If we look at the entire Syrian territory, we encounter several problems.
Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians, Jews and what is currently called HTS. There are various factions among the Kurds. The same goes for the HTS, which consists of murderers, thieves, smugglers, drug dealers and terrorists. I think the HTS will fragment and fight for power among themselves. I don't think Turkey can prevent that. The other religious communities are most at risk.
The irrigation project has been destroyed, the other region owns the breadbasket, another region owns Syria's oil and gas resources. Western sanctions have made the Syrian economy non-existent. No matter which regime rules in Damascus, Syria is not a viable entity.
What can Turkey do with Syrian territories? Turkey has become bigger on the map. But what benefit can Turkey derive from this? I don't see that yet. The same applies to Israel.
How much longer can the US military stay in the region?
Iran has suffered a strategic defeat? Perhaps. I don't know. But on the other hand, Iran benefits economically from doing business with the BRICS and the global South. What economic benefit has Iran had in West Asia? None. On the contrary, West Asia claimed resources. Can Israel defeat Iran in a war? No, Iran has military technologies to repel any attack and destroy Israel's production sites, energy supply, logistics centers with long-range weapons. How can the USA help Israel? With its useless aircraft carriers and its F-35 scrap? Their military bases are on a platter. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the West will also be plunged into economic chaos. Etc.
Medvedev in Beijing, Putin in Azerbaijan, Beloussov in North Korea and Shoigu in Iran. I don't know what is being planned. But I do see an elephant.
If NATO does not massively invade Ukraine and openly fight against Russia, then Russia will create facts there. If NATO enters into open warfare against Russia, then this war will not only devastate Europe, but will relatively quickly lead to Russia being forced to use its strategic weapons against targets in the USA. This is being said very openly in Moscow.
Yes, Syria at present is a vast potpourri of factions—a “hornet’s nest” as Marat Khairullen described it. Iran suffered at most a tactical setback, not a defeat. I do note that Aliyev wasn’t asked about Syria in the interview, which was surprising. The Syrian sands will continue to shift daily until they stop whenever that is.
I agree, the west's ponzi, declining industrial capacity, and artisanal weapons systems are a weak hand, so it could be now or never. GAO reports make interesting reading on US readiness, so it's up to its euro proxies to do the job.
I don't like this one bit... Not for the reason you may think when looking at the blue half moon map... but because it's a make believe, a US-Deepstate illusion, a fatamorgana... being presented as if this is what is in store... for us all here on our little planet Earth... However in the real world... where Russia and China are as well as the global majority who benefit from the stand these 2 countries have and are taking, which is, the 500 years of colonialism are coming to an end... no matter how many wet dream the West have. Amen.
The Arch map is an excellent depiction of the geopolitical goals of British then American Imperial Policy since it was envisioned by Mahan then Mackinder almost 150 years ago. We may not like it, but it’s representative of past and ongoing policy and is in no way an “illusion.” The goal of the Russia, China and the members of the institutions they’ve formed is to defeat the Arch and negate the remnants of the Maritime Great Powers. The power projection forces can now be easily defeated, but the other means used remain to be combatted and expunged like those being employed in Armenia and attempted again in Georgia.
Thank you Karl, interesting essay. What I do wonder after reading this piece is how, given the ease with which Syria was overrun and how the U.S. is attempting to restore its influence by fostering instability in certain regions (seemingly succeeding in Europe, the Middle East, and now with Russia preoccupied by the war and China appearing to stand on the sidelines), how effective BRICS and the SCO will truly be in challenging the hegemony of the U.S. and NATO. Can BRICS overcome the divisions within Africa and India? I also think that Israel’s role in this broader strategy might be larger than it appears, especially given its influence in shaping Middle Eastern dynamics and aligning with U.S. interests.
