Excellent piece with excellent background info. Thank you. Seems to me the big question is: will Hezbollah enter the fray full force? If it does, I don't think anyone knows what happens. Their leadership has been trained not just by, but in, North Korea. Their tunnel system was engineered by the North Koreans. Their army has fought in Syria for years. Their 10s of thousands of missiles are not home made Hamas junk. Can Israel handle these guys? Can a couple of carrier groups?
Ho ho the Friday 13th booby prize goes to THE IRON DOME fraudster defender $$recycling machine. Who would have thought that the Ukies and their incessant demands would have shone the spotlight on this piece of military fakery and then Hamas (that reliable tool of the Isranazis) would absolutely reval its fakery.
This is too good. What will those observers in the surrounding nations think now? No wonder the Isranazis have been so terrified of Iran and Syrian rockets and missiles. Is this a window of opportunity too good to let pass? Certainly Hezbollah will be observing with peels of laughter. For more detail read the simplicius report "Israeli Ground Forces Get Cold Feet? + Ukraine War Updates" where he reveals the awful truth in the late stage of the piece. A strong drink is in order as we ponder the revelations of the apocalypse etc.
Agreed uncle T. Recall The Cradle bit I cited a few days ago about the potential economic cost for Occupied Palestine. The Knesset has okay'ed the ground invasion that many believe will severely test the IOC forces and crosses many declared redlines. One key feature of Zionist weakness was running to Uncle Schmuel for weapons at the outset. Meanwhile, other things are happening.
Thank you and even though the Occupied Palestine pretend Knesset has 'approved' something, it does not necessarily follow that Occupied Philistine (USA elite) has the intestinal fortitude or civil cohesion to follow through in these days. The westies bluff and bluster may well be called over this brutal manipulation.
Indeed other things are happening and the folly of Occupied Philistine sending warships within range of Occupied Palestine's IDF is just begging for an accident.
The world and state of technology being what it now is, perhaps you should consider that the "splashes" from this conflict spreading (as they tend to) might erase any or everything you personally care about.
Want to enjoy schadenfreude or see your nieces and their kitten live to grow up? Put your intellectual efforts towards the end which seems more important.
Thank you and you can rest assured I do apply my intellectual efforts accordingly.
When it comes to your suggestion that I should care for the future of my family, I can assure you that I take the scientific advice of Professor Angus Dalgleish and Dr John Campbell very seriously. My principle effort these days is the legal prosecution and destruction of mrna vaccine fraudsters and all who assisted them. The next few generations of westies are in dire jeopardy should they fail to arrest the progress of mrna science. We stopped mercury from widespread public use and we should recall the evil consequences of that substance on our predecessors. Mrna based vaccine hoaxes are not one bit different and the mass formation is much more intense.
I have been catching up on Occupied Palestine events at Kevork Almassian utoob site "Syriana Analysis" and he reports that USA embassies have been prohibited from using words that reflect desire for peace or de-escalation in their public statements. Here is link: https://youtu.be/EL9VmfwmK3U?t=2687 at the 44:45 point which I assume will work in this post.
Note Kevork anticipates his imminent cancellation at utoob (ie to be Assanged imo) and can be found at rumble.
I once followed his writing on Twitter until its debacle. I'd heard of that order along with something similar implemented in UK. He had good info on Syria when that was the crisis.
Well it certainly is good news week:- I found this at slavyangrad and wondered whether the tourist facilities intended are in Niger or, more likely, the Dead Sea resorts.
"France is calling for 7,000 reservists to join the army. They will reinforce the protection of tourist places and important facilities. Macron is preparing the country for unrest @Slavyangrad"
If Russia and Turkiye act together to intevene in the genocide of Gaza there is nothing, short of nuclear war, that the US and Israel and the rest of NATO can do about it.
It is mistaken to believe that either of the two powers is afraid of or intimidated by the US military. Nobody is-Mao saw that the Tiger was made of paper decades ago. And he was right.
The only scary thing about the US is its irrationality. It and its alliance are run by mediocrities of the sort that used to fawn on Hitler and ingratiate themselves with Eva Braun. It is a characteristic of fascist states, such as Israel,that they seek their own destruction- they are suicidal because they must be. Their objectives are unattainable, they cannot retreat or resign, they can only hope to go out with a bang.
And that is very scary- Hitler didn't have a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu and his mates do.
Thanks Karl for this analysis. And thanks Mr Hack for the thought and learning that underlie your ontributions.
Thanks bevin; your kudos are much appreciated. Yes, irrationality; but as Chomsky once observed, even their irrationalities often have a rational core.
