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Richard Roskell's avatar

This is a very important statement by Mr. Putin:

"Here I want to emphasize one more aspect. The Oreshnik missile system is not just an effective hypersonic weapon. Due to its striking power, ESPECIALLY IN A MASSIVE, GROUP APPLICATION... [my emphasis] the results of its use against enemy targets will be comparable in effect and power to strategic weapons."

I was greatly surprised when I saw a grainy and distant video of the Oreshnik impacts in Ukraine. I had assumed that a single hypersonic missile was used against the target. However there were at least a dozen strikes in quick succession, and they all fell within the confines of the large industrial concern that was targeted.

This demonstrates a quantum leap in terms of missile technology. It's a single ballistic missile of considerable range releasing a dozen or more hypersonic warheads that strike with precision. That capability puts Russia in a weapons category all by itself. Mr. Putin's praise of the developers is certainly justified on that basis alone. However there could be more to the weapon that Putin has not yet revealed.

Brief background: we know that Russia has tested hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) that were launched from an ICBM platform. Those HGV are said to be manoeuvrable within the atmosphere. We also know that Russia has air launched hypersonic missiles which can also manoeuvre.

The point? It's plausible that the Oreshnik warheads are manoeuvrable and independently targetable. They would have a large radius of combat capable of targeting huge areas, like small-European-country huge. In this instance all the warheads arrived in the same general vicinity. But we can't rule out independent manoeuvring from that fact alone. So I guess it's still unclear if the Oreshnik has this capability, but it wouldn't surprise me at all that it does.

On a different but related point about the Oreshnik, Mr. Putin made a point about which there is no doubt at all: it is a new *strategic* weapon. Moreover it's not a chemical, biological or nuclear weapon at all, so it doesn't run afoul of any arms conventions. Simply put, in this configuration it's a hypersonic cluster weapon. The effect of many hypersonic missiles impacting in the same area would be devastating - like a tactical nuke.

Russia is the only country to have demonstrated this capability. That's a global level strategic advantage, and such things do not come along every day.

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richardstevenhack's avatar

I posted the following three Notes today, which, taken together, indicate why the Russians have now used this new missile system:

Here we go. Some US officials are considering whether to give Ukraine nuclear weapons… What could go wrong, eh? By the way, all of Ukraine’s weapons it inherited at the end of the Cold War were returned to Russia. So what the US is talking about here is giving Ukraine US nuclear weapons - which would be an immediate existential threat to Russia - which means Russia would immediately destroy Kiev and take over Ukraine - and then threaten nuclear retaliation against the US under Russia’s new nuclear doctrine.

“Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.”

Trump’s Vow to End the War Could Leave Ukraine With Few Options

https://archive.is/4G56L#selection-4567.0-4567.63

And here we go again… Ukraine wants Aegis Ashore “air defense” complexes installed in Ukraine - which is precisely what the Russian SMO is intended to prevent…

"But the Americans have them. Ukraine will turn to the U.S. for the transfer of such weapons," the agency's interlocutor said.

This is the Aegis missile defense system, which is designed to protect against short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

According to open sources, as of 2016, the Aegis missile defense complexes are capable of hitting targets at transatmospheric altitudes.

The Interfax-Ukraine writes, citing its sources, that Ukraine is working on obtaining American THAAD missile defense systems.”

Ukraine turns to US for new air defense systems or Patriot modernization after russian missile strike — media

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1048963-ukraine-turns-to-us-for-new-air-defense-systems-or-patriot-modernization-after-russian-missile

A thought occurs to me...

What if the US and Ukraine talking about 1) Tomahawks, 2) Aegis Ashore, and 3) nuclear weapons - actually means the US using the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to strike Russia with Tomahawks?

That's instant WWIII... This may be why Russia is explicitly designating the Aegis Ashore installations as a priority target - because Russia already knows this is being discussed in Washington.

After all, how much different is it - or seems to the morons in Washington - between giving Ukraine permission to use ATACMS to hit Russia and using the Aegis Ashore system to hit Russia? Obviously it is enormously different - but the morons in Washington don't comprehend that.

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