The Zionists have long been the Empire's West Asian proxy, a status unlikely to change anytime soon. In Asia, the ASEAN has gone a long way to evening out relations. The only real problem is the Philippines, while Taiwan will remain China's regardless. IMO, there's an increasing awareness by South Asians that they're being played and that the SCO is helping that realization. That same realization is also dawning on more African nations thanks to the increased dialog with China and Russia and the decades of broken promises by the West. Yes, there're several severe problems remaining from imperialism and maldistribution of resources that are very thorny. But can be resolved. In both regions, all Western influence must be expunged except for the very few agencies that are genuine NGOs through the adoption of foreign agent laws and limits on western embassy staffing. The focus must be development of and in the national interest.
Africa is now the zone of heightened interest. The U.S. Administration sees the region as an unlimited natural reservoir of dangerous infections' agents and a test ground for experimental medications.
Installing Huawei's very effective comms infrastructure will be a statement of sovereignty. Expunging western platforms from the "internet" is crucial in preventing the information space being overrun by western psyops, etc. Thailand has lagged, a fact lamented by Brian Berletic. Singapore sits between Malaysia and Indonesia, two significant and largely Muslim countries, otherwise I'm skeptical of their sitting on two chairs approach.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia have new governments. Russia and China have long interacted with both nations. All seek collective Harmony, the Empire doesn’t. The next page will soon be turned.
I think "the west" aka US/UK/Brussels must believe they have a card to play in domestic Russian politics; on the simple end: get rid of Putin. More complex: get rid of Putin and "decolonize" (balkanize) the RF along with the usual Shock Doctrine/Disaster Capitalism or just plain neoliberal "restructuring" and austerity in the component nations of the newly broken up "heartland." Otherwise, they seem to be wasting their time and moving all of us closer to nuclear war. And these monsters and vampires in the west have no qualms about taking it right up to the razor's edge - the brink - just to see if their bluff is called and the rest of us suffer for it. Business as usual.
NATO proxies within Russia are now terrorists not politicians. Unless he does something way out of character and against Russia’s interests which are extremely doubtful, Putin will finish is term in 2030 and retire.
Agree with that. For the most part. But if things ever start getting dicey for Putin and his coalition, there are politicians who can and will be bought off. Things move slowly until they move quickly. As we saw with Assad. And it will probably take the terrorists you mentioned to kick off any politically fraught time in RF for him.
IMO, some response after the Kazan attacks must be coming. Of Russia’s political parties, all are in Putin’s camp, while there’re still a few Europhiles. As usual, the Direct Line revealed Russia has plenty of problems to solve, but that was well known beforehand.
Thanks for the article and the links, which connect some dots. It's still early days yet I think...
Not sure I understood the following sentence unless the word in [] should have been there. Although I do suspect that even assuming the US and the Occupation entity knew of the attack the speed of the advance was the surprise. If I have misunderstood - my apologies.
"Since the SAA stood down, the Zionists and Americans immediately began bombing all known arms depots and other military targets so HTS would [not] gain them and proves that they didn’t have any foreknowledge."
I liked this bit of Mr Bhadrakumar's article:
"Putin openly acknowledged that Russia keeps contacts with the HTS and their conversation will have a bearing on the fate of the bases in Latakia. Russia is offering that the international community may use the bases to handle humanitarian assistance to Syria."
The EU seems to have insisted on the removal of Russian bases from Syria before they are prepared to lift any sanctions. Could this be another instance of Mr Putin 'trolling' EU imbeciles?
"The Zionists had no clue and were so badly beaten by Hezbollah they sued for a ceasefire."
Wait... so, do you think that it was just a mere coincidence that the terrorist groups started their attack against Assad's Syria on the same day the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah???
That’s a good question but I’ve given it very little thought. How much was coincidence and how much was coordinated will likely remain unknown for a bit of time. Since I count the Zionists as one of the terrorist groups, then IMO there was no coincidence it changed fronts since the ceasefire allowed for that. IMO, there’s lots happening backstage that’s critical to what we see on the frontstage. The Zionists think they’ve won a victory whereas I see them having won nothing. I await Iran’s next move, although it’s possible I’ll need to wait quite awhile.
