Alastair Crooke has done something I’ve never seen him do—update his most recent writings and conversations with a new column less than 48 hours later.
Karl, you are indispensable. A thousand thanks for what you do. If I follow the bread crumbs, an escalation of the war in Ukraine is necessary to distract from Israel's continuing genocidal madness. I believe you are correct about China holding the key to the Middle East. But the key is not a Genocide Convention--which I believe would be another ineffective talking and condemnation forum. The hold that the US has on Egypt and Saudi Arabia--particularly Egypt--must be definitively broken. This is the swing element--the essential tectonic shift. That hold is military support (ie weaponry, military technology & security guarantees), which Russia and China can replace, and--and most of all--financial. Here is where China comes in. China must offer to fully replace all US financial arrangements--loans, export markets, aid, investment opportunities, development-- in short, the works. This is the actual heart of the Hegemon's power. Frankly, Israel and the Hegemon will both be defeated eventually anyway, but the road without this Chinese intervention will be longer and messier.
The Genocide Convention happened long ago and is part of UN/International Law. "The Convention entered into force on 12 January 1951 and has 152 state parties as of 2022."
Egypt became a BRICS member as of January 1, 2024, and Russia has a long history of both economic and military relations. The Saudis are also members and want to join SCO, too.
I know all that. Russia's connection to Egypt is not even remotely comparable to America's--roughly 1.5 billion in military aid and another half billion in economic assistance annually. The need for financial support goes light years beyond BRICS and SCO. The IMF just approved an 8 billion dollar emergency bailout for Egypt. In other words they are bought and paid for--and face financial ruin if they don't play ball. That's power, and until China and Russia play at that level it's going to be very tough going.
Call me a dreamer, but if Egypt could be encouraged AND empowered to repudiate that IMF ‘blackmail’ loan and other dollar-denominated debts they could host a multi-national coalition to invade Rafah and proceed to liberate Gaza. With Ansarallah, KSA, (yes, on the same side!) Libya, Iraq and others who have suffered at the hands of Zionist and Western Hegemonic pillagers. Iran, Türkiye and Russia contributing material support (and military materiel), China (hopefully) to step up with loan guarantees or other financial assistance. Hezbollah takes the helm in the liberation of the West Bank, with reinforcement from Syria and support from previously mentioned parties. Al-Aqsa flood writ large, if you will. It feels as if the stars are in a favorable alignment, and with swift action the Israelis will ’cave’ without much resistance rather than suffer the fate they are inflicting on the Palestinians. “From the River to the Sea!”
You're right on target. Egypt, with a population of over 100 million SHOULD be the natural leader of the Arab world--and it was until Sadat sold it down the river in the 70s, which is why the Muslim Brotherhood killed him. Sadat switched sides from Russia to the US in return for a peace deal and an annual chunk of money. Went from Migs to F-16s, etc, etc. Cut Syria and the Palestinians off at the knees--a catastrophe for the Egyptian people and the Arab world. Frankly, ordinary Egyptians are ready to take on Israel--but Egyptian leaders know the economic consequences from the West will be devastating. The problem is, yes, you can repudiate the debt, but their economy is a wreak and they desperately need a long term infusion of financial help. The IMF and World Bank is the only game in town unless, and this is the biggie, the new big dog steps in. Unfortunately it may be too early for this to happen on the world financial stage. The dollar is still strong and the yuan is fast gaining but has yet to catch up. Plus the issue of a mechanism of settling international balance of trade disparities has yet to be solved. But your thinking is on target. For the big shift to happen there has to be a new financial order with a huge new lending apparatus free from Western dominance.
Brigden is of course part of Farage's Reform- Britain's very own MAGA populist party- who seem to be leveraging the proxy war and talk of escalation to gain support for their nationalism and independence from NATO.
Crooke has spoken of the WEF in ways that make me suspicious that he's propagating the agenda hoax that creates fear of left wing one world government. Which actually keeps power in the hands of the powerful ie with US fossil fuel and animal ag cartels.
The elephant in the room is that open borders and falling living standards will soon seem like child's play. The more we sanction and isolate from BRICS the faster our economies, already in recession, will tank. The West is dying and the great symbiosis of Russia and China are now deciding how the world is going to be. Unless we find leaders who will take us into this world- we're screwed.
I've read and listed to Crooke for many years now and have never sensed him promoting any WEF agenda item. Since we know about our future economic direction, we can prepare for what occurs. I did that 20 years ago and currently am debating how much more I should do.
Hiya Karl. I’m not saying that Crooke is promoting any WEF agenda item! I’m saying that he spoke about the WEF like it was a thing and not a vehicle used by industry funded groups like the Heartland Institute to instil fear of green policies, create division and resistance to environmentalism and to spread doubt about human made climate change.
We may know our economic future, but we also know our environmental one, which is not so easy to prepare for. There will huge disruption to agriculture and mass migration northwards.
Volcanic activity, orbits and albedo are of course factored in too.
I'm not sure your point. If there is a solar flare it will make everything much worse- not mitigate human activity of the already warming Earth?
The weaponisation is in the denial of what we all need to be facing up to.
Russia and China are aiming in the right direction though the green transition and economic growth in China seem to have been fuelled by coal and what with the ramping up of the MIC (all fossil fuel based) in Russia thanks to the fools in NATO, it's not looking very good for Mother Earth.
Thanks for the link- it seems to be about electromagnetic storms causing power outages.
Yes, I have seen the climate fluctuations in the Holocene, Roman and Medieval periods and the latest composites from thousands of locations for the past 8000 years, shows a smooth line with a rapid uptick in temperature in the last 200 years and especially in the latest 40. A ten times more rapid increase than observed anywhere or any time before.
Yes the sun is very powerful but that doesn't mean that small amounts of things like minerals, lead, arsenic and co2 are not very powerful too. The co2 gathering in the atmosphere from human activity is trapping the heat from the sun and is rapidly warming our planet. Yes if we rapidly got closer to the sun it would heat the earth faster than humans are doing. But the 'smaller' effect of human global warming is plenty to affect our lives.
I think you are doing the ecological side step. It's not either or. It's both. Yes we have polluted the air, emptied the oceans of fish and filled them with mercury instead, we've cut down the rainforest, killed billions of wild animals, created toxic runoff and ocean dead zones (plankton provide half the atmosphere's oxygen so we may run out of it) and made millions of species extinct (some we we hadn't even discovered yet). And we are also causing global warming.
