# ...Trenin falls into the trap of believing a nuclear war can be limited—that’s the same argument Karaganov tried to advance early in 2024."
Fully agree. The notion of 'limited' is simply insane. And Oresknik is in mass production - assume scientists are working on extending both its range and delivery systems (submarines?)
# In many respects Trenin is correct that WWIII has been ongoing for quite some time - also my interpretation now for a good while - its nature has simply morphed from what people associate with WWI & WWII. A more nuanced Order from VVP compared to Stalin's Order 2xx on Stalingrad has been presented
# In some respects Trenin is more of an intellectual Pit-Bull then Medvedev - but bulls or pit-bulls in .. er .. 'China shops' is not what is required - intellect, force and foreplanning is all.
# Back to Iran - I listened to Crooke - both RF and China simply must reinforce its defence - it is core to keeping the hegemon at bay ...
# As a European I'm close to despair for quite some time - but despair not an option.
Yes, it's nature did morph, as did imperialism that was adopted by the US when it took over from the British empire, and used its transnational corporations to reach into every corner of the planet. Michael Hudson's "Superimperialism" shows how-to. Merz said out loud what every western leader secretly thinks; using proxies to do the dirty work of eliminating opposition. Western populations have been largely insulated from the violence; Iran (1953), Indonesia (1965), Chile (1973), and the long running events of Vietnam; this isn't a complete list. And now the phase of the internet and western big tech's tentacles across the globe.
Yes, your comments seem much closer to reality than Trenin's portrayal.
Elite opinion in the west does seem caught up in a sort of fever dream but I'm not convinced that hallucinogenic state is shared by its peoples.
Pursuing his course would dramatically increase the odds of a descent into true catastrophe. The dissident and wavering nations in the west can only increase in number if Russia and its fellow "combatants" continue acting in a civilised manner while offering a constructive, cooperative vision of how the world could, and should, be.
Should Iran close down Hormuz and the Qatari LNG and Gulf oil be inaccessible then the lights go out in Europe, crash, bang. The main protagonist, the UK suffered another power cut yesterday in a major city; it's occurring with regular frequency here and across Europe. That's how fragile matters really are and the current government's rhetoric is just for public consumption, conditioning us saps for more cuts to Public Expenditure. They're reduced to raiding pensions and cutting social services, just to pay the interest on debt which, national and external, is hovering around 450% of GDP. This UK Labour Government after only a year and being out of power for a decade and a half won't last another 12 months. Locally, in the heartlands it's councillors are resigning/defecting monthly by the bus load.
WE IS DONE I'M AFRAID OLD CHAP, GET THE VIOLINS OUT!
Talk of building any army, a weapons arsenal is absolutely nonsensical when we're facing mounting factory closures, in fact, the Government is fighting tooth and nail to keep our last steel making plant, Chinese owned, open.
We're being evicted from our former plantations and mineral deposits in Africa.
WE DO NOT CONTROL THE NUCLEAR CODES, AMERICA DOES.
The final nail in our coffin is Trump's Tariffs, admittedly, he hasn't crucified us with the 30% he has on the rest of Europe, maybe due to his fondness of his golf-courses built here (LOL); not the actions of a man intent on assisting Europe in building up a pre WAR ARSENAL.
The City of London, where the power seat of the love of money is central, must be deprived of their energy source to disrupt the bastards. Not complete destruction, because they will spread their tenacles elsewhere like the US did after 9/11, to Miami, New Jersey and other parts.
It's energy they are after, and it cannot be harnessed!
The West is not as coherent, in macro sense, i.e. in states to states sense, but also in "micro" sense, ie there are internal social unrests in each of the Western nations. With continuing decline in living standards, with the continued deterioration of justice system, people are getting dissatisfied and will eventually revolt, no matter what the suppression, intimidation, by the surveillance apparatus. Silent disobedience, sabotaging can become a new form of revolting, not marching on the street.
The point Trenin makes for Russia, about strengthening the justice system, is very important, and the West is no more the shining light on that one. Russia has it's work cut out there, especially regarding the influence of the different ethnic mafias. (Especially the Israeli mafia).