They have won nothing? They have occupied Mount Hermon, a key strategic point overlooking part of Lebanon and Syria, and they have advanced up to a few kilometres away from Damascus! If they want, they can now enter Lebanon from the border between the latter and Syria and advance straight to Beirut, bypassing Hezbollah's strongholds in southern Lebanon.
I know of the past aid and support given to terrorists by the Zionist terrorists. By "not winning" I meant they didn't have to defeat anyone to make their recent gains. On your last sentence, yes I have a hard time disavowing my initial reaction and writing in response to the crisis. Perhaps I'm trying to find whatever light that can be found within all the darkness. I suppose the better policy would have seen all the terrorists killed instead of being shipped to Idlib so they could fight again. But at the time, that policy was seen as brilliant since it avoided more civilian deaths and urban destruction.
Thanks for this Karl. Any Thank You for your valuable input here throughout the year.
I checked out the maps of West Asia, main focus on Ottoman, in 1914 and 1923 recently. Now I look at the map you provide above. The Kurds, and not only in Syria, were screwed by the colonial British/French post WWI - 30million Kurds and no State. Now a proxy/ally of US in Syria - and to be screwed again.
On the Big Picture - agree, conflict to continue. We fight on - 'mode of being' is at stake.
I have some very important questions about WW1’s ending arrangements that are bugging me, but I haven’t had the time to get the answers. Not that they’ll alter today’s situation.
IANAH (historian), but as a ‘follow the money’ guy who enjoys playing “connect-a-dot” I can’t help but note that the U. S. joined WWI halfway through in 1918 with CONSIDERABLE commitment of Blood and Treasure - and that treasure was made possible with creation of the Federal Reserve Bank (in 1912 IIRC). Who are the main winners of armed conflict? The ‘Central’ banks that create and lend the money for the purchase of war materiel and to feed, clothe, train and PAY (and, sadly, bury) soldiers to prosecute said conflict. So, besides the banks, cui bono? Those answers will hopefully be gleaned right here at the Gym!!
Seasons Greetings to all, best wishes for the New Year, and please, TRY to be of Good Cheer!! And remember……..
Wilson promised peace but entered the war to ensure the banker’s loans would be repaid. So, yes, follow what was done by the ancien regime to reverse its political standing in Europe beginning in the late 1870s as the reformist political-economists sought to end their ability to collect rents. That’s the key marker that few historians examine but rules the roost. And of course, communism also promised to end their rent seeking, which is why a war was waged on it and still is.
Escobar talked some days ago about the body language of Lavrov in Doha, that he never has seen Lavrov so angry. Escobar said also that Lavrov seemed to be surprised there, that Saturday - and Escobar seemed to indicate that there was a deal above the level of foreign ministries. Does that mean, in clear text, that Putin would have not informed Lavrov about the deal with Erdogan? That would be highly unusual, and Lavrov may ask for demission. He wanted to step down some time ago already.
That remains a mystery, Lavrov retains his position. IMO his anger was directed at Al-Jazeera and the backstabbing done by Qatar. I hope the incident gets explained in his memoirs if he decides to write them or by his biographer.
"One big question: Will Iran launch its retaliation strike on the Zionists prior to 20 January as a kick in the groin to Blinken and Sullivan while also sending a very clear message to Trump that Iran is very capable of both defending itself and demolishing whatever it choses in the region?"
My answer is No. I think they have been permanently reigned in. I expect at some point regime change is in the winds there - from external and internal forces. I'm doubting the security agreement with Russia will be signed in Jan as expected. No more Iranian missiles or arms for the Houthis, Hamas or Hezbollah not even the militias in Iraq maybe.
Israel won, Russia has been neutered, the US is in control of key players Turkey Saudis Gulf states, and Iran does not have a real friend left in the world now.
