77 Comments
Jul 25Liked by Karl Sanchez

If I was young going to college I would learning Chinese and Russian. These countries are on the way up and Amerika not so much.

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And many others. The ASEAN Summit is about to begin with Lavrov and Wang Yi attending as participants. Lavrov's there to explain Putin's Eurasian Security vision. I expect much pressure to be applied to the Philippines for its anti-ASEAN behavior.

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For the young and smart in the combined west the opportunity to leave is a window that will close based on the authoritarian trajectory of the US and its satellite states.

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Jul 25·edited Jul 25Liked by Karl Sanchez

My tally:

China is ahead on

- manufacturing (by a longshot)

- transportation (by a longshot overall, exception is jet engines)

- energy (and starting to pull away)

- telecom (by a longshot)

- finance (i.e. is not broke)

- health of people (by a modest margin, but generation entering adulthood will be a blowout)

- education (by a longshot, generation entering adulthood will be a blowout)

- efficient innovation-commercialization (by a longshot)

- large-project management (by a long shot)

- new age military tech (hypersonics, drones)

- soft power coming from trade in goods and infrastructure (by a longshot)

- soft power coming from not being arrogant and destructive (rapidly increasing)

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US is ahead on

- international media / propaganda (by a longshot)

- soft power coming from converting legacy international $$ relationships into local political favors (by a longshot)

- computing (sortof, i.e. have to include Taiwan / Korea into US; lead steadily shrinking despite that)

- nuclear weapons (for now, and apparently not including the hypersonic aspect of it)

- biotech (for now)

- militarization of space (for now)

- jet engines (for now, advantage likely to vanish in current tech generation)

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Jul 25Liked by Karl Sanchez

Today: first estimate of US gross domestic product (GDP) for 2d quarter 2024. "Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent at an annual rate, or $360.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $28.63 trillion."

The projection for the US federal deficit for Oct 2023 to Sep 2024 is $1,900 billion.

Add to that the US does not really produce much! Aside from expensive genocide ammunitions, and less than suitable weapons.

Some of that GDP growth was signing "receiving reports" for duds like F0-35, finally.

Patience!

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The world's biggest Ponzi Scheme just keeps growing. Marat Khairullen today compared the F-35 program to a Ponzi Scheme:

"The average flight time of the F-35 in the US Army is now about 20 hours per month. That is, in order for it to fly like this, you need to spend 180 hours per month....

"In order to sustain this level of operation in a real conflict with us, NATO and the United States must provide more than a thousand hours of maintenance per F-35 per month! Let me remind you that a thousand hours is about 42 days! Then do the math yourself.

In general, it is clear that the F-35 will not withstand any long conflict. It was created with one sole purpose - to pump money out of the budget of the United States and its allies."

My wife works as our county's health care billing supervisor and her current ordeal speaks to the rapidly increasing cost of care and the downgrading of efficiency as the "new" billing mode chosen to be implemented by her superiors' costs more and lakes longer to do the job than the previous system. Her's is a microcosm of the massive SNAFU the nation's undergoing and has undergone for decades.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

I consider F-35 to be unilateral disarmament!

The maintenance overhead for F-16 is also significant, these days that 40 year old F-16 cannot achieve "mission capable" rates during training operations, for the past 12 years.

The F-35 fire control radar is same as on F-16! So, other than stealth it is a heavier, less maneuverable, unreliable single engine fighter. While its engine is under powered for the auxiliary power demands and so runs hot and get less time between engine breaks!

There are radar sets that can see them! While their infrared signature is pretty "bright".

F-16, F-15, F-22, A-10, F-35 the logistics overhead to generate and turn around sorties is huge and approaches the level of expertise as a formula 1 pit crew.

Then there are spares including too many spare engines, and weapons servicing!

Israel can fly F-35 because they are ahead of everyone else for parts, contractor support and they get loaned airframes. They fly against no air defenses!

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Jul 26·edited Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

any links for these F35 F16 functionals please

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

GAO-23-106673 on "Military Readiness" for all major US weapons.

GAO-23-105341 Reassess F-35 Sustainment strategy.

