"Logistical routes for the transfer of troops and weapons across the Atlantic to the "eastern flank" are being tested. Weapons depots are also located there..."
I laughed when I saw that bit. If NATO thinks they can do any of that in a hot war, they definitely haven't read Martyanov's books. Russia would destroy all of that in the first few hours of a hot war.
Personally I think all of this NATO posturing is a scam to cover sucking more tax dollars from the European electorate to the coffers of their - and the US - military-industrial-complex. While they might do something stupid to start a war, I suspect they really have no actual intention to do so.
They're simply playing out the same-old, same-old story of an external threat to justify internal thievery.
The US neocons no doubt want a war, using NATO to 'weaken Russia" like they use the Ukrainians - in fact, I said so even before the current conflict started - but I doubt the Europeans will actually pull it off on their own hook.
So unless things actually heat up directly on the Ukraine border with NATO, once Russia takes all of Ukraine, I'm going to ignore Ukraine and NATO and concentrate on the Middle East where things are heating up much faster and equally if not more likely to result in WWIII.
IMO, Russia will not proceed beyond eliminating Ukraine as a threat, although there's still the possibility of Moldova becoming another very sore spot if the elections get stolen by Sandu as I expect. Once solidifying its Near Abroad Security, Russia will wait for the toll of geoeconomics to alter Rump Europe's politics. Russia has far too much work to do development-wise, plus the additional burden of revamping Greater Russia in what was Ukraine.
Of course Russia won't do anything beyond Ukraine. Once they have that Western Ukraine Military District, they won't have any need to bother with NATO at all. It will be decades before NATO can produce any ground threat to Russia, if that.
As I've pointed out, that's the entire goal of the SMO - remove not just Ukraine, but NATO as a threat. To do the latter merely needs sufficient defensive force on the border of Greater Russia - no actual war needed.
That only leaves the US and its nuclear arsenal as a threat - and the US isn't likely to try a first strike once its systems like the Aegis Ashore have been countered by that Russian Western Ukraine Military District. That leaves the US with only one option: direct initiation of a nuclear first strike without the benefit of a decapitation strike or follow-up strike from the Aegis Ashore systems in Poland, Romania, and eventually Germany.
NATO, etc. exist to justify spending trillions of dollars in pentagon/MIC black holes like F-35 and Ford Class carriers.......
"Projecting" these cost plus good dividends shining things against goatherds is one thing, pitting them against an historic nation quite a trade!
US has neglected, shipyards as useless as for profit aircraft factories, its naval power in a senseless career at being an aircraft dominated land power. Neither is up to snuff.
To be honest, I am depressed and without hope that Europe can free itself from the US occupying power and become independent on its own. Theoretically, the opposition AfD could come to power in Germany, for example, which wants peaceful cooperation with Russia and China. But I don't believe that the USA and the "Deep State" will allow that to happen. Not even if the AfD wins an absolute majority in elections. Too much is at stake for the USA.
Only the collapse, the implosion of the USA can enable European opposition organizations to achieve independence and pursue national interests.
What happens next, after the defeat in Ukraine of the tiny band of fascists running the state, intimidating its politicians, levying tolls on its economic oligarchs and charming the bozos, such as Rutte, Trudeau and Starmer, who court favour in Washington, is the disintegration of NATO.
This will include the backpedalling of Finland and Sweden from the incredible stupidity of joining the organisation as it was about to die from bad habits and old age. It will also feature the retreat from catastrophe of the former Warsaw Pact members (apart from Poland which is irrevocably committed to russophobic alliances) as they become aware that when the current proxy warrior is broken they will be next in line for martyrdom.
The coming years are going to be bad times, very bad times, for most people. Initially this may lead to right wing faux populism but there is no future in that- man cannot live on blood and bile. The only way out for the popular masses is some form of socialism which begins with the confiscation of the plunder that capitalists have accumulated. Democracy backed by millions of people who know what they want and are determined to have it.
I agree with the thinking that "to get the Outlaw US Empire to cease its hegemonic nature, it must be forced to defend its homeland". Only by suffering what it imposes on others, either directly or by proxy, the Outlaw US Empire will finally learn a lesson!
Last week Foreign minister Lavrov spoke about 1945, the occupation of Germany and Austria, how this and many other things were discussed and agreed through various agreements and declarations, and generally violated by the enemy governments of America, England and France.
