Yemen is quite simply NOT a 'unitary and sovereign' state at the mo. KSA and UAE [MBS and MBK] planned to take half and half. Hermetti [Sudan] supplied ground troops for KSA/UAE in Yemen. MBK has taken control of strategic island of Socotra and wished/still wishes to control all southern coast of Arabian Peninsula. MBK also hired well known US mercenary group to assassinate all Islah [islamist and close to Muslim Brotherhood - and worst nightmare for both MBS and MBK] leaders in Southern Yemen. That missile attack on Abquiq oil facility a while back has terrified MBS - but may have had its origin in Iraq and possibly indirectly in Iran.
For BRICS entry, AnsarAllah needs to take the entire country - which MBK will try to prevent, as will the US. MBS is totally sick of the place and his woeful wasteful war.
That said, I salute AnsarAllah.
As for Russia, best to do at the mo would be to ship loads of grain to Hodedah.
"The Saudis and UAE shouldn’t have been made full BRICS members. They should have been relegated to observer status until their behavior made them worthy of BRICS membership."
I agree with you, though I suppose their inclusion within BRICS was about bringing the end of the US (petrodollar) hegemony a step closer. I imagine that Russia and China are doing their best to solve the issue between Saudi Arabia and UAE on one side and Yemen on the other via diplomacy.
Yes, so much changed post Oct last year. As the zionist state sets itself into total collapse I expect we'll see a complete change of position by fence sitters. Ditto the western financial ponzi; don't be the last to the exit. Now the eurocrats are talking about confiscating Chinese assets in the EU it should be clear to any BRICS aspirants that they'll be getting similar treatment.
You have ignored the official or UN recognised government of the Yemen, if you are using the word Yemen in the way Pepe E is
That is to say the PLC – this government is on better terms at least with the Russians and the Chinese, than are AnsarAllah, both RF and C have been careful to criticise and not to support AA with regard to their attacks in the Red Sea -https://russiaun.ru/en/news/030124
While it is certainly true that SA and UAE intend to profit from joining BRICS, both intend to profit from the Yemen, and both, it seems, are encouraged in so doing, one by the US one by China
Some observers add that there are other factions to be dealt with
Obviously all this would have to be sorted out ex BRICS, although how one negotiates with the US is a problems no one has ever solved –
Besides one big hit on a US Navy ship would provoke the US into an attempt to 9/11 Ansar Allah – although this might the solution, exhaust the US this way, collapse their support for the Israel wars, and so…..the 1001 nights of President Trump
with regard to yemen - ksa and uae are both loaded with wrong intentions with regard to yemen.. true they are trying to get a leg up on each other as well, but keeping yemen down is both of their agenda...
Exactly - the situation is extremely complicated - perhaps the RF is the only country who has kept to a sufficient neutrality and to good relations with all interested parties to be able to play a mediating role - but then there's the US/UN intervention which further stymies even this
and should AnsarAllah land any big hit on a US ship......
Russia is not really neutral. The Russians are actually quite cozy with the United Arab Emirates--much more than they are with Yemen.
During a meeting last year between Putin and the UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Putin touted how Russian-UAE relations are at an unprecedented level, with UAE now being Russia's top trading partner in the entire Arab world.
Putin says Russian-Emirati relations at an 'unprecedented high level’
Another expanding area of Russia-UAE ties is arms sales, with the Russians negotiating with the UAE and India for the joint production of the fifth generation SU-57 fighter jet, as well as selling the Pantsir-S air defense system to the UAE in the past.
More importantly, these military ties supplement broader Russian-UAE strategic coordination in North Africa and the Middle East, as these two nations apparently are "pursuing a joint strategy in South Yemen," among other areas.
Russia Has Strategic Ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The RF is on good terms with many if not all players in the greater game of Yemen – to say it is closer to the UAE than to SA is clumsy – the RF is certainly closest to China, then to Iran than to any of the arabians – but this works to their advantage, both the general good relations in arabia, and the special relations with the only major players to be able to influence arabia – and add in India now
The UAE is useful to the RF, as the RF is useful to the UAE – but this is not the same level as relations with the larger countries as India, China, or Iran
These countries are all relevant to a Yemen solution – UAE is merely one of the many problems
As for Africa…in Sahel and Libya the RF work with the locals, this is their strength, in Libya they can work – they are working towards this - with Turkey
UAE, SA political military influence in Africa is minimal – they are courted for their money, suspected for their US nesness, but are themselves still hesitant, still too US tied to make any bolder moves – and in Africa they are despised for their historic and current racism
With respect it is not useful nor correct to speak of a UAE RF strategic alliance anywhere, especially not in Africa
I didn't comment on Russian relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia. But the Russians are definitely closer to the UAE than they are with Yemen and have been coordinating their strategy with the UAE in South Yemen--possibly as part of the UAE's war against that nation.