Russia's overall Africa policy is reaping huge dividends as is China's. Their long-term calibration tells African nations they're going to stay and widen their ties in a win-win, non-extractive manner.
The insanity never stops. I hold all of my elected representatives personally responsible for the genocide in DonBas and Palestine. They supported it and they will bare the burden for the rest of their lives. Words and apologies will not save them. They better end this soon or this country will be done . Sooner than later. Disgusted.
Another timely and thought provoking post, Karl, many thanks.
The Two Elephants argument is difficult to argue against (the third elephant is hopelessly senile and is being treated in Croydon Hospital). The ambiguity of the signals Crooke points out is strangely fascinating — he uses the word “eschatological” which provides an insight into the Hebraic mind.
Is the timing right for a strike against the two beasts — as you point out, Russia appears to have Ukraine largely under control. You are also moving impressively to advanced topics very quickly with the question of whether China should step in now. The internal debates in Beijing may not (ever) be revealed, but my sense is that China will take that step — if Iran and KSA are in agreement. My hopes and prayers are futile — but I’ve felt for some time that this may be an irresistible turning point of history.
The nauseating activities of Israel have led me to reading about Marcion (his works were almost wholly destroyed by the “early Christian fathers”). But Marcion’s point of view — that Yahweh and the God of the New Testament have nothing to do with each other — answers some of the questions I had in Sunday School many long decades ago. How is the story of David, as one example, compatible with the parables of Christ? How can they both be yoked together in something called the “Holy Bible”? Yahweh as the demiurge, or God from Hell, or Satan, is cutting through the Gordian knot which has paralyzed Christian societies for so long. But it’s likely that the western Christian churches are beyond rehabilitation.
Have you read "The Masks of God" four volume series by Joseph Campbell, or at least "The Hero With a Thousand Faces"? They provide great motivational thinking about the nature of religion and its weak link to genuine Metaphysics. Hudson exposes much in his explanation of how the various gods are used in Mesopotamia prior to the arrival of the Hebrews, who were just another nomadic desert tribe My initial research into the Essenes looked to be rather powerful, but I needed access to the Dead Sea Scrolls which are very tightly held.
Onward to today's reality and the agreed upon laws that are to govern human behavior which the Two Elephants are breaking. If the goals of Russia and China are honest and sincere, then the status quo cannot be allowed to continue. What Lavrov said today bears on this although his remarks were all about NATO and US hegemony. Putin today talked about the intense development that's required to prevail over the hegemonic regime. Another civilization wants to join BRICS+ Thailand. Keeping one's head from spinning is a tough chore, but this is Geopolitics, and a steady head is a prerequisite to participate.
The historically accurate, in its details, is less interesting to me than the founding (privileged) documents that sustain and are refreshed by generations. A diligent reading of the OT reveals much — I absolutely do not want to delve into the of the other “book”.
The immense gulf between Christ and the god of the Jews — this I couldn’t understand as an eight-year old. And my Sunday School teacher couldn’t explain it either. This is very basic stuff — and now 50 years later, through the flaunted genocide by the Israelis, I wanted to understand why 80% of Israeli support Netanyahu or are even more treacherous.
Between the Torah and the other book — this seems to be what all Jews absorb (the Reformed, the non-practicing, or even converted). In the end, this belief in “chosen-ness” seems a characteristic that is ineradicable in most.
I sense a doubt in your mind about intentions of Russia and China and their partners. Caution against making the “sincerity” of others conform to a specific schedule of actions that are generated in one’s mind. I’m actually quite confident (especially after Iran’s response to the direct Israeli attack) — that the so-called “intelligence” of the West has been exaggerated. I’m equally confident that the Russia-China-Iran grouping will make the right choices after “due consideration and consultation with its partners”.
I also hold the distinctly minority position that it would be in the interests of humanity if there were a (more or less) direct military conventional confrontation between NATO/US and Russia/China. I strongly suspect that the last vestiges of the invincibility of the US military would be exposed. But it is Russia/China/Iran and their friends who need to select time and place.
This belief in an early confrontation rather than festering uncertainty was stimulated from the reading of Nassim Taleb’s absolute masterpiece “The Black Swan”. He persuades that the early failures of smaller financial institutions and hedge funds (such as Long Term Capital Management, which was bailed out in an arrangement by the NY Fed in 1998) would have prevented the cataclysm of 2008. Instead, we are in the ropes in the US financial sector 16 years later — with precisely the same protagonists.
The confrontation you suggest is actually happening, IMO, just that China presently isn't directly involved. Lots of metaphors. What will reality reveal?
Agreed, if by “isn’t directly involved” you mean it isn’t announced publicly.
This isn’t just a military or political issue. China, KSA and even Turkey have a staggering amount of funds (of all principal currencies) on deposit in western financial institutions. The US and other NATO nations have shown their absolute willingness to seize these assets. Recall that Russia held sequestered funds in UBS accounts (UBS was the legal trustee for the bond holders) strictly for the payment of interest on their sovereign bonds. The US jawboned UBS into not making these interest payments to bond holders — thus violating its fiduciary responsibility and putting Russia into technical default.
The institutional fixed income investor community was stunned. Russia and China never expected that western banks would cave to hegemonic pressure that essentially makes a mockery of the global finance “system” — and their banks do not have at present the ability to replace western banks in this area.
It’s somewhat parallel to the US blocking commercial contracts running between Boeing and Russian airline companies to supply spare parts…or the blocking of ASML’s obligations to provide warranty service on equipment sold to China.
There is clearly nothing that the ziowest will not stoop to, even to destroying the commercial contracts that the west itself devised and made the standard for global trade.
Thanks for this comment as it gives me an idea of what I'll ask Dr. Hudson at our next Patreon Chat on the 6th. What I see is Russia operating just fine without those funds and it's not too concerned about financing its long list of national projects and other budget items. China just finished a major banking reform that I've yet to examine that was just published today. IMO, there's little more the Empire can or will do since it will hurt its own--Deep States--interests if it further destroys the overall system.
Speaking as ex-investment banker, the perils of the dollar-financial system remain very serious. Certainly the bilateral reserve currency and trade finance swaps are essential and effective in trade financing, but I think it’s erroneous to think it’s an easy extrapolation to a BRICS currency.
