49 Comments

Russia & Iran have played a fantastic game, I've totally changed my original opinion. After taking in as many articles as possible. It's became very apparent thst Russia, Iran & Assad knew fine well what was & planned it out accordingly. Assad did make a huge mistake & seems to me to be relieved he is out of it. Him & all his close family members has been in Moscow for his sons graduation. 2 weeks prior. His family members didn't return with him. Not a single Russian or Iranian casualty. But most importantly the new North/South transport corridor very recently opened. Taking out any need for Iran or Russia to protect Syria. The amount of finances & resources to keep Syria under control. Has been given to NATO & Israel. Along with the many civil wars, terrorist attacks & refugees, they so keenly want. Even Assad, the reluctant politician & ruler. The devoted family man, can spend the rest of his life devoting his time to his family. Who is it that's suffered the strategic defeat again? Don't underestimate the power of the North/South land corridor, all the way to Africa from St Petersburg. Why did I let myself doubt, the greatest leader of our times???

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On Syria, I highly suggest reading this excellent article on Syria: The Region which provides the historical context missing from everything being currently written and opined, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria_(region)

It's possibly the best Wiki item on that site.

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If this theater was expected why did Russia furiously bomb the Islamists in Idlib? I still regard this as an attempt to join a fight of the SAA.

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There was absolutely no expectation that Syria would collapse so rapidly; so, Russia, Hezbollah and Iran did what they could until it was clear the situation was hopeless.

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As I said: not to fight battles you can’t win is the first step to victory.

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Maybe part of the show? Maybe it would have been too obvious otherwise? And was there maybr a specific group targetted?

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I'm still digesting the whole mess, and it was clearly more complex than seasoned commentators had believed. But one thing to BRICS aspirants in ASEAN should be made clear, you need to clean your houses of western NGOs and rein in fifth columnists or in short order, well, you should know what will happen. Being nice is not a strategy with the west.

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Two words amongst many for the West: Wicked; Diabolical. And yes, all things connected with the West merit purging, even their businesses. Sovereignty must be placed at the head of the table. The only things about Western businesses that can’t be exactly duplicated are their specific, trademarked, products; everything else about them can be done with domestic assets.

Wicked and Diabolical need to meet Ruthless and Relentless.

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Russia and China can replace the internet protocols around TCP/IP and create a BRICS net. HUAWEI can implement the hardware infrastructure as they are most advanced and cost effective. Both China and Russia have the IP and technical capacity to implement a host of services without necessarily duplicating western platforms. The global majority has the ability to scale up, while the west will find a shrinking pool in which to foster development. This is a quarantine rather than an iron curtain. As you point out the west’s technical dominance and IP are in decline. It’s hilarious but the AI panacea is turning GIGO.

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Why change the protocols around TCP/IP? The protocols should have even better protection mechanisms. Unless it may never get secure enough. If you make something proprietary to BRICS, it will also be hacked in time.

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The Chinese have reworked wireless comms and come up with an improvement over WIFI/Bluetooth. TCP/IP was created decades ago, ditto UNIX. Huawei's Harmony OS uses a scaled approach across device classes. Look it up, there's plenty of doco you can go through. As for that business of hacking, well, we'll see.

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I fully agree, but it doesn’t help the western sheep as their mad rulers are going to use it as an argument against these countries for not being democratic, authoritarian.

Only a minority is aware of the double standards, the hypocrisy and the hubris of these awful (authoritarian) rulers

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Moving east?

US aerospace forces are all over that place.

Whose jets engaged the Iranian cruise missiles and drones enrout to Israel last spring?

That fact implied RF and Iran stay out of the al Qaeda push last week.

If RF could have saved Assad would it be a pyrrhic victory much shorter lived than US "winning" Tet 1968?

Leave Sunni extremism to the US.

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To clarify - I see that the illegal occupier of Palestine is now moving further east. I expect they will be enjoying an uninterrupted breakfast in Damascus soon and they are just waiting for their jihadi janitors to clean out the place. Its a big game play and we aren't in it.

Apologies for being obscure.

Now geopolitical gymnasts might appreciate Laura Ru here: https://t.me/LauraRuHK/9442

I find her absolutely clear and sharp and on the good side and she does not swamp with constant messages nor indulge in blathering Putin fan club stuff.

