Negotiations Musing at MoA

Back to the conflict in Ukraine today with Moon of Alabama featuring “Neocons Attempt To Stall U.S.-Russia Talks.” There was some discussion of the conflict at today’s 40-minute Intel Roundtable that I suggest readers watch, and a great many opinions voiced in response to b’s article, although many were done by just a few that rehash their comments. My contributions began by linking to the political cartoon you see in the header (hat tip to Pepe Escobar). That was followed by this:

Russia's lead negotiator from the talks on the 24th said he didn't expect negotiations to end with a proper settlement until early 2026 given the pace and complexity. The clear inability or unwillingness by Team Trump to control Zelensky and the Ukraine military is blatantly obvious with Ukraine's daily violations of what it actually agreed. The unwillingness of Team Trump to pull the support plug is just as clear. It appears from their utterances that Team Trump's blind to the messages those two behaviors send to Russia. Sure, there might be some modicum of trust by Putin in Trump as a person, but this situation transcends that issue--why negotiate when the other side can't deliver on what it agrees to? I mentioned that normal relations have yet to be fully restored as there're still snags caused by the Americans for Russia to reestablish its consulates--tasks that were supposed to be accomplished in March.

Trump's neocons need to remove their heads from their exceptionalist asses and realize that the Outlaw US Empire has lost its war against Russia and thus there will be no concessions made by Russia. And from what can be discerned so far, no concession of merit has been made by the losing side, which is where all the concessions will come from. But without the ability to control what Ukraine does, any concession by the Empire will be false. And that's why the current negotiations will fail as Team Putin has foreseen.

That needed to be followed with some evidence since many are missing the point:

As I mentioned, behavior speaks volumes and none of it is lost on Maria Zakharova. TASS today reports her saying:

The ongoing Ukrainian attacks on the Russian civilian population prove that peace is not in the Kiev regime's vocabulary, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

"It has been reliably established that the modern Ukrainian followers of Bandera hunt innocent and defenseless people every day using drones. Drones stuffed with explosives are cold-bloodedly aimed at any person caught in the neo-Nazis' field of vision," the diplomat emphasized. According to her, "[Vladimir] Zelensky's thugs are mercilessly opening fire on women, the elderly and children, trying to hit residential buildings, shops, schools, hospitals, social and transport infrastructure facilities."

"All these facts show that the Kiev junta's plans do not include a ceasefire and achieving a political settlement of the conflict," the spokeswoman said. "Zelensky's regime has no political will for peace. Its supporters are pathologically obsessed with bloodshed, terror, causing damage and maximum suffering to the civilian population," Zakharova pointed out. [My Emphasis]

Results of those attacks are shown on Russian national news daily. Zero observance of the highly touted energy infrastructure ceasefire is also well known to Russians. Realities make the spin put to events by Kirill Dmitriev reckless from a Russain POV:

“We are noting a positive dynamic in our relations,” Dmitriev told reporters on Thursday evening.

He added that “significant progress has already been made” towards reaching a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

“For example, under the leadership of presidents [Vladimir] Putin and [Donald] Trump, an agreement has been made to refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine. It is a first step to deescalate the Ukraine conflict,” the envoy said....

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Kiev has routinely been violating the truce, including four attacks on Russian energy sites on Thursday alone. Ukraine has been targeting fuel depots, gas facilities, and elements of the power grid, the MOD said.

Kiev has claimed that it was observing the energy truce and accused Moscow of striking gas facilities operated by the energy giant Naftogaz.

I recall the BigLie: "Peace is at hand." Spin clashing with reality is something the Outlaw US Empire does constantly, so Team Putin needs to beware its words. Ryabkov in contrast is honest saying the roots have yet to be addressed, and that's where the heart of these negotiations lies.

I then got a reply:

Russia's lead negotiator from the talks on the 24th said he didn't expect negotiations to end with a proper settlement until early 2026 given the pace and complexity.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 4 2025 17:04 utc | 19

So... that's why the pace has been glacial? To the last ukranian and to a 2 million bayonets RF army?

This points to waiting for a complete capitulation from a country that no longer has any men to even play any gladio moves?

So the 2 million are for something else...

If europe wants to start something not sure they can wait for 2026q1

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 4 2025 21:20 utc | 83

I followed up with this:

Newbie | Apr 4 2025 21:20 utc | 83--

No. It will take that long to deal with the roots of the problem since Team Trump has shown no willingness to even talk about that portion of the overall issue, according to Ryabkov who certainly knows. And then there are those pesky facts that Maaria Zakharova notes weekly and are broadcast to Russians daily. Putin and Dmitriev have dangled very juicy carrots in front of American eyes; but until the roots are excavated and burnt to cinders, those carrots will remain dangling just out of reach.