The separate question of diversifying Russia’s resource-dependent economy remains. Putin’s replacement of Shoigu by Belousov is a positive sign that the war is nearing its end — but it’s also an admission of the need to ground the next stage of national development on programs that create true economic value. Ill-conceived manœuvres such as selling oil to India and accumulating rupees (while India received USD or Euros for reselling to the West at a profit) must be avoided. A profitable and attainable economic future is for better served by executing the initiatives announced and centered around Harbin.
Russia got a little ahead of itself in jumping the gun (imho) pushing a “BRICS currency”. China did not acquiesce as they know that day is aways off, one reason being there simply isn’t any internal plumbing (legal, fiduciary, settlement) set up for this (a complex undertaking). If I’m not mistaken, all of the sovereign issues of the BRICS nations (a corporate borrowings) are handled by western entities/banks which means that, under pressure from the US, it can crack.
You can’t replace a system that has evolved, through trial-and-error and over eighty years by an abstract concept that has no existence in reality. Hudson has said, correctly, that an entire array of institutions needs to be created by BRICS that have the parallel functionality to those that evolved from Bretton Woods.
An additional impediment is that the economies of the 5 or 9 are quite disparate, so the obvious choice of a “snake” enabling easy adjustments between weightings is not possible (and it’s not primarily a technical issue if you read between the lines). The RMB is clearly the powerful currency, with the ruble and rial having some stable defensible values, but that’s it. And China adamantly opposes the international of the RMB (with good reason). A linkage to gold is technically feasible but politically impossible.
You can feel Hudson’s impatience with China’s measured approach — I think we all wish that the vampire could be dealt a stake through its heart — he’s said in a recent video that he wished that Russia and China would simply decide to stop selling (exporting) to the West, effectively decoupling in a single stroke. I’m sure he’s made this point to the astonished Chinese, who have immense respect for him, but — as I’ve been told many times by the Chinese I’ve worked with — “that’s not the Chinese way”. While I can understand Hudson point of view, it’s difficult to argue with China’s measured analysis — and the success that it has engendered.
"This belief in an early confrontation rather than festering uncertainty was stimulated from the reading of Nassim Taleb’s absolute masterpiece 'The Black Swan'."
This may be an instance of "Yes . . . but". Generally, Taleb's preference for facing up to reality sooner rather than later is a gimme. In this case, however, we're up against another Taleb dictum, namely don't take risks that involve potential extinction.
Prior to the SMO, Russia tried to coax the west towards an acceptance that the unipolar moment was over, all the while quietly preparing itself for the worst. Post SMO, once the negotiations were scuppered, the strategy became one of slowly bleeding NATO and Ukraine dry through attrition. No shocking moves, no obvious escalations, in short nothing that might lead the US to decide it had no choice but to go for broke.
This has been remarkably successful, to the point where both Ukraine and NATO have, little by little, been substantially demilitarised. In conventional military terms, the West never stood a chance in an all out battle on Russia's doorstep; now, the disparity is achingly stark.
Seems to me the challenge for Russia now is to carry on, giving this new reality time to sink in to the West's psyche without triggering some desperate rearguard action. Their long attempt to talk the west off the ledge may of course fail, in which case the decisive encounter you favour will unfold.
What Russia will do as an endgame is complete guesswork. I've opined on that eventuality several times. At some point I'll need to focus on our election, probably when the Conventions occur. Come late Fall the Ukraine situation will be plainer to see and easier to prognosticate.
But will there be an election? The US has ceased being a functional republic, and the population prepped for various mitigating crises that would set convention aside. As the sanctions regime becomes ever crazier there's the legal precedent of odious debt that countries can set aside any US/IMF/World Bank debts and move on to greener pastures.
To me, Pope Francis needs to condemn both projects! Neither fit a tiny part of even Augustine’s bellicose “just war” especially the NATO assault on others Christians.
On the Old Testament!
It is incompatible with Christianity (maybe not as it acts).
The key to me “the stone the builders rejected, became the cornerstone “.
Christian must turn their back on both elephants.
The Kingdom of God has nothing to do with what sinful man desires.
A new Eurasia is rising which dynamic in itself is very powerful. Meanwhile, the West is steadily crumpling from within as part of a periodic elite-driven paradigm shift. China and Russia do not need to interfere to further these overall developments, though acute security needs (as with Ukraine on Russia's border) and Palestine (which threatens to destabilize the Middle East and more) require various levels of response. Still, they are doing the minimum possible since, again, their main task right now is to keep standing strong within themselves as they build ever more vibrant commercial interconnections with geopolitical partners whilst waiting for the Hegemon to collapse from within. All they have to do is keep getting stronger by following their core interests and principles whilst being ready to unite to repel borders or have a firm response to any substantive escalation.
About which narrative escalation is not necessarily actual escalation. Narrative escalation engenders an emergency condition which helps the Western anti-nationalist elites to distract their captive populations who otherwise might demand substantive reforms. Escalation also helps Putin further consolidate power and continue his rebuilding of Russian national ethos, China too. Since it's beneficial for both sides it is quite likely to continue.
Now, if it gets out of hand, that's another thing, because those lower down in the food chain might overreact here and there. But it hasn't happened so far so the most simple explanation is that they have worked something out at the highest level to which We the People will never be privy. In other words, the Ukraine SMO is a phony war of sorts, a managed conflict. Palestine might be similar: a deal may have been done and when the dust clears nearly all the Palestinians will have been displaced. Certainly nothing seems to be preventing that apart from rhetoric.
If both the Western elites and the multipolarists are waiting for the West to crumple from within, then there is no true casus belli. Meanwhile, the narrative will continue to escalate and We the People will naturally become increasingly concerned and, thus, distracted. Until we are finally made an offer we will be in no condition to refuse.
Thank you so much for all your diligent reporting and insights. I too have often concluded that until China makes a stand against the Zionist that 'elephant' will remain alive. Though I can't see how or on what pretext they can intervene on the other side of the planet i.e. the same argument why Taiwan is geographically nothing to do with NATO?
I have little faith trust or confidence in legal process at any level. It's a deeply twisted playing field ripe for prevarication.
China conditioned their ratification of the Genocide Convention on reservations that grant immunity from prosecution for genocide without the consent of the national government. And China's Ratification in 1949 was signed as the Republic of China i.e. Taiwan.
