Regarding Russia and how it reacts, I think it will continue on it's current path which is through the UN and all of the legalisms that that entails. By the way this is viewed as the Might is Right perspective by many in the US and most of the Europeans, well their leadership anyway.
Russia will continue to listen to the US in a polite manner but will pursue their own path regardless as they have been betrayed several times by the US and NATO perfidy. They can be under no illusion that the West will suddenly fold and become agreeable so they will continue with their attritional strategy, waiting for the penny to drop in the in the minds of the Western circle-jerk. They are not yet there, but are getting closer every day. Pretty soon the Europeans will realise they are drowning, not waving and things will then change for the better.
I think your 100% about your Might is Right comment. All we hear from Rubio and Witkoff is Trump is doing peace from strength. They might be right relates more to Russia since they're the ones doing it.
When your starting premise is wrong everything falls down that same path, so whenever Witkoff was asked a question he keeps saying the "devil is in the details" actually shows
that he doesn't know the details, for what details are there? Right now Russia is just going to 1st base while Trump wants the proverbial grand slam, like yesterday
interesting post and overview karl.. i have been busy with a lot of gigs the last weekend and yesterday, so distracted and playing catch up...
where is the accountability on the usa's part?? it never shows up... so again - why would russia trust anything it says?? of course ukraine would have been wise to adopt a similar policy, lol - but they didn't... to the heart of the matter and your comment and quote here -
"So, why is Trump involved or the EU/NATO? They deny being at war with Russia but insist on being part of the negotiating process. Sorry, but only those officially at war are allowed—unless one or both of the parties appoints an agent(s) to represent it. (An aside, Ukrainians ought to sue the Outlaw US Empire for waging war on it in 2014 that caused the change in government and subsequent hostilities with Russia and demand many Trillions in damages.) "
exactly... its all a big show from emperor trump.... ukraine ought to sue - yes... zelensky is an illegitimate leader and they need to have an election - something trump says which i agree with.. meanwhile, in answer to your last question at the very end - russia has to continue here, until such time as there is room to support the general UN guidelines... that is my take...
"So, why is Trump involved or the EU/NATO? They deny being at war with Russia but insist on being part of the negotiating process. Sorry, but only those officially at war are allowed—unless one or both of the parties appoints an agent(s) to represent it. (An aside, Ukrainians ought to sue the Outlaw US Empire for waging war on it in 2014 that caused the change in government and subsequent hostilities with Russia and demand many Trillions in damages.) "
Does Trump have a plan? It won't matter if he doesn't address this first - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2025/02/gut-it-like-fish-karl-denninger.html?m=0 - everything begins and ends at home - if he doesn't......what else matters? Maybe....just maybe.....this might wake all of us to the FACT that Ukraine is just a deflection from reality!
And BTW - why is Putin so patient? Because he understands our culture better than we do! We're so focused on minutiae that we can't see DaFreakingForest!
In a piece for the Asia Times, David Goldman (AKA Spengler) argues convincingly that Russia's current pace of advance is driven by its goal to obliterate the Ukrainian Army, and has little to do with capture of more land. Attacks in this pursuit are rarely more than platoon-size, and the 'human waves' casualties are just soothing nonsense the west's spokesholes tell their noddy-head audiences because it makes them feel like winners.
"Western media claim that Russia is taking heavy casualties in “human wave” assaults. This is pure invention. The war is fought at a small-unit level with dozens rather than hundreds or thousands of soldiers engaged at any given time. A high-ranking US military intelligence officer who reports on the Ukraine war explained why in a January memorandum:
There are few troop movements or assaults that involve larger-than-platoon forces. In fact, on any given day there might be 150-200 “assaults” by the Russians. A single assault will involve one or more squads, each of seven-to-10 troops, moving on a Ukrainian position..."
But it is in the final paragraph that he can barely conceal his scorn:
"Just as President Trump said, Ukraine and its NATO backers provoked the war. Not only did they provoke a war that never should have begun; they bungled its execution, woefully underestimating Russia’s capacity to adapt to new warfare technologies, and overestimating Washington’s ability to choke Russia with sanctions. The war party faces not only shame and humiliation but unemployment, and it will do anything in its power to prevent this."
I'm not sure if Trump is just dozy, and genuinely does not grasp that the USA started the war - technically in its covert cultivation of nationalist movements beginning immediately after the Second World War, but conclusively in its contemptuous rejection of Russia's demand for security guarantees, which convinced the Kremlin it was out of non-kinetic options - or is trying to blame Zeliboba because it is fashionable now to do so. But although Russia was the instrument of destruction, it did not strike until it was satisfied it had explored every other possible recourse.
As I’ve written, Trump had four years of opportunity to halt the Ukraine operation and did nothing making his an accomplice, a fact he’s trying hard to erase.
As for the military ops, I been observing since day one and well know the tactics being employed, although drones were never part of the equation when I served. Nor was night vision goggles or building penetrating IR scanners that can see through walls. For infantry, this conflict either teaches you very fast or you die.
Trump 1.0 was a novice. He hoped he would be respected and followed.