China is reevaluating its options in regards the efficacy of 'allies' I believe. Its silence is telling.
"Since the SAA stood down, the Zionists and Americans immediately began bombing all known arms depots and other military targets so HTS would 'NOT' (?) gain them and proves that they didn’t have any foreknowledge."
I am far from convinced this amounts to 'proof.' I am very skeptical about everyone's conclusions on what happened and why, who knew what and when. I am reserving judgment, and probably for a very long time. Far too much lying going on by all these very untrustworthy sides here - Russia Iran included. Therefore, no one attempting an arm's length analysis has a real handle on the facts let alone what it might actually mean. I've heard Putin's commentary and while is sounds plausible, I am not willing to buy it either any more than believing Erdogan, HTS the US or Israel.
But thanks for the summary, you gave it a fair shake.
So you think Putin had no idea that Assad was on his way out. I thought Putin was probably encouraging Syria to establish ties with the Gulf States. Playing the slow game like he ( Putin ) does with Erdogan. Also I think Asma Assad's condition with Leukemia had alot to do with Assad leaving
Well, Assad has been trying to gain a foothold in the Arab League for over a year. And BRICS is also courting the Arab Gulf States, I thought it might have been a plan encouraged by Putin....not leaving but turning away from Iran. I guess though, that Assad really wanted to do business not war and the Americans wanted Syria. He just couldn't - but why would he have turned down the help from Iran I wonder. I don't think Assad is evil. He's a family guy and his wife is very sick. I just don't really get why he betrayed his army. Maybe his army betrayed him, as that letter of explanation he wrote said he was surprised too, when they fell apart without a fight in Aleppo
Hi Karl - I read it now. Yeah - that's what I thought although I didn't think Iran was in on it. But maybe they were. It was planned because Assad was at his wits end and no money and no way to even pay his army properly. But Dr Marandi doesn't think Iran was in on a quiet exit for Assad. Even when Russia didn' eliminate the Idlib enclave I wondered if it was a plan...thinking back on that. But again, if the US said that there was no way they would allow themselves or the terrorist enclave in Idlib to be eliminated, Russia might have backed down.
but by not getting rid of the terrorists in Idlib - Syria today is no more. And Russia has terrorists for neighbours. Which is why they went after the terrorists in the first place. It doesn't make any sense, unless they felt they couldn't deal with war against the US. Which is why Putin left Donbass for so long, although he says he regrets it now. After the fact.
thanks so much - will read it. Also....why did Putin leave that enclave of terrorists and also the American presence. in the oil field and wheat field regions...though I have heard and believe it - that the US told Assad and Putin that those things STAY WHERE THEY ARE or US would start bombing the shit out of Syria and fighting the Russians.
Again, it’s hard to lay blame. I did in my initial reaction, the failure to eliminate the Idlib terrorist enclave. Russia removing the Outlaw US Empire troops would have meant war. We can second-guess all we want, but since we weren’t directly involved in the policy process, there isn’t much we can say. Recall that Covid entered the game on the heels of getting the last batch of terrorists shipped to Idlib.
yes. Seems crazy that Russia would plan this 4 years in advance. Your first take on it was excellent I thought, although after you published that other article you wanted to re-think it. I guess we'll never know. But I think Assad is happiest beside his wife's hospital bed...its so sad how sick she is
If we look at the entire Syrian territory, we encounter several problems.
Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians, Jews and what is currently called HTS. There are various factions among the Kurds. The same goes for the HTS, which consists of murderers, thieves, smugglers, drug dealers and terrorists. I think the HTS will fragment and fight for power among themselves. I don't think Turkey can prevent that. The other religious communities are most at risk.
The irrigation project has been destroyed, the other region owns the breadbasket, another region owns Syria's oil and gas resources. Western sanctions have made the Syrian economy non-existent. No matter which regime rules in Damascus, Syria is not a viable entity.
