"Updating the doctrine of nuclear deterrence does not add anything that the West does not know and that would differ from American doctrinal documents regarding the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. We are convinced that this is, first of all, a weapon of deterrence and prevention of any nuclear war. This is how we treat this situation."
And this is precisely why all the boo-ha-ha over the Russian nuclear doctrine is so much hot air.
I posted this over at Ismaele's GeoPolitiq Substack and as a Substack Note today:
It's what I've said repeatedly. Russia can proclaim a readiness to use nukes all they want, but they are not going to start WWIII over a handful of conventional missiles attacking inside Russia.
If Ukraine launched a hundred or a thousand missiles (which they don't have) into Moscow, that might be a different story. But even then, what's the point of attacking the US directly? The most expedient way of dealing with that problem is blowing the Kiev regime out of existence which Russia can easily do using conventional weapons by killing Ukraine's command HQ and the entire Ukrainian political top. Not to mention every NATO weapons source inside Ukraine or the near abroad. Not to mention blowing up the satellites and aircraft the US is using to gather intelligence to support those missile launches.
None of that requires starting WWIII.
As Andrei Martyanov said the other day, Russia has escalation dominance with conventional weapons. They don't need to use nukes.
Between Ritter and the rest of the Judge Nap crowd, hyperbole does nothing to aid the discussion.
None of the above is meant to suggest that it is in any way a smart idea to escalate against Russia one more time. At some point, as Peskov said, direct attacks against NATO might well be in the cards. Article 5 of the NATO Charter really isn't relevant as NATO is a paper tiger with almost no ability to strike back at Russia, absent the US. And the US Pentagon is in no hurry to attack Russia (Iran is a different story.) So Russia may be considering doing so as a deterrent to the apparent NATO wish for a war with Russia by demonstrating how weak the European contingent of NATO actually is.
It would be interesting if Russia decides that in the course of making such a demonstration the Aegis Ashore installations in Romania and newly opened in Poland would be "accidentally" destroyed much like the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was hit "accidentally" during that conflict.
But as I've also been saying, Putin has many options to retaliate against the US globally, such as in Syria, Iran, supplying weapons to Hezbollah and Yemen, etc.
Interesting that I saw an article yesterday which claimed "Russian weapons" were found in Hezbollah caches. First, of course "Russian weapons" would be found there. AK's are used by half the world, more than the US AR platform rifle. Second, any more advanced non-small arms are obviously in use by Hezbollah - they have many Russian antitank weapons, for example. Third, the question is why would Israel make a big deal about "Russian weapons"? There are two answers to that: 1) Israel wants to drag the US in by counting on US antipathy to Russia, and 2) Israel didn't originate that report, but the US neocons did.
I should note what I see as a change in Russia's negotiating position--the December 2021 security proposals must also be discussed and finalized for any Ukraine settlement to be complete--they are now linked.
I've always assumed that. There really isn't anything else to discuss with the West, especially if Putin intends what I believe he does with regard to Ukraine.
One set of economies is rising, another set is in decline. The west has viewed resources as finite and loves it's Malthusian club of rome which should have brought into focus the real intention of its development strategies. Erecting a curtain of subterfuge that promotes "western liberal values" while behind the curtain engaging in wholesale theft. The combined west won the first round defeating the non aligned movement, and removing the USSR. But now technology and scientific/engineering knowledge and capacity has diffused globally, and the west is stricken with its neoliberal poison. At least there's hope for the global majority.
Another category that will occur in the future will be the post-development economy that no longer needs to grow and merely needs to maintain its steady state, but few are thinking of that.
Disconnecting food and commercial interests would be a good start, I was surprised to read that the US and EU pressed 10 trillion during the pandemic to buy in self-interest.
Yes, it requires a fundamental change in products for recycling materials and creating products for a post consumerist society. I read Victor Papanek's "Design for the Real World.." back in the late seventies. China's success at producing material abundance has caught the world's attention, hopefully the CPC not only rides the capitalist dragon and is able to redirect it away from rampant consumerism. The oil drum may be shuttered, but spectre of peak hydrocarbon energy is still out there.
The shift's been to the use of "cleaner" hydrocarbons but also smarter use. Also, today's developing nations will use those cleaner hydrocarbons and thus not pollute like the first wave of developing nations did. Breakthroughs in material science is leading to genuine energy storage systems to complement solar, while I also see much greater use of nuclear batteries and portable reactors. One big discovery is the ability to construct energy efficient buildings, that inability being one of the OilDrum's ongoing discussion topics as you'll recall, plus the idiocy of suburban sprawl.
Russian development will likely peak around 2070 or so and China before that. What will continue is further perfecting the economy via modernization--a process Neoliberalism shuns.
“… central task of building international relations based on multilateralism, pluralism, and the elimination of all forms of inequality both between AND WITHIN STATES.” [I don’t know how to do bold, italic, underline etc. on this platform.]
“The rights of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine as far as language and religion are concerned have been exterminated by law.”
