Palestine Update

I initially reported this at MoA but it needs to be sent out to readers here too.

The follow-up by Lavrov today was to meet with the OIC, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, at the UN to gain support for the #1 point he made yesterday--that Palestinians must speak with one political voice so negotiations can begin with them included in the united front presented by the RoW. Here are the two main paragraphs from the above linked media note:

The meeting confirmed the closeness of Russia's and the Muslim world's approaches to pressing issues on the Middle East agenda, including the conflict in the Gaza Strip. They emphasised the urgency of a ceasefire between Israelis and Palestinians and the transfer of the situation to a political and diplomatic track on the basis of the decisions of the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, the Arab Peace Initiative and the Madrid principles, including the two-state solution. It envisages the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian State within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, coexisting in peace and security with Israel.

In light of the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territories and the high risks of the entire Middle East plunging into a major war, Sergey Lavrov emphasised the importance of consolidating the approaches of external players to the Palestinian-Israeli problem, which will make it possible to stabilise the situation on the ground and create prerequisites for launching the negotiation process. The key task in this context remains to ensure Palestinian national unity on the political platform of the Palestine Liberation Organisation and to prevent the administrative and geographical fragmentation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The need for the formation of an effective collective mediation mechanism with the leading role of the states of the Middle East was noted. [My Emphasis]

However, Hamas has thrown a wrench into that approach as RT reports: "Hamas leader rules out two-state solution: Khaled Mashaal has insisted that Palestinians won’t recognize Israel and that their nation will extend “from the river to the sea”":

Senior Hamas official Khaled Mashaal has rejected calls for the negotiation of a two-state peace deal with Israel to end the war in Gaza, proclaiming that the Palestinian people will never legitimize the “Zionist entity” in West Jerusalem by accepting its existence.

”We have nothing to do with the two-state solution,” Mashaal said in an interview posted on Tuesday by Kuwaiti podcaster Ammar Taqi. “We reject this notion because it means you would get a promise for a state, yet you are required to recognize the legitimacy of the other state, which is the Zionist entity. This is unacceptable.”

The Middle East Media Research Institute provided an English translation of the interview [and RT actually linked to it!!], in which Mashaal argued that the Hamas attacks on October 7, which triggered the latest war in Gaza, have revitalized the Palestinian dream of wiping out Israel. He insisted that the independent Palestinian nation must extend from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea and from the Lebanese border to the Gulf of Aqaba.

”I believe that October 7 has enhanced this conviction, has narrowed the disagreements, and has turned the idea of liberating Palestine from the river to the sea into a realistic idea that has already begun,” Mashaal said. “It is not something to be [merely] expected or hoped for. It is part of the plan, part of the agenda, and we are standing on its threshold, Allah willing.”

This is particularly important when we revisit what the Russian PR said:

"The key task in this context remains to ensure Palestinian national unity on the political platform of the Palestine Liberation Organisation and to prevent the administrative and geographical fragmentation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank." [My Emphasis]

That means the discredited PA. Mashal says this in the interview's opening paragraph:

“In other words, there was no security coordination, no Palestinian Authority to persecute us…” [My Emphasis]

Mashal speaks of "The Palestinian consensus - or almost a consensus" with Hamas, not the PA. I recall polling done in the West Bank just before the New Year that showed almost zero support for the PA. The problem now is for Hamas to convince the wider world that supports the Palestinians that the PA is dead, and its vision is the only possible negotiating pathway. Of course, the bigger problem is there's no International Law support for the Hamas vision, which is why the Two-State Solution continues to be seen as the starting point for negotiations.

In order for Hamas to attain its vision, it will need to lose so Hezbollah and Iraq Hezbollah can step into the fray as that's what they vowed to do if Hamas loses. Hamas solo hasn't the force to attain its vision militarily. Much greater force will be needed to move the Zionists and force them to negotiate.

And so the situation becomes more convoluted. Does Hamas Abroad, Mashal’s organization, share the same vision as Hamas within Palestine is my question. I agree that Palestine ought to be an integral geographical unit from Gaza to West Bank, with the Zionists allowed to settle in what remains. But both sides will need to be demilitarized and a very long-term peacekeeping arrangement—20-50 years or more—will need to be implemented as there’s much for Palestinians to avenge and the Zionists will remain genocidal since they know no other path. Of course, that’s a Two State Solution; it’s just that it fits neither side’s vision.

Adding with this edit are the last several quotes made by Mashal so he’s not misrepresented:

"In order to establish a common ground, and a joint Palestinian plan with the other Palestinian with the other Palestinian forces, and in line with the other Arab position. Hamas agreed to a completely independent [Palestinian] state, with the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as its capital, with the right of Return included – without recognizing the legitimacy of the Zionist entity.

"This position was meant to facilitate Palestinian and Arab agreement at this stage, but without relinquishing any of our rights or any part of our land, and without recognizing Israel. Our vision remains unchanged.

"I believe that October 7 has enhanced this conviction, has narrowed the disagreements, and has turned the idea of liberating Palestine from the River to the Sea into a realistic idea that has already begun. It is not something [merely] to be expected or hoped for. It is part of the plan, part of the agenda, and we are standing on its threshold, Allah willing."

All the above is from the linked interview.

*
*
*
Like what you’ve been reading at Karlof1’s Substack? Then please consider subscribing and choosing to make a monthly/yearly pledge to enable my efforts in this challenging realm. Thank You!