Emmanuel Todd: I’ve Always Been Amazed by Russia’s Role in World Processes

No. 1 2025 January/March"

https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/emmanuel-todd-russias-role/

"The USSR’s dissolution produced the illusion that the West had triumphed, when in reality the West itself had long before entered economic and cultural decline, as early as the mid-1960s."

"– Both were milestones of change in the education systems. In the U.S., 1965 saw the adoption of the Elementary and Secondary Education Development Act. Ideally it was the right thing to do, as it provided expanded access to learning. But, according to the Scholastic Aptitude Test, it was precisely after 1965 that the performance of university candidates began to deteriorate in mathematics, spoken and written language."

Education "– To an extent, yes. But eventually this will bring us to what I believe is the basic reason behind the West’s waning power—the gradual erosion of the pillars of its former greatness. First and foremost, the Protestant ethic (English, German, American, Scandinavian, and so on) and its values, such as education, discipline, and hard work.

In my book The Defeat of the West, I describe the West as a civilization that has reached the limit of its own ability to exploit the rest of the world. The West lives on the cheap labor of Chinese workers and Bangladeshi children—that is, the merciless exploitation of other countries. It seeks to retain its privileged position, while the other world actors are ever less willing to tolerate this.

So, I see the world confrontation through the lens of relations of power and exploitation, but I note at the same time that the existing systems are keen to use values as an instrument of struggle."

***

He recently began a substack and his post today has 90 likes and no comments.

"Russia is our Rorschach" https://substack.com/@emmanueltodd/note/p-168700074

" "It's going to be unpleasant for you to hear this, but our Russophobia has nothing to do with you. It's a fantasy, a pathology of Western societies, an endogenous need of ours to imagine a Russian monster.”"

"The fact remains that the public and free expression of their Russophobia is a treasure trove for the geopsychiatrist. "

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Thanks for the FYI. I haven’t been to his site for awhile, https://emmanueltodd.substack.com/

Expand full comment
WTFUD's avatar

All your points are perfectly valid Karl, it's just difficult putting the pieces of the jigsaw together and coming up with who's running the western circus.

There's been a power shift in the US with the Technocrats, Blackrock and several other corporations calling the shots. The Federal Reserve (JP Morgan & Co), CIA, Congress/Senate powers curtailed.

All of the above bar the Public Servants have conceded that the Gig's up with Trump anointed Pedlar in Chief to baffle the markets/investors, Europe and anyone with skin in the game with bullshit.

It's different in Europe, in particular the UK where the City of London, BoE and MI6 retain all power. However, Europe/UK are almost irrelevant, heavily indebted, kept afloat just by robbing the pension pools and our old friend austerity, slashing public services. They have nothing to lose and were prepared to go all in Russian-Roulette as witness 'please Uncle Sham can we fire longer-range missiles into Moscow' and were given a thumbs down kick-up-the-backside, message relayed do you wish to see Paris, Berlin and London levelled to the ground.

Importantly for America, Putin still believes that the new power brokers in America will come or fingers crossed have come to their senses. The US although weakened could still cause enough damage to China & Russia's NWO. The door remains open and the olive branch accepted.

Trump's handlers threw a bone to the Zionist/Neocon Mob when attacking Iran and like Europe they're now on life-support, at the mercy of the new US powerbrokers, headed by Peter Thiel.

Putin, Xi and Peter Thiel will strike a deal as Russia puts the SMO to bed in 50/100/200 days. The sooner the better for all 3 parties.

Blackrock pulling out of Ukraine's rebuild was a big tell on the way this pans out.

Just my theory which preserves America's status as a superpower and prevents Operation Unthinkable 2, the nuclear option.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

There’s another clue I hope to write about tomorrow. It should have been revealed earlier a month ago during the SPIEF.