The UAE itself has a policy of so-called "multi-alignment", which is similar to what Turkey and India are doing in which they attempt to play one nation off against another to extract concessions.
The UAE not only plays America, China, and Russia against each other but also has engaged with India, France, and others in this geopolitical game.
I should note that Pepe has seen my article, linked to and commented upon it at his Telegram:
"This is very cool by Karl + excellent informed comments.
The Yemenis need ALL the help they can get.
This is, essentially, what they need:
- a Parliamentary cooperation with Russia, aligned with BRICS, SCO and EAEU.
- They are offering Russia a partnership at the Hodeidah Economic Zone - a good deal for Fesco, Gazprom, Rosneft and others.
- They BADLY need Russian investment in transportation corridors (land, sea, air, train).
- They want - and need - to import Russian wheat.
- They would love to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan - in whatever capacity.
- They want to work on a technology park project with Russia - and have a permanent exhibition of Russian products in Sana'a.
- They want - and need - cooperation on health, as in building Russian-Yemeni medical cities in Yemen.
The famine in Yemen is far from over. It's DEADLY SERIOUS.
On top of it they are fighting TWO wars - against the Saudis and against the US/UK, not to mention a blockade.
Whatever Russia can do to help - even in extremely dire geopolitical circumstances - will be priceless.
And that will be saving countless lives."
There are times when it would be nice to be on the inside looking out instead of the outside looking in and also have the ability to move between the two.
The last paragraph, the conclusion, is absolutely understandable. The BRICS and SOC are a groundbreaking development. But as I have often pointed out, they bring together nations that sometimes have conflicting interests and even rivalries. Take China and India, for example. In India, the oligarchy is for the most part closely linked to the Anglo-Saxon world. Pakistan is a geostrategically important player. Likewise Turkey. It is extremely important geopolitically.
I have repeatedly read with interest about the training that Russian and Chinese diplomats have to complete before they can fully take up their work. There is no way around carrying out massive diplomatic work and, if possible, developing a win-win strategy for all partners.
Another problem is national oligarchs and corruption. Both are as harmful as metastasizing cancer.
I understand RF talks with the Aden government have been ongoing for some time
And have included discussions for a RF port, given the frustrations the RF have experienced with their negotiations with Sudan and Eritrea
Also oil exports and power plants imports
The BRICS solution, to bring together both North and South together might be a good solution, but how could it achieve Saudi approval, a key player in the ongoing UN approved negotiations between North and South
UAE expansion is a bigger problem, even – they have stolen Socotra, are developing the port at Aden, and have, it seems, stolen another island, Mayyun, for an airbase – all which raise many problems with the Saudis, and with China, said to be behind these developments, and to be ‘using’ the UAE as proxies
With rumours of an Israeli-UAE intelligence operation on Socotra
The AnsarAllah are on a war high which might be difficult to throttle or contain
The "intrigues" are too many as IMO both UAE and the Sauds seek local hegemony, an aspiration completely at odds with the values/goals of BRICS, SCO, Multipolarity, etc. There won't be any Persian Gulf Peace accord based on indivisible security with those two acting that way. Seeking gains via conquest must be stressed as a great sin. Perhaps they ought to be accused of being no different than Zionists. And there're similar forces afoot in Africa that also need containing. Enacting the security formulas announced by China, Russia and Iran will be very difficult given the above stated impediments that are outside NATO.
Thanks Karl – the more one looks into the Yemen complex, the more complicated it appears
I had trouble even realising that Pepe E was referring to two delegations from AA visiting RF – as he spoke of the Yemen as if one nation one country one government, and that AA was all these
I have worked on writing something less confusing, but it’s very hard to do so, the more one uncovers the more confusing (to an outsider) it is
One thing I am convinced of is that the RF is the only country to have a clear minded subtle and useful diplomatic policy and relations with all sides (except of course the US side, no one has and that, as always, is a big part of the problem)
And which can and can prove that they can provide the essential - grain
China is being far too clever and playing all sides against eachother, at least somewhat
What I see in Arabia is an assortment of immature adults outside of the Houthis whose aim is to reunite their lands, prosper within them and who don't seek hegemony over others. Yes, that's simplistic, but IMO it explains the behavior we've seen over decades, which of course was caused by outside hegemonic forces.
