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Christopher Jones's avatar

Hello Karl and thank you for your interesting comments.

The MoA is now inundated to 75% by unknown members who spend their time arguing trivialities or insulting each other.

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Don Firineach's avatar

It's a bar. One doesn't have to converse with everyone in it from day to day - sit quietly and listen - and every now and then some great insights emerge .... then listen, learn, and converse if one has something useful to say - there are a few loud assholes in every bar and a few narcissists in love with the hollow sound of their own voices. Chill.

And don't forget to pay 'b' - the barman!

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james's avatar

don't worry... karls site will suffer the same fate if it gets too big.. those destabilizing moa are doing it intentionally - paid to do it... it is unfortunate many continue to talk with these same posters who show up with a new name every day.. today it is 'salami' tomorrow, a different poster... it is unfortunate..

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

I’ve already had a few.

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dornoch altbinhax's avatar

For over a decade the Saker and MoA were on my daily reading list. With things being what they are in Germany perhaps Bernard at MoA will come to a similar conclusion or migrate outside the EU's jurisdiction. Digital controls are being erected in many of the western countries as passive profiling moves to active suppression/repression.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

Been that way for at least 8 years!

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Chuck Nasmith's avatar

Israel is the New Nazi. 5 iiiii's, My reps. in USA are Zionists, not American. Traitors. Keep on Karl, B etc. !

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Johann Goergen's avatar

Instead of renaming the "Gulf of Mexico" to "Gulf of America" President Water Buffalo needs to rename the USA to USI: The United State of Israel.

"To find out who rules over you, find out who you are NOT allowed to criticize."

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james's avatar

that statement is so true..

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Chuck Nasmith's avatar

Make Palestine Palestine Again.

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Ismaele's avatar

Regarding the first round of direct US-Iran negotiations, please see my latest article, where I also talk about direct Turkey-Israel talks: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/indirect-us-iran-negotiations?r=25fc37

I am also translating some interesting articles related to Trump's tariffs from Italian to English. They will be uploaded next week. Interested readers may want to subscribe to my substack to stay up-to-date. :)

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Acco Hengst's avatar

Wall Street is not too pleased but not expressing it so that anyone would notice.

I will present private evidence from my personal financial accounts to your e-mail account with an explanation. I was very surprised. Something with action in it?

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Don Firineach's avatar

What a week to 10 days!

Looks like the US did not have the cards - folded twice - weakness - and the RoW can smell it.

The oligarchic cabinet in US appears to have little to no understanding of Chinese culture or the centrality of 'face' in its dealings. The language from the Chinese is the strongest, and most cutting, that I have ever witnessed - and the cartoon on X by the PRC ambassador in Washington exemplifies it - no kow-towing to the Big Bully. They had more than enough of that with the English and the Japanese - no more. And Modi is now courting Xi. BRICS have power - and are clearly willing to collectively use it.

On Iran, as I briefly noted on MoA - it is central to future trade routes, let alone trade, to the Indian Ocean for both PRC and RF. An attack on Iran is a geo-economic attack on both. The US clearly has a strategy of attempting to control all global trade routes - and there will most certainly be blow-back. As noted on MoA, hope there are some sane heads in the Pentagon - with the balls to stand up to the Bully and talk some sense.

Now, let's get that 10 yr up to 5 on Monday and wait for Larry Fink's next little apocalyptic wibbly-wobbly on Bloomberg ... could be more exciting than The Masters - c'mon Rory!

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Note how Xi has allowed his subordinates to utter the harsh language while staying above it all. Didn’t see the cartoon.

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Thanks Don!! Very apt!

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dornoch altbinhax's avatar

Just as Putin lets his subordinates use the more direct and harsh language. It's completely lost on the orange buffoon.

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Johann Goergen's avatar

"China has decided to exert its geopolitical weight openly for the first time since the CPC beat the KMT in 1949." In my view: China was FORCED to EITHER stand up as the proud and independent nation that it is, OR to "kiss Trump's butt" (his words, the man is a gold mine of idiotic behavior). Easy choice. The tired old Water Buffalo (no offense to actual Water Buffaloes), has NO cards and does not even know it.

MOA is a source of great insights, but the tech used on the site is slightly less than state-of-the-art. Thanks for your thoughts, sir.