Google, etc will give link to .pdf.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

I had read the GAO reports - I thought you had newer updated and more functional reports- it sounded as if you did, especially re. the functionalities of the older F16s 'donated' to Ukraine, but not precisely to the Ukraine gvmt and under their control,, and without as you mention all the spares the maintenance teams - so who or what is 'in charge' of them

+the use of refueling aircraft without which their range will be minimal, although the refuelers are sitting ducks it is said

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

I had worked around F-16 planning years ago. We had issues most of which I doubt have been fixed.

F-16, indeed the US' tactical scheme (refueling is included) are untested since Vietnam where attrition in combat does not recommend these high cost platforms be used.

US does not have the numbers it had in Vietnam and worse the too small industry base to address spares and loses.

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Marat also talked about the F-16's issues that are as you say--Ferrari-like.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

Dear Karl - have you a link to this MK report?

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Jul 26·edited Jul 26Author

The article is at his VK in Russian here, https://vk.com/@-221866123-oruzhie-novaya-neft-chast-4-glavnaya-uyazvimost-zapada-b

It's also at his Telegram entry for 7/25 in Russian also, https://t.me/s/voenkorkhayrullin/2390

Also over the years at MoA there've been many discussions by ex-USAF people about the F-16 & F-35 that back everything Marat mentioned. Furthermore, the last Heritage Foundation assessment of the US military talked about all that as well. Note the info for the 2024 report was compiled in 2023, and published 24 January 2024 Here's the opening paragraph of its Executive Summary:

"As currently postured, the U.S. military is at significant risk of not being able to defend America’s vital national interests. This is the inevitable result of years of prolonged deployments, underfunding, poorly defined priorities, wildly shifting security policies, exceedingly poor discipline in program execution, and a profound lack of seriousness across the national security establishment even as threats to U.S. interests have surged. In 2023, this has been compounded by the cost of U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s assault, which is further exacerbated by the limited willingness of allies in Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. The war has laid bare the limited inventories of equipment, munitions, and supplies of all supporting countries as well as the limitations of the industrial base that will be required to replenish them."

https://www.heritage.org/military

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

Thank you for the links

There has been a lot happening recently - the Third Plenum, the Ukraine talks, the Palestine Agreement, The Assad journey to Moscow, the ASEAN meet

You have mentioned increased RF involvement in ASEAN, I think, and increased ASEAN links with SCO or BRICS or EAEU?

More interesting than the ongoing DC dramas

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

Forgot to list India China talks

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@Ed

Re: "USA does not produce much"?

USA still produces a LOT of agricultural products & related supplies/equipment. Granted, equipment components may be Asian/South American/ Eastern European subcontractor sourced, still these tools are being designed & assembled in USA.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

on GDP calculations for China read this-https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/whats-the-real-size-of-chinas-economy/

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Jul 26·edited Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

Thanks again - on GDP calculations, especially for China, read https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/whats-the-real-size-of-chinas-economy/

Of course M Hudson has written often about how puffed up and useless official US GDP stats are

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Escobar says '..a nation of factory workers...' Just a short while ago it was a nation of field workers...

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Jul 25Liked by Karl Sanchez

The really good news is that neither wsj (lower case intentional, after Blacks vs whites) nor the US Government have a clue when it comes to electronics, computing, never mind supercomputing.

Secrecy? Ever work in corporate R&D labs? I spent a few decades in well shielded corporate D, at the end of which I was awarded a bunch of patents which were signed over to the company, of course. For that you get a really sincere handshake and a nicely framed picture of some of the patents, only two per year.

Having visited Proctor & Gamble on a corporate information exchange we shared the same experience. GE and GM/Delco work by the same rules.

All the well educated and well trained Asiatics, many of whom are US trained, are equally competent. I bumped into a Chinese physicist on his honeymoon in Greece. He proposed to visit Cornell in Ihtaca NY where he got his degrees. His wife preferred Greece.

BTW, biotech is a completely different high tech area. Overall, it used to be that the US was/is ahead. International collaboration is now normal, the Wuhan labs are just an example. Maybe this is how it should be.