Not to mention the deliberate persistent killing of civilians by shelling amongst other means, over ten thousand, in the Donbas from 2014.
Russia and China could offer maritime insurance with themselves as guarantors, bypassing Lloyds and the like. Or are they already doing it?
By the way, it might be useful if there was an accidental leak of ‘secret’ targets for elimination on European NATO members territories. Concentrate their minds a bit.
There's no way to add bold, etc., in substack comments, so using all caps is understood and fine. Yes, Russia, China and others stepped into the vacated insurance market as part of being sovereign.
Thanks karlof, I note Lavrov's comment "There is also a paragraph on Ukraine, which we agreed with, because the main idea in it is a call for an honest and reasonable conversation about peace on realistic grounds." Well that would have gone down badly with the Ukraine regional administration in the Russian Federation if the report at Strategic Culture is any indicator. See: https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/11/18/will-be-no-diplomacy-despite-wests-desperate-lobby/
At least the Russian Federation borders next to Romania and Poland will be highly secure to exclude vigilante attacks on its territory. IMO denazification and demilitarisation are yet some way off.
And then Lavrov fields a question or two and in response to the USA and long range bluster attacks he says "As for Donald Trump's position on Ukraine. I can't guess. He said he was a "president of peace" and not a "president of war." People, politicians in particular, who say they prefer peace to war generally deserve support." What can one say but - just take a look these freaks Trump is promoting and weep. This is a war team of testosterone pumped chicken hawks ffs and the team does not deserve any support and I would be cautious regarding Trump. I guess by this time next year we will be better informed.
Perhaps the gymnasium could invent a drinking game to acompany the confirmation process that follows next in the usa. Could be dangerous but we might as well get a laugh while we can.
The wife and I discussed that a bit over dinner. My A1C doesn't let me drink as much as I once did. We still must transit 61 more days of Team Biden whose moves serve to reinforce what I wrote about thinking you're strong but actually being very weak. When Team Trump is finally confirmed, it will find nothing but cobwebs in the armory, a rat-infested Navy and just a handful of AD missiles that can't hit anything, while the MIC drowns in PE ratios having no relation on its ability to produce anything worthy.
Meanwhile, Manturov reports on the National projects to ensure technological leadership that will showcase the vast chasm between the developmental cultures of Russia and the Outlaw US Empire.
Thanks again for putting the effort into this very worthwhile work.
"Updating the doctrine of nuclear deterrence does not add anything that the West does not know and that would differ from American doctrinal documents regarding the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. We are convinced that this is, first of all, a weapon of deterrence and prevention of any nuclear war. This is how we treat this situation."
And this is precisely why all the boo-ha-ha over the Russian nuclear doctrine is so much hot air.
I posted this over at Ismaele's GeoPolitiq Substack and as a Substack Note today:
It's what I've said repeatedly. Russia can proclaim a readiness to use nukes all they want, but they are not going to start WWIII over a handful of conventional missiles attacking inside Russia.
If Ukraine launched a hundred or a thousand missiles (which they don't have) into Moscow, that might be a different story. But even then, what's the point of attacking the US directly? The most expedient way of dealing with that problem is blowing the Kiev regime out of existence which Russia can easily do using conventional weapons by killing Ukraine's command HQ and the entire Ukrainian political top. Not to mention every NATO weapons source inside Ukraine or the near abroad. Not to mention blowing up the satellites and aircraft the US is using to gather intelligence to support those missile launches.
None of that requires starting WWIII.
As Andrei Martyanov said the other day, Russia has escalation dominance with conventional weapons. They don't need to use nukes.
Between Ritter and the rest of the Judge Nap crowd, hyperbole does nothing to aid the discussion.
None of the above is meant to suggest that it is in any way a smart idea to escalate against Russia one more time. At some point, as Peskov said, direct attacks against NATO might well be in the cards. Article 5 of the NATO Charter really isn't relevant as NATO is a paper tiger with almost no ability to strike back at Russia, absent the US. And the US Pentagon is in no hurry to attack Russia (Iran is a different story.) So Russia may be considering doing so as a deterrent to the apparent NATO wish for a war with Russia by demonstrating how weak the European contingent of NATO actually is.
It would be interesting if Russia decides that in the course of making such a demonstration the Aegis Ashore installations in Romania and newly opened in Poland would be "accidentally" destroyed much like the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was hit "accidentally" during that conflict.
But as I've also been saying, Putin has many options to retaliate against the US globally, such as in Syria, Iran, supplying weapons to Hezbollah and Yemen, etc.
Interesting that I saw an article yesterday which claimed "Russian weapons" were found in Hezbollah caches. First, of course "Russian weapons" would be found there. AK's are used by half the world, more than the US AR platform rifle. Second, any more advanced non-small arms are obviously in use by Hezbollah - they have many Russian antitank weapons, for example. Third, the question is why would Israel make a big deal about "Russian weapons"? There are two answers to that: 1) Israel wants to drag the US in by counting on US antipathy to Russia, and 2) Israel didn't originate that report, but the US neocons did.