The People's Republic of China has opposed the ICC, on the basis that it goes against the sovereignty of nation states, that the principle of complementarity gives the Court the ability to judge a nation's court system, that war crimes jurisdiction covers internal as well as international conflicts, that the Court's jurisdiction covers peacetime crimes against humanity, that the inclusion of the crime of aggression weakens the role of the UN Security Council, and that the Prosecutor's right to initiate prosecutions may open the Court to political influence.
Palestine acceded to the Genocide Convention in 2014. But Israel, Russia, USA & Sudan have declared that they no longer intend to ratify the ICC's founding Rome Treaty.
It'll be a legal mud flinging media pantomime match at best.
Instead, China & Russia & others could form a multi national SMO for Palestine with the support of the UN general assembly and say fuck to the security council veto powers thereby endowing the SMO for Palestine with a second purpose as a cause to reform UN i.e. getting rid of the SC veto power.
The International Court of Justice is not to be confused with the ICC--the ICJ is the UN's court. The Genocide Convention entered into force on 12 January 1951. China deposited it on 18 Apr 1983.
Oops yes sorry I got confused. Nonetheless, chasing international legal options is a distraction from the urgent business of stopping the psychopathic Zionist regime from normalising genocide.
Yes, Context is Everything. Let's make it explicit. The Context for Everything that is happening is the Geopolitical Tectonic Shift. The West is Sinking; the Rest is Rising. It's the End of the Western Empire after 500 years of looting the RoW (Rest of the World). And there's nothing anyone can do about, just as it is impossible for us to prevent volcanoes from erupting or continental plates from rubbing up against one another. Everything else that people are so excited about is a plethora of symptoms. What we Can do is understand what's happening and get used to it. Then we will have to Adapt, something humans are very good at.
thanks karl.. i am not sure i agree with you conclusion at the end with greater emphasis on the israel dynamic as opposed to nato as putin has that under control... they are all rabid idiots in both israel and nato, so it is hard to say anything is ''under control''...
andrew brigden video has been out for a while, but it is getting a lot more traction now.. he may or may not be correct in his analysis and i think it is premature to say..
making war is an obvious extension of a few things.. when things are going wrong - make war.. when you are losing control of things - make war... the 2 events - israel-palestine and russia-nato seem to be directly connected in this regard..
Here's what doesn't make sense to me; if the Hindu midget doesn't want to be a UK wartime PM why not just quit, whey call an election? After all he wasn't elected, he was selected.
In my humble opinion, China should not enter the fray in the Middle East. It would be safer if Iran and its proxies (e.g. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq and Ansarullah in Yemen) escalated instead. China needs to watch its back - let's not forget Taiwan!
Also, just because there was a trilateral between China, Japan and South Korea on commercial issues, it does not mean that the Outlaw US Empire could use the latter two (plus the Philippines... and Australia and New Zeland, though much farther away!) as springboards for its attack against China!
I understand your POV, although I deem the Outlaw US Empire as too weak to ever take on China. Remember what Crooke said about the Narrative. I said nothing about it this time but in many ways that's all the West has in its armory.
I can't tell if I have been reading too much stuff like this or my concerns are genuine. However right now I am more fearful about the future than at any point in my life. I am worried that things are out of control, misinformed idiots are in charge, and they are thinking with their hormones not their brains. Western publics are totally oblivious to what is going on. These sites can be an alternative echo chamber and I accept that. However the more I look at this, the more I believe that events are taking on a life of their own, pushing us towards a group-think led outbreak of war between nuclear powers. Some will argue that this is low risk but not me. I wish I could influence things and help sanity prevail but that won't be possible. So I am keeping my fingers crossed. I need to revisit my contingency bug out plan.
Is it easier to be an onlooker or a participant? As I wrote, I see the Zionist Elephant as currently the more dangerous because IMO Team Biden will not nukes to defend Occupied Palestine. In other words, the Zionists are more deranged and seen that way by the Global Majority and even some NATO members.
As the UK, France and Poland, minimally, are openly committing matériel to, and advocating, Ukrainian hits (technically, certain classes of weaponry) on targets within Russia, I’d like to an immediate conventional or hypersonic response by Russia on military targets in those NATO countries. By immediate, I mean within hours. Like the early 2022 on bunkers near Kiev.
Dont really get the Sunak comments. Given the way leadership is determined in the UK , he could just step down and leave if that was the motivation. The party would then elect another leader.
They've been scraping the barrel for leadership and there's not much left. And then who really wants the job? Rats may not know the cause of a sinking ship, but they know when it's time to get out.
One possible reason for the calling of an early election may be the newly formed 'Workers Party', which is still in the process of engaging people to become 'candidates'. Of course it's difficult to believe that any new political party could make 'any serious in roads into UK party politics' but we do live in interesting times and perhaps even unusual times.
The suggestion that 'word has come down' WRT UK war with Russia does fan the flames of puppet-masters 'doin the do', but the notion is so ridiculous that we in the UK are more likely to die laughing than as a consequence of Russian aggression.
The UK General Selection so far seems to be Sunak proposing dumb policy statements so that the recently bespectacled Starmfuhrer - appearing seemingly smart - can be seen pulling those statements apart. In other words any absence of policy lines on the Starmfuhrer's part remains hidden by Sunak's pantomime part.
In the meantime there are potentially a whole host of 'colluding with Genocide' indictments in the pipeline ...
thank you... a smart and succinct response where i learned something... it is hard to get a grip on other countries dynamics... i appreciate what you've shared here..
Thank you james. I value your contributions. I cannot 'like' comments here anymore, so it's an opportunity to convey my appreciation for your contributions and overall engagement with current issues.
Karl, you are indispensable. A thousand thanks for what you do. If I follow the bread crumbs, an escalation of the war in Ukraine is necessary to distract from Israel's continuing genocidal madness. I believe you are correct about China holding the key to the Middle East. But the key is not a Genocide Convention--which I believe would be another ineffective talking and condemnation forum. The hold that the US has on Egypt and Saudi Arabia--particularly Egypt--must be definitively broken. This is the swing element--the essential tectonic shift. That hold is military support (ie weaponry, military technology & security guarantees), which Russia and China can replace, and--and most of all--financial. Here is where China comes in. China must offer to fully replace all US financial arrangements--loans, export markets, aid, investment opportunities, development-- in short, the works. This is the actual heart of the Hegemon's power. Frankly, Israel and the Hegemon will both be defeated eventually anyway, but the road without this Chinese intervention will be longer and messier.