My wife and I grasped the COVID threat before it his the US awareness by hitting the international virology pubs. Most insightful was a research paper from India, rejected from publication for political reasons, of course.

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I don't write much about biotech, although I lived at its center for some years in California and had an even closer relationship to it during the 1960s Green Revolution that was all about plant hybrid technologies my dad was involved with at UC Davis. Pepe mentioned a stat about the number of patents held and produced by China--world leading. The best summation I've read was written in Global Times: China beat the USA by playing by its rules, which now the USA seeks to change.

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I spent my career in canncer research and diagnostic pathology so looking down a microscope- i've also done electron microscopy. I asked a virologist (in a pub in South Ken as it happens- where Julian Lloyd-Webber also went- what a rude man) to show me some viruses -he said 'we can't see them' I said how do you know they are there he said 'by their activity'. I didn't follow up at the time but adding samples from people with the supposed entity to abnormal monkey kidney cells, adding antibotics (known to affect kidney cells), powerful oxidants and mitogens and seeing cytopathic effects without doing controls with samples from sick patients without the alleged entity does not show activity.

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Jul 27Liked by Karl Sanchez

The book “Virus Mania” by Engelbrecht, Bailey, Scoglio et al is essential reading — though it is geared towards the intelligent layman, the science is not stinted which will have meaning for you. There are several international prizes being offered for the rigorous scientific confirmation of “viruses” — which remain unawarded. Dr Sam Bailey’s videos are models of rigor, clarity and logic — YouTube scrapped most of them but Dr Bailey is on other platforms and has a Substack of quality.

Because a “virus” is claimed to be beyond the ability of instrumentation to resolve optically, and fails Koch’s Postulates, the only validation can be genetic in basis — pcr tests in practice.

The “virus” is the ultimate weapon in the control of societies as the pcr can be used to “prove” almost any etiological hypothesis or disease condition that is desired. Covid was the proof of principle for this most advanced form of tyranny that mankind has endured.

In short, the government can simply argument from pcr that you are infected, and for the good of society, require isolation, “treatment”, sterilization, extermination…it’s irrelevant that you show no visible symptoms of ill-health because your evidentiable qualitative state of health will be deemed inaccurate.

The most grim example of this occurred when a few minks at a farm in Denmark tested “positive” for Covid (2020 as I recall) — the mink population in the country (a very important industry) were slaughtered en masse.

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Yep it’s a great book.

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Yeah about the green revolution and plant hybrids, my dad was all for it too. It was a disaster. https://jowaller.substack.com/p/what-were-the-results-of-the-green?utm_source=publication-search

I hope the BRICS can learn from our mistakes and not let pharma, biotech and GMOs run away (and destroy human health and our environment) with them in their desire for growth. I fear that they will not.

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HIya, very interesting. However I think that the 'covid' and other 'viral' threats and 'virology' in general is part of the same scheme that keeps people employed- they are what NATO is to war spending https://jowaller.substack.com/p/xi-and-li-and-the-great-hoax?utm_source=publication-search

The collusion between the convicted fraudsters at Big pharma (and at big animal ag/agrochem who funded deliberately misleading nutrition research) and the journals and regulatory bodies that they fund keeps the Western population fat, sick and on drugs- needing more drugs.

'Disease' is not caused by invisible contagions (at least there is no evidence that it is), virology is a molecular biology illusion, most drugs have very limited effect compared to placebo and conditions like autism, caused by MMR/pesticides, are cash cows for disease mongering big Pharma https://jowaller.substack.com/p/how-power-couple-pharma-regulation?utm_source=publication-search

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

"Threat to national security"? Education, the economy, trade and technology pose such a threat to the USA? It would be better to say "threat to hegemony". "Unfair competition" would be another formulation on this subject. The failure and inability of the USA to compete fairly. For a decent person, this context is immediately recognizable. For consumers of the mainstream media, this cognitive ability is almost impossible. That is why I see the work of those employed in this media complex as the biggest problem. I expect nothing but lies from politicians in the West.

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I'm reminded of the scene in the 2012 time travel movie "Looper":

Abe: [Joe has been teaching himself French] Why the fuck French?