Trump 2.0 is an angry political veteran nearly assassinated. He is now to be feared, because of his gang of Musk, Kennedy, Gabbard, Vance, Patel, Bondi. All angry people.
On the contrary, they're probably heartened by all the people who are being made to keep their heads down. I read that Gabbard ordered the termination of something like 100 Intelligence personnel today for misusing the organization's chat for gabbing about gender issues and other non-work-related indulgences.
Indeed, there are few who can equal Trump in coming out with eye-popping statements that make you wonder how his tongue does not catch fire and fall, smoking, from his mouth. If you subscribe to his present view, at least as he expresses it, then all the confident statements on American media that Ukraine was kicking Russia's ass six ways from Sunday never happened, Biden never confided to the world that Russia must suffer a strategic defeat on the battlefield, followed by the disclosures from Time Magazine that the American political establishment always knew Ukraine could not win, and never expected it to.
I think the condition prevailing in the new combat environment that the western soldier will find it most difficult to be guided by is that there is no longer such a thing as concealment, at least no concealment that will also permit you to advance when it's time to move up. Once upon a time if you were invisible to air surveillance, you were invisible for practical purposes - now, if you're hiding under a bridge, the enemy can fly a drone under it and shove a grenade in your face. Troops are under constant surveillance, and you are nearly as threatened in the rear as you are on the front lines.
You could maybe hide in a bunker with observation slits too narrow for a drone to get in - but then you're in a fixed position and unable to advance, and if the enemy determines you are enough of a concern that it needs to be addressed, he will fly a glide bomb into your position. But you are NEVER unseen. Surprise, at least in an engagement area, has gone from nice to have to unachievable. Thus the new tactics, using platoon-size attacks, but many of them, so that places like Pokrovsk record daily attack numbers in the 80's but still do not fall.
I pretty much agree with psychohistorian. My late add at MoA states that Trump does not care to have a plan. He will drive the clown car and cause mass confusion, trying to escape all blame and all legalities. His ego also does not suffer failure so something crooked has to be straightened for him to save face. He will likely run out the clock (not by his choice) and let Putin decide what the outcome will be.
Legalities are not on the US mind anywhere but Putin will work a deal with some entity in Ukraine. Treaty or not, Putin will want to discard the rump state to takes who might not care much about legalities, possession being 9/10th of the law.
A new security architecture will be a long wait. Trump has to lose NATO and he has enough trouble already.
Legality is a very elastic thing in the US as in other Common Law countries. If something is not specifically declared illegal, it is legal. In addition, Trump has spent the last four years attempting to make his presidency above the law in any case. With his hand-picked Supreme Court, this is now highly likely.
I love how the blind hatred of Trump allows him to completely steamroll his self appointed opposition. Trump has fairly clearly articulated his aims. You simply refuse to hear it.
It's NOT about Ukraine at all. It's about dismantling the Deep State. Ukraine being one of the kitchens the cabal of globalist psychotics cook up their treachery.
It's glaringly obvious that Ukraine requires strong leadership for what's about to materialise over the coming months and years, will it even survive past 2025?
Well he's slipped under the radar recently but 'anonymous sources' report that Juan Guaido is back after a long period of forced convalescence. He's kept abreast of events in Ukraine, even had special jackboots flown in from Argentina to practice his goose-stepping technique.
When cynically asked by a reporter whether he'd given up on his presidential ambitions in Venezuela due to USAID funding cancelations, he stated that he had every confidence that his US handlers, currently under house arrest, would clear their names in court.
He further added that he's had recordings of most of Zelensky's acting career flown in, both the comedy and drama and identified several areas for improvement. When asked what immediate improvements he would make post Zelensky he ushered the congregation of reporters over to his sliding door wardrobe and pointed to a vast selection of business shirts and tie rack. Look he said, you can't meet with important political and business leaders wearing a green t-shirt. If you look cheap they'll throw monkey nuts at you and besides green doesn't match his eye colour. Also, I don't know whose cutting his coke but me and my Columbian friends think it's laced with fentanyl.
that's funny and has some truth to it too! it would be nothing like shoving this crazy "regime change mindset" back down its own throat.. i am all for it here..
Yes James, it was a parody of the Game Show America has become.
Unless I see significant arrests for all that alleged misappropriation of tax-payer money by DOGE then nothing changes. Let's see if Kash Patel is the rottweiler he's cracked up to be. Elon Musk specifically mentioned one scam where the head of one NGO/Government funded organisation, on a salary of a $100k or so became enriched to the tune of $30 million. Could've been Sam Power
Just reading the latest Simplicius, and, it seems to me, this paragraph fits with your theme in this post: “But the most important point is to understand that Putin represents merely the top-end surface octave of the Russian state’s true messaging apparatus. His job is to always appear amenable, gracious, cooperative, and non-vindictive. But the real underlying pulse of the messaging can be gleaned from foreign ministry and diplomatic statements lower down the totem pole rungs. That’s because Putin’s position represents a kind of holistic, universal topsoil layer of the apparatus whose job is to smooth things over, retain diplomatic connectivity and equilibrium, always presenting a certain ‘openness’ and inviting mien. The lower gears deliver the more ‘nuts and bolts’ hard truths of policy, which are meant to color the official positions.”