I’m sure you are right about Ansar Allah, although I know little about their history aims and ideas
But it must be emphasised that both RF and China, with considerable determination, have made it their first priority in international affairs to follow the decisions and remain within the boundaries laid down by the U.N.
Which in the case of Yemen recognises the former government in Sana'a now in Aden
In any case the situation appears to be inextricable by force of arms, and may only be solved by very patient diplomacy and investment – only the RF and China can afford this time and money
Besides, while it is is easy to treat SA and UAE as hegemonic, only yesterday they were in the very same situation as the Yemenis, tiny bands of outcasts brought into a fabulous fold by the US and the UK, given giant stretches of land guns and money, a magic carpet ride, plus the keys of paradise when the brits dragged the Hashemites kicking and screaming out of Mecca
No wonder it went to their heads – they think it’s easy to do the same to their neighbours
This current reversal of the course of recent history, as in Ukraine, as in North Korea, has only just begun, and will take time to unfold
One can see a Yemen divided as the Sahel, but then perhaps put into an Alliance, and then.....
As we clearly see, the process of decolonization isn't yet complete, and along with the Outlaw US Empire, there remain many more outlaw nations, almost all within NATO, but not all as Japan is one of them--colony and outlaw at the same time.
Geopolitical reporting just got more complicated with the Trump/Vance nomination that must now be included into the big picture and what the Ds will do in response.
The Red Sea war which sprang fully formed from the head of the Gaza war has it’s own imperatives and dynamics – solving one is not solving the other, but might re arrange the thoughts and the cards of many if not all the same players
To mention a parallel with North Korea, is to attract attention to the fact that the first imperative is to break sanctions due to the need for food in all these countries’ conflicts, in the Sahel, in the Horn, as in Yemen – the RF has proven it can give food, by all accounts it proposes this year’s bumper crop will give it grounds to give more
The Yemen is invaded from all sides
Iran – largely supportive of the Ansar Allah, fellow Shia
RF – supportive of the official Yemen government as per the U.N., the Aden gvmt, the PLC, but retains relations with AA : all the Yemen needs food, Russia needs a naval base
UAE (with alleged China back stop) - stolen islands for ports and airbases, Socotra, Mayyun, pressure on PLC for Aden port concession to DP World
SA (with the US) - support for the ex Sana’a now Aden officially recognised UN government, PLC
US with tiny bits of NATO - to repress Ansar Allah at all costs, but failing and doomed – zero policy otherwise except to harass and hassle the SA with shrill ‘do something’s
Israel (with the UAE) - intelligence base on Socotra, one of the stolen islands
India -a dummy run or two at Socotra
China – supporting the official U.N. government, and negotiating officially with the PLC, oil and ports, Aden, but also, apparently, with the AA
RoW – especially all peoples in West Asia, very enthusiastically in support of AnsarAllah’s actions against the Israelis and the US -
(it is a blessing that the EU has not wriggled it’s way in)
Russia and China, are the only major countries on good terms with all the players in this game, all apart from the US – the US is on good terms with none, not even with itself, as the hysteria over the Trump assassination attempt has proven (let’s hope this is the first and last)
In any peace strategies first US has to be knocked out of the game – responsibility for this would devolve to SA, backed up by the UAE
Yet a major AA strike on a US naval vessel would stymy any peace plans
The Yemenis are treated with contempt by the US, and the SA -as were the Taliban, ‘goatherders’ – but in this complex situation, more people are acting with reasonable self interest and clear cut aims and intent than ever the US is able to display
Perhaps there is wisdom in bringing SA and UAE and AnsarAllah as Yemen's government into the BRICS trading house to enable conflict resolution discussions to be held. Certainly both UAE and SA have acute hopes for benefit in the forum and need to be shaken hard to let go of their absolute adherence to non mutually beneficial positions.
It will take a lot of skill, clarity and foresight to describe a path forward. Those capacities are in abundance in BRICS.
Simultaneously a resolution for the genocide against Palestine beckons and as every day passes there is a growing imperative for non aligned UN member states to act and this may let SA and UAE off the moral hook in others eyes. The bargaining space is large and easily expanded should the need arise.