The Genocide Convention happened long ago and is part of UN/International Law. "The Convention entered into force on 12 January 1951 and has 152 state parties as of 2022."
Egypt became a BRICS member as of January 1, 2024, and Russia has a long history of both economic and military relations. The Saudis are also members and want to join SCO, too.
I know all that. Russia's connection to Egypt is not even remotely comparable to America's--roughly 1.5 billion in military aid and another half billion in economic assistance annually. The need for financial support goes light years beyond BRICS and SCO. The IMF just approved an 8 billion dollar emergency bailout for Egypt. In other words they are bought and paid for--and face financial ruin if they don't play ball. That's power, and until China and Russia play at that level it's going to be very tough going.
Call me a dreamer, but if Egypt could be encouraged AND empowered to repudiate that IMF ‘blackmail’ loan and other dollar-denominated debts they could host a multi-national coalition to invade Rafah and proceed to liberate Gaza. With Ansarallah, KSA, (yes, on the same side!) Libya, Iraq and others who have suffered at the hands of Zionist and Western Hegemonic pillagers. Iran, Türkiye and Russia contributing material support (and military materiel), China (hopefully) to step up with loan guarantees or other financial assistance. Hezbollah takes the helm in the liberation of the West Bank, with reinforcement from Syria and support from previously mentioned parties. Al-Aqsa flood writ large, if you will. It feels as if the stars are in a favorable alignment, and with swift action the Israelis will ’cave’ without much resistance rather than suffer the fate they are inflicting on the Palestinians. “From the River to the Sea!”
You're right on target. Egypt, with a population of over 100 million SHOULD be the natural leader of the Arab world--and it was until Sadat sold it down the river in the 70s, which is why the Muslim Brotherhood killed him. Sadat switched sides from Russia to the US in return for a peace deal and an annual chunk of money. Went from Migs to F-16s, etc, etc. Cut Syria and the Palestinians off at the knees--a catastrophe for the Egyptian people and the Arab world. Frankly, ordinary Egyptians are ready to take on Israel--but Egyptian leaders know the economic consequences from the West will be devastating. The problem is, yes, you can repudiate the debt, but their economy is a wreak and they desperately need a long term infusion of financial help. The IMF and World Bank is the only game in town unless, and this is the biggie, the new big dog steps in. Unfortunately it may be too early for this to happen on the world financial stage. The dollar is still strong and the yuan is fast gaining but has yet to catch up. Plus the issue of a mechanism of settling international balance of trade disparities has yet to be solved. But your thinking is on target. For the big shift to happen there has to be a new financial order with a huge new lending apparatus free from Western dominance.
Much appreciated! Calls to mind George Thorogood’s classic song “Move it on Over” - (big ol’ dog is movin’ in!) Cheers!
I'll drink to that, "One bourbon, one scotch, one beer..."
I'm really not sure about Crooke.
Brigden is of course part of Farage's Reform- Britain's very own MAGA populist party- who seem to be leveraging the proxy war and talk of escalation to gain support for their nationalism and independence from NATO.
Crooke has spoken of the WEF in ways that make me suspicious that he's propagating the agenda hoax that creates fear of left wing one world government. Which actually keeps power in the hands of the powerful ie with US fossil fuel and animal ag cartels.
The elephant in the room is that open borders and falling living standards will soon seem like child's play. The more we sanction and isolate from BRICS the faster our economies, already in recession, will tank. The West is dying and the great symbiosis of Russia and China are now deciding how the world is going to be. Unless we find leaders who will take us into this world- we're screwed.
I've read and listed to Crooke for many years now and have never sensed him promoting any WEF agenda item. Since we know about our future economic direction, we can prepare for what occurs. I did that 20 years ago and currently am debating how much more I should do.
Hiya Karl. I’m not saying that Crooke is promoting any WEF agenda item! I’m saying that he spoke about the WEF like it was a thing and not a vehicle used by industry funded groups like the Heartland Institute to instil fear of green policies, create division and resistance to environmentalism and to spread doubt about human made climate change.
We may know our economic future, but we also know our environmental one, which is not so easy to prepare for. There will huge disruption to agriculture and mass migration northwards.
But there haven't been any solar flares.
Volcanic activity, orbits and albedo are of course factored in too.
I'm not sure your point. If there is a solar flare it will make everything much worse- not mitigate human activity of the already warming Earth?
The weaponisation is in the denial of what we all need to be facing up to.
Russia and China are aiming in the right direction though the green transition and economic growth in China seem to have been fuelled by coal and what with the ramping up of the MIC (all fossil fuel based) in Russia thanks to the fools in NATO, it's not looking very good for Mother Earth.
Hiya Dave,
Thanks for the link- it seems to be about electromagnetic storms causing power outages.
Yes, I have seen the climate fluctuations in the Holocene, Roman and Medieval periods and the latest composites from thousands of locations for the past 8000 years, shows a smooth line with a rapid uptick in temperature in the last 200 years and especially in the latest 40. A ten times more rapid increase than observed anywhere or any time before.
https://jowaller.substack.com/p/climate-change-hasnt-been-debunked?utm_source=publication-search
Yes the sun is very powerful but that doesn't mean that small amounts of things like minerals, lead, arsenic and co2 are not very powerful too. The co2 gathering in the atmosphere from human activity is trapping the heat from the sun and is rapidly warming our planet. Yes if we rapidly got closer to the sun it would heat the earth faster than humans are doing. But the 'smaller' effect of human global warming is plenty to affect our lives.
I think you are doing the ecological side step. It's not either or. It's both. Yes we have polluted the air, emptied the oceans of fish and filled them with mercury instead, we've cut down the rainforest, killed billions of wild animals, created toxic runoff and ocean dead zones (plankton provide half the atmosphere's oxygen so we may run out of it) and made millions of species extinct (some we we hadn't even discovered yet). And we are also causing global warming.
Jo
Russia's overall Africa policy is reaping huge dividends as is China's. Their long-term calibration tells African nations they're going to stay and widen their ties in a win-win, non-extractive manner.