I should note what I see as a change in Russia's negotiating position--the December 2021 security proposals must also be discussed and finalized for any Ukraine settlement to be complete--they are now linked.
I've always assumed that. There really isn't anything else to discuss with the West, especially if Putin intends what I believe he does with regard to Ukraine.
One set of economies is rising, another set is in decline. The west has viewed resources as finite and loves it's Malthusian club of rome which should have brought into focus the real intention of its development strategies. Erecting a curtain of subterfuge that promotes "western liberal values" while behind the curtain engaging in wholesale theft. The combined west won the first round defeating the non aligned movement, and removing the USSR. But now technology and scientific/engineering knowledge and capacity has diffused globally, and the west is stricken with its neoliberal poison. At least there's hope for the global majority.
Another category that will occur in the future will be the post-development economy that no longer needs to grow and merely needs to maintain its steady state, but few are thinking of that.
Disconnecting food and commercial interests would be a good start, I was surprised to read that the US and EU pressed 10 trillion during the pandemic to buy in self-interest.
That’s criminal!
Whatever happened to co-ops? There used to be milk co-ops, but big business decided that corporate personhood should rule.
They still exist. We have employee-owned businesses here in Oregon, Bi-Mart being the most impressive and state-wide.
Yes, it requires a fundamental change in products for recycling materials and creating products for a post consumerist society. I read Victor Papanek's "Design for the Real World.." back in the late seventies. China's success at producing material abundance has caught the world's attention, hopefully the CPC not only rides the capitalist dragon and is able to redirect it away from rampant consumerism. The oil drum may be shuttered, but spectre of peak hydrocarbon energy is still out there.
The shift's been to the use of "cleaner" hydrocarbons but also smarter use. Also, today's developing nations will use those cleaner hydrocarbons and thus not pollute like the first wave of developing nations did. Breakthroughs in material science is leading to genuine energy storage systems to complement solar, while I also see much greater use of nuclear batteries and portable reactors. One big discovery is the ability to construct energy efficient buildings, that inability being one of the OilDrum's ongoing discussion topics as you'll recall, plus the idiocy of suburban sprawl.
Did Russia lose that battle? Or should they be happy that they have uncovered and rejected the Nazi part?
Russian development will likely peak around 2070 or so and China before that. What will continue is further perfecting the economy via modernization--a process Neoliberalism shuns.
“… central task of building international relations based on multilateralism, pluralism, and the elimination of all forms of inequality both between AND WITHIN STATES.” [I don’t know how to do bold, italic, underline etc. on this platform.]
“The rights of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine as far as language and religion are concerned have been exterminated by law.”
Not to mention the deliberate persistent killing of civilians by shelling amongst other means, over ten thousand, in the Donbas from 2014.
Russia and China could offer maritime insurance with themselves as guarantors, bypassing Lloyds and the like. Or are they already doing it?
By the way, it might be useful if there was an accidental leak of ‘secret’ targets for elimination on European NATO members territories. Concentrate their minds a bit.
There's no way to add bold, etc., in substack comments, so using all caps is understood and fine. Yes, Russia, China and others stepped into the vacated insurance market as part of being sovereign.
Thank you Karl! For the translation and sharing!
Is there no alternative for insurance companies like Lloyds that use premiums as weapons, it would be nice if Brics takes the lead.
Thanks karlof, I note Lavrov's comment "There is also a paragraph on Ukraine, which we agreed with, because the main idea in it is a call for an honest and reasonable conversation about peace on realistic grounds." Well that would have gone down badly with the Ukraine regional administration in the Russian Federation if the report at Strategic Culture is any indicator. See: https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/11/18/will-be-no-diplomacy-despite-wests-desperate-lobby/
At least the Russian Federation borders next to Romania and Poland will be highly secure to exclude vigilante attacks on its territory. IMO denazification and demilitarisation are yet some way off.
And then Lavrov fields a question or two and in response to the USA and long range bluster attacks he says "As for Donald Trump's position on Ukraine. I can't guess. He said he was a "president of peace" and not a "president of war." People, politicians in particular, who say they prefer peace to war generally deserve support." What can one say but - just take a look these freaks Trump is promoting and weep. This is a war team of testosterone pumped chicken hawks ffs and the team does not deserve any support and I would be cautious regarding Trump. I guess by this time next year we will be better informed.
Perhaps the gymnasium could invent a drinking game to acompany the confirmation process that follows next in the usa. Could be dangerous but we might as well get a laugh while we can.
The wife and I discussed that a bit over dinner. My A1C doesn't let me drink as much as I once did. We still must transit 61 more days of Team Biden whose moves serve to reinforce what I wrote about thinking you're strong but actually being very weak. When Team Trump is finally confirmed, it will find nothing but cobwebs in the armory, a rat-infested Navy and just a handful of AD missiles that can't hit anything, while the MIC drowns in PE ratios having no relation on its ability to produce anything worthy.
Meanwhile, Manturov reports on the National projects to ensure technological leadership that will showcase the vast chasm between the developmental cultures of Russia and the Outlaw US Empire.