You are following Pepe E in a claim that AA is the Yemen government
This is far from the case, is of course the problem
Both potential and partly actual mediators recognise another entity as the official government of Yemen and refute AA's claims and actions-https://russiaun.ru/en/news/030124
Given multiple speculations sucking up all heat and light subsequent to the NATO pivot to China, the renewed empty threats againt the RF, and the son et lumière festival of the Trump assassinations attempt
Back to reality –
Ansar Allah continues without pause to do God’s Work when it comes to defeating the US Navy, and their proxies the SA and Israel
AA treats SA and Israel as co conspirators, this despite SA’s initial and notorious attempts to remain neutral and to not aid the US naval attacks in any way
Since then SA has opened a land route to Israel to compensate for AA’s closure of the port at Eilat, and has attempted to force the Central Bank based in Aden to shut down banks in Sana’a, and has revived the US blockade
“The Saudi regime has provided services to the Israeli enemy during this crucial period by opening a land path to supply the Israelis with arms and supplies, thus, the Saudi regime declares hostility and alignment with Israel against the Palestinian people and the people of Gaza, participating in committing heinous massacres in Gaza.”
Despite, it is said vivid SA fears of any missile or drones attacks as before which shut down much of Aramco’s production
SA appears to made a wrong decision to continue to support the US and Israel, and certainly a wrong and very foolish one to threaten AA
The Gulf states need to make up their minds as to where they want to be in the future and stick to their choice. They must make a choice of saving their money or saving their soul. The money can be remade; their souls cannot.
Thank you Karl for this comment - the SA and the UAE do need to make up their mind, torn between fear and greed, life is so tough for them!
Thank you also for the link to Pepe E telegrams and those photographs - obviously this is reminiscent of the Nth Koreans
VVP being so rigorous and determined to follow the UN, and so their leadership in the recognition of the Aden régime has a tough battle ahead, but he can break the blockade with the gift of 20,000 tons of grain for a start
Thank you Karl - you posted this link already somewhere, with Lavrov at the UN?
I read it then - you know how complex Russian thinkers are, even the most straightforward like VVP
I thought it well done, but I'll have to go through once or twice again to be able to seize on his meaning
This is a a different Karaganov than the the one who debated VVP at the SPIEF, and altogether much more interest and viable
I'm trying to muster the courage and the strength to go through the Third Plenum reports, if there are a people whose intellectuals more different from the western style it would be the North Koreans (bless them) or Ansar Allah, or the Iranians, or....the world is a big place
The little guys of the world are watching. The success of BRICS is more dependent on them than the big guys. Saudi better wake up or the monarchy will be gone. Yeman needs to be protected or BRICS will be set back decades and so will the hope of the world.
i agree with you karl... i followed the yemen dynamic closely... ksa and uae - did not have the best intentions with regard to yemen - in fact, just the opposite... ksa and uae are slippery players...
russia must know this too... i hope russia and china as the bigger players in brics can work this out...
Yemen is quite simply NOT a 'unitary and sovereign' state at the mo. KSA and UAE [MBS and MBK] planned to take half and half. Hermetti [Sudan] supplied ground troops for KSA/UAE in Yemen. MBK has taken control of strategic island of Socotra and wished/still wishes to control all southern coast of Arabian Peninsula. MBK also hired well known US mercenary group to assassinate all Islah [islamist and close to Muslim Brotherhood - and worst nightmare for both MBS and MBK] leaders in Southern Yemen. That missile attack on Abquiq oil facility a while back has terrified MBS - but may have had its origin in Iraq and possibly indirectly in Iran.
For BRICS entry, AnsarAllah needs to take the entire country - which MBK will try to prevent, as will the US. MBS is totally sick of the place and his woeful wasteful war.
That said, I salute AnsarAllah.
As for Russia, best to do at the mo would be to ship loads of grain to Hodedah.
"The Saudis and UAE shouldn’t have been made full BRICS members. They should have been relegated to observer status until their behavior made them worthy of BRICS membership."
I agree with you, though I suppose their inclusion within BRICS was about bringing the end of the US (petrodollar) hegemony a step closer. I imagine that Russia and China are doing their best to solve the issue between Saudi Arabia and UAE on one side and Yemen on the other via diplomacy.