The insanity never stops. I hold all of my elected representatives personally responsible for the genocide in DonBas and Palestine. They supported it and they will bare the burden for the rest of their lives. Words and apologies will not save them. They better end this soon or this country will be done . Sooner than later. Disgusted.
Another timely and thought provoking post, Karl, many thanks.
The Two Elephants argument is difficult to argue against (the third elephant is hopelessly senile and is being treated in Croydon Hospital). The ambiguity of the signals Crooke points out is strangely fascinating — he uses the word “eschatological” which provides an insight into the Hebraic mind.
Is the timing right for a strike against the two beasts — as you point out, Russia appears to have Ukraine largely under control. You are also moving impressively to advanced topics very quickly with the question of whether China should step in now. The internal debates in Beijing may not (ever) be revealed, but my sense is that China will take that step — if Iran and KSA are in agreement. My hopes and prayers are futile — but I’ve felt for some time that this may be an irresistible turning point of history.
The nauseating activities of Israel have led me to reading about Marcion (his works were almost wholly destroyed by the “early Christian fathers”). But Marcion’s point of view — that Yahweh and the God of the New Testament have nothing to do with each other — answers some of the questions I had in Sunday School many long decades ago. How is the story of David, as one example, compatible with the parables of Christ? How can they both be yoked together in something called the “Holy Bible”? Yahweh as the demiurge, or God from Hell, or Satan, is cutting through the Gordian knot which has paralyzed Christian societies for so long. But it’s likely that the western Christian churches are beyond rehabilitation.
Have you read "The Masks of God" four volume series by Joseph Campbell, or at least "The Hero With a Thousand Faces"? They provide great motivational thinking about the nature of religion and its weak link to genuine Metaphysics. Hudson exposes much in his explanation of how the various gods are used in Mesopotamia prior to the arrival of the Hebrews, who were just another nomadic desert tribe My initial research into the Essenes looked to be rather powerful, but I needed access to the Dead Sea Scrolls which are very tightly held.
Onward to today's reality and the agreed upon laws that are to govern human behavior which the Two Elephants are breaking. If the goals of Russia and China are honest and sincere, then the status quo cannot be allowed to continue. What Lavrov said today bears on this although his remarks were all about NATO and US hegemony. Putin today talked about the intense development that's required to prevail over the hegemonic regime. Another civilization wants to join BRICS+ Thailand. Keeping one's head from spinning is a tough chore, but this is Geopolitics, and a steady head is a prerequisite to participate.
The historically accurate, in its details, is less interesting to me than the founding (privileged) documents that sustain and are refreshed by generations. A diligent reading of the OT reveals much — I absolutely do not want to delve into the of the other “book”.
The immense gulf between Christ and the god of the Jews — this I couldn’t understand as an eight-year old. And my Sunday School teacher couldn’t explain it either. This is very basic stuff — and now 50 years later, through the flaunted genocide by the Israelis, I wanted to understand why 80% of Israeli support Netanyahu or are even more treacherous.
Between the Torah and the other book — this seems to be what all Jews absorb (the Reformed, the non-practicing, or even converted). In the end, this belief in “chosen-ness” seems a characteristic that is ineradicable in most.
I sense a doubt in your mind about intentions of Russia and China and their partners. Caution against making the “sincerity” of others conform to a specific schedule of actions that are generated in one’s mind. I’m actually quite confident (especially after Iran’s response to the direct Israeli attack) — that the so-called “intelligence” of the West has been exaggerated. I’m equally confident that the Russia-China-Iran grouping will make the right choices after “due consideration and consultation with its partners”.
I also hold the distinctly minority position that it would be in the interests of humanity if there were a (more or less) direct military conventional confrontation between NATO/US and Russia/China. I strongly suspect that the last vestiges of the invincibility of the US military would be exposed. But it is Russia/China/Iran and their friends who need to select time and place.
This belief in an early confrontation rather than festering uncertainty was stimulated from the reading of Nassim Taleb’s absolute masterpiece “The Black Swan”. He persuades that the early failures of smaller financial institutions and hedge funds (such as Long Term Capital Management, which was bailed out in an arrangement by the NY Fed in 1998) would have prevented the cataclysm of 2008. Instead, we are in the ropes in the US financial sector 16 years later — with precisely the same protagonists.
The confrontation you suggest is actually happening, IMO, just that China presently isn't directly involved. Lots of metaphors. What will reality reveal?
Agreed, if by “isn’t directly involved” you mean it isn’t announced publicly.
This isn’t just a military or political issue. China, KSA and even Turkey have a staggering amount of funds (of all principal currencies) on deposit in western financial institutions. The US and other NATO nations have shown their absolute willingness to seize these assets. Recall that Russia held sequestered funds in UBS accounts (UBS was the legal trustee for the bond holders) strictly for the payment of interest on their sovereign bonds. The US jawboned UBS into not making these interest payments to bond holders — thus violating its fiduciary responsibility and putting Russia into technical default.
The institutional fixed income investor community was stunned. Russia and China never expected that western banks would cave to hegemonic pressure that essentially makes a mockery of the global finance “system” — and their banks do not have at present the ability to replace western banks in this area.
It’s somewhat parallel to the US blocking commercial contracts running between Boeing and Russian airline companies to supply spare parts…or the blocking of ASML’s obligations to provide warranty service on equipment sold to China.
There is clearly nothing that the ziowest will not stoop to, even to destroying the commercial contracts that the west itself devised and made the standard for global trade.
Thanks for this comment as it gives me an idea of what I'll ask Dr. Hudson at our next Patreon Chat on the 6th. What I see is Russia operating just fine without those funds and it's not too concerned about financing its long list of national projects and other budget items. China just finished a major banking reform that I've yet to examine that was just published today. IMO, there's little more the Empire can or will do since it will hurt its own--Deep States--interests if it further destroys the overall system.
Speaking as ex-investment banker, the perils of the dollar-financial system remain very serious. Certainly the bilateral reserve currency and trade finance swaps are essential and effective in trade financing, but I think it’s erroneous to think it’s an easy extrapolation to a BRICS currency.
The separate question of diversifying Russia’s resource-dependent economy remains. Putin’s replacement of Shoigu by Belousov is a positive sign that the war is nearing its end — but it’s also an admission of the need to ground the next stage of national development on programs that create true economic value. Ill-conceived manœuvres such as selling oil to India and accumulating rupees (while India received USD or Euros for reselling to the West at a profit) must be avoided. A profitable and attainable economic future is for better served by executing the initiatives announced and centered around Harbin.