Response to Karl Sanchez' "Friday the 13th's Great Potpourri of Events"
I would love to see a Russian-Turkish naval armada escorting Iranian supply ships to Gaza, but I have my doubts we'll see it. This is one reason the US sent two carrier battle groups to the area - to prevent any interference by third-parties against the US-Israel "Final Solution to the Palestine Problem."
Putin is not in a hurry to start WWIII with the US over the Palestinians. Should Israel escalate its attacks against Syria, he may take some "quiet" action against Israel, say, by returning the S-300 AD systems brought back from Syria to Russia and giving Assad the green light to use them against Israeli jets. But even that, under the present circumstances, might lead the US to target those installations and escalate the situation.
This is the Palestinians' problem since 1947 - no one outside of Palestine cares, except the Arab world. So no one will risk major conflict over them. And the Arab world, with the sole exception of Hezbollah, is not in a position to do anything against Israel militarily. Even Iran, despite warning that it will "intervene" against Israel if Israel launches its ground invasion of Gaza, can't really do that much without inviting a direct US attack. If that were to occur, Iran would be expending most of its missile arsenal against US installations and would have little to spare against Israel.
Hezbollah is the only force capable of doing severe damage, partly infrastructure but mostly economic, against Israel. But it is precisely because of the likelihood of direct US military intervention against Hezbollah that has forced Hezbollah to be cautious so far in its response.
It doesn't matter if the US is "low on ammo" - it still has the capability to do enormous damage to any country which engages Israel militarily in a manner which threatens Israel's success in its operations against the Palestinians. Perhaps the US could be "bled dry" by a "long war" - depending on one's definition of "long" - but in the meantime all of the countries involved would suffer enormous infrastructure damage from US air and missile strikes.
And no one wants that just to "save the Palestinians." This is basic human nature - "charity starts at home." Humans do NOT feel and never have felt throughout history the same level of concern for persons in another country than they do for their own, despite their protestations that they do. So there are limits on what will be done by any other country for the Palestinians when faced by the threat of US retaliation. Only Russia and China have the capability to call the US on its actions - and even they will be circumspect because of the possible consequences.
IMO, Iran has more missiles than you assume, just as Hamas and Hezbollah have many more than assumed. The political Big Picture for RoW is now further filled in as the EU has shown its colors despite what Borrell said in China. I just finished publishing the entire CIS Summit transcripts plus the main statement with further commentary on Russia's bind included.
Out of Iran's estimated 3.000 missiles, the vast majority are short- or intermediate-range. The distance from Iran to Israel is 1,724.48 km or 1,071.54 miles. Iran only has about 5 missiles systems approaching that distance: the Shahab-3 (and variants), the Ghadr (a variant of the Shahab-3), the Emad (another Shahab variant), the Khorramshahr, and the Sejjil-2.
The earliest was the Shahab-3 (variants 4 and 5 and Ghadr), allegedly produced 12-15 per year since 1998, or about 325 missiles. Most of them allegedly converted to the longer-range Ghadr version, so I'm counting all of them as having adequate range to hit Israel.
The Emad, another Shahab-3 variant, only went into service in 2015, so I don't expect there are too many of those in service. Assuming the same rate of production as the Shabab, that gives us 120 of those.
The Khorramshahr only went into service in 2017, so ditto. It's status might actually still be "in development." Assuming it's in production at the same rate, that gives us 90 of those.
The Sejjil-2's status is uncertain. First tested in 2008 and 2009, the nothing until 2021 when it was tested again. Assuming its in production since 2009 would give us 210 max, but it's probably much less.
Adding all these up gives us 745, but I would guess the figure is closer to 500 or even less. So out of 3,000 Iranian missiles, only 500 or less can hit Israel. A nice number but it's not clear that all of them would be used against Israel if Iran is fighting the US at the same time. Iran would be better advised to hit US bases in the Gulf Region and in Turkey.
As for Hezbollah missiles, it depends on whose estimate you believe. I've seen them from 40,000 to 120,000. It really doesn't matter because all they need is enough to drop 100 or 200 a day reaching most of Israel every day for several months which is a maximum of say 18,000. That's enough to keep most Israelis in bomb shelters 24x7 for 3 months.
The RoW does seem to be moving to put pressure on Israel and the US. Russia, China and the BRICS countries are all trying to de-escalate the situation. My guess is: don't hold your breath on success unless countries like China put sanctions on Israel which might hurt Israel economically.
Excellent piece with excellent background info. Thank you. Seems to me the big question is: will Hezbollah enter the fray full force? If it does, I don't think anyone knows what happens. Their leadership has been trained not just by, but in, North Korea. Their tunnel system was engineered by the North Koreans. Their army has fought in Syria for years. Their 10s of thousands of missiles are not home made Hamas junk. Can Israel handle these guys? Can a couple of carrier groups?