Yes, so much changed post Oct last year. As the zionist state sets itself into total collapse I expect we'll see a complete change of position by fence sitters. Ditto the western financial ponzi; don't be the last to the exit. Now the eurocrats are talking about confiscating Chinese assets in the EU it should be clear to any BRICS aspirants that they'll be getting similar treatment.
You have ignored the official or UN recognised government of the Yemen, if you are using the word Yemen in the way Pepe E is
That is to say the PLC – this government is on better terms at least with the Russians and the Chinese, than are AnsarAllah, both RF and C have been careful to criticise and not to support AA with regard to their attacks in the Red Sea -https://russiaun.ru/en/news/030124
While it is certainly true that SA and UAE intend to profit from joining BRICS, both intend to profit from the Yemen, and both, it seems, are encouraged in so doing, one by the US one by China
Which in turn involves Gaza
Russia is not disinterested – it has put a priority on obtaining a naval base in the area – the Sudan agreement is not finalised and has struggled for a long time to be born, strangled by Sudanese dealings with Ukraine -https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-is-now-fighting-russia-in-sudan-87caf1d8
Some observers add that there are other factions to be dealt with
Obviously all this would have to be sorted out ex BRICS, although how one negotiates with the US is a problems no one has ever solved –
Besides one big hit on a US Navy ship would provoke the US into an attempt to 9/11 Ansar Allah – although this might the solution, exhaust the US this way, collapse their support for the Israel wars, and so…..the 1001 nights of President Trump
SA and UAE are not on the same side - UAE is behaving very opportunistically, with apparent backing from China
The Yemen is not one side either
with regard to yemen - ksa and uae are both loaded with wrong intentions with regard to yemen.. true they are trying to get a leg up on each other as well, but keeping yemen down is both of their agenda...
Exactly - the situation is extremely complicated - perhaps the RF is the only country who has kept to a sufficient neutrality and to good relations with all interested parties to be able to play a mediating role - but then there's the US/UN intervention which further stymies even this
and should AnsarAllah land any big hit on a US ship......
Meanwhile ....no development
Russia is not really neutral. The Russians are actually quite cozy with the United Arab Emirates--much more than they are with Yemen.
During a meeting last year between Putin and the UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Putin touted how Russian-UAE relations are at an unprecedented level, with UAE now being Russia's top trading partner in the entire Arab world.
Putin says Russian-Emirati relations at an 'unprecedented high level’
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/putin-says-russian-emirati-relations-at-an-unprecedented-high-level-/3075090
Another expanding area of Russia-UAE ties is arms sales, with the Russians negotiating with the UAE and India for the joint production of the fifth generation SU-57 fighter jet, as well as selling the Pantsir-S air defense system to the UAE in the past.
More importantly, these military ties supplement broader Russian-UAE strategic coordination in North Africa and the Middle East, as these two nations apparently are "pursuing a joint strategy in South Yemen," among other areas.
Russia Has Strategic Ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
https://politicstoday.org/russia-has-strategic-ties-with-saudi-arabia-and-the-uae/
The RF is on good terms with many if not all players in the greater game of Yemen – to say it is closer to the UAE than to SA is clumsy – the RF is certainly closest to China, then to Iran than to any of the arabians – but this works to their advantage, both the general good relations in arabia, and the special relations with the only major players to be able to influence arabia – and add in India now
The UAE is useful to the RF, as the RF is useful to the UAE – but this is not the same level as relations with the larger countries as India, China, or Iran
These countries are all relevant to a Yemen solution – UAE is merely one of the many problems
As for Africa…in Sahel and Libya the RF work with the locals, this is their strength, in Libya they can work – they are working towards this - with Turkey
UAE, SA political military influence in Africa is minimal – they are courted for their money, suspected for their US nesness, but are themselves still hesitant, still too US tied to make any bolder moves – and in Africa they are despised for their historic and current racism
With respect it is not useful nor correct to speak of a UAE RF strategic alliance anywhere, especially not in Africa
I didn't comment on Russian relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia. But the Russians are definitely closer to the UAE than they are with Yemen and have been coordinating their strategy with the UAE in South Yemen--possibly as part of the UAE's war against that nation.
The UAE itself has a policy of so-called "multi-alignment", which is similar to what Turkey and India are doing in which they attempt to play one nation off against another to extract concessions.
The UAE not only plays America, China, and Russia against each other but also has engaged with India, France, and others in this geopolitical game.
Yes, OPEC+ powers those relations.
I should note that Pepe has seen my article, linked to and commented upon it at his Telegram:
"This is very cool by Karl + excellent informed comments.
