"Yves here. It is odd how little attention Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s electric grid is getting, given that it is the sort of blow that the West and Ukraine can’t stop or even blunt. The kinetic war is getting vastly more attention, presumably because it is much more familiar and also consuming lots of funds, weapons, and men. Helmer points out below that the Washington Post has quoted Ukraine sources saying at least 86% of Ukraine’s generating capacity has been destroyed.
It is beneficial to Russia that far more attention is going to the traditional battlefield. This means that the officials who have been focusing on the line of contact, still in their minds, will be at a very embarrassing loss when Ukraine starts collapsing. Russia is controlling when that happens, but the 86% figure and the limited alternatives (discussed below) says that things are pretty close to becoming catastrophic. It will be interesting to see if US and NATO leaders try outrage or mumble shuffle, since they do not appear to have prepared the media at all for this outcome.
We have pointed out that Russia controls Ukraine’s future by virtue of Ukraine’s entire system running on old Soviet standards, and Russia, not the US or NATO states, makes that grade of gear. Please do not suggest the West could step in and supply Ukraine’s needs. Private companies will not build factories for what for them would be a big run of special purpose equipment. We are having enough difficulty scaling up to produce more of not terribly high tech items where we have an ongoing need, like 155 mm shells."
yes, i was thinking of how ukraine is juxtapositioned with regard to energy, and it was on my mind after reading john helmers article the past day or so too.. why not go directly to johns website for his article? that is what i do - https://johnhelmer.net/
karl - i was thinking of how the west wants to rebuild ukraine after this war is over, but i am thinking russia might be better positioned to do so... this article highlights this as well.. thanks..
The West rebuild Ukraine?! That's a huge howler. The West will plunder whatever remains of Ukraine. Russia on the other hand, will incorporate its newly liberated lands into its current national projects and future goals. Rosseti will get a big addition to its operating area, for example. What happens with gas transit remains to be seen. Will the Euros see the ousting of misleadership and a change in policy toward Russia come 2026 once the SMO is over? As Crooke explained to the Judge, the political change is to classical liberal parties from the current illiberal ones in power, not a shift to the "Far Right" which is what the Narrative's trying to sell. For a look at New Russia, all one need do is observe what's happening deep behind the line of contact. Russia's economy has plenty of power to rebuild what's been wrecked and share in earning Russia's new wealth.
What a contrast with Ukraine! Their electric generating capacity is down 85% because of Russian attacks.
John Helmer has written several articles on what he calls "The Electric War" on Ukraine.
His recent article was republished at Naked Capitalism.
"Buzzer Beater – Russian General Staff Aims at Ending the Ukraine by Electric War"
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/06/buzzer-beater-russian-general-staff-aims-at-ending-the-ukraine-by-electric-war.html
Yves Smith introduces Helmer's article
"Yves here. It is odd how little attention Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s electric grid is getting, given that it is the sort of blow that the West and Ukraine can’t stop or even blunt. The kinetic war is getting vastly more attention, presumably because it is much more familiar and also consuming lots of funds, weapons, and men. Helmer points out below that the Washington Post has quoted Ukraine sources saying at least 86% of Ukraine’s generating capacity has been destroyed.
It is beneficial to Russia that far more attention is going to the traditional battlefield. This means that the officials who have been focusing on the line of contact, still in their minds, will be at a very embarrassing loss when Ukraine starts collapsing. Russia is controlling when that happens, but the 86% figure and the limited alternatives (discussed below) says that things are pretty close to becoming catastrophic. It will be interesting to see if US and NATO leaders try outrage or mumble shuffle, since they do not appear to have prepared the media at all for this outcome.
We have pointed out that Russia controls Ukraine’s future by virtue of Ukraine’s entire system running on old Soviet standards, and Russia, not the US or NATO states, makes that grade of gear. Please do not suggest the West could step in and supply Ukraine’s needs. Private companies will not build factories for what for them would be a big run of special purpose equipment. We are having enough difficulty scaling up to produce more of not terribly high tech items where we have an ongoing need, like 155 mm shells."
Well, Russia is run by actual humans; Ukraine is run by AI-driven imperialists who are otherwise uneducated. And then there're the Nazis.
yes, i was thinking of how ukraine is juxtapositioned with regard to energy, and it was on my mind after reading john helmers article the past day or so too.. why not go directly to johns website for his article? that is what i do - https://johnhelmer.net/
karl - i was thinking of how the west wants to rebuild ukraine after this war is over, but i am thinking russia might be better positioned to do so... this article highlights this as well.. thanks..
The West rebuild Ukraine?! That's a huge howler. The West will plunder whatever remains of Ukraine. Russia on the other hand, will incorporate its newly liberated lands into its current national projects and future goals. Rosseti will get a big addition to its operating area, for example. What happens with gas transit remains to be seen. Will the Euros see the ousting of misleadership and a change in policy toward Russia come 2026 once the SMO is over? As Crooke explained to the Judge, the political change is to classical liberal parties from the current illiberal ones in power, not a shift to the "Far Right" which is what the Narrative's trying to sell. For a look at New Russia, all one need do is observe what's happening deep behind the line of contact. Russia's economy has plenty of power to rebuild what's been wrecked and share in earning Russia's new wealth.