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dornoch altbinhax's avatar

Wordpress like PERL and PHP were great in earlier days of the internet.

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Godfree Roberts's avatar

Bravo! Good work!

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Truth Seeking Missile's avatar

Since China has 1.5 billion people it's better for humanity for it to succeed than for America which benefits only 330 million people.

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Christopher's avatar

Good stuff, thanks!

As far as China and preserving multi-lateralism goes, I see a couple of choices:

1. Carve out a regional block with Russia, India, SE Asia, Africa, and parts of the ME. Trade with those countries represents a substantial chunk of the world's GDP, probably the majority.

Pros: less risk. No need to deal with Latin America, which is in the US backyard and more easily embargoed by the US Navy.

Cons: gives up Europe, South America, Australia as trading partners.

2. Go full BRICS and include Brazil, Mexico, Spain, other EU-refuseniks like Hungary and Slovenia.

More risk, more reward.

Either choice will require a total separation from the US-dominated legal and financial system. All future trade must be sanction-proofed with non-US dollar denominated currencies and outside of any long-arm jurisdictional games. Make it so that the only way to stop trade between BRICS nations is literally a US Navy destroyer sinking the cargo ship. That would force the US to be in too many places, an impossibility both in terms of time and space.

As long as China clings to any hope of dealing with the US financial system, they won't have a path to victory.

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Since the SMO began, I’ve posited the world fracturing into two Blocs—Outlaw US Empire/NATO and the Global Majority. Trump’s helping that process along, a process he began during his first term.

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J Huizinga's avatar

Do a little research on one of the two most long-time efforts that has borne fruit for China and the world as whole. This is the launch, among selected friendly national, of a global settlement blockchain-based system that bypasses Swift. Built on mBridge, it has been pilot tested — payment clearing will be same day as it avoids western banks that currently charge fees and delay settlement for 5 days (remind anyone of their local bank?). Though the idea originated with BIS, China was an early partner and completely surpassed mBridge (which was a concept without plumbing). China sped ahead with a real life product, BIS dropped out to develop their own infrastructure (waiting, waiting).

Best of all, transactions will be opaque to the west — with no price discovery. Pity the midwestern farmers who won’t know what and how much to plant — I do. With their trusting natures, they believed Citibank and John Deere (vile company). I’m sure Xi has a twinge of regret as he was an exchange student who stayed with a farm family in Iowa that he went back to visit decades years later.

The beyond brilliant Zoltan Pozsar was the first to point out that, in one of Xi’s speeches, he mentioned mBridge — and Zoltan predicted this eventual launch back in 2023.

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Richard Roskell's avatar

China is antithetical to 'carving out blocs.' They believe that's the path to conflicts, and history does not prove them wrong.

China will not willingly give up Europe, Australia or South America. These are all important trading partners for China.

China will - in fact already has - created an alternative banking system for international trade. It has many advantages over Swift. 1. The transaction is completed in seconds, rather than the current days. 2. The fees are very small, compared to the typical six bank fee structure in Swift. 3. The transaction is private. It cannot be traced by governments.

The Chinese banking system won't take over immediately, and will undoubtedly be strongly opposed by the USA and its allies. But it's inevitable that it will become widely used.

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Christopher's avatar

I am aware of the Chinese alternative to Swift. It needs to be expedited and rolled out quickly. During the Biden administration, Blinken and his cronies constantly threatened Chinese banks that do business with Russia. I have no idea why these banks were still connected to the Western financial system, but I suspect it was for convenience. There is no technical blocker to ditching Swift anymore.

Let's get it done, BRICS!

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Both the Chinese and Russian systems are working, there just isn’t a whole lot of hullaballoo, especially in BigLie Media.

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Richard V's avatar

True China is not about "Blocs" but this is a "hang together or each hang separately" moment. And China is the strongest player. Maybe even reach out beyond BRICs. A good time to be everyone's friend and come up with a common strategy. Don't try to placate ("kiss the ass of" as has been said) the Orange One individually. This is the time to unite. This is the time for China step forward as the unifying voice of dignity and reason. A golden opportunity, actually.

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Agreed!

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Don Midwest's avatar

Karl linked Guancha.cn. This is the first time I have gone there.