Russia got a little ahead of itself in jumping the gun (imho) pushing a “BRICS currency”. China did not acquiesce as they know that day is aways off, one reason being there simply isn’t any internal plumbing (legal, fiduciary, settlement) set up for this (a complex undertaking). If I’m not mistaken, all of the sovereign issues of the BRICS nations (a corporate borrowings) are handled by western entities/banks which means that, under pressure from the US, it can crack.
You can’t replace a system that has evolved, through trial-and-error and over eighty years by an abstract concept that has no existence in reality. Hudson has said, correctly, that an entire array of institutions needs to be created by BRICS that have the parallel functionality to those that evolved from Bretton Woods.
An additional impediment is that the economies of the 5 or 9 are quite disparate, so the obvious choice of a “snake” enabling easy adjustments between weightings is not possible (and it’s not primarily a technical issue if you read between the lines). The RMB is clearly the powerful currency, with the ruble and rial having some stable defensible values, but that’s it. And China adamantly opposes the international of the RMB (with good reason). A linkage to gold is technically feasible but politically impossible.
You can feel Hudson’s impatience with China’s measured approach — I think we all wish that the vampire could be dealt a stake through its heart — he’s said in a recent video that he wished that Russia and China would simply decide to stop selling (exporting) to the West, effectively decoupling in a single stroke. I’m sure he’s made this point to the astonished Chinese, who have immense respect for him, but — as I’ve been told many times by the Chinese I’ve worked with — “that’s not the Chinese way”. While I can understand Hudson point of view, it’s difficult to argue with China’s measured analysis — and the success that it has engendered.
"This belief in an early confrontation rather than festering uncertainty was stimulated from the reading of Nassim Taleb’s absolute masterpiece 'The Black Swan'."
This may be an instance of "Yes . . . but". Generally, Taleb's preference for facing up to reality sooner rather than later is a gimme. In this case, however, we're up against another Taleb dictum, namely don't take risks that involve potential extinction.
Prior to the SMO, Russia tried to coax the west towards an acceptance that the unipolar moment was over, all the while quietly preparing itself for the worst. Post SMO, once the negotiations were scuppered, the strategy became one of slowly bleeding NATO and Ukraine dry through attrition. No shocking moves, no obvious escalations, in short nothing that might lead the US to decide it had no choice but to go for broke.
This has been remarkably successful, to the point where both Ukraine and NATO have, little by little, been substantially demilitarised. In conventional military terms, the West never stood a chance in an all out battle on Russia's doorstep; now, the disparity is achingly stark.
Seems to me the challenge for Russia now is to carry on, giving this new reality time to sink in to the West's psyche without triggering some desperate rearguard action. Their long attempt to talk the west off the ledge may of course fail, in which case the decisive encounter you favour will unfold.
What Russia will do as an endgame is complete guesswork. I've opined on that eventuality several times. At some point I'll need to focus on our election, probably when the Conventions occur. Come late Fall the Ukraine situation will be plainer to see and easier to prognosticate.
But will there be an election? The US has ceased being a functional republic, and the population prepped for various mitigating crises that would set convention aside. As the sanctions regime becomes ever crazier there's the legal precedent of odious debt that countries can set aside any US/IMF/World Bank debts and move on to greener pastures.
To me, Pope Francis needs to condemn both projects! Neither fit a tiny part of even Augustine’s bellicose “just war” especially the NATO assault on others Christians.
On the Old Testament!
It is incompatible with Christianity (maybe not as it acts).
The key to me “the stone the builders rejected, became the cornerstone “.
Christian must turn their back on both elephants.
The Kingdom of God has nothing to do with what sinful man desires.
A new Eurasia is rising which dynamic in itself is very powerful. Meanwhile, the West is steadily crumpling from within as part of a periodic elite-driven paradigm shift. China and Russia do not need to interfere to further these overall developments, though acute security needs (as with Ukraine on Russia's border) and Palestine (which threatens to destabilize the Middle East and more) require various levels of response. Still, they are doing the minimum possible since, again, their main task right now is to keep standing strong within themselves as they build ever more vibrant commercial interconnections with geopolitical partners whilst waiting for the Hegemon to collapse from within. All they have to do is keep getting stronger by following their core interests and principles whilst being ready to unite to repel borders or have a firm response to any substantive escalation.
About which narrative escalation is not necessarily actual escalation. Narrative escalation engenders an emergency condition which helps the Western anti-nationalist elites to distract their captive populations who otherwise might demand substantive reforms. Escalation also helps Putin further consolidate power and continue his rebuilding of Russian national ethos, China too. Since it's beneficial for both sides it is quite likely to continue.
Now, if it gets out of hand, that's another thing, because those lower down in the food chain might overreact here and there. But it hasn't happened so far so the most simple explanation is that they have worked something out at the highest level to which We the People will never be privy. In other words, the Ukraine SMO is a phony war of sorts, a managed conflict. Palestine might be similar: a deal may have been done and when the dust clears nearly all the Palestinians will have been displaced. Certainly nothing seems to be preventing that apart from rhetoric.
If both the Western elites and the multipolarists are waiting for the West to crumple from within, then there is no true casus belli. Meanwhile, the narrative will continue to escalate and We the People will naturally become increasingly concerned and, thus, distracted. Until we are finally made an offer we will be in no condition to refuse.
Thank you so much for all your diligent reporting and insights. I too have often concluded that until China makes a stand against the Zionist that 'elephant' will remain alive. Though I can't see how or on what pretext they can intervene on the other side of the planet i.e. the same argument why Taiwan is geographically nothing to do with NATO?
As I suggested, upholding the Genocide Convention can provide the means.
I have little faith trust or confidence in legal process at any level. It's a deeply twisted playing field ripe for prevarication.
China conditioned their ratification of the Genocide Convention on reservations that grant immunity from prosecution for genocide without the consent of the national government. And China's Ratification in 1949 was signed as the Republic of China i.e. Taiwan.
The People's Republic of China has opposed the ICC, on the basis that it goes against the sovereignty of nation states, that the principle of complementarity gives the Court the ability to judge a nation's court system, that war crimes jurisdiction covers internal as well as international conflicts, that the Court's jurisdiction covers peacetime crimes against humanity, that the inclusion of the crime of aggression weakens the role of the UN Security Council, and that the Prosecutor's right to initiate prosecutions may open the Court to political influence.
