Security Conference Inspired Ukraine Endgame
A Moon of Alabama discourse
Another new graveyard in Ukraine.
This began with my advertising the speeches given at the Moscow Security Conference I translated, analyzed and published at the Moon of Alabama blog that’s frequented by many readers. It was in response to the thread’s context focusing on Russia’s SMO endgame, was replied to, then further discussed by myself and some others whose contributions will be included. It appears the discourse has ceased, so it’s content will now appear below.
karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 20:26 utc | 50—
At the XI Moscow Security Conference today, both Ukraine, NATO and the Outlaw US Empire were the prime topics for discussion and featured in both Putin's and Lavrov's speeches which I folded into an article here. Many others spoke and more will speak tomorrow as 800 delegates from 76 nations are attending, the Conference's theme being "Realities of Global Security in a Multipolar World."
As for finding a solution to the situation in Ukraine, it's clear to RoW that the first step would be the removal of those who illegally gained power in 2014 and then refused to obey International Law at the behest of the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO toadies who also violated International Law. Since the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO toadies have proven to be 100% untrustworthy, it falls to Russia and RoW to arrive at a just solution. Russia has gone to its archives to produce the evidence of Ukraine's "birth" at the hands of Lenin and his allies which never consulted the rights of those living in what were then Great Russian administrative districts. In fact, only part of those people were able to do so in 1991, but even that vote didn't resolve the political situation for those living in Crimea as the issue wasn't properly resolved under the laws then in force.
The anti-Russian forces have made it very clear their aim is Genocide though their legislation, speech and actions, all of which are condoned/applauded by the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO toadies. And since those forces prop up the Ukrainian junta, the only way to remove it is to defeat it militarily as was announced in February 2022. With the junta removed, Ukraine denazified and peaceful conditions reestablished, it will then be possible to carry out referenda in all administrative units to determine the populace's wishes--to return to Russia or to be reabsorbed by their previous national group--Polish, Hungarian, Romanian, Slovakian, etc. Ukraine as a legal national entity being artificial to begin with will return to its previous non-existence. Whatever debts accrued by Ukraine will be voided as no legal entity will exist to pay them, thus making those who invested in the attempted genocide of Russians lose their capital.
As with all the suggested solutions, this is just a suggestion that assumes what Russia's leadership would desire to have as the outcome based on their many statements, and their attitude towards their friends and enemies. Of course, a solution of the Ukraine issue still doesn't resolve Russia's security concerns voiced in December 2021, although it presents new realities that must be considered in arriving at a solution.
Ed4 | Aug 15 2023 21:20 utc | 55—
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 20:26 utc | 50 "As for finding a solution to the situation in Ukraine, it's clear to RoW that the first step would be the removal of those who illegally gained power in 2014 "
Z didn't come to power in 2014. It was an election or two later. Your argument is that everyone in office in Ukraine now should be tossed out because of what happened in earlier elections?
English Outsider | Aug 15 2023 21:37 utc | 58—
Most valuable source. Many thanks for referencing it.
On the referendum proposal:-
1. The results would depend on the administrative unit chosen.
2. Too many in Ukraine have left to live elsewhere. We found during the Scottish referendum that determining who is to vote is a tricky matter -
3. Holding referendums in disturbed areas would probably spark violence during the referendum. Since many areas of remnant Ukraine have mixed populations that'd probably continue afterwards.
Again, thanks for those sources, and the other sources you have linked to and outlined the significance of in the past.
Paul Damascene | Aug 15 2023 21:44 utc | 59—
Karlof1 usefully directs us to ponder Russia's endgame--the Westard/UkroNazi maximalist & deluded realist takes have taken up far too much space.
Not that Karlof1's scenario should be consider maximalist, but I do think it useful to try to conceive of a maximalism that will have been tempered by the later stages of this war, be that over the next 6 months or the next 2 years.
VV Putin is statesman enough to prefer a bad peace to a clear military victory above a certain threshold of cost in Russian blood. I suspect he is also sufficiently master of himself to be wary of Gorbachev's path of vainly striving to be seen as a visionary by those unfit to render judgements on his legacy.