What can Turkey do with Syrian territories? Turkey has become bigger on the map. But what benefit can Turkey derive from this? I don't see that yet. The same applies to Israel.
How much longer can the US military stay in the region?
Iran has suffered a strategic defeat? Perhaps. I don't know. But on the other hand, Iran benefits economically from doing business with the BRICS and the global South. What economic benefit has Iran had in West Asia? None. On the contrary, West Asia claimed resources. Can Israel defeat Iran in a war? No, Iran has military technologies to repel any attack and destroy Israel's production sites, energy supply, logistics centers with long-range weapons. How can the USA help Israel? With its useless aircraft carriers and its F-35 scrap? Their military bases are on a platter. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the West will also be plunged into economic chaos. Etc.
Medvedev in Beijing, Putin in Azerbaijan, Beloussov in North Korea and Shoigu in Iran. I don't know what is being planned. But I do see an elephant.
If NATO does not massively invade Ukraine and openly fight against Russia, then Russia will create facts there. If NATO enters into open warfare against Russia, then this war will not only devastate Europe, but will relatively quickly lead to Russia being forced to use its strategic weapons against targets in the USA. This is being said very openly in Moscow.
Yes, Syria at present is a vast potpourri of factions—a “hornet’s nest” as Marat Khairullen described it. Iran suffered at most a tactical setback, not a defeat. I do note that Aliyev wasn’t asked about Syria in the interview, which was surprising. The Syrian sands will continue to shift daily until they stop whenever that is.
I agree, the west's ponzi, declining industrial capacity, and artisanal weapons systems are a weak hand, so it could be now or never. GAO reports make interesting reading on US readiness, so it's up to its euro proxies to do the job.
I don't like this one bit... Not for the reason you may think when looking at the blue half moon map... but because it's a make believe, a US-Deepstate illusion, a fatamorgana... being presented as if this is what is in store... for us all here on our little planet Earth... However in the real world... where Russia and China are as well as the global majority who benefit from the stand these 2 countries have and are taking, which is, the 500 years of colonialism are coming to an end... no matter how many wet dream the West have. Amen.
The Arch map is an excellent depiction of the geopolitical goals of British then American Imperial Policy since it was envisioned by Mahan then Mackinder almost 150 years ago. We may not like it, but it’s representative of past and ongoing policy and is in no way an “illusion.” The goal of the Russia, China and the members of the institutions they’ve formed is to defeat the Arch and negate the remnants of the Maritime Great Powers. The power projection forces can now be easily defeated, but the other means used remain to be combatted and expunged like those being employed in Armenia and attempted again in Georgia.
Thank you Karl, interesting essay. What I do wonder after reading this piece is how, given the ease with which Syria was overrun and how the U.S. is attempting to restore its influence by fostering instability in certain regions (seemingly succeeding in Europe, the Middle East, and now with Russia preoccupied by the war and China appearing to stand on the sidelines), how effective BRICS and the SCO will truly be in challenging the hegemony of the U.S. and NATO. Can BRICS overcome the divisions within Africa and India? I also think that Israel’s role in this broader strategy might be larger than it appears, especially given its influence in shaping Middle Eastern dynamics and aligning with U.S. interests.
The Zionists have long been the Empire's West Asian proxy, a status unlikely to change anytime soon. In Asia, the ASEAN has gone a long way to evening out relations. The only real problem is the Philippines, while Taiwan will remain China's regardless. IMO, there's an increasing awareness by South Asians that they're being played and that the SCO is helping that realization. That same realization is also dawning on more African nations thanks to the increased dialog with China and Russia and the decades of broken promises by the West. Yes, there're several severe problems remaining from imperialism and maldistribution of resources that are very thorny. But can be resolved. In both regions, all Western influence must be expunged except for the very few agencies that are genuine NGOs through the adoption of foreign agent laws and limits on western embassy staffing. The focus must be development of and in the national interest.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/18547
Africa is now the zone of heightened interest. The U.S. Administration sees the region as an unlimited natural reservoir of dangerous infections' agents and a test ground for experimental medications.