Interesting article on Trump "expert" Peter Navarro

He has a PhD in Economics, taught for many years and written several books which viscously attacks China. In his 2019 book he made up a character who he called a "trade strategist" and later admitted it was a joke. A book features his discussion with his fake character, i.e., himself. His fake expert was used to make even more harsh comments about China. The author of the article thinks that his China policy (and my view, kissing Trump's ass) got him a job as a key assistant on the trade policy. Interesting article. Easy to read.

https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=1421340

"Navarro: The path to the cabinet paved with paranoia and lies"

by Flowers Yesterday 18:06 Reposted from "Direct News"

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Yes, many interesting articles at that media outlet. It also hosts the “This is China” TV chat program I’ve featured a few times.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

"foolish for Trump, beneficial for Humanity"

Perhaps Trump's intent is beneficence for humanity? In that case he's been wildly successful. It's hard to argue he is acting capriciously, ergo he has a plan. The contents of that plan, not widely shared, is the subject of much conjecture, mostly incorrect, and much pearl clutching. And, no, I don't have a fucking clue what he's up to. I voted for him solely because he has the ability to act as a change agent.

The meat and potatoes is that Trump is trying to take out "the blob" the "deep state", the "globalists" what have you. There is much obfuscation going on but every single action he has taken conforms to that primary strategic objective.

In this plan, there are "winners," but they're not the same winners as the DNC/WEF/Soros claque. Hence all the pearl clutching. Nothing on God's green earth will stop the tides of change.

I despair of your analysis to write off Trump's team as mad men simply because they do not champion the same objectives as you nor follow a path you might advise. But you are aware that he is realizing positive change in some intransigent areas. And failing spectacularly in others...still a damn sight better than Barak O'Bummer and the ice cream gobbling pedophile(s) the Dems have on offer.

Embrace the change. Don't fight it!

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

You don't appear to know that Bessent, Trump's Treasury Secretary, was once a partner of Soros and got several millions in seed money from Soros to start his own hedge fund.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

He was also a guest at Chelsea Clinton's wedding...and Soro's (perhaps successful) attempt to buy his allegiance was before the blob compromised every agency available to them to slander, malign and even attempt to assassinate him. I'd say that deal fell through.

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Richard Roskell's avatar

I forget who said it, but the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." For Trump the punch was last week's exodus from US Treasuries. It's not exactly clear who is dumping them, but there's a good chance the sellers are widespread. Foreign nations, foreign companies, individuals, even American banks. The general economic consensus is that US Treasuries are no longer the safe haven they were in the past. No one wants to hold them when inflation is up and the dollar is falling.

The disastrous effects of the exit from US Treasuries were the direct cause of Trump putting his tariff regime on hold for 90 days. The tariffs had some sense behind them, but the utterly chaotic and punitive way he's implemented them has spooked everyone, worldwide. People are even fleeing to the Japanese yen for stability!

It's water under the bridge, but if Trump had introduced higher tariffs in a methodical way, he could've lowered the value of the US dollar incrementally without alarming the Treasuries market. That would've kept the yield low on new Treasuries and kept the repo market going. Instead he went all-in on tariffs, causing people to sell their long-term Treasuries, which drives up the yield, which is going to add costs to new US government borrowing.

Crazy times!

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

Subtlety was never a Trump trait.

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Richard Roskell's avatar

Not even a little bit. He is as crude as they come.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

Crude? hmmm. What's that got to do with anything. Obama was slicker than owl shit and was a mass murdering traitor who actively undermined the Constitution. If you choose to judge people by outward appearances, you may be easily misled.

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Richard Roskell's avatar

You're right to upbraid me for that comment. I should've left it at "Not even a little bit."

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dornoch altbinhax's avatar

You have a good point, and it's about having an actual plan to realistically revive industrial production without thinking that ransacking other countries was an answer. The US has consistently shown malign intentions by literally using force to take over others industry; one that comes to mind is Alstom (France). TikTok as a competitor to US big tech and a forcible sale is another. There's no such thing as a partnership with the US on subservience.

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Ed's avatar

Cash is becoming king!

When things [equities/risk assets] go down (from speculative heights/valuations) get into cash with Warren Buffet!

Long treasuries, as with long commercial are seeing greater term and rate risks. I doubt sovereign added that much to a rush to cash off low yield long bonds.