Sir, I would like to offer a slightly different perspective.
Question: What has Trump done besides a lot of Shakespearian “sound and fury”?
Answer: 1) Signed a lot of well-crafted executive orders that begin to close the financial spigot of the Deep State (See Mr. Crooke’s fine article in SCF), 2) got people confirmed by the Senate who will work to rein in the Deep State, 3) turned the media away from a carefully crafted Deep State narrative into complete chaos of his creating, 4) thwart the Deep State’s perpetual war by re-establishing diplomatic relations with Russia.
Mr. Trump’s focus is on the Deep State. Slash its money, slash its personnel, slash its media dominance, slash its eternal war.
I agree with your assessment that the Ukraine will mostly revert back to Russia with some western pieces going to other countries. That is probably Trump’s real plan. Russia will solve this problem. They have to. I don’t expect an effective “Nazi” insurgency in the Ukraine territory taken by Russia. An insurgency requires the support of the population. I expect that Russia will take good care of its new citizens, rebuilding infrastructure, creating industries and jobs. (See what’s happening in Mariupol.) There will be little support for Banderite terrorism.
And what about China? Isn’t this bellicosity also part of the Deep State’s forever war? I would not be surprised if Trump actually ramped up economic relations with China, moving the world toward economic cooperation and away from the Deep State’s vision of war and expropriation.
Yes, I have an article pending about Trump’s war on the Administrative State that’s a crucial Heritage Foundation project. However, Trump just confessed his role in the conflict during his first term which wasn’t very smart. I’ve yet to read Crooke’s SCF essay, which is likely the one behind the pay wall at his substack.
"How will Russia act? As a Great Power and impose Might is Right. Or will it stand by the legal UN process and confirm its word to be a defender of the UN Charter and pursue that slower route to arrive at the lasting peace it seeks?"
Both, I suspect.
Whatever the moral and legal merits of the SMO, the real world outcome in Ukraine will be achieved primarily through military might.
It's also likely, however, that Russia will strive mightily to find a way to fit that outcome within a legal framework, ideally validated by the UN.
Should that prove impossible, Russia could keep that objective open while getting on with restoring and renewing "its (eventual) territory", and suppressing where necessary any belligerent actions directed against it. If it successfully managed those two objectives, over time a legally validated agreement would become more likely.
There's much Trump can do by EO, like this: "US troops may withdraw from EU Countries that joined NATO after 1990: losing their garrisons are Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden. Preparations have also begun for the withdrawal of US Forces from Kosovo.. "
Sure, but none of those moves has any impact on a Ukraine settlement since the US isn’t a direct actor in the process—it can only be an agent if it’s appointed as one.
Here is some legal discussion on the Deal of the Century (theft) being sprung on the people of Ukraine by that clown in the Whitehouse.
"If Zelensky signs, and the Verkhovna Rada ratifies the rare-earth agreement at least within the framework roughly announced by Kyiv, Washington immediately becomes, so to speak, the majority shareholder of the Ukrainian economy. The Americans will be able to prohibit any transactions with minerals, will receive a mandatory share of their implementation, and will be able to manipulate the issuance and revocation of subsoil use licenses. But the main thing is that they will be able to completely legally, at the slightest, even far-fetched reason, arrest Ukraine's external assets, and they, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, are now estimated at more than $ 40 billion. Immediately a different order of numbers compared to minerals, you will agree."
I believe the only person with a concrete, legitimate and functional plan for Ukraine is that Russian horseman, VV Putin. The lad with the Mustang and bare chest. Consider the recent remarks whereby he reminds us that Zelensky is illegitimate and devoid of authority let alone a presidency. The only people with authority capable of conferring legitimacy are the masses in Ukraine. All other fakery is illegitimate.
Now early in January (before Trumps inauguration) Zelensky signed away Ukraines resources to Kier Starmer and his wretched band of pirates from england in some imaginary 100 year deal of the century. Today he is signing the same product away to Donald Trump and his wretched band of oligarchs at genocide HQ. Z has no legitimacy or authority since May 2024! ergo he is a fraudster.
Vlad Putin then says in the last 24 hours that he can work with Trump as Russia has plenty of those rare earth thingys and they could collaborate on getting them to market. Invest in us and we can do legitimate business on a known resource with known extractive quantities rather than p!ss about with those mortgaged goods that are below profitable load bearing cover.
Sounds like a fair proposal and I gather Mr Starmer might have some mansplaining to do in Washington today. Can you imagine how the EU bride must feel? Perfidious Albion not only walked out of the wedding a year or two back but has now taken off with all of the gifts. Now that is the solidarity one expects from the Royal House of England. Take a bow Charles.
I wrote a comment to Larry Johnson’s latest blog entry reminding him that Zelensky’s illegitimate in all respects and laid down the three possibilities for legitimate negotiations since Russia by recognizing subsequent Ukrainian administrations as legitimate has absolved the Outlaw US Empire as the actual adversary in the conflict.
Zakharova has a good report on the recent confab held in Kiev by the Europoodles in her weekly briefing today. But it’s too early in the day to provide a report on the negotiations being held in Istanbul, although she said a statement will be made as soon as the report arrives.