But at the moment I see an ambitious Russian settlement of this contest as being only secondarily about Ukrainian territory. Since a bad peace with the current cast of Western leaders only means a bigger war postponed, I see VVP working to overcome his most conciliatory impulses and forcing a negotiation of the Dec 21 ultimata--and demanding early concrete concessions (such as the removal of the Aegis Ashore missile complex in Romania--as a *precondition* for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
I could actually see Russia preferring the current SMO to virtually any post-war scenario that does not entail a serious stand-down of Western forces. Rollback of NATO to 1997 borders, a treaty forbidding foreign NATO troops in countries bordering Russia, banning missile complexes within reach of Russia's borders--that sort of thing.
Until NATO breaks or the US stands down in a concrete way, Russia may prefer to continue to grind--demilitarizing NATO, de-dollarizing the world financial system, leading the Rest of the World to divert trade and especially *strategic-resource* flows away from the West (Nigerien uranium anyone)....
Acco Hengst | Aug 15 2023 21:47 utc | 60
Nail on the head, by Karloff.
Forget negotiations, the Russians will 'settle' for unconditional surrender and dictate terms. Early next year, maybe sooner. The shock of the loss and finding scapegoats will take time and we are not anywhere close to that happening. There is internal NATO talk that Ukraine should give up some territory. Z and toadies will have none of that.
The Russian security concerns from December 2021 could inspire some speculation here. NATO shrinkage, nuclear weapons and denazification is what I remember.
Ed | Aug 15 2023 22:03 utc | 62—
Ed4, karlof1 is correct. Zelensky should get no slack because he came in a copule of elections later. Reason why;
1). Zelensky was elected by a majority of the voters allowed to vote ( I will say more about that later) because he played the peace card concerning Russia and the Donbass (never mind the NATO card which came later). Peace is what the majority wanted that were allowed to vote.
2). A large portion of the people on the wrong side of the "point of contact" line established by the Minsk agrements, were unable to vote, leaving the Western Ukraine's a larger portion of the vote and the Russian speaking voters a smaller portion of the votes, and still the voters wanted peace. This sitution was especially important for the Obama / Biden / Nuland triade to get Petro Poroshenko elected after the 2014 coup (which was still a stolen election even with those odds).
3) The Russian speaking people on the Kiev side of the point of contact line had to be very careful when they voted, their lives, and their families lives, were in great danger and they were watched constantly: Most just didn't vote at all.
4). All the elections that resuleted after the US coup were the product of poision fruit, and if Zelensky had tried to resolved and make amends for the cause of the poision in the fruit, things would have been different, but he didn't. During his term, he did not implement the Minsk 1@2 accords, nor did he tell the UN or Russia that there was a scam afoot to not implement the accords in ordor to prepare for war aganist the people in the Donbass and Russia.
5). You cannot scheme, lie, and betray your country and lawfully or morally remaine or become its leader. You cannot attack and wage war aganist the minorities in your country and be THEIR president as well.
My response to Ed4 | Aug 15 2023 21:20 utc | 55--
The entire "government" apparatus in Kiev is illegitimate from my POV. That of course brings up a whole barrel of issues related to Russia's and the UNSC's interactions with the golpistas. A question I'd like to put to both Putin and Lavrov: Why did Russia recognize the junta as legitimate? But beyond that issue, let's examine the legality of Ukraine's current regime. The regime has declared and attempted to enforce Genocide on Russians, Russian speakers regardless of ethnicity, all things related to Russian Culture, including the Russian Orthodox Church, which is to say that Ukraine and its allies have committed and continue to commit the #1 crime of Genocide which essentially eliminates it as a legitimate government. It can be well argued that such a policy aim was instituted back in 1945 when the USA rescued Nazism from certain death by keeping it alive in the OUN and within Western Europe of which ample documentation exists. When we get down to historical truths, WW2 never completely ended as Nazism wasn't vanquished as agreed to by the allied powers; nor have the Four Freedoms been realized as those who saved Nazism made sure to continue their Colonial, Imperial habits and deny the vast majority of humanity what was pledged to be the political goals of WW2. It's clear to millions that NATO's goal is to finish Hitler's Plan Ost, thus rendering the current conflict existential for Russia and Russians--everywhere.
To follow up on its continual breaking of the UN Charter since October 1945, in 1996 and again in 1999 the Outlaw US Empire declared its goal to establish Full Spectrum Domination over the planet and its people. Those declarations of policy remain today's policy and thus render the Outlaw US Empire and all its vassals enemies of the UN Charter and of all humanity, and that includes Ukraine's junta. Essentially if we could have an objective dejure rendering, all those entities would be considered illegitimate governments because they certainly don't promote the interests of their civilian polities which is what legitimate nations are required to do under international law.