WWIII began smoldering in Feb 2014 and burst into flames in 2015 when Russia sent troops to Syria. Russian policy since then has been to develop the means to rebuff the West's provocations. They seem to have grown tired of taking blows and are in the process of redirecting to a more aggressive posture. The attack on the strategic bombers followed by the Iran sneak attack seems to have been the catalyst. Lots of discussions going on with China. Elbridge Colby's hard work will no doubt have the Chinese readying for their own Ukraine.
Good article. Colby's China focus puts him at odds with multiple political groups tho. In a 3-way contest betw Israel/Iran-hawks, Russia-hawks, and China-hawks, people like Colby may end up taking the blame for what was more to do with the Israel wing not wanting Ukraine to take resources that would be needed for their favored US vs Iran scenario. In addition, stirring up the sh#t in Ukraine, or even in Iran, may be dumb as anything and just as immoral. But Iran and Ukraine conflicts are, at least in theory, not fatal for the US world position and esp elite wealth. Picking a fight with China on the other hand is directly harmful to both. Our system often diverts policy disagreements of this type by half-assing various options and letting everyone involved "fail upward"...
'And the West has zero “technological superiority.” '
Not true Karl. You have forgotten Snowden's revelations or Vault 7. Then there is the Cambridge Analytica methodology. These are all from the distant past. Dinosaurs compared with the current crop of ubiquitous surveillance and manipulation.
The biggest danger for the Russians is underestimating their adversary. I doubt they'd be that stupid.
trenin comes across like a russian version of a neo con, advocating for the russian war industry, much like his western counterparts do in the west.. the doom and gloom are already on the horizon with the barbarians at the gate...
there is something to be said for never underestimating your enemy... maybe that is what this largely amounts to.. i am not sure, but this is all in answer to your questions at the end.. thanks karl!
Quick correction: words on the header picture of article mentioned here actually translates like 'Homeland that we defend', not 'Homeland that we create'. So it's not exactly just an appeal to the Russian intelligencia. It's something much more inclusive / universal.
Think your essentially on the bullseye about Tenin speaking to a Russian audience without realizing the West is fragmenting socially finding its leadership appalling, destructive of its prosperity .
WW111 is a continuation of the Cold War without a doubt.
The escalation for War never lets up by the West no matter who is elected .
Death is the only reality conceived and so they will die by their own hand as well
Just thought to mention that there's an Nima interview with Col (ret) Larry Wilkerson who refers to John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace". He concludes we're in WWIII, and that the ideas outlined by Keynes are coming to pass. Both WW1 and WW2 were initiated by the UK and France to thwart the growth and power of Germany, which resulted in them becoming indebted to the US, and the second war finished off their empires, and now the US if following in their footsteps. It's not an unreasonable conclusion given how elites have their think tanks setting deadlines, and that China is/has overtaken the US, so it's now or never. He also believes it will go nuclear, as this is a US predisposition, and given the scale of conventional defeat would lead to the existential choice.
Yes, it's hard to work out who's in charge, so many cooks, and when you have a President that is either a Biden or Trump it's real life doctor strangelove. A horse might as well be President.
Thank you Karl for publishing Trenin's essay in detail and your critical analysis. As a former left-wing ideologue (chastened and hopefully wizened by defeats, betrayals and treachery) I have become very suspicious and wary of all ultra-ideologies whether they be leftist, rightist, nationalist, etc. Trenin comes across as a uber-nationalist who suddenly discovered the light after his history of anti-communism and reconciliation with western ideologies. All ultras have to exaggerate the threat and demand unrealistic goals. You are spot on that the West is far more divided than is apparent, weakened by globalism and deindustrialization yet hellbent on retaining global supremacy. A united resistance by the multi-polar world, led by Russia and China, taking advantage the weaknesses of the western elites, limiting their plans for bloodshed and chaos, should lead to victory. Perseverance will overcome hysteria.
# ...Trenin falls into the trap of believing a nuclear war can be limited—that’s the same argument Karaganov tried to advance early in 2024."
Fully agree. The notion of 'limited' is simply insane. And Oresknik is in mass production - assume scientists are working on extending both its range and delivery systems (submarines?)
# In many respects Trenin is correct that WWIII has been ongoing for quite some time - also my interpretation now for a good while - its nature has simply morphed from what people associate with WWI & WWII. A more nuanced Order from VVP compared to Stalin's Order 2xx on Stalingrad has been presented
# In some respects Trenin is more of an intellectual Pit-Bull then Medvedev - but bulls or pit-bulls in .. er .. 'China shops' is not what is required - intellect, force and foreplanning is all.