My comment citing Zakharova was replied to:

This is being controlled by Wiesbaden and London. Everything else is just smokescreen for the media to create a culprit (Russia) and justify the subsequent expansion.

And that brought forth this response:

smartfox | Apr 4 2025 21:58 utc | 93--

Thanks for your reply. Last Friday it was Ray McGovern who said MI6 was "working hand in glove" with the Kiev Nazis. I wonder what he'll say today when I watch that chat in a few minutes. Doctorow made an interesting observation about Finland's Stubb's altered POV after his meeting with Trump last week:

"As I began to say, when Finnish president Stubb visited Trump for a round of golf in Mar-a-Lago and spent 7 hours with the President, I assumed that this did not look good for the Russians, since Stubb has been one of the most Russophobic leaders in the EU. However, within a couple of days it became clear that Trump had given Stubb a good lesson on what's what and who's who in this world, not the other way around. Stubb was now quoted by journalists as saying that Europe should prepare for normalizing relations with Russia. Then yesterday he added to this, saying someone among the European leaders should take the initiative and make contact with Putin. He specifically named Britain and-or France as the best candidates for the job. Nota bene: no mention of the EU's Russia-bashing vice president for foreign relations Kaja Kallas!"

The discourse continued:

@ karlof1 | Apr 4 2025 22:08 utc | 98
This, too, is nothing more than a means of presenting a supposed willingness to talk to Russia. In the end, they can say, "We've tried everything."
In my opinion, the background is probably that in Western Europe, except in the hard-line countries, but even there, the population is partly anti-Russian, but no one wants to "pull the potatoes out of the fire" themselves. So, no necessary ground troops, and probably not even Taurus. Just incite others, risk nothing themselves.

And my reply:

smartfox | Apr 4 2025 22:26 utc | 108--

Thanks for your reply and the valid hypothesis it contains. Regarding what Rubio lied about today--Johnson and McGovern's assessment from their chat--The main point brought forward is the Outlaw US Empire refuses to listen/read what the Top Russians have been saying for almost an entire year--the root causes must be dealt with; if not, then we'll solve it all on our own--that last portion has also been stated. McGovern urges Putin to make a deal soon because he fears Trump risks being JFKd for reasons not related to Ukraine. My POV, not that it matters, having observed all this since the USSR's dissolution and its history since 1945, Russia will need to solve this itself. BigLie Propaganda has so deluded the West that it's incapable of thinking outside that box. There's no way Rubio can honesty work for Trump's detente with Russia because he's been indoctrinated that amounts to treason. US Primacy must be upheld no matter the cost--Sieg Heil! Rubio is what's known as a weathervane--he'll go in whatever direction the wind's blowing.

The reality as I've written on several times over the last two months is that the negotiations actually have three actors--Russia, Ukraine and NATO, with the Outlaw US Empire being the latter's representative. We now have a situation where NATO is saying the Empire no longer represents it, and that faction doesn't want peace with Russia, nor does Ukraine. Ergo, the negotiations are pointless as the roots cannot be addressed so no deal can be consummated based on the winner's demands.

I closed my musings with these last thoughts:

In 2014, the Outlaw US Empire empowered the Nazis they nurtured since 1945 to kill Russians since that's what Nazis do. The Nazis don't want an end to the war because millions of Russians remain to be killed. Instead of being directly in bed with the CIA as they once were, Ukraine's Nazis are now in bed with the UK's MI6, and MI6 are closet Nazis, like closet gays. Thus, the Americans have lost control over their Nazi pet, which greatly impedes making a deal with Russia. That extra bit of explanation should help barflies understand what I wrote at 130. Unfortunately, Putin's UN administration suggestion needs NATO approval, which currently won't happen, so the conflict will continue.

The easiest way to arrive at a solution is for Ukraine regime change that eliminates the Nazis and their ties to NATO, meaning Ukraine returns to being America's pet or better yet becomes completely independent, which would alter the nature of the negotiations.

It appears we need another cartoon to accurately portray all the actors with NATO represented by Starmer and the Ukraine Nazis by Zelensky since we don’t know whom exactly the #1 Nazi is he veils. The other two are just as butt naked as Trump since neither has any cards to play unless we count their negatives—for example, Trump has some negative cards: his lines of material support, which is what NATO also commands. Zelensky has what remains of his military. None of those actors have what it takes to beat Putin’s hand as he has Russia’s armed forces, the Russian nation and its industrial base as his cards. Yes, NATO and Trump have nukes, but are they any sort of asset in this situation? Russia can continue to liberate land until it’s liberated all it desires, which will cost further lives that only Putin seems to care about, notwithstanding Trump’s bleatings. If Trump cared, he’d cut the support lines.

I don’t see much of the above changing anytime soon. The roots need to be dug up, but only Russia and its friends are willing to dig.

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