Considering this, how we end a special military operation will be very interesting.
Thanks very much for the FYI as that essay completely eluded me. After reading to the Tehran Conference, the one big factor not present with the SMO settlement are the input of other nations--I expect Russia to announce what it announces when it comes time to do so. The key issue IMO is denazification which can only be purged within what now constitutes Ukraine over the course of many generations, meaning certain regions of the present Ukraine will remain under Russian rule until the purge is completed however long that takes--and it could take a very long time, 100+ years.
I have thought about this for many days, I wanted to say something, unlike what many have said, repetition is generally useless. Sincerely I feel defeated, for the words do not manifest to express what I need to say.
However, I will repeat what I learned from my family, generally only listening to them talk together. After the victory and for a long time they believed that it was necessary to continue moving until reaching France. That in fact the defeat of fascism was not achieved by reaching Berlin, no it lived and it would again return maybe long after they were gone.
Why? Because in fact England and America are fascist and were never honorable. This is said by Minister Lavrov in that essay, they never honored anything. Some in my family said this from experiences, what was witnessed.
There is too much for this type of reply, therefore I repeat, my ability to express is not available, but it is necessary to return to the present, the past demonstrated this anyway.
England and America are terrorists and it is not possible to make agreements with such creatures. They never did honor any, not one time. Ukraine and even more Israel are guilty of all the crimes but in reality this is because of England and America. They enabled all of this murder and devastation. This is what terrorists do, they do it everywhere and they always have.
So therefore we can destroy everything on the journey to the border of Poland. Iran can destroy Israel, everything and everyone in it, free Palestinians, give them back their land, recognise them as a sovereign country with full membership at the United Nations.
The guns will be silent but the killing will never stop. England and America are terrorists and they will train, sponsor and support other proxies to hide behind. They will never be peaceful without somehow also exterminating them, whoever really is in the shadows of all this. This is the dilemma we all must accept.
I honor and greatly respect your attempt to tell what might seem nasty truths to someone living within the Empire but are actually known and understood by him/me. At my VK. I wrote several essays that expanded upon shorter commentary about the fascist nature of the Outlaw US Empire, so I'm well versed in the topic.
There're a few of us, historians and political-economists, who populate a small school of thought called Objectivists--we seek objectivity and attempt to keep other ideologies away from our reasoning. There are probably more in Russia than here, but that's just my impression. You'll see a further example of that when you read what I just published.
There're a very strong series of myths that take the place of objective US History that are supported by the establishment though a very hard to penetrate narrative. Look at Santa Claus and you'll understand just how hard it is to tell your children the truth. Same goes for religion. It's very hard to contest what the majority says is true since its normal for humans to want to be part of the in-group, not isolated as a lonely member of the out-group. When we get older and being part of the in-group is no longer important, we have the opportunity to break free and deal with all the lies we were told earlier in life. Often we find that others aren't ready or willing to break with the lies of the past, so a contest occurs between our relationships and our beliefs--what's more valuable?
History shows that Good will eventually triumph over Bad. But for Good to last and keep Bad at bay will take a great effort by all people of the world since the Bad are actually very few in number. Once they are removed from power and the means to gain power, they must be properly disciplined. Then improvements in global society must be made to ensure such people are incapable of attaining power again. A great deal has to be done in the early years of childhood when such psychologies get implanted. And some sort of social detection system will need to be employed which will enrage those wanting complete freedom from the state.
If in the future you find the words you wanted to express, please feel free to return to the topic and tell me as that's what our discussions are for--honest communication while dealing with difficult problems affecting us both.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/why-does-the-west-hate-russia-so-much.html You are "frighteningly" right! Excellent presentation! Connor Gallagher's article and your comment are essentially about one thing: the World may not have another chance to deplete this hydra anymore. Only, there is "one small problem":if the capitalist mode of economy itself is not changed, not "modified", the victory of the Global South over the "golden billion", over time, may lead to a "different format" of imperialism and the struggle will begin again...(Yandex translator)
Igor, thanks for your reply. How to safeguard the future provided we can expose the ancien regime for what it is and keep it isolated to the host of its final refuge, which is the Outlaw US Empire. However, the first part of the task must be accomplished, which IMO is close--by 2030 is my projection. The issue after that is the need for a new political-economic system that provides for the needs and solves the problems of the Global Majority. Fortunately, that's in the process of becoming given the two somewhat different yet similar ongoing social experiments in Russia, China and elsewhere. There's more beyond this short answer that will be explored in the weeks and months ahead.