# Back to Iran - I listened to Crooke - both RF and China simply must reinforce its defence - it is core to keeping the hegemon at bay ...
# As a European I'm close to despair for quite some time - but despair not an option.
# Thanks for this Karl.
Yes, it's nature did morph, as did imperialism that was adopted by the US when it took over from the British empire, and used its transnational corporations to reach into every corner of the planet. Michael Hudson's "Superimperialism" shows how-to. Merz said out loud what every western leader secretly thinks; using proxies to do the dirty work of eliminating opposition. Western populations have been largely insulated from the violence; Iran (1953), Indonesia (1965), Chile (1973), and the long running events of Vietnam; this isn't a complete list. And now the phase of the internet and western big tech's tentacles across the globe.
Yes, your comments seem much closer to reality than Trenin's portrayal.
Elite opinion in the west does seem caught up in a sort of fever dream but I'm not convinced that hallucinogenic state is shared by its peoples.
Pursuing his course would dramatically increase the odds of a descent into true catastrophe. The dissident and wavering nations in the west can only increase in number if Russia and its fellow "combatants" continue acting in a civilised manner while offering a constructive, cooperative vision of how the world could, and should, be.
Should Iran close down Hormuz and the Qatari LNG and Gulf oil be inaccessible then the lights go out in Europe, crash, bang. The main protagonist, the UK suffered another power cut yesterday in a major city; it's occurring with regular frequency here and across Europe. That's how fragile matters really are and the current government's rhetoric is just for public consumption, conditioning us saps for more cuts to Public Expenditure. They're reduced to raiding pensions and cutting social services, just to pay the interest on debt which, national and external, is hovering around 450% of GDP. This UK Labour Government after only a year and being out of power for a decade and a half won't last another 12 months. Locally, in the heartlands it's councillors are resigning/defecting monthly by the bus load.
WE IS DONE I'M AFRAID OLD CHAP, GET THE VIOLINS OUT!
Talk of building any army, a weapons arsenal is absolutely nonsensical when we're facing mounting factory closures, in fact, the Government is fighting tooth and nail to keep our last steel making plant, Chinese owned, open.
We're being evicted from our former plantations and mineral deposits in Africa.
WE DO NOT CONTROL THE NUCLEAR CODES, AMERICA DOES.
The final nail in our coffin is Trump's Tariffs, admittedly, he hasn't crucified us with the 30% he has on the rest of Europe, maybe due to his fondness of his golf-courses built here (LOL); not the actions of a man intent on assisting Europe in building up a pre WAR ARSENAL.
The City of London, where the power seat of the love of money is central, must be deprived of their energy source to disrupt the bastards. Not complete destruction, because they will spread their tenacles elsewhere like the US did after 9/11, to Miami, New Jersey and other parts.
It's energy they are after, and it cannot be harnessed!
Whoever controls energy controls the world.
Karl, I like your analysis of Trenin.
The West is not as coherent, in macro sense, i.e. in states to states sense, but also in "micro" sense, ie there are internal social unrests in each of the Western nations. With continuing decline in living standards, with the continued deterioration of justice system, people are getting dissatisfied and will eventually revolt, no matter what the suppression, intimidation, by the surveillance apparatus. Silent disobedience, sabotaging can become a new form of revolting, not marching on the street.
The point Trenin makes for Russia, about strengthening the justice system, is very important, and the West is no more the shining light on that one. Russia has it's work cut out there, especially regarding the influence of the different ethnic mafias. (Especially the Israeli mafia).
WWIII began smoldering in Feb 2014 and burst into flames in 2015 when Russia sent troops to Syria. Russian policy since then has been to develop the means to rebuff the West's provocations. They seem to have grown tired of taking blows and are in the process of redirecting to a more aggressive posture. The attack on the strategic bombers followed by the Iran sneak attack seems to have been the catalyst. Lots of discussions going on with China. Elbridge Colby's hard work will no doubt have the Chinese readying for their own Ukraine.