I see Russia has new FPV drones that have multiple bomblets to drop on infantry, not just the one shot and done types, and those will quickly be copied so Russian troops will face the same peril. Recent War Reports I’ve read say that Ukraine is using many more drones to make up for the lack of infantry, but drones can’t hold ground; they can only attempt to interdict. I await the deployment of new mobile anti-drone shelters to protect troops as they advance—something like the turtle roofs we saw installed on tanks and APCs.
Yes I saw that swat too - impressive. Kalshnikov produce an ammunition for its classic calibre that is buckshot. It is being field trialed now. You would have to quickly switch magazines or always have one platoon soldier dedicated to that duty. Its a fair response but certainly far from ideal.
At the SMO’s start and its introduction of drones, I advised that one soldier in each squad be the designated drone watcher and defender. Three years later that’s finally being done.
"Law" requires an enforcement mechanism -- and that enforcement mechanism everywhere ultimately comes down to the threat of State-controlled violence or the actual use of violence. As FDR is reported to have said when some Judge ruled against him -- He has made his ruling, now let him enforce it. No matter how nice it might seem to have a Rule of Law, it can exist only when it is enforced by men with guns.
"Law" also brings us to an easily overlooked aspect of Russia's attempts to follow its own laws. Russia is engaged in a Special Military Operation to expel the Zelensky regime from the Oblasts that democratically voted to join the Russian Federation. From Russia's legal perspective, this is not a war. Given that legal reality, what happens when Russian forces reach the boundaries of those Oblasts? Legally, will Russia have to declare war on the Ukraine so that its forces can legally advance into territory that is not part of the Russian Federation? Or will Russian forces stop their advance? Or perhaps Russia would like a deal before they have to cross that legal Rubicon?
There’s already an answer to your question as Russian forces are already operating within other oblasts, Kharkov and Sumy, and soon to be Dnipro. The SMO’s goals envision liberating all of Ukraine. I haven’t reviewed the legal aspects of that passed by the Duma in 2022, but Russia doesn’t seem to troubled about it.
Thanks for this Karl. Trump's moves have surprised--actually, shocked-- me, exposing how phony and puny the US neocon power structure is-- was-- and the Euro whores are exposed and freaked out. Combine that with the firings and money shutoff in DC and it's really big. Russia will benefit most and my guess is that they will not give up anything so the rare earth talks and Euro "peacekeepers" are just blather. Russia will take Karkov, Kiev, Niepro, Odessa and all in between. Alastair Crooke has an interesting piece out but I think his portrayal of the young bucks (Hesbeth, Rubio) makes them out to be Sir Galahads when they're shallow thinking narcissists who primp and pose as Rambo and John Wayne. Bottom line, Trump's tear down (and "walkaway" from Ukraine) is the needed first step but I'm guessing that his team will not know how to build the diplomatic and physical infrastructure needed to connect with the multipolar network. Then what?
Why would Russia negotiate peace without there first being a new Ukro president aligned with Russian interests, a new Ukro constitution that gives full rights to citizens regardless of ethnicity, a newly elected Rada according to the new constitution, and trials of former military and intelligence officers thereby denazifying Ukro? That will take time but is the only oath to meeting Putin goals.
Russia has yet to begin any negotiations over the Ukraine conflict. What’s happening now are actions aimed at reestablishing relations. That must be accomplished first. Then there’re the legal issues related to negotiations with Zelensky refusing to yield, which means nothing will happen. Just as with the so-called minerals deal, Zelensky has no legal standing to sell Ukrainian assets or to do anything actually—he’s 100% illegitimate. His signature and word are useless.
Freezing the conflict in Ukraine along the contact line is impossible due to the Constitution, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
Mr Rubio and the diplomatic corps is very much out of its depth, and President Trump must pick his narrative and stay with it, even if the US position results in the cessation of any future negotiations regarding Ukraine and her unconditional surrender. Attention span, is there any, or is President Trump always influenced by the last conversation he had? It seems to me this is a psychological problem.
By the way American strategic nuclear aircraft playing war scenarios on our border is also not serious behavior. Amateurs!
The Cold War Cowboys will continue their antics until they die off or are replaced by non-Cowboys. The minerals deal is also a no-go since Zelensky is 100% illegitimate. The only people who seem to know the importance of his illegitimacy are the Russians as Putin has said for over a year.
Yes, and I should also say for your new post that President Trump will sign an agreement they will use to legitimatize zelensky very soon. All of them are ignoring reality of battlefield and this leads to the same nonsense as biden.
Thanks Karl, I like your assessment.
Regarding Russia and how it reacts, I think it will continue on it's current path which is through the UN and all of the legalisms that that entails. By the way this is viewed as the Might is Right perspective by many in the US and most of the Europeans, well their leadership anyway.
Russia will continue to listen to the US in a polite manner but will pursue their own path regardless as they have been betrayed several times by the US and NATO perfidy. They can be under no illusion that the West will suddenly fold and become agreeable so they will continue with their attritional strategy, waiting for the penny to drop in the in the minds of the Western circle-jerk. They are not yet there, but are getting closer every day. Pretty soon the Europeans will realise they are drowning, not waving and things will then change for the better.