Thank you very much. Alabama moon was interesting. I
agree with some outline but I believe that it is necessary to capture Kyiv. Anything less will leave America in charge, regardless of treaties and guarantors.
Only by installing a government convenient to us will the guns stop, even though the killing won't.
Not many on substack are in paid employment and strikes would mean we didn't get paid our pensions, though I'm sure TPTB would still get their salaries. Some work for multinational companies who would hire from other countries. I guess it would hasten the inevitable economic collapse of the US and its vassals.
NATO's rejection of the call for a European Security Agreement by the Russian Federation was also basically a declaration of economic war on the rest of Europe and its colonization by the US. Period.
When will Europeans wake up? I don't know. All I can state for sure is that I'm awake.
As for Jens Stoltenberg's statements made in June on putting nuclear weapons on alert, he himself hastened to deny them.
I can't see him misspeaking, OTOH, only the US can activate and release nuclear weapons. They all know that. What does he mean with 'on standby?'
SAC had bombers on standby, with pilots in the cockpit, weapons fused and maybe even engines burning.
The next alert level had planes fueled, weapons fused and the pilots suited up resting in a nearby bunker.
Missiles need to be fueled and prepped prior to departure.
I do not foresee a US/NATO war with Russia. Putin will tell some entity how high to jump when he is good and ready and has found a legal entity to represent Ukraine.
Some see the conflict point having moved from Europe to West Asia. The really big issue for the Empire is inability to provide proper logistical support to any one of the several hotspots its manufactured, thus exposing its amazing lack of strategic thinking as Martyanov is constantly railing about. Just sink all USN oilers and that entire military arm is crippled and rendered useless.
There is only one head of the snake, or should I say the enabler of the snake, the us dollar. We the people can be saved by war or finance, Putin's choice.
"Logistical routes for the transfer of troops and weapons across the Atlantic to the "eastern flank" are being tested. Weapons depots are also located there..."
I laughed when I saw that bit. If NATO thinks they can do any of that in a hot war, they definitely haven't read Martyanov's books. Russia would destroy all of that in the first few hours of a hot war.
Personally I think all of this NATO posturing is a scam to cover sucking more tax dollars from the European electorate to the coffers of their - and the US - military-industrial-complex. While they might do something stupid to start a war, I suspect they really have no actual intention to do so.
They're simply playing out the same-old, same-old story of an external threat to justify internal thievery.
The US neocons no doubt want a war, using NATO to 'weaken Russia" like they use the Ukrainians - in fact, I said so even before the current conflict started - but I doubt the Europeans will actually pull it off on their own hook.
So unless things actually heat up directly on the Ukraine border with NATO, once Russia takes all of Ukraine, I'm going to ignore Ukraine and NATO and concentrate on the Middle East where things are heating up much faster and equally if not more likely to result in WWIII.
IMO, Russia will not proceed beyond eliminating Ukraine as a threat, although there's still the possibility of Moldova becoming another very sore spot if the elections get stolen by Sandu as I expect. Once solidifying its Near Abroad Security, Russia will wait for the toll of geoeconomics to alter Rump Europe's politics. Russia has far too much work to do development-wise, plus the additional burden of revamping Greater Russia in what was Ukraine.
Of course Russia won't do anything beyond Ukraine. Once they have that Western Ukraine Military District, they won't have any need to bother with NATO at all. It will be decades before NATO can produce any ground threat to Russia, if that.
As I've pointed out, that's the entire goal of the SMO - remove not just Ukraine, but NATO as a threat. To do the latter merely needs sufficient defensive force on the border of Greater Russia - no actual war needed.
That only leaves the US and its nuclear arsenal as a threat - and the US isn't likely to try a first strike once its systems like the Aegis Ashore have been countered by that Russian Western Ukraine Military District. That leaves the US with only one option: direct initiation of a nuclear first strike without the benefit of a decapitation strike or follow-up strike from the Aegis Ashore systems in Poland, Romania, and eventually Germany.
NATO, etc. exist to justify spending trillions of dollars in pentagon/MIC black holes like F-35 and Ford Class carriers.......
"Projecting" these cost plus good dividends shining things against goatherds is one thing, pitting them against an historic nation quite a trade!