So, the Big Picture Reality is the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals are all illegitimate, outlaw nations waging war on the legitimate nations of the world through a variety of means. Yes, it's a World War that was declared in 1996, if not before. The real question: When and how will the Outlaw US Empire surrender (unleashing nuclear war would be a form of surrender)?
My final entry on the topic:
Thanks for the other replies to my comment @50 and to that made by Ed4. As you see by my @65, I take a holistic, Big Picture approach to our current conflict which IMO is the correct way of dissecting it. IMO, it's vital to weigh the words spoken today by Putin and Lavrov with the actions taken by the illegitimate Western nations--and that goes double for those living within those nations. IMO, solving the conflict requires removing the ability to pursue Megalomania and its partner Pleonexia by the outlaw nations, or more specifically their elites who are to be found at the top of their financial structures, since those are what control those nations' governments. Let's look at their definitions:
"Megalomania is an obsession with power and wealth, and a passion for grand schemes."
Pleonexia: "is strictly defined as 'the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others.'"
It's easy to see that Imperialism/Colonialism is the vehicle used to satisfy both addictions/afflictions. Defeating Dollar Hegemony will greatly reduce power and wealth and the passion required to maintain the hegemony. That will also render it more difficult to gain what isn't yours. Indeed, a fair-trade regime and the destruction of all loans made in currencies other than that of the loanee nation will further aide that, allowing nations to keep what's theirs.
As we know, the movement to defeat Dollar Hegemony is well underway and will be successful when all legitimate nations stand together in this quest/conflict, which is what Putin said again today. The other aspect of this is continuing business with the illegitimate nations. If that's to be done, then demand payments be made in the nation's own currency--don't accept euros, dollars or yen; create a demand for your national currency instead of accepting something easily printed and thus worthless. The sooner the Multipolar Bloc forms and its new international trade and settlement regime becomes reality, the sooner the conflict will end. Yes, the core Imperialist nations will complain, balk and fight, but must be taught they are no longer in control. If they want to participate, they must drastically reform their ways to conform to the new international reality of genuine respect and adherence to international law. The last holdout will be the Outlaw US Empire. But if it can be coaxed into not resorting to nuclear war, then it will need to come to terms with the new reality probably about the time its hydrocarbon reserves become close to nil.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 22:57 utc | 69
As argued, there’s no way to remove Ukraine and all the actions related to it past and present from the current Big Picture. The historical context those seeing the Big Picture put it into is Paradigm Change—the Era of Plunder is ending and the Era of Multipolar Sovereign Development of Humanity is beginning, and in the midst is the struggle by the ancien regime to keep its hegemony versus those aiming to displace it for the betterment of all. Dealing with all that will influence the content of what is read here.
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Paul Damascene correctly points out - as "I am on record" (as Andrei Martyanov likes to say) since April, 2022 for saying - that those Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania are a main issue for Russia. I believe they are the primary issue next to the Russian treaty proposals of December, 2021. It is precisely because the West can not and will not agree to those treaty proposals that the SMO was forced on Russia.
Russia repeatedly said during 2021 that if the West did not resolve the issue of having strategic weapons within 5-10 minutes from Moscow, Russia "would reproduce those conditions for the West." Well, if you can't force the removal of such strategic weapons - and you can't blow them up unilaterally without starting WWIII - what do you do? The only solution is to place your air defense and strategic weapons as close to those enemy strategy weapons as possible.
That place happens to be western Ukraine - and western Belarus - and further north in western Russia. The goal of the SMO - and also the movement of nuclear weapons into Belarus and the further integration of the Belarus' military with the Russian military - and the creation of new Russian Military Districts in western Russia opposite Finland - is to create a new "Iron Curtain 2.0" to shut out any possible ground military threat from the West permanently.
WWI? WWII? And now NATO and Ukraine and Poland? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice - or three times - shame on me. Russia will not be shamed again.
I haven't read most of your MoA comments over years due to your constant use of the phrase "Outlaw US Empire". Not that it isn't essentially correct but it feels like the kids playground where peoples names are turned into a rude or altered word and everyone giggles at it.
We are essentially on the same page and your comments are generally quite good. There again I am probably the only one that sees playground behaviour as denigrating the serious comments that you do make. Feels to me like Bush and his absurd Axis of Evil.