I think your 100% about your Might is Right comment. All we hear from Rubio and Witkoff is Trump is doing peace from strength. They might be right relates more to Russia since they're the ones doing it.
When your starting premise is wrong everything falls down that same path, so whenever Witkoff was asked a question he keeps saying the "devil is in the details" actually shows
that he doesn't know the details, for what details are there? Right now Russia is just going to 1st base while Trump wants the proverbial grand slam, like yesterday
interesting post and overview karl.. i have been busy with a lot of gigs the last weekend and yesterday, so distracted and playing catch up...
where is the accountability on the usa's part?? it never shows up... so again - why would russia trust anything it says?? of course ukraine would have been wise to adopt a similar policy, lol - but they didn't... to the heart of the matter and your comment and quote here -
"So, why is Trump involved or the EU/NATO? They deny being at war with Russia but insist on being part of the negotiating process. Sorry, but only those officially at war are allowed—unless one or both of the parties appoints an agent(s) to represent it. (An aside, Ukrainians ought to sue the Outlaw US Empire for waging war on it in 2014 that caused the change in government and subsequent hostilities with Russia and demand many Trillions in damages.) "
exactly... its all a big show from emperor trump.... ukraine ought to sue - yes... zelensky is an illegitimate leader and they need to have an election - something trump says which i agree with.. meanwhile, in answer to your last question at the very end - russia has to continue here, until such time as there is room to support the general UN guidelines... that is my take...
BINGO!!!
"So, why is Trump involved or the EU/NATO? They deny being at war with Russia but insist on being part of the negotiating process. Sorry, but only those officially at war are allowed—unless one or both of the parties appoints an agent(s) to represent it. (An aside, Ukrainians ought to sue the Outlaw US Empire for waging war on it in 2014 that caused the change in government and subsequent hostilities with Russia and demand many Trillions in damages.) "
that is an important highlight which karl has shared and to which i agree with.. yes!
Does Trump have a plan? It won't matter if he doesn't address this first - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2025/02/gut-it-like-fish-karl-denninger.html?m=0 - everything begins and ends at home - if he doesn't......what else matters? Maybe....just maybe.....this might wake all of us to the FACT that Ukraine is just a deflection from reality!
And BTW - why is Putin so patient? Because he understands our culture better than we do! We're so focused on minutiae that we can't see DaFreakingForest!
In a piece for the Asia Times, David Goldman (AKA Spengler) argues convincingly that Russia's current pace of advance is driven by its goal to obliterate the Ukrainian Army, and has little to do with capture of more land. Attacks in this pursuit are rarely more than platoon-size, and the 'human waves' casualties are just soothing nonsense the west's spokesholes tell their noddy-head audiences because it makes them feel like winners.
"Western media claim that Russia is taking heavy casualties in “human wave” assaults. This is pure invention. The war is fought at a small-unit level with dozens rather than hundreds or thousands of soldiers engaged at any given time. A high-ranking US military intelligence officer who reports on the Ukraine war explained why in a January memorandum:
There are few troop movements or assaults that involve larger-than-platoon forces. In fact, on any given day there might be 150-200 “assaults” by the Russians. A single assault will involve one or more squads, each of seven-to-10 troops, moving on a Ukrainian position..."
But it is in the final paragraph that he can barely conceal his scorn:
"Just as President Trump said, Ukraine and its NATO backers provoked the war. Not only did they provoke a war that never should have begun; they bungled its execution, woefully underestimating Russia’s capacity to adapt to new warfare technologies, and overestimating Washington’s ability to choke Russia with sanctions. The war party faces not only shame and humiliation but unemployment, and it will do anything in its power to prevent this."
https://asiatimes.com/2025/02/the-neocons-lost-ukraine-and-want-to-blame-it-on-trump/
I'm not sure if Trump is just dozy, and genuinely does not grasp that the USA started the war - technically in its covert cultivation of nationalist movements beginning immediately after the Second World War, but conclusively in its contemptuous rejection of Russia's demand for security guarantees, which convinced the Kremlin it was out of non-kinetic options - or is trying to blame Zeliboba because it is fashionable now to do so. But although Russia was the instrument of destruction, it did not strike until it was satisfied it had explored every other possible recourse.
As I’ve written, Trump had four years of opportunity to halt the Ukraine operation and did nothing making his an accomplice, a fact he’s trying hard to erase.
As for the military ops, I been observing since day one and well know the tactics being employed, although drones were never part of the equation when I served. Nor was night vision goggles or building penetrating IR scanners that can see through walls. For infantry, this conflict either teaches you very fast or you die.
Trump 1.0 was a novice. He hoped he would be respected and followed.
Trump 2.0 is an angry political veteran nearly assassinated. He is now to be feared, because of his gang of Musk, Kennedy, Gabbard, Vance, Patel, Bondi. All angry people.
Maybe so, but the Russians don’t fear him or them.
On the contrary, they're probably heartened by all the people who are being made to keep their heads down. I read that Gabbard ordered the termination of something like 100 Intelligence personnel today for misusing the organization's chat for gabbing about gender issues and other non-work-related indulgences.