Guancha had a good article about Colby. It’s in Chinese, https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2025_07_13_782808.shtml
Good article. Colby's China focus puts him at odds with multiple political groups tho. In a 3-way contest betw Israel/Iran-hawks, Russia-hawks, and China-hawks, people like Colby may end up taking the blame for what was more to do with the Israel wing not wanting Ukraine to take resources that would be needed for their favored US vs Iran scenario. In addition, stirring up the sh#t in Ukraine, or even in Iran, may be dumb as anything and just as immoral. But Iran and Ukraine conflicts are, at least in theory, not fatal for the US world position and esp elite wealth. Picking a fight with China on the other hand is directly harmful to both. Our system often diverts policy disagreements of this type by half-assing various options and letting everyone involved "fail upward"...
'And the West has zero “technological superiority.” '
Not true Karl. You have forgotten Snowden's revelations or Vault 7. Then there is the Cambridge Analytica methodology. These are all from the distant past. Dinosaurs compared with the current crop of ubiquitous surveillance and manipulation.
The biggest danger for the Russians is underestimating their adversary. I doubt they'd be that stupid.
I should have been more specific; the tech I’m thinking of is military.
Alastair Crooke’s talk at Judge Napolitano was really scary!
Ah, I’ll give it a listen in that case. A. Crooke has been on point since the beginning of this conflict.
trenin comes across like a russian version of a neo con, advocating for the russian war industry, much like his western counterparts do in the west.. the doom and gloom are already on the horizon with the barbarians at the gate...
there is something to be said for never underestimating your enemy... maybe that is what this largely amounts to.. i am not sure, but this is all in answer to your questions at the end.. thanks karl!
A highly relevant publication at the Unz Review: "Libertarians’ Jewish Dilemma Fuels Genocide and Nuclear War?" by MARCO DE WIT
Quick correction: words on the header picture of article mentioned here actually translates like 'Homeland that we defend', not 'Homeland that we create'. So it's not exactly just an appeal to the Russian intelligencia. It's something much more inclusive / universal.
fwiw, 'rodina kotoruyu my zashyshayem' = the homeland that we defend
I’m a fan of Lynn Margulis as well .
The biography of her written by her son Dorian is excellent but hard to find.
Think your essentially on the bullseye about Tenin speaking to a Russian audience without realizing the West is fragmenting socially finding its leadership appalling, destructive of its prosperity .
WW111 is a continuation of the Cold War without a doubt.
The escalation for War never lets up by the West no matter who is elected .
Death is the only reality conceived and so they will die by their own hand as well
Just thought to mention that there's an Nima interview with Col (ret) Larry Wilkerson who refers to John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace". He concludes we're in WWIII, and that the ideas outlined by Keynes are coming to pass. Both WW1 and WW2 were initiated by the UK and France to thwart the growth and power of Germany, which resulted in them becoming indebted to the US, and the second war finished off their empires, and now the US if following in their footsteps. It's not an unreasonable conclusion given how elites have their think tanks setting deadlines, and that China is/has overtaken the US, so it's now or never. He also believes it will go nuclear, as this is a US predisposition, and given the scale of conventional defeat would lead to the existential choice.
In so many ways the Empire has already lost and all by its own hand. IMO, the billionaires don’t have what it takes to commit suicide.
Yes, it's hard to work out who's in charge, so many cooks, and when you have a President that is either a Biden or Trump it's real life doctor strangelove. A horse might as well be President.
Yes, Mr. Ed had good scriptwriters as did Francis the mule.
Excellent article and in particular your comments
Thank you Karl for publishing Trenin's essay in detail and your critical analysis. As a former left-wing ideologue (chastened and hopefully wizened by defeats, betrayals and treachery) I have become very suspicious and wary of all ultra-ideologies whether they be leftist, rightist, nationalist, etc. Trenin comes across as a uber-nationalist who suddenly discovered the light after his history of anti-communism and reconciliation with western ideologies. All ultras have to exaggerate the threat and demand unrealistic goals. You are spot on that the West is far more divided than is apparent, weakened by globalism and deindustrialization yet hellbent on retaining global supremacy. A united resistance by the multi-polar world, led by Russia and China, taking advantage the weaknesses of the western elites, limiting their plans for bloodshed and chaos, should lead to victory. Perseverance will overcome hysteria.
Yes, a World War has not only started, it has been ongoing for the past several years.
The French scholar Emmanuel Todd has also made the same assertion with his book “The Third World War Has Started." Todd's book was published in 2022.
‘World War 3 has already started’ between US and Russia/China, argues French scholar
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/01/14/world-war-3-us-russia-china-emmanuel-todd/