Joe: I'm going to France.

Abe: You should go to China.

Joe: I'm going to France.

Abe: I'm from the future. You should go to China.

Also, the Chinese have several AIs that are doing well in the benchmarks in comparison with US AIs. I run their Qwen2 model on my home machine among others.

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Jul 28Liked by Karl Sanchez

The sooner the U.S. loses its hegemony the better for the civilized world!

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The west needs an attitude adjustment.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

"US administrative orders and regulations... are beginning to produce a McCarthy-era-like chilling effect" ...............

who whudda thunk it? lol..that is the way fear, as opposed to cooperation works...

thanks for the post karl..

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Yes, thanks for the post Karl!

Apologies in advance for my parochial outlook ;)

The only American option left is to “weaponize” Bitcoin (I.e. send it on its inevitable price moonshot)… but for that they would have to relinquish financial control!

A related point, supercomputing / AI has yet to really prove itself… case in point, the largest software bug bounty in history is just sitting there waiting to be attacked (I.e. early satoshi UTXOs that are nominally worth billions)

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

i am not sure that those are options anymore eric... maybe.. i think the usa needs to learn how to cooperate.. it has spent too much energy working towards dominating and it ain't working out as planned as we see presently..

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Jul 27Liked by Karl Sanchez

The “need for cooperation” on the part of the west is less and less likely every day (like looking at a destination through the wrong end of a telescope). The US is doing everything it can to enable the genocide of innocents — and the only possibly brake is the rest of the world led, but not limited to, the BRICS.

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Jul 27·edited Jul 27

i agree! i recognize my idealism colours my thinking, but i am realistic too..

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Agreed, their sanction regime is failing, they have thoroughly burned that bridge with much of the world… enter Bitcoin that is censorship-resistant (both the US and part of BRICS have failed to squish Bitcoin … I suppose they could collude to try to squish it together… but seems very unlikely in this adversarial time and the internet remains a “Wild West”)… Bitcoin is a cooperation of sorts (like the consensus rules of chess, a constant measuring stick)—this is why I put “weaponize” in the comment above

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i am sure if someone wants to mess with bitcoin - no problem, in spite of all the hype about it being censorship free.. when the new system of finance comes, it will have to work for everyone, as opposed to a select few... oh, if you didn't get in on the ground flour - that is the essence of capitalism and inheritance ideology and it is not working for the masses.. do we want something that works for a select few, or something that works for the masses?? my answer is the later.. cheers..

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Bitcoin was the most effective financial tool during the freedom convoy in Ottawa… why did the rcmp hunt down the guy who was handing out passwords for bitcoins wallets?

If interested, look up machankura

Bitcoin ekasi

Central America has plenty of grassroots Bitcoin lightning usage

Rural Peru

All kinds of places where previously unbanked people are using it already with even a “dumb” phone

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the canuck gov't shut down many of these peoples bank accounts.. that really rubbed a number of canucks the wrong way, even if they didn't agree with the truckers protests... i was not one of those people.. i shared the position of these protesters...

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Never mind the prestige of this

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Many westerners, if they think about China at all, believe it to be a factory making cheap consumer goods. True that China does that well, but their intellectual/technological achievements are world class. For example, when the USA froze China out of the International Space Station, China said fine, we’ll build our own. Which they did, it’s carrying Chinese astronauts in orbit right now. Then there was the recent moon mission that successfully returned lunar soil to Earth.

China has more STEM graduates per year than the US and EU combined. Lest you think those graduates are sitting around doing little, consider the fact that China files more international patents than any other country, by far.

Perhaps the West is a technological step or two ahead of China in some niche areas. But when you consider China’s intellectual horsepower combined with their manufacturing prowess, I can’t imagine any lead the West has lasting for long.

China also has an interesting form of democratic governance. Just putting that out there.

US and EU tech sanctions against China will only intensify China’s already enormous efforts. That in turn will hurt the West even more. Meanwhile China will happily cooperate on technology with other countries. They built a high-speed railway through Laos to Thailand, linking all three countries for example.

Russia, China, India et al. This will be Asia’s millennium.