Indeed, there are few who can equal Trump in coming out with eye-popping statements that make you wonder how his tongue does not catch fire and fall, smoking, from his mouth. If you subscribe to his present view, at least as he expresses it, then all the confident statements on American media that Ukraine was kicking Russia's ass six ways from Sunday never happened, Biden never confided to the world that Russia must suffer a strategic defeat on the battlefield, followed by the disclosures from Time Magazine that the American political establishment always knew Ukraine could not win, and never expected it to.
I think the condition prevailing in the new combat environment that the western soldier will find it most difficult to be guided by is that there is no longer such a thing as concealment, at least no concealment that will also permit you to advance when it's time to move up. Once upon a time if you were invisible to air surveillance, you were invisible for practical purposes - now, if you're hiding under a bridge, the enemy can fly a drone under it and shove a grenade in your face. Troops are under constant surveillance, and you are nearly as threatened in the rear as you are on the front lines.
You could maybe hide in a bunker with observation slits too narrow for a drone to get in - but then you're in a fixed position and unable to advance, and if the enemy determines you are enough of a concern that it needs to be addressed, he will fly a glide bomb into your position. But you are NEVER unseen. Surprise, at least in an engagement area, has gone from nice to have to unachievable. Thus the new tactics, using platoon-size attacks, but many of them, so that places like Pokrovsk record daily attack numbers in the 80's but still do not fall.
Legal issues is indeed the correct topic.
I pretty much agree with psychohistorian. My late add at MoA states that Trump does not care to have a plan. He will drive the clown car and cause mass confusion, trying to escape all blame and all legalities. His ego also does not suffer failure so something crooked has to be straightened for him to save face. He will likely run out the clock (not by his choice) and let Putin decide what the outcome will be.
Legalities are not on the US mind anywhere but Putin will work a deal with some entity in Ukraine. Treaty or not, Putin will want to discard the rump state to takes who might not care much about legalities, possession being 9/10th of the law.
A new security architecture will be a long wait. Trump has to lose NATO and he has enough trouble already.
Legality is a very elastic thing in the US as in other Common Law countries. If something is not specifically declared illegal, it is legal. In addition, Trump has spent the last four years attempting to make his presidency above the law in any case. With his hand-picked Supreme Court, this is now highly likely.
I love how the blind hatred of Trump allows him to completely steamroll his self appointed opposition. Trump has fairly clearly articulated his aims. You simply refuse to hear it.
It's NOT about Ukraine at all. It's about dismantling the Deep State. Ukraine being one of the kitchens the cabal of globalist psychotics cook up their treachery.
Here's just one of his statements of intent.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-eliminates-the-federal-executive-institute/
It's glaringly obvious that Ukraine requires strong leadership for what's about to materialise over the coming months and years, will it even survive past 2025?
Well he's slipped under the radar recently but 'anonymous sources' report that Juan Guaido is back after a long period of forced convalescence. He's kept abreast of events in Ukraine, even had special jackboots flown in from Argentina to practice his goose-stepping technique.
When cynically asked by a reporter whether he'd given up on his presidential ambitions in Venezuela due to USAID funding cancelations, he stated that he had every confidence that his US handlers, currently under house arrest, would clear their names in court.
He further added that he's had recordings of most of Zelensky's acting career flown in, both the comedy and drama and identified several areas for improvement. When asked what immediate improvements he would make post Zelensky he ushered the congregation of reporters over to his sliding door wardrobe and pointed to a vast selection of business shirts and tie rack. Look he said, you can't meet with important political and business leaders wearing a green t-shirt. If you look cheap they'll throw monkey nuts at you and besides green doesn't match his eye colour. Also, I don't know whose cutting his coke but me and my Columbian friends think it's laced with fentanyl.
that's funny and has some truth to it too! it would be nothing like shoving this crazy "regime change mindset" back down its own throat.. i am all for it here..
Yes James, it was a parody of the Game Show America has become.
Unless I see significant arrests for all that alleged misappropriation of tax-payer money by DOGE then nothing changes. Let's see if Kash Patel is the rottweiler he's cracked up to be. Elon Musk specifically mentioned one scam where the head of one NGO/Government funded organisation, on a salary of a $100k or so became enriched to the tune of $30 million. Could've been Sam Power
Just reading the latest Simplicius, and, it seems to me, this paragraph fits with your theme in this post: “But the most important point is to understand that Putin represents merely the top-end surface octave of the Russian state’s true messaging apparatus. His job is to always appear amenable, gracious, cooperative, and non-vindictive. But the real underlying pulse of the messaging can be gleaned from foreign ministry and diplomatic statements lower down the totem pole rungs. That’s because Putin’s position represents a kind of holistic, universal topsoil layer of the apparatus whose job is to smooth things over, retain diplomatic connectivity and equilibrium, always presenting a certain ‘openness’ and inviting mien. The lower gears deliver the more ‘nuts and bolts’ hard truths of policy, which are meant to color the official positions.”
Plus, Putin’s the only one who can present carrots as sticks can be wielded by anyone.