The above link reads:-

Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin: interview to ‘Razvedchik’ (‘Intelligence Officer’) news magazine

One of the possible scenarios in the medium term envisions the Western countries attempting to unleash a global armed conflict with an epicentre in Eurasia. That would be the global capital’s tried and true strategy of dealing with a crisis. It is encouraging, however, that Washington and London are by no means the only ones who are bound by what they call shared values. There are new, equally resilient groups of countries in the world. There are more responsible players who, if united, will be able to resist the West’s adventurous plans and resolve any problems independently, keeping the planet from sliding toward World War III. Keep reading 👉 https://globalsouth.co/2024/12/10/director-of-russias-foreign-intelligence-service-sergey-naryshkin-interview-to-razvedchik-intelligence-officer-news-magazine/

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The SVR journal’s name is translated as “Scout.” I see Narishkin has given another long year-ending interview as he did last year, just published today. That just added to my workload tomorrow,

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See it as an opportunity to work on something you are good at😊 and above all: enjoy (despite the topic and state of the world)

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Work brother.... ;)

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Superb rundown from Pepe. Explains a lot. Thank you so much, Karl. Complements this analysis from Alastair Crooke. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgEgHVtRbg4

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Dec 10Edited

Lot of extrapolations in there by Pepe too... Repeating my own some from the other thread:

Russia - unfortunately joined Assad himself in avoiding a confrontation with Israel for too long. And now making a relatively graceful withdrawal from this situation, under the circumstances. The diplomatic statements about the 'oppositon', and about a 'negotiated transfer of power' are the purest fluff tho. Silver lining in this, is Ukraine might see more Wagner elements returning from their extended vacation.

Iran, as clear since Trump got elected again, must set up to fight a defensive war vs US. Not a proxy war but the real thing. They're surely concerned about Russia's support being halfway, or especially China's support. A lot of third parties would be happy to see a US/Israel vs Iran slugfest. With the notable exception of all the actual Persian Gulf powers.

Re the pipeline politics - another observation, is Qatar in the past 10 years invested heavily in LNG terminals, and that investment now bearing fruit. Massive export capacity coming on line for them right about now-ish, midway thru a 4-5 year ramp up period IIRC. This LNG export expansion second only to the US. They're not there for their own pipe, but to stop everyone else's.

Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon unfortunately in an extra dire situation now. Jordan the only plausible destination for the population, as EU/Brussels oh-so-graciously told the Syrian population to go somewhere else. No idea what effects the refugee flows will have.

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Lavrov noted Russia and Qatar’s working together in the Gas Collective in his remarks at Doha prior to the presser. which now has an official English translation, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1986153/

It ought to be read with Lavrov’s words at the Doha Forum which are now officially translated, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1986144/

The 38-minute video at the above link is also in English and displays the body language Escobar refers to in his essay.

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Perhaps some attempt to mutually refrain from messing with each other's sea transport routes?

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The USN is very weak compared to Russia/China combined. The initial Maritime Empires have died and are being replaced by a Continental/Maritime tandem far more potent than North America.

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i think in answer to your question on russia-erdogan dynamics, i can't see russia challenging erdogan directly.. maybe it will come out in the question period that you cite, but i doubt it..

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The Russian-Turk "dance" is about 500 years old, older if we go back to the Mongols. Over those years, we see two empires going in different directions both ebbing and growing until they came into conflict with each other that ended in 1917 when both lost their initial empires and began anew. The remarkable thing is that since 1922, the Russian and Turks have remained at peace despite the Cold War. What's hampered Turkey is the lack of resources that enable industrialization to provide the means to support its continually growing population. Long ago it became clear to me that Russia and Turkey ought to become allied in the same manner that Russia and China are now allied, energy resources being what both clearly needed to become modern. IMO, Putin and his team saw the same thing I did and chose to change Russia's Turkish policy based upon what they saw as Turkey's long-term national interests, which is to team with Russia in a manner similar to what Russia saw with Europe and its energy and other resources dependency. The problem as Escobar continues to demonstrate is Erdogan's Ottoman Revivalism--his desire to be Sultan. Russia's Turkish policy continuity seems solid, and Erdogan won't remain in power forever. The question: Who replaces him and what will his views be regarding Ottomanism and NATO, provided Erdogan hasn't exited NATO by then?

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As long as you hear Erdogan saying Palestine must be free you know he's still allied w/NATO/USUKIS. We'll know if does something instead of talking the talk and only then will we know that he's for the people or the globalists, I won't hold my breath for him

being with the people.

I know jack about Turkey but I imagine the generals are all in bed with NATO/USUKIS

and the people are w/Palestine and the resistance just like with every NATO country. Until the resistance resists the what seem like daily coup's by the empire and come to the fight prepared what needs to be done, the staus quo will prevail

As Karls states what seems like a perfect fit for Erdogan w/Russia, isn't perfect enough I guess

The canary in the coal mine is that no matter what the empire says, it's flat out broke.

Wait till the DOGE, Musk, Vivek shitshow begins, only then will the people realize that they've been taken to the cleaners by the uniparty in DC

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hard to know where the generals support rests... maybe nato, but i am not sure of that... bottom line - russia and turkey are separated by the black sea.. it is not that far as a crow flies, from sinop to crimea... it makes sense that they are friends and work together with each other... turkey needs energy - whether nuclear, or gas/oil and etc.... the russian folks regularly visit turkey as tourists.. it is a win win..

as for erdogan - he is the consummate politician in that he knows how to survive.. he is like a type of dictator and knows how to press all the right buttons to stay in power..