We shall see.
Ho ho the Friday 13th booby prize goes to THE IRON DOME fraudster defender $$recycling machine. Who would have thought that the Ukies and their incessant demands would have shone the spotlight on this piece of military fakery and then Hamas (that reliable tool of the Isranazis) would absolutely reval its fakery.
This is too good. What will those observers in the surrounding nations think now? No wonder the Isranazis have been so terrified of Iran and Syrian rockets and missiles. Is this a window of opportunity too good to let pass? Certainly Hezbollah will be observing with peels of laughter. For more detail read the simplicius report "Israeli Ground Forces Get Cold Feet? + Ukraine War Updates" where he reveals the awful truth in the late stage of the piece. A strong drink is in order as we ponder the revelations of the apocalypse etc.
Agreed uncle T. Recall The Cradle bit I cited a few days ago about the potential economic cost for Occupied Palestine. The Knesset has okay'ed the ground invasion that many believe will severely test the IOC forces and crosses many declared redlines. One key feature of Zionist weakness was running to Uncle Schmuel for weapons at the outset. Meanwhile, other things are happening.
Thank you and even though the Occupied Palestine pretend Knesset has 'approved' something, it does not necessarily follow that Occupied Philistine (USA elite) has the intestinal fortitude or civil cohesion to follow through in these days. The westies bluff and bluster may well be called over this brutal manipulation.
Indeed other things are happening and the folly of Occupied Philistine sending warships within range of Occupied Palestine's IDF is just begging for an accident.
@uncle tungsten
The world and state of technology being what it now is, perhaps you should consider that the "splashes" from this conflict spreading (as they tend to) might erase any or everything you personally care about.
Want to enjoy schadenfreude or see your nieces and their kitten live to grow up? Put your intellectual efforts towards the end which seems more important.
Thank you and you can rest assured I do apply my intellectual efforts accordingly.
When it comes to your suggestion that I should care for the future of my family, I can assure you that I take the scientific advice of Professor Angus Dalgleish and Dr John Campbell very seriously. My principle effort these days is the legal prosecution and destruction of mrna vaccine fraudsters and all who assisted them. The next few generations of westies are in dire jeopardy should they fail to arrest the progress of mrna science. We stopped mercury from widespread public use and we should recall the evil consequences of that substance on our predecessors. Mrna based vaccine hoaxes are not one bit different and the mass formation is much more intense.
Next it will be weeds and then there will be a free shovel (from old USSR reserves of course) issued to every patriot:
Israeli ground military operation in the Gaza Strip has been postponed due to rain (https://t.me/svezhesti/90868), The New York Times reports
The video shows flooding in Herzliya between Tel Aviv and Netanya.
-NOT AGAIN!! 😂
Quite curious. How much in Gaza I wonder.
I have been catching up on Occupied Palestine events at Kevork Almassian utoob site "Syriana Analysis" and he reports that USA embassies have been prohibited from using words that reflect desire for peace or de-escalation in their public statements. Here is link: https://youtu.be/EL9VmfwmK3U?t=2687 at the 44:45 point which I assume will work in this post.
Note Kevork anticipates his imminent cancellation at utoob (ie to be Assanged imo) and can be found at rumble.
I once followed his writing on Twitter until its debacle. I'd heard of that order along with something similar implemented in UK. He had good info on Syria when that was the crisis.
Well it certainly is good news week:- I found this at slavyangrad and wondered whether the tourist facilities intended are in Niger or, more likely, the Dead Sea resorts.
"France is calling for 7,000 reservists to join the army. They will reinforce the protection of tourist places and important facilities. Macron is preparing the country for unrest @Slavyangrad"
France takes unrest everywhere it goes.
Curious way to call up reservists.
If Russia and Turkiye act together to intevene in the genocide of Gaza there is nothing, short of nuclear war, that the US and Israel and the rest of NATO can do about it.
It is mistaken to believe that either of the two powers is afraid of or intimidated by the US military. Nobody is-Mao saw that the Tiger was made of paper decades ago. And he was right.
The only scary thing about the US is its irrationality. It and its alliance are run by mediocrities of the sort that used to fawn on Hitler and ingratiate themselves with Eva Braun. It is a characteristic of fascist states, such as Israel,that they seek their own destruction- they are suicidal because they must be. Their objectives are unattainable, they cannot retreat or resign, they can only hope to go out with a bang.
And that is very scary- Hitler didn't have a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu and his mates do.