Sir, I would like to offer a slightly different perspective.
Question: What has Trump done besides a lot of Shakespearian “sound and fury”?
Answer: 1) Signed a lot of well-crafted executive orders that begin to close the financial spigot of the Deep State (See Mr. Crooke’s fine article in SCF), 2) got people confirmed by the Senate who will work to rein in the Deep State, 3) turned the media away from a carefully crafted Deep State narrative into complete chaos of his creating, 4) thwart the Deep State’s perpetual war by re-establishing diplomatic relations with Russia.
Mr. Trump’s focus is on the Deep State. Slash its money, slash its personnel, slash its media dominance, slash its eternal war.
I agree with your assessment that the Ukraine will mostly revert back to Russia with some western pieces going to other countries. That is probably Trump’s real plan. Russia will solve this problem. They have to. I don’t expect an effective “Nazi” insurgency in the Ukraine territory taken by Russia. An insurgency requires the support of the population. I expect that Russia will take good care of its new citizens, rebuilding infrastructure, creating industries and jobs. (See what’s happening in Mariupol.) There will be little support for Banderite terrorism.
And what about China? Isn’t this bellicosity also part of the Deep State’s forever war? I would not be surprised if Trump actually ramped up economic relations with China, moving the world toward economic cooperation and away from the Deep State’s vision of war and expropriation.
Let the Deep State grind its teeth.
TheBAG
Yes, I have an article pending about Trump’s war on the Administrative State that’s a crucial Heritage Foundation project. However, Trump just confessed his role in the conflict during his first term which wasn’t very smart. I’ve yet to read Crooke’s SCF essay, which is likely the one behind the pay wall at his substack.
"How will Russia act? As a Great Power and impose Might is Right. Or will it stand by the legal UN process and confirm its word to be a defender of the UN Charter and pursue that slower route to arrive at the lasting peace it seeks?"
Both, I suspect.
Whatever the moral and legal merits of the SMO, the real world outcome in Ukraine will be achieved primarily through military might.
It's also likely, however, that Russia will strive mightily to find a way to fit that outcome within a legal framework, ideally validated by the UN.
Should that prove impossible, Russia could keep that objective open while getting on with restoring and renewing "its (eventual) territory", and suppressing where necessary any belligerent actions directed against it. If it successfully managed those two objectives, over time a legally validated agreement would become more likely.
There's much Trump can do by EO, like this: "US troops may withdraw from EU Countries that joined NATO after 1990: losing their garrisons are Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden. Preparations have also begun for the withdrawal of US Forces from Kosovo.. "
Sure, but none of those moves has any impact on a Ukraine settlement since the US isn’t a direct actor in the process—it can only be an agent if it’s appointed as one.
Here is some legal discussion on the Deal of the Century (theft) being sprung on the people of Ukraine by that clown in the Whitehouse.
"If Zelensky signs, and the Verkhovna Rada ratifies the rare-earth agreement at least within the framework roughly announced by Kyiv, Washington immediately becomes, so to speak, the majority shareholder of the Ukrainian economy. The Americans will be able to prohibit any transactions with minerals, will receive a mandatory share of their implementation, and will be able to manipulate the issuance and revocation of subsoil use licenses. But the main thing is that they will be able to completely legally, at the slightest, even far-fetched reason, arrest Ukraine's external assets, and they, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, are now estimated at more than $ 40 billion. Immediately a different order of numbers compared to minerals, you will agree."
more here: https://ria.ru/20250227/soglashenie-2001808132.html
In Russian language.
Found via Laura RU telegram: https://t.me/LauraRuHK/9767
who is an excellent telegrammer.
Here is another reason that there should be no state called Ukraine in Russia's future consideration after victory.
I’m considering translating this item you linked.
I believe the only person with a concrete, legitimate and functional plan for Ukraine is that Russian horseman, VV Putin. The lad with the Mustang and bare chest. Consider the recent remarks whereby he reminds us that Zelensky is illegitimate and devoid of authority let alone a presidency. The only people with authority capable of conferring legitimacy are the masses in Ukraine. All other fakery is illegitimate.
Now early in January (before Trumps inauguration) Zelensky signed away Ukraines resources to Kier Starmer and his wretched band of pirates from england in some imaginary 100 year deal of the century. Today he is signing the same product away to Donald Trump and his wretched band of oligarchs at genocide HQ. Z has no legitimacy or authority since May 2024! ergo he is a fraudster.
Vlad Putin then says in the last 24 hours that he can work with Trump as Russia has plenty of those rare earth thingys and they could collaborate on getting them to market. Invest in us and we can do legitimate business on a known resource with known extractive quantities rather than p!ss about with those mortgaged goods that are below profitable load bearing cover.
Sounds like a fair proposal and I gather Mr Starmer might have some mansplaining to do in Washington today. Can you imagine how the EU bride must feel? Perfidious Albion not only walked out of the wedding a year or two back but has now taken off with all of the gifts. Now that is the solidarity one expects from the Royal House of England. Take a bow Charles.
