20 Comments

Yeah it’s a different world over there. I’ve been to Moscow once but didn’t travel outside of there. I have travelled in Europe on the trains and on the high speed rail of Japan. It’s an efficient way to get somewhere. Like you say though, it’s their culture. Car ownership in the US is a big deal for most people although I sense that changing as economics and forced climate change policies have forced manufacturers to build vehicles that are fairly meh now. Fortunately I still have my motorcycles but they’re trying to take those away too.

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Railroad bonds?! Hell, I would be happy just to be able to buy roubles! Any ideas? ETFs?

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I've thought about going to a bank in Mexico that deals in currencies and getting some rubles and yuan. There're other ways, but for me that's best.

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Sounds like a plan! Does it require visiting the bank in person? I’m in CA (SF area) so a bit of a road trip is conceivable unless there’s a discount airline w/ Mexico svce

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I suggest doing a search for Casas de Cambio which are currency exchange houses, in Mexico and elsewhere. Yes, because of the unfriendly nation status of both US and Canada, it's very difficult to obtain rubles or yuan, although the latter is somewhat easier and could be done at major banks in San Francisco or LA. While rubles are attractive, yuan are more easily convertible. There's a Bank of China branch in LA which might be a more feasible avenue.

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Good advice, thanks! Convertibility is not a priority- I’m a buy and hold kind of guy and I probably read too much Naked Capitalism. I’ve learned plenty over the last decade or so that I’ve been an avid follower, but there is much that’s still above my pay grade 🤓. I do read of China’s banking sector working extra hard to avoid getting dragged down by past “irrational exuberance” of the real estate sector- with the Party’s firm hand on the tiller (or rather, “till”) nobody’s pushing the panic button but still…….the roubles being spent into existence (I’m also a fan of MMT) are funding HSR, universities AND housing for the next generation of citizens (military veterans too- a GI bill deserving of our envy) and defense spending of course but their procurement methods don’t tolerate $5K toilet seats. My 2c is that Russia’s economy is already paying dividends so it’s hard for me to imagine the rouble losing value. Call me naive but one needs to believe in something. YMMV, of course 🧐

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In the comment I just posted at Simplicius's, I opined the ruble will appreciate 50%+ against the dollar by 2030 as in reality the dollar is way overvalued versus the ongoing attempts to keep the ruble down. What seem like crazy amounts of ruble investment--tens of trillions--are somewhat better understood in their dollar value +30-50%. The great disparity in valuation is one reason why it's hard to quantify Russia's worth as it in many quadrillions of rubles but how to get a better handle?

One other thing about Russia I've yet to explore is its very high % of home ownership, which includes apartments along with single family dwellings, and Russia's very high savings rate and the investment instruments provided for Russians to get their own piece of the action outside of stock exchanges.

Another avenue I've yet to try is to directly ask Russia how I can invest, which means communicating with the Embassy now that the consulates were closed by Obama.

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My cynical take is that our Hegemonic Overlords are actively working to obfuscate an objective valuation/ comparison to our “petrodollar”. All the more reason to park my paltry earnings and savings somewhere better. It’s common for Russians to have a “dacha”- a modest summer cottage for R&R- in addition to the house or apartment that they own (perhaps with a mortgage? IDK🙄) if there’s any rentier faction it’s news to me…….

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Having worked for Amtrak HQ in DC for two years, it is easy to understand why there will be no high speed passenger rail in the US. The French know how to address high speed track right of way, which is the biggest obstacle. Constructing track to keep animals out is construction, everything else is engineering. Japan and China are other showcases.

The right of way issues in the US are very difficult to address. Construction and operations even more challenging, certainly for the black women who run Amtrak. The specs for Acela did not consider the tunnels on the North East corridor. Train carriages swing a little going through curves, you know.

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I never understood the barriers to HSR in California when I was a kid. Learned why over the years. "Car culture" killed decent passenger rail in USA.

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Right-of-way, NIMBY, is the biggest obstacle, especially for the San Diego, LA, SF route. High density residential all over. Train stations like to be inside the city boundary with plentiful parking. Amtrak operates buses in the Hampton Roads area for passengers going to the Newport News terminal.

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I grew up next to Sacramento and wondered why no rail from there South then over the mountains to LA. Coast Starlight line was built to avoid the mountains and all the settlements in the central valley. Cheap airfare from North to South also killed it. But as Putin said, it's the tech side of such development that rules overall. You'll see more when you read the discussion with the tank makers, which is the next item.

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There are no technical challenges. There would not be. I can explain that in another exchange.

There are seven financial criteria mentioned. I tried to summarize them so that it would be quickly readable and just lost it (notepad). These giant infrastructure projects are expensive and require a huge (government) will.

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Organizing Russian modernization is somewhat old hat Capitalism of the sort that was done 100+ years ago with massive public sector involvement, which in Russia's case is larger than the private sector. Yes, the latter contributes, but the main engine is the government and its associated banks. Russia started down that path at the beginning of the 20th Century but didn't go fast or equitably enough which contributed to the 1905 Revolution.

As you'll read, in answer to a concerned question by one of the tank makers, Putin tells him there's a great deal to accomplish that will keep industry busy for decades. Whoever replaces Putin will have plenty of large projects to initiate and others to finish. I probably won't live to see it--How Russia and China look side/side in 2049 compared to the rapidly declining West.

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