Tariff tirade is a trip now a root cause.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

I honestly can't say if Trump actually has a plan other than to trash the joint. It's the ultimate Burning Man fantasy of destroying crony Capitalism. I'm surprised more green haired trust fund babies don't support him.

Bear in mind, he's a huge World Wide Wrestling fan.

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Johann Goergen's avatar

With you all the way and waiting for the next genius move by your hero, popcorn in hand.

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Whocanibenow's avatar

I'm not actually a fan of Trump. I just like to balance people's o'er weaning dislike as it undermines a lot of otherwise potentially solid perception. Trump is not interested in the dogma of globalism. That's all. I think it's great because the old way was cruel, demeaning and resulted in the immiseration of millions if not billions of people.

I cheer the destruction of that system. My belief is Trump thinks he's got his hand on the lever of destiny. More fool him. He is simply a face at the front of larger cycles of change. Most of his ideas are crap TBH. They just happen to advance the decline of a sclerotic despotic system of exploitation :-)

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Richard Roskell's avatar

Great comment!

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La Bastille 1788's avatar

Interesting debate, because RalfB. has hit the nail on the head.

I'm a qualified industrial technician from the 1970s.

The existence of a conscientious and courageous working class that doesn't just follow directives but takes pride in the quality of its work is at thé Root.

This requires a collective consciousness of participating in, and above all benefiting from, this work.

Why have the Chinese succeeded? Because 3 or 4 generations have worked under the direction of a state that has devoted the surplus value extracted to the common development of well-being and infrastructure.

Why is Europe in disarray? Because two or three generations have worked to absorb potential surplus value into financial pyramids.

I live in Germany, a country that once qualified the bulk of its workforce through apprenticeships ( Ausbildung ) and developed the standards (DIN : Deutsche Industrie Normen) that enabled even the smallest producers to participate in the collective industrial boom.

Today, apprenticeships only concern the children of immigrants, and “traditional” German has other ( financial) .ambitions.

The German industrial worker is above all a foreigner (Ausländer). He can reproduce the norm, but lacks a few generations of work culture ( Qualität, Fleißig, Pünktlichkeit....) to improve it.

Becoming a production engineer is no longer a German dream, and no longer brings social recognition.

We are now 3 generations behind China.

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ann watson's avatar

Yalta being the place where the first Iran Nuclear Deal was done ?

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Karl Sanchez's avatar

No. Yalta is in Crimea and the place where in early 1945 FDR, Stalin and Churchill met to hammer out the finer points to the UN Charter and the end-of war actions. It’s infamous for the “spheres of influence” concept that was floated and put into play despite the contradictions contained in the UN Charter.

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ann watson's avatar

ah, I didn't know anything about that.

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Crush Limbraw's avatar

It's not that complicated, folks - ECON 101 is nothing more than REALITY!

"It’s a simple and obvious power equation. When you have nothing to lose, and you’re the one who owns the market in which everyone is interested, then you’re in control. No country with a trade deficit with the USA has any leverage at all, because the US is obviously better off not trading with it than continuing to trade with it on the basis of the system that has impoverished and hollowed-out the US economy.

This is why the threats of returning the favor are so empty and stupid. The USA would BENEFIT from pure autarky, so trade restrictions are not a viable threat. The President’s move is brilliant, because it not only protects the US markets, it prevents US companies from leaving the USA as well."

https://voxday.net/2025/04/12/trade-deficit-whip-hand/

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Christopher's avatar

So, why did Trump just cave on electronics, phones, and microchips, then?

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Crush Limbraw's avatar

Since I quoted Vox Day - you might check out his site.

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Crush Limbraw's avatar

UPDATE on an ECONOMICS LESSON:

https://voxday.net/2025/04/12/trade-deficit-whip-hand/

It’s a simple and obvious power equation. When you have nothing to lose, and you’re the one who owns the market in which everyone is interested, then you’re in control. No country with a trade deficit with the USA has any leverage at all, because the US is obviously better off not trading with it than continuing to trade with it on the basis of the system that has impoverished and hollowed-out the US economy.

This is why the threats of returning the favor are so empty and stupid. The USA would BENEFIT from pure autarky, so trade restrictions are not a viable threat. The President’s move is brilliant, because it not only protects the US markets, it prevents US companies from leaving the USA as well.

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