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Within Conservatism, why would you want to change leaders more than once a decade? Note no term limits in US Constitution—it’s a Conservative construct, not Liberal, although it’s called the latter. This can become a very long comment, but as “1984” informs us, modern tools can keep any regime in power a very long time. Madison Avenue politics is how Wolff describes it wonderfully in his chats with Nima, last week’s show in particular.

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Every four years the same dance, making many promises, painting the other side black and afterwards we have the same politics. Better have a good leader for many years than this theatre every 4 years. The only problem is to find a good leader, especially here in the west (making exception for Orban)

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I prefer the Maduro type, a president for the people

Why the Trump followers believe he'll be any better this time

around is a head scratcher

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Just a thought here, I could be totally off base, but the age of the "politician" might be over.

The consummate politician might not want to screw over that neighbor that gives it a win win. Though as it lies now it appears as if he's getting away with it, the ball is in Putins court

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I just replied to james who had a similar comment. How’s this for irony: Today “Vladimir Putin chaired the annual meeting of the Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society. and human rights. The meeting was held via videoconference and timed to coincide with International Human Rights Day.”

An event I’d normally provide to readers. Here are Putin’s initial opening remarks:

“You are well aware of people's concerns and needs, and you have constant, direct contact with them, and help, support, and involvement in their problems always remain an absolute priority.

“I understand that sometimes it is very difficult to achieve a fair solution to the issues that people ask you, but in most cases you cope with these tasks, strive to do everything that depends on you. And here, not the least role is played by your authority, the trust of people that you have earned with your daily hard work, and, of course, perseverance and ability to defend your position, convince other people of it, look for common approaches and find compromises.

“The main thing is that you are always on the side of the truth, on the side of the interests of a person and a citizen. In Russian, there is a beautiful word – intercession. It fully applies to your business as well. Thank you for your unwavering response to the requests of our citizens, for your concern and sincere generosity.”

And that comes on the heels of a travesty for millions of other citizens whose rights were and continue to be trampled upon 13+ years and counting and even longer for Palestinians. We’ll soon discover what policy changes Russia will apply.

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i like this word 'intercession'... i like what it represents and think it is the way forward..

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Food for thought there, maybe the USUKIS might take heed of these words, though again it's the action that's needed.

Maybe they're just counting on the empire going BK, but that'll take some time and cost countless millions of lifes

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Very good; broke, stone cold broke. China is now refusing to supply critical materials to the US. The US has a long way to go to restart manufacturing and so far hasn't put in any reforms that would rein in a parasitic oligarchy; meanwhile, they'll start fighting each other. We'll soon know if DOGE is a scam; maybe it's Musk's ego talking, wanting to become a Venetian Doge of the garrison USA.

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hey karl.. i concur with your commentary.. thanks..

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Turkey under Erdogan is way over-extended financially, and has double crossed basically everyone, and they'll make deals again someday. But this is definitely a low low point.

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they are playing a complicated dance and are in a type of awkward place, so their is that.. nothing is ever easy and simple, but i think for turkey this is especially the case.. a lot of folks have had a love hate attitude toward erdogan for a very long time... everyone is looking out for their own self interests in spite of what they say publicly..

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“Lola smiled and took me by the hand

and said ‘Pretty boy, I’m going to make you a man’”

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Nothing like people’s liberation! — “All that leads to the predominant scenario of a carefully calculated CIA/MI6/Mossad controlled demolition, complete with a non-stop weaponizing flow, Ukrainian training of takfiris on the use of FPV kamikaze drones, and Samsonites full of cash bribing high-ranking Syrian officials. “

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Imperialism smashes more innocents under its boots.

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Exactly!

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here's the article translated into French - like almost all Pepe Escobar's articles, among others.

https://open.substack.com/pub/ssofidelis/p/syrie-post-mortem-terreur-occupation?r=egm99&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

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A really excellent article! Thank you, I am amazed there are not more comments here.

There is an excellent interview with Scott Ritter, he shares a lot of your observations, link here for anyone who might be interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mIAJTVxtqc

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He has a different way to see things. Actually I said nothing anywhere to anyone but I would say now that the Doha conference confirms the Foreign ministry was outside the information circle. Anger of Lavrov very clear.

Therefore Astana is Minsk and turkey that provides military aid to kill Russians behaves in the same way as the NATO partners, agreements are for reconstitution of forces not to find peaceful solutions. Is this even a surprise to anyone? When do we learn?

And minimum for 15 years the nazis work, collaborate and everything else with terrorists from Soviet republics, zionists of Israel and their terrorists, turkey and not only because of NATO management.

January 25 will be very interesting.

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the Palestinians being moved to a broken up syria, i wonder if this terrible future will come to pass

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Thst is all terribly complicated... and therefore most likely not true..

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