Thanks Karl for this analysis. And thanks Mr Hack for the thought and learning that underlie your ontributions.
Thanks bevin; your kudos are much appreciated. Yes, irrationality; but as Chomsky once observed, even their irrationalities often have a rational core.
Response to Karl Sanchez' "Friday the 13th's Great Potpourri of Events"
I would love to see a Russian-Turkish naval armada escorting Iranian supply ships to Gaza, but I have my doubts we'll see it. This is one reason the US sent two carrier battle groups to the area - to prevent any interference by third-parties against the US-Israel "Final Solution to the Palestine Problem."
Putin is not in a hurry to start WWIII with the US over the Palestinians. Should Israel escalate its attacks against Syria, he may take some "quiet" action against Israel, say, by returning the S-300 AD systems brought back from Syria to Russia and giving Assad the green light to use them against Israeli jets. But even that, under the present circumstances, might lead the US to target those installations and escalate the situation.
This is the Palestinians' problem since 1947 - no one outside of Palestine cares, except the Arab world. So no one will risk major conflict over them. And the Arab world, with the sole exception of Hezbollah, is not in a position to do anything against Israel militarily. Even Iran, despite warning that it will "intervene" against Israel if Israel launches its ground invasion of Gaza, can't really do that much without inviting a direct US attack. If that were to occur, Iran would be expending most of its missile arsenal against US installations and would have little to spare against Israel.
Hezbollah is the only force capable of doing severe damage, partly infrastructure but mostly economic, against Israel. But it is precisely because of the likelihood of direct US military intervention against Hezbollah that has forced Hezbollah to be cautious so far in its response.
It doesn't matter if the US is "low on ammo" - it still has the capability to do enormous damage to any country which engages Israel militarily in a manner which threatens Israel's success in its operations against the Palestinians. Perhaps the US could be "bled dry" by a "long war" - depending on one's definition of "long" - but in the meantime all of the countries involved would suffer enormous infrastructure damage from US air and missile strikes.
And no one wants that just to "save the Palestinians." This is basic human nature - "charity starts at home." Humans do NOT feel and never have felt throughout history the same level of concern for persons in another country than they do for their own, despite their protestations that they do. So there are limits on what will be done by any other country for the Palestinians when faced by the threat of US retaliation. Only Russia and China have the capability to call the US on its actions - and even they will be circumspect because of the possible consequences.
IMO, Iran has more missiles than you assume, just as Hamas and Hezbollah have many more than assumed. The political Big Picture for RoW is now further filled in as the EU has shown its colors despite what Borrell said in China. I just finished publishing the entire CIS Summit transcripts plus the main statement with further commentary on Russia's bind included.
Out of Iran's estimated 3.000 missiles, the vast majority are short- or intermediate-range. The distance from Iran to Israel is 1,724.48 km or 1,071.54 miles. Iran only has about 5 missiles systems approaching that distance: the Shahab-3 (and variants), the Ghadr (a variant of the Shahab-3), the Emad (another Shahab variant), the Khorramshahr, and the Sejjil-2.
The earliest was the Shahab-3 (variants 4 and 5 and Ghadr), allegedly produced 12-15 per year since 1998, or about 325 missiles. Most of them allegedly converted to the longer-range Ghadr version, so I'm counting all of them as having adequate range to hit Israel.
The Emad, another Shahab-3 variant, only went into service in 2015, so I don't expect there are too many of those in service. Assuming the same rate of production as the Shabab, that gives us 120 of those.
The Khorramshahr only went into service in 2017, so ditto. It's status might actually still be "in development." Assuming it's in production at the same rate, that gives us 90 of those.
The Sejjil-2's status is uncertain. First tested in 2008 and 2009, the nothing until 2021 when it was tested again. Assuming its in production since 2009 would give us 210 max, but it's probably much less.
Adding all these up gives us 745, but I would guess the figure is closer to 500 or even less. So out of 3,000 Iranian missiles, only 500 or less can hit Israel. A nice number but it's not clear that all of them would be used against Israel if Iran is fighting the US at the same time. Iran would be better advised to hit US bases in the Gulf Region and in Turkey.
As for Hezbollah missiles, it depends on whose estimate you believe. I've seen them from 40,000 to 120,000. It really doesn't matter because all they need is enough to drop 100 or 200 a day reaching most of Israel every day for several months which is a maximum of say 18,000. That's enough to keep most Israelis in bomb shelters 24x7 for 3 months.
The RoW does seem to be moving to put pressure on Israel and the US. Russia, China and the BRICS countries are all trying to de-escalate the situation. My guess is: don't hold your breath on success unless countries like China put sanctions on Israel which might hurt Israel economically.