Expand full comment
dornoch altbinhax's avatar

As you've said the furniture may be re-arranged but it's the same same. The speculation about the green goblin is distraction, another melodrama for media headlines and gossip mongering. Meanwhile the Russians will continue, but being less polite in addressing these @55holes would be nice to see, pls more Medvedev.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

I was just reading another “This is China” transcript reviewing the 12 Day War that starts with Zhang Weiwei recounting what Putin said at the SPIEF which was ongoing during the conflict where he said this via my translator,

“Some people think that we need to do more [to support Iran], even military action. In fact, we have launched military operations against those who oppose our ideas and threaten Russia's security, ***most of whom are in the same group as those who provoked this conflict***, but they are hiding behind them. What else do we have to do after all this?”

That made me go to look at several translations of the official Russian transcript which confirmed the emphasized portion while providing a different solution for the closing clause, but …”:

“somewhere, far away, in the rear, behind their backs. But these are not even those who are on the line of contact.”

While another said,

“Essentially, these are the same forces, both in Iran and in Russia, located in the background. But these are not even the ones on the front lines.”

IMO, Putin means the Neocon/Zionists. I intend to play with this further in tomorrow’s article unless something better appears.

Expand full comment
Loon's avatar

Accurate take on what is happening I’d say . Interesting to note the same escalation plan unchanged from its beginning 50 years ago yet I see no realization that things have changed.

Hardwired .

Expand full comment
Christopher Jones's avatar

I do not really agree. Zelensky should stand trial in Moscow. Let's call it the Moscow International tribunal. The whole lot. Russia should also include in this Nuremberg II the theft of its central bank billions. There is much meat for judges.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

I’m not arguing against the need for a trial; trials I do support, those now ongoing and those to occur in the future. However, Zelensky is merely a bit player in this drama who’s been inflated well beyond his importance. What Trump’s trying to do is to somehow disconnect the Outlaw US Empire from having launched a War of Aggression on Russian speaking Ukrainians in 2014 that it’s continued ever since. That crime makes the Empire responsible for all other crimes and damages committed during the conflict as per Nuremburg.

Expand full comment
Acco Hengst's avatar

And so, what happens to Zelensky? Some opined he could be “Diem’d.” That was military with JFKs tacit approval.

He might even be JFKed by his own security forces. No Trump approval needed nor required.

Most likely, nothing will happen until there is no fighting left for Russia to do and it might put him under arrest.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

If we follow Putin’s line of reasoning, Zelensky must be replaced for any agreement to be signed, but he can’t be replaced by just anyone—whoever that is must have some proven legitimacy. So, it appears Zelensky will be removed from the scene in some fashion. I’m not too concerned about what happens with Ukraine; it’s the Bigger Picture I’m worried about.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

i suspect whatever happens to z, it will be blamed on russia.. that much is a given based on the past however many years of russian persecution by the west..

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Novichok.

Expand full comment
james's avatar

yes - that type of uk set up with a huge array of propaganda to back it up... at this poin uk main war tool is propaganda.. deception and deceit is all they have at this point..

Expand full comment
Acco Hengst's avatar

Russia may wish to stage a public trial, Adolf Eichman style.

Put him in cage, always good for the camera.

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

Russian courts have a defendant’s cage.

Expand full comment
Acco Hengst's avatar

Kidnap the SOB at the very end and put him in it, Eichmann style.

I doubt that he will be replaced or assassinated

Expand full comment
james's avatar

karl.. i liked your comment... so many unknowns, so speculation is free to anyone... i like your subtitle, or is that a subtitle? “A coup d'etat is coming!”

Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

That’s what the photo says and could act as a subtitle, although I didn’t advocate that specifically.

Expand full comment
Truth Seeking Missile's avatar

I'll just wait to see how Putin continues his alliance with his many Jewish oligarch partners. The rest is theatre.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Jul 19
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Karl Sanchez's avatar

The Parasite’s inability to properly assess and thus plan appropriately has helped greatly. There are some things money can’t buy.

Expand full comment