Palestine acceded to the Genocide Convention in 2014. But Israel, Russia, USA & Sudan have declared that they no longer intend to ratify the ICC's founding Rome Treaty.
It'll be a legal mud flinging media pantomime match at best.
Instead, China & Russia & others could form a multi national SMO for Palestine with the support of the UN general assembly and say fuck to the security council veto powers thereby endowing the SMO for Palestine with a second purpose as a cause to reform UN i.e. getting rid of the SC veto power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute#States_parties
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention#Parties
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Genocide_Convention
The International Court of Justice is not to be confused with the ICC--the ICJ is the UN's court. The Genocide Convention entered into force on 12 January 1951. China deposited it on 18 Apr 1983.
Oops yes sorry I got confused. Nonetheless, chasing international legal options is a distraction from the urgent business of stopping the psychopathic Zionist regime from normalising genocide.
I think it may be time for you to be up before 'The Judge' Karl - you would not be found wanting.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks Don. I do get to chat with Dr. Hudson on June 6.
Yes, Context is Everything. Let's make it explicit. The Context for Everything that is happening is the Geopolitical Tectonic Shift. The West is Sinking; the Rest is Rising. It's the End of the Western Empire after 500 years of looting the RoW (Rest of the World). And there's nothing anyone can do about, just as it is impossible for us to prevent volcanoes from erupting or continental plates from rubbing up against one another. Everything else that people are so excited about is a plethora of symptoms. What we Can do is understand what's happening and get used to it. Then we will have to Adapt, something humans are very good at.
thanks karl.. i am not sure i agree with you conclusion at the end with greater emphasis on the israel dynamic as opposed to nato as putin has that under control... they are all rabid idiots in both israel and nato, so it is hard to say anything is ''under control''...
andrew brigden video has been out for a while, but it is getting a lot more traction now.. he may or may not be correct in his analysis and i think it is premature to say..
if you are looking for confirmation on how insane nato is, read stephen bryens post from yesterday.. either that, or ukraine is working hard to egg russia into a response to what is a serious escalation as i see it.. https://weapons.substack.com/p/ukraines-attack-on-russias-strategic/comments
add to that this article which goes with the previous one from bryen.. -
https://spacenews.com/u-s-claims-recently-launched-russian-satellite-is-an-asat/
making war is an obvious extension of a few things.. when things are going wrong - make war.. when you are losing control of things - make war... the 2 events - israel-palestine and russia-nato seem to be directly connected in this regard..
Here's what doesn't make sense to me; if the Hindu midget doesn't want to be a UK wartime PM why not just quit, whey call an election? After all he wasn't elected, he was selected.
Called “saving face” which is a pretty widespread way of coping.
In my humble opinion, China should not enter the fray in the Middle East. It would be safer if Iran and its proxies (e.g. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq and Ansarullah in Yemen) escalated instead. China needs to watch its back - let's not forget Taiwan!
Also, just because there was a trilateral between China, Japan and South Korea on commercial issues, it does not mean that the Outlaw US Empire could use the latter two (plus the Philippines... and Australia and New Zeland, though much farther away!) as springboards for its attack against China!
I understand your POV, although I deem the Outlaw US Empire as too weak to ever take on China. Remember what Crooke said about the Narrative. I said nothing about it this time but in many ways that's all the West has in its armory.
Instead of “could” I assume you mean “would not” — on that understanding, I think you’re right.
I can't tell if I have been reading too much stuff like this or my concerns are genuine. However right now I am more fearful about the future than at any point in my life. I am worried that things are out of control, misinformed idiots are in charge, and they are thinking with their hormones not their brains. Western publics are totally oblivious to what is going on. These sites can be an alternative echo chamber and I accept that. However the more I look at this, the more I believe that events are taking on a life of their own, pushing us towards a group-think led outbreak of war between nuclear powers. Some will argue that this is low risk but not me. I wish I could influence things and help sanity prevail but that won't be possible. So I am keeping my fingers crossed. I need to revisit my contingency bug out plan.
Is it easier to be an onlooker or a participant? As I wrote, I see the Zionist Elephant as currently the more dangerous because IMO Team Biden will not nukes to defend Occupied Palestine. In other words, the Zionists are more deranged and seen that way by the Global Majority and even some NATO members.
As the UK, France and Poland, minimally, are openly committing matériel to, and advocating, Ukrainian hits (technically, certain classes of weaponry) on targets within Russia, I’d like to an immediate conventional or hypersonic response by Russia on military targets in those NATO countries. By immediate, I mean within hours. Like the early 2022 on bunkers near Kiev.
This is what the Empire seeks - be lunacy to satisfy it - sheer lunacy.
There may be a time (hopefully not) for such lunacy - NOW it is not!
Dont really get the Sunak comments. Given the way leadership is determined in the UK , he could just step down and leave if that was the motivation. The party would then elect another leader.
They've been scraping the barrel for leadership and there's not much left. And then who really wants the job? Rats may not know the cause of a sinking ship, but they know when it's time to get out.
yes, there is something not right in the info being transferred here...
One possible reason for the calling of an early election may be the newly formed 'Workers Party', which is still in the process of engaging people to become 'candidates'. Of course it's difficult to believe that any new political party could make 'any serious in roads into UK party politics' but we do live in interesting times and perhaps even unusual times.
The suggestion that 'word has come down' WRT UK war with Russia does fan the flames of puppet-masters 'doin the do', but the notion is so ridiculous that we in the UK are more likely to die laughing than as a consequence of Russian aggression.
The UK General Selection so far seems to be Sunak proposing dumb policy statements so that the recently bespectacled Starmfuhrer - appearing seemingly smart - can be seen pulling those statements apart. In other words any absence of policy lines on the Starmfuhrer's part remains hidden by Sunak's pantomime part.
In the meantime there are potentially a whole host of 'colluding with Genocide' indictments in the pipeline ...
thank you... a smart and succinct response where i learned something... it is hard to get a grip on other countries dynamics... i appreciate what you've shared here..
Thank you james. I value your contributions. I cannot 'like' comments here anymore, so it's an opportunity to convey my appreciation for your contributions and overall engagement with current issues.
much appreciation of you lantern dude... all the best to you and the feeling is mutual..