At the Edge of the Abyss Again

Lavrov’s Iranian counterpart Ahmed Bagheri-Kyani phoned him this morning to talk about the most recent atrocities committed by the Zionists and that Iran would invoke UN Article 51 in its response. The PR MFA issued said the following:

On August 1, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had a telephone conversation with Acting Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ahmed Bagheri-Kani at the initiative of the Iranian side.

The parties condemned the assassination of the head of the Hamas Politburo in Tehran during his stay at the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President M. Pezeshkian. They pointed out the unacceptability of political assassinations and the extremely dangerous consequences of such actions, which are fraught with a sharp escalation in the zone of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and a landslide degradation of the regional situation. The organisers of such provocations clearly hope to disrupt the already stalled negotiation process and are betting on involving the United States in military operations in order to forget the UN resolutions on the creation of a Palestinian state.

Sergey Lavrov called on all parties without exception influencing the situation in the Gaza Strip and in the Middle East as a whole to prevent actions that could lead to further destabilisation of the situation and entail new civilian casualties.

Additionally, Hezbollah’s Nasrallah gave a very important speech that Al-Mayadeen reported on here. A few snippets:

Announcing a new phase of the confrontation, Sayyed Nasrallah said: "We are facing a major battle where matters have surpassed the issue of support fronts," announcing, "We are in an open battle on all fronts, and it has entered a new phase." He emphasized that the escalation of the new phase "depends on the reactions of the [Israeli] occupation…."

Sayyed Nasrallah announced that the Lebanese support front would return actively to what it was by Friday morning, explaining that attacks were paused until concluding the funeral processions of the martyred Hezbollah leader and Lebanese civilians….

Hezbollah's chief revealed that the group has been contacted by countries and parties around the world to either talk it out of responding or threaten against it, adding that Hezbollah made it clear that this is not up for debate.

He declared that the Israeli regime and its backers "must await our inevitable response" and that "there is no debate or argument about this."

"The decision is now in the hands of the frontline, its circumstances, and the opportunities it offers. We are looking for a solid and well-studied response, not a formal one."

I expect a fully coordinated response from the entire Arc of Resistance plus Iran, and quite possibly not just at Zionist targets but also at Outlaw US Empire assets since it’s 100% complicit in all that’s happening in West Asia.

The Cradle has two very good articles that demand reading by those wanting more understanding of the conflicts dynamics: “Israel isn’t crazy, it’s just MAD: Since before its inception, Israel has very deliberately, very rationally pursued a ‘MAD strategy’ toward its foes and allies alike, training them to accept its bad behavior at all times” and “Walid Jumblatt: Key Lebanese politico switches sides as war looms: Druze ‘kingmaker’ Walid Jumblatt has made yet another strategic turn in his long history of shifting alliances, throwing his considerable political weight – and that of Lebanon’s Druze community – behind Hezbollah as war with Israel heats up.”

Dmitry Medvedev’s short commentary on X was picked up and republished globally:

The knot is tightening in the Middle East. Sorry for the innocent lives lost. They are but hostages of a disgusting state: the USA. Meanwhile, it’s clear to everyone that a full-scale war is the only way to a shaky peace in the region.

Some, like RT, spun Medvedev’s words thusly, although it did cite his full text a few paragraphs later:

Peace in the Middle East will only be achieved through a major conflict involving regional power brokers.

As readers ought to know by now, my position is the only way to get the Zionists to conform to the laws governing humanity is for force to be applied, and not the force being applied by the Arc of Resistance. I would question his end point of it ending in “a shaky peace” because as Iran has said what must be waged is a SMO—language that was deliberately chosen for the SMO’s stated goals—demilitaization and denazification, which in this case the latter would be dezionistification. I’m sure the backchannel lines are humming between Moscow and Beijing.

Meanwhile, F-16s have finally been delivered to Ukraine and supposedly put to use in defending Ukraine’s deep rear airspace. This development was commented upon by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and reported by Sputnik:

"The problem is in escalation, the problem is that there are no restraints left. American assurances that no such decisions have been made and no indulgences have been given to Kiev, these assurances are worthless, we do not believe what we hear from Washington on the matter. We see opposite things in practice, it needs to stop, it should be understood that the price of all this will be further growth of tensions, new losses, new tragedies," Ryabkov said in a televised appearance on the Rossiya 1 broadcaster.

Another Sputnik item says: “'The Only Answer is to Destroy Them': How Russia Plans to Handle Ukraine's Western-Supplied F-16s,” which ought to be a rather simple task given the F-16’s inferiority to Russian jets and their systems. The current situation on the line-of-contact continues to be the same as it’s been for the last two months although the pace of Ukie retreats is quickening as it loses more and more soldiers and equipment—Russian MoD states Ukie loses for July at 60,000 KIA and wounded. Yet Zelensky refuses or perhaps legally no longer has the power to rescind his order of no negotiating with Russia, which is the first step that will be required for any talks to commence. And you just read Ryabkov’s assessment of Outlaw US Empire trustworthiness.

You can be sure Medvedev’s position is shared by others of his rank within Russia’s government. Yes, Lavrov asked for restraint, but IMO I don’t think he really believes that possible at this point. Nor do I.

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