Installing Huawei's very effective comms infrastructure will be a statement of sovereignty. Expunging western platforms from the "internet" is crucial in preventing the information space being overrun by western psyops, etc. Thailand has lagged, a fact lamented by Brian Berletic. Singapore sits between Malaysia and Indonesia, two significant and largely Muslim countries, otherwise I'm skeptical of their sitting on two chairs approach.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia have new governments. Russia and China have long interacted with both nations. All seek collective Harmony, the Empire doesn’t. The next page will soon be turned.
thanks karl.. crookes essay is very good and informative..
I think "the west" aka US/UK/Brussels must believe they have a card to play in domestic Russian politics; on the simple end: get rid of Putin. More complex: get rid of Putin and "decolonize" (balkanize) the RF along with the usual Shock Doctrine/Disaster Capitalism or just plain neoliberal "restructuring" and austerity in the component nations of the newly broken up "heartland." Otherwise, they seem to be wasting their time and moving all of us closer to nuclear war. And these monsters and vampires in the west have no qualms about taking it right up to the razor's edge - the brink - just to see if their bluff is called and the rest of us suffer for it. Business as usual.
NATO proxies within Russia are now terrorists not politicians. Unless he does something way out of character and against Russia’s interests which are extremely doubtful, Putin will finish is term in 2030 and retire.
Agree with that. For the most part. But if things ever start getting dicey for Putin and his coalition, there are politicians who can and will be bought off. Things move slowly until they move quickly. As we saw with Assad. And it will probably take the terrorists you mentioned to kick off any politically fraught time in RF for him.
IMO, some response after the Kazan attacks must be coming. Of Russia’s political parties, all are in Putin’s camp, while there’re still a few Europhiles. As usual, the Direct Line revealed Russia has plenty of problems to solve, but that was well known beforehand.
Thank you very much This is excellent and was very informative
Thanks for the article and the links, which connect some dots. It's still early days yet I think...
Not sure I understood the following sentence unless the word in [] should have been there. Although I do suspect that even assuming the US and the Occupation entity knew of the attack the speed of the advance was the surprise. If I have misunderstood - my apologies.
"Since the SAA stood down, the Zionists and Americans immediately began bombing all known arms depots and other military targets so HTS would [not] gain them and proves that they didn’t have any foreknowledge."
I liked this bit of Mr Bhadrakumar's article:
"Putin openly acknowledged that Russia keeps contacts with the HTS and their conversation will have a bearing on the fate of the bases in Latakia. Russia is offering that the international community may use the bases to handle humanitarian assistance to Syria."
The EU seems to have insisted on the removal of Russian bases from Syria before they are prepared to lift any sanctions. Could this be another instance of Mr Putin 'trolling' EU imbeciles?
Yes, my omission was made in haste; your correction is correct.
"The Zionists had no clue and were so badly beaten by Hezbollah they sued for a ceasefire."
Wait... so, do you think that it was just a mere coincidence that the terrorist groups started their attack against Assad's Syria on the same day the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah???
That’s a good question but I’ve given it very little thought. How much was coincidence and how much was coordinated will likely remain unknown for a bit of time. Since I count the Zionists as one of the terrorist groups, then IMO there was no coincidence it changed fronts since the ceasefire allowed for that. IMO, there’s lots happening backstage that’s critical to what we see on the frontstage. The Zionists think they’ve won a victory whereas I see them having won nothing. I await Iran’s next move, although it’s possible I’ll need to wait quite awhile.
They have won nothing? They have occupied Mount Hermon, a key strategic point overlooking part of Lebanon and Syria, and they have advanced up to a few kilometres away from Damascus! If they want, they can now enter Lebanon from the border between the latter and Syria and advance straight to Beirut, bypassing Hezbollah's strongholds in southern Lebanon.