US has neglected, shipyards as useless as for profit aircraft factories, its naval power in a senseless career at being an aircraft dominated land power. Neither is up to snuff.
To be honest, I am depressed and without hope that Europe can free itself from the US occupying power and become independent on its own. Theoretically, the opposition AfD could come to power in Germany, for example, which wants peaceful cooperation with Russia and China. But I don't believe that the USA and the "Deep State" will allow that to happen. Not even if the AfD wins an absolute majority in elections. Too much is at stake for the USA.
Only the collapse, the implosion of the USA can enable European opposition organizations to achieve independence and pursue national interests.
We shall see. Geoeconomics has some axioms that are hard to defeat that do not favor the Outlaw US Empire.
What happens next, after the defeat in Ukraine of the tiny band of fascists running the state, intimidating its politicians, levying tolls on its economic oligarchs and charming the bozos, such as Rutte, Trudeau and Starmer, who court favour in Washington, is the disintegration of NATO.
This will include the backpedalling of Finland and Sweden from the incredible stupidity of joining the organisation as it was about to die from bad habits and old age. It will also feature the retreat from catastrophe of the former Warsaw Pact members (apart from Poland which is irrevocably committed to russophobic alliances) as they become aware that when the current proxy warrior is broken they will be next in line for martyrdom.
The coming years are going to be bad times, very bad times, for most people. Initially this may lead to right wing faux populism but there is no future in that- man cannot live on blood and bile. The only way out for the popular masses is some form of socialism which begins with the confiscation of the plunder that capitalists have accumulated. Democracy backed by millions of people who know what they want and are determined to have it.
I agree with the thinking that "to get the Outlaw US Empire to cease its hegemonic nature, it must be forced to defend its homeland". Only by suffering what it imposes on others, either directly or by proxy, the Outlaw US Empire will finally learn a lesson!
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1973716/?lang=ru
Last week Foreign minister Lavrov spoke about 1945, the occupation of Germany and Austria, how this and many other things were discussed and agreed through various agreements and declarations, and generally violated by the enemy governments of America, England and France.
Considering this, how we end a special military operation will be very interesting.
Thanks very much for the FYI as that essay completely eluded me. After reading to the Tehran Conference, the one big factor not present with the SMO settlement are the input of other nations--I expect Russia to announce what it announces when it comes time to do so. The key issue IMO is denazification which can only be purged within what now constitutes Ukraine over the course of many generations, meaning certain regions of the present Ukraine will remain under Russian rule until the purge is completed however long that takes--and it could take a very long time, 100+ years.
However, there's also the problem of the basis for Neonazism resting on the shoulders of extremist Russophobia that's been cultivated within Europe over many decades.. IMO, that's part of the issue Emmanual Todd has which forms the basis for today's MoA article, https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/emmanuel-todd-on-europes-hopefully-fading-submission-to-the-us.html
I have thought about this for many days, I wanted to say something, unlike what many have said, repetition is generally useless. Sincerely I feel defeated, for the words do not manifest to express what I need to say.
However, I will repeat what I learned from my family, generally only listening to them talk together. After the victory and for a long time they believed that it was necessary to continue moving until reaching France. That in fact the defeat of fascism was not achieved by reaching Berlin, no it lived and it would again return maybe long after they were gone.
Why? Because in fact England and America are fascist and were never honorable. This is said by Minister Lavrov in that essay, they never honored anything. Some in my family said this from experiences, what was witnessed.
There is too much for this type of reply, therefore I repeat, my ability to express is not available, but it is necessary to return to the present, the past demonstrated this anyway.
England and America are terrorists and it is not possible to make agreements with such creatures. They never did honor any, not one time. Ukraine and even more Israel are guilty of all the crimes but in reality this is because of England and America. They enabled all of this murder and devastation. This is what terrorists do, they do it everywhere and they always have.
So therefore we can destroy everything on the journey to the border of Poland. Iran can destroy Israel, everything and everyone in it, free Palestinians, give them back their land, recognise them as a sovereign country with full membership at the United Nations.
The guns will be silent but the killing will never stop. England and America are terrorists and they will train, sponsor and support other proxies to hide behind. They will never be peaceful without somehow also exterminating them, whoever really is in the shadows of all this. This is the dilemma we all must accept.