I wrote a comment to Larry Johnson’s latest blog entry reminding him that Zelensky’s illegitimate in all respects and laid down the three possibilities for legitimate negotiations since Russia by recognizing subsequent Ukrainian administrations as legitimate has absolved the Outlaw US Empire as the actual adversary in the conflict.
Zakharova has a good report on the recent confab held in Kiev by the Europoodles in her weekly briefing today. But it’s too early in the day to provide a report on the negotiations being held in Istanbul, although she said a statement will be made as soon as the report arrives.
I see Russia has new FPV drones that have multiple bomblets to drop on infantry, not just the one shot and done types, and those will quickly be copied so Russian troops will face the same peril. Recent War Reports I’ve read say that Ukraine is using many more drones to make up for the lack of infantry, but drones can’t hold ground; they can only attempt to interdict. I await the deployment of new mobile anti-drone shelters to protect troops as they advance—something like the turtle roofs we saw installed on tanks and APCs.
Thinking of a brolly with spikes ;))
I've seen a Russian soldier bat one with his rifle. A quad-barreled 10-guage shotgun for those that get close.
Yes I saw that swat too - impressive. Kalshnikov produce an ammunition for its classic calibre that is buckshot. It is being field trialed now. You would have to quickly switch magazines or always have one platoon soldier dedicated to that duty. Its a fair response but certainly far from ideal.
At the SMO’s start and its introduction of drones, I advised that one soldier in each squad be the designated drone watcher and defender. Three years later that’s finally being done.
"Law" requires an enforcement mechanism -- and that enforcement mechanism everywhere ultimately comes down to the threat of State-controlled violence or the actual use of violence. As FDR is reported to have said when some Judge ruled against him -- He has made his ruling, now let him enforce it. No matter how nice it might seem to have a Rule of Law, it can exist only when it is enforced by men with guns.
"Law" also brings us to an easily overlooked aspect of Russia's attempts to follow its own laws. Russia is engaged in a Special Military Operation to expel the Zelensky regime from the Oblasts that democratically voted to join the Russian Federation. From Russia's legal perspective, this is not a war. Given that legal reality, what happens when Russian forces reach the boundaries of those Oblasts? Legally, will Russia have to declare war on the Ukraine so that its forces can legally advance into territory that is not part of the Russian Federation? Or will Russian forces stop their advance? Or perhaps Russia would like a deal before they have to cross that legal Rubicon?
There’s already an answer to your question as Russian forces are already operating within other oblasts, Kharkov and Sumy, and soon to be Dnipro. The SMO’s goals envision liberating all of Ukraine. I haven’t reviewed the legal aspects of that passed by the Duma in 2022, but Russia doesn’t seem to troubled about it.
Thanks for this Karl. Trump's moves have surprised--actually, shocked-- me, exposing how phony and puny the US neocon power structure is-- was-- and the Euro whores are exposed and freaked out. Combine that with the firings and money shutoff in DC and it's really big. Russia will benefit most and my guess is that they will not give up anything so the rare earth talks and Euro "peacekeepers" are just blather. Russia will take Karkov, Kiev, Niepro, Odessa and all in between. Alastair Crooke has an interesting piece out but I think his portrayal of the young bucks (Hesbeth, Rubio) makes them out to be Sir Galahads when they're shallow thinking narcissists who primp and pose as Rambo and John Wayne. Bottom line, Trump's tear down (and "walkaway" from Ukraine) is the needed first step but I'm guessing that his team will not know how to build the diplomatic and physical infrastructure needed to connect with the multipolar network. Then what?
Why would Russia negotiate peace without there first being a new Ukro president aligned with Russian interests, a new Ukro constitution that gives full rights to citizens regardless of ethnicity, a newly elected Rada according to the new constitution, and trials of former military and intelligence officers thereby denazifying Ukro? That will take time but is the only oath to meeting Putin goals.
Russia has yet to begin any negotiations over the Ukraine conflict. What’s happening now are actions aimed at reestablishing relations. That must be accomplished first. Then there’re the legal issues related to negotiations with Zelensky refusing to yield, which means nothing will happen. Just as with the so-called minerals deal, Zelensky has no legal standing to sell Ukrainian assets or to do anything actually—he’s 100% illegitimate. His signature and word are useless.
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/26/02/2025/67beecdb9a7947f36fb4155c?ysclid=m7lw3xef0860178779
Freezing the conflict in Ukraine along the contact line is impossible due to the Constitution, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
Mr Rubio and the diplomatic corps is very much out of its depth, and President Trump must pick his narrative and stay with it, even if the US position results in the cessation of any future negotiations regarding Ukraine and her unconditional surrender. Attention span, is there any, or is President Trump always influenced by the last conversation he had? It seems to me this is a psychological problem.
By the way American strategic nuclear aircraft playing war scenarios on our border is also not serious behavior. Amateurs!
The Cold War Cowboys will continue their antics until they die off or are replaced by non-Cowboys. The minerals deal is also a no-go since Zelensky is 100% illegitimate. The only people who seem to know the importance of his illegitimacy are the Russians as Putin has said for over a year.
Yes, and I should also say for your new post that President Trump will sign an agreement they will use to legitimatize zelensky very soon. All of them are ignoring reality of battlefield and this leads to the same nonsense as biden.