Back to the original question, I do not believe it is a coincidence. Instead, I believe it was a well-coordinated move. In fact, it is known that Israel treated wounded Syrian terrorists in the past: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Israel-treating-al-Qaida-fighters-wounded-in-Syria-civil-war-393862
Do you think that they were helping the "rebels" for piety? Of course not!
Do you now believe that they knew nothing of what was simmering in Syria?
What happened in Syria must have been arranged a while ago by the Zionists in Israel and the Outlaw US Empire, together with Turkey.
I know of the past aid and support given to terrorists by the Zionist terrorists. By "not winning" I meant they didn't have to defeat anyone to make their recent gains. On your last sentence, yes I have a hard time disavowing my initial reaction and writing in response to the crisis. Perhaps I'm trying to find whatever light that can be found within all the darkness. I suppose the better policy would have seen all the terrorists killed instead of being shipped to Idlib so they could fight again. But at the time, that policy was seen as brilliant since it avoided more civilian deaths and urban destruction.
Thanks for this Karl. Any Thank You for your valuable input here throughout the year.
I checked out the maps of West Asia, main focus on Ottoman, in 1914 and 1923 recently. Now I look at the map you provide above. The Kurds, and not only in Syria, were screwed by the colonial British/French post WWI - 30million Kurds and no State. Now a proxy/ally of US in Syria - and to be screwed again.
On the Big Picture - agree, conflict to continue. We fight on - 'mode of being' is at stake.
I have some very important questions about WW1’s ending arrangements that are bugging me, but I haven’t had the time to get the answers. Not that they’ll alter today’s situation.
IANAH (historian), but as a ‘follow the money’ guy who enjoys playing “connect-a-dot” I can’t help but note that the U. S. joined WWI halfway through in 1918 with CONSIDERABLE commitment of Blood and Treasure - and that treasure was made possible with creation of the Federal Reserve Bank (in 1912 IIRC). Who are the main winners of armed conflict? The ‘Central’ banks that create and lend the money for the purchase of war materiel and to feed, clothe, train and PAY (and, sadly, bury) soldiers to prosecute said conflict. So, besides the banks, cui bono? Those answers will hopefully be gleaned right here at the Gym!!
Seasons Greetings to all, best wishes for the New Year, and please, TRY to be of Good Cheer!! And remember……..
“War is Over. IF you want it.”
Wilson promised peace but entered the war to ensure the banker’s loans would be repaid. So, yes, follow what was done by the ancien regime to reverse its political standing in Europe beginning in the late 1870s as the reformist political-economists sought to end their ability to collect rents. That’s the key marker that few historians examine but rules the roost. And of course, communism also promised to end their rent seeking, which is why a war was waged on it and still is.
Escobar talked some days ago about the body language of Lavrov in Doha, that he never has seen Lavrov so angry. Escobar said also that Lavrov seemed to be surprised there, that Saturday - and Escobar seemed to indicate that there was a deal above the level of foreign ministries. Does that mean, in clear text, that Putin would have not informed Lavrov about the deal with Erdogan? That would be highly unusual, and Lavrov may ask for demission. He wanted to step down some time ago already.
That remains a mystery, Lavrov retains his position. IMO his anger was directed at Al-Jazeera and the backstabbing done by Qatar. I hope the incident gets explained in his memoirs if he decides to write them or by his biographer.
"One big question: Will Iran launch its retaliation strike on the Zionists prior to 20 January as a kick in the groin to Blinken and Sullivan while also sending a very clear message to Trump that Iran is very capable of both defending itself and demolishing whatever it choses in the region?"
My answer is No. I think they have been permanently reigned in. I expect at some point regime change is in the winds there - from external and internal forces. I'm doubting the security agreement with Russia will be signed in Jan as expected. No more Iranian missiles or arms for the Houthis, Hamas or Hezbollah not even the militias in Iraq maybe.