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It will also be the millennium of the climate/environmental crisis.

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Yes China and Russia are leading the way and the decline of the US and its vassals economy's will require them to find alternative markets for their products- which the sanctions are already enabling them to do.

The slow down in (hopefully) military production as well as consumption overall of the West will slow down the climate crisis, giving BRICS as few more years grace as they develop their economies further.

However, the climate crisis is going to bit BRICS soon. And hard. This will be the great challenge to their ingenuity and wisdom.

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

China is as you know going both electric vehicule and solar rapidly, much more rapidly than the west - and exporting these very cheaply so the BRICS ASEAN can go solar cheaply

So BRICS is already ahead of the west

The US and the EU imposes sanctions and can not produce such in quantity or price - they are un helpful as far as climate change is concerned

China and RF both have changed the major part of their exports to RoW and RF has given up the west, the CCP will follow

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Yes BRICS is going solar and producing millions of EVs. However this is an energy addition not an energy transition as fossil fuels (in the world as a whole) continue to increase. It is not off-setting the climate crisis. Yes the US and EU are being incredibly stupid.

The future of humanity will be low energy; whether by choice or by physics.

(PS It's the CPC not CCP!)

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Energy consumption will increase, but the % of fossile consumption will only decrease via the adoption of these new techs - that which is taking place in China and soon RoW, but not in the west

Read the recent 'Decision' or 'Resolution' of the Third Plenum for details

The ‘Decision’ in English -http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0721/c1001-40282040.html, 21 July 2024 Eng_Decision_Third_Plenum_20th_Central_Committee_Cpc_2024_Zichen_Wang

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Jul 26Liked by Karl Sanchez

I should add that China now exports industries not products, to the RoW, so new energy systems - this will by greatly more reduce fossil fuel consumption

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That's wonderful. The climate crisis will still be accelerating for the foreseeable future.

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See above - climate change is your problem, you broke it you fix it

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I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.

Yes China is phasing out fossil fuels faster than the rest of the world and that is good but it will not slow down the climate/environmental crisis that they will still have to deal with (and fossil fuels in the world overall continue to increase).

China may not be capitalist but its economy is still based on growth and increasing energy consumption (solar or not producing energy is extremely costly to the environment in panels, cars and batteries etc) on a finite planet, with finite resources, that is already groaning under the severe strain of deforestation, ocean poisoning/emptying and insulation of heat from co2 and methane.

Whatever laudable things the CPC do, they can't change the laws of physics.

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Jul 27Liked by Karl Sanchez

I think you’re missing the point of what is termed in economics “input substitution”. China has prioritized the efficientization of inputs across all its productive sectors. It’s quite apparent when you look at capitated energy consumption levels over time.

The simple argument that an economy is growing and therefore more energy is not “physics”.

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It is not input substitution - the amount of energy produced by solar is increasing relatively but it is also increasing absolutely. Solar is better but is by no means zero impact on the environement.

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i was referring to the substitution of electricity from solar over fossil fuels in the world as a whole-climate change doesn’t respect political borders. At the moment there is energy addition not transition so there is no effect on the acceleration of the climate crisis.

The simple argument, as stated by basic laws physics (and biology), is that humanity will not be able to continue to consume, wherever and however the energy is produced, at such high levels and continue to survive on this planet.

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I do understand exactly what you are saying - I have chosen not to refute you but to suggest that improvements are gradual

To imagine that continents will settle for dramatically reduced levels of consumption either actual or intended is pure fantasy

I live in back country central Africa where we live more poorly than most - to think that a decision will be made to refuse real roads, cars, trucks and electricity, is puerile, let alone to cease to live as before with slash and burn

It's you who have trapped yourselves with the climate change - if you want go try and figure a way out for yourselves, but leave us alone

I guess the Chinese would tell you ditto - but you should ask them directly

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I am not asking anyone to do anything least of all asking for poor people to decrease consumption. We all know it's the 10% who are most responsible- they reduce first.

I am merely stating the blindingly obvious, that BRICS will have to deal with the great challenge of the climate crisis, if they can. It's over to them.

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