I honor and greatly respect your attempt to tell what might seem nasty truths to someone living within the Empire but are actually known and understood by him/me. At my VK. I wrote several essays that expanded upon shorter commentary about the fascist nature of the Outlaw US Empire, so I'm well versed in the topic.
There're a few of us, historians and political-economists, who populate a small school of thought called Objectivists--we seek objectivity and attempt to keep other ideologies away from our reasoning. There are probably more in Russia than here, but that's just my impression. You'll see a further example of that when you read what I just published.
There're a very strong series of myths that take the place of objective US History that are supported by the establishment though a very hard to penetrate narrative. Look at Santa Claus and you'll understand just how hard it is to tell your children the truth. Same goes for religion. It's very hard to contest what the majority says is true since its normal for humans to want to be part of the in-group, not isolated as a lonely member of the out-group. When we get older and being part of the in-group is no longer important, we have the opportunity to break free and deal with all the lies we were told earlier in life. Often we find that others aren't ready or willing to break with the lies of the past, so a contest occurs between our relationships and our beliefs--what's more valuable?
History shows that Good will eventually triumph over Bad. But for Good to last and keep Bad at bay will take a great effort by all people of the world since the Bad are actually very few in number. Once they are removed from power and the means to gain power, they must be properly disciplined. Then improvements in global society must be made to ensure such people are incapable of attaining power again. A great deal has to be done in the early years of childhood when such psychologies get implanted. And some sort of social detection system will need to be employed which will enrage those wanting complete freedom from the state.
If in the future you find the words you wanted to express, please feel free to return to the topic and tell me as that's what our discussions are for--honest communication while dealing with difficult problems affecting us both.
May Peace find us both!
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/why-does-the-west-hate-russia-so-much.html You are "frighteningly" right! Excellent presentation! Connor Gallagher's article and your comment are essentially about one thing: the World may not have another chance to deplete this hydra anymore. Only, there is "one small problem":if the capitalist mode of economy itself is not changed, not "modified", the victory of the Global South over the "golden billion", over time, may lead to a "different format" of imperialism and the struggle will begin again...(Yandex translator)
Igor, thanks for your reply. How to safeguard the future provided we can expose the ancien regime for what it is and keep it isolated to the host of its final refuge, which is the Outlaw US Empire. However, the first part of the task must be accomplished, which IMO is close--by 2030 is my projection. The issue after that is the need for a new political-economic system that provides for the needs and solves the problems of the Global Majority. Fortunately, that's in the process of becoming given the two somewhat different yet similar ongoing social experiments in Russia, China and elsewhere. There's more beyond this short answer that will be explored in the weeks and months ahead.
Thank you very much. Alabama moon was interesting. I
agree with some outline but I believe that it is necessary to capture Kyiv. Anything less will leave America in charge, regardless of treaties and guarantors.
Only by installing a government convenient to us will the guns stop, even though the killing won't.
I will write the rest on the ASEAN work.
General strike
Not many on substack are in paid employment and strikes would mean we didn't get paid our pensions, though I'm sure TPTB would still get their salaries. Some work for multinational companies who would hire from other countries. I guess it would hasten the inevitable economic collapse of the US and its vassals.
NATO's rejection of the call for a European Security Agreement by the Russian Federation was also basically a declaration of economic war on the rest of Europe and its colonization by the US. Period.
When will Europeans wake up? I don't know. All I can state for sure is that I'm awake.
As for Jens Stoltenberg's statements made in June on putting nuclear weapons on alert, he himself hastened to deny them.
I can't see him misspeaking, OTOH, only the US can activate and release nuclear weapons. They all know that. What does he mean with 'on standby?'
SAC had bombers on standby, with pilots in the cockpit, weapons fused and maybe even engines burning.
The next alert level had planes fueled, weapons fused and the pilots suited up resting in a nearby bunker.
Missiles need to be fueled and prepped prior to departure.
I do not foresee a US/NATO war with Russia. Putin will tell some entity how high to jump when he is good and ready and has found a legal entity to represent Ukraine.
Some see the conflict point having moved from Europe to West Asia. The really big issue for the Empire is inability to provide proper logistical support to any one of the several hotspots its manufactured, thus exposing its amazing lack of strategic thinking as Martyanov is constantly railing about. Just sink all USN oilers and that entire military arm is crippled and rendered useless.
There is only one head of the snake, or should I say the enabler of the snake, the us dollar. We the people can be saved by war or finance, Putin's choice.