Israel won, Russia has been neutered, the US is in control of key players Turkey Saudis Gulf states, and Iran does not have a real friend left in the world now.
China is reevaluating its options in regards the efficacy of 'allies' I believe. Its silence is telling.
quote with typo?
"Since the SAA stood down, the Zionists and Americans immediately began bombing all known arms depots and other military targets so HTS would 'NOT' (?) gain them and proves that they didn’t have any foreknowledge."
I am far from convinced this amounts to 'proof.' I am very skeptical about everyone's conclusions on what happened and why, who knew what and when. I am reserving judgment, and probably for a very long time. Far too much lying going on by all these very untrustworthy sides here - Russia Iran included. Therefore, no one attempting an arm's length analysis has a real handle on the facts let alone what it might actually mean. I've heard Putin's commentary and while is sounds plausible, I am not willing to buy it either any more than believing Erdogan, HTS the US or Israel.
But thanks for the summary, you gave it a fair shake.
A pity that such an interesting Great Game be inhabited.
So you think Putin had no idea that Assad was on his way out. I thought Putin was probably encouraging Syria to establish ties with the Gulf States. Playing the slow game like he ( Putin ) does with Erdogan. Also I think Asma Assad's condition with Leukemia had alot to do with Assad leaving
Whatever gave you that idea? Putin and Assad met on 28 November and told him what was in the cards.
Well, Assad has been trying to gain a foothold in the Arab League for over a year. And BRICS is also courting the Arab Gulf States, I thought it might have been a plan encouraged by Putin....not leaving but turning away from Iran. I guess though, that Assad really wanted to do business not war and the Americans wanted Syria. He just couldn't - but why would he have turned down the help from Iran I wonder. I don't think Assad is evil. He's a family guy and his wife is very sick. I just don't really get why he betrayed his army. Maybe his army betrayed him, as that letter of explanation he wrote said he was surprised too, when they fell apart without a fight in Aleppo
See this, https://www.indianpunchline.com/putin-weighs-in-on-the-syrian-situation/
Hi Karl - I read it now. Yeah - that's what I thought although I didn't think Iran was in on it. But maybe they were. It was planned because Assad was at his wits end and no money and no way to even pay his army properly. But Dr Marandi doesn't think Iran was in on a quiet exit for Assad. Even when Russia didn' eliminate the Idlib enclave I wondered if it was a plan...thinking back on that. But again, if the US said that there was no way they would allow themselves or the terrorist enclave in Idlib to be eliminated, Russia might have backed down.
It wasn’t Russia’s responsibility to rid Idlib of Terrorists. That was Turkey’s job. But the Turks didn’t want to challenge the Empire.
but by not getting rid of the terrorists in Idlib - Syria today is no more. And Russia has terrorists for neighbours. Which is why they went after the terrorists in the first place. It doesn't make any sense, unless they felt they couldn't deal with war against the US. Which is why Putin left Donbass for so long, although he says he regrets it now. After the fact.
thanks so much - will read it. Also....why did Putin leave that enclave of terrorists and also the American presence. in the oil field and wheat field regions...though I have heard and believe it - that the US told Assad and Putin that those things STAY WHERE THEY ARE or US would start bombing the shit out of Syria and fighting the Russians.
Again, it’s hard to lay blame. I did in my initial reaction, the failure to eliminate the Idlib terrorist enclave. Russia removing the Outlaw US Empire troops would have meant war. We can second-guess all we want, but since we weren’t directly involved in the policy process, there isn’t much we can say. Recall that Covid entered the game on the heels of getting the last batch of terrorists shipped to Idlib.
yes. Seems crazy that Russia would plan this 4 years in advance. Your first take on it was excellent I thought, although after you published that other article you wanted to re-think it. I guess we'll never know. But I think Assad is happiest beside his wife's hospital bed...its so sad how sick she is