The Yemenis need ALL the help they can get.
This is, essentially, what they need:
- a Parliamentary cooperation with Russia, aligned with BRICS, SCO and EAEU.
- They are offering Russia a partnership at the Hodeidah Economic Zone - a good deal for Fesco, Gazprom, Rosneft and others.
- They BADLY need Russian investment in transportation corridors (land, sea, air, train).
- They want - and need - to import Russian wheat.
- They would love to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan - in whatever capacity.
- They want to work on a technology park project with Russia - and have a permanent exhibition of Russian products in Sana'a.
- They want - and need - cooperation on health, as in building Russian-Yemeni medical cities in Yemen.
The famine in Yemen is far from over. It's DEADLY SERIOUS.
On top of it they are fighting TWO wars - against the Saudis and against the US/UK, not to mention a blockade.
Whatever Russia can do to help - even in extremely dire geopolitical circumstances - will be priceless.
And that will be saving countless lives."
There are times when it would be nice to be on the inside looking out instead of the outside looking in and also have the ability to move between the two.
The last paragraph, the conclusion, is absolutely understandable. The BRICS and SOC are a groundbreaking development. But as I have often pointed out, they bring together nations that sometimes have conflicting interests and even rivalries. Take China and India, for example. In India, the oligarchy is for the most part closely linked to the Anglo-Saxon world. Pakistan is a geostrategically important player. Likewise Turkey. It is extremely important geopolitically.
I have repeatedly read with interest about the training that Russian and Chinese diplomats have to complete before they can fully take up their work. There is no way around carrying out massive diplomatic work and, if possible, developing a win-win strategy for all partners.
Another problem is national oligarchs and corruption. Both are as harmful as metastasizing cancer.
Thanks for this
I understand RF talks with the Aden government have been ongoing for some time
And have included discussions for a RF port, given the frustrations the RF have experienced with their negotiations with Sudan and Eritrea
Also oil exports and power plants imports
The BRICS solution, to bring together both North and South together might be a good solution, but how could it achieve Saudi approval, a key player in the ongoing UN approved negotiations between North and South
UAE expansion is a bigger problem, even – they have stolen Socotra, are developing the port at Aden, and have, it seems, stolen another island, Mayyun, for an airbase – all which raise many problems with the Saudis, and with China, said to be behind these developments, and to be ‘using’ the UAE as proxies
With rumours of an Israeli-UAE intelligence operation on Socotra
The AnsarAllah are on a war high which might be difficult to throttle or contain
https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/27316/
https://south24.net/news/newse.php?nid=3974
https://dawnmena.org/the-uaes-expansionist-agenda-in-yemen-is-playing-out-on-socotra/#:~:text=Located%20in%20the%20Gulf%20of,still%20officially%20belongs%20to%20Yemen.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/25/yemen-mysterious-airbase-gets-built-on-mayun-island
The "intrigues" are too many as IMO both UAE and the Sauds seek local hegemony, an aspiration completely at odds with the values/goals of BRICS, SCO, Multipolarity, etc. There won't be any Persian Gulf Peace accord based on indivisible security with those two acting that way. Seeking gains via conquest must be stressed as a great sin. Perhaps they ought to be accused of being no different than Zionists. And there're similar forces afoot in Africa that also need containing. Enacting the security formulas announced by China, Russia and Iran will be very difficult given the above stated impediments that are outside NATO.
Thanks Karl – the more one looks into the Yemen complex, the more complicated it appears
I had trouble even realising that Pepe E was referring to two delegations from AA visiting RF – as he spoke of the Yemen as if one nation one country one government, and that AA was all these
I have worked on writing something less confusing, but it’s very hard to do so, the more one uncovers the more confusing (to an outsider) it is
One thing I am convinced of is that the RF is the only country to have a clear minded subtle and useful diplomatic policy and relations with all sides (except of course the US side, no one has and that, as always, is a big part of the problem)
And which can and can prove that they can provide the essential - grain
China is being far too clever and playing all sides against eachother, at least somewhat
What I see in Arabia is an assortment of immature adults outside of the Houthis whose aim is to reunite their lands, prosper within them and who don't seek hegemony over others. Yes, that's simplistic, but IMO it explains the behavior we've seen over decades, which of course was caused by outside hegemonic forces.
I’m sure you are right about Ansar Allah, although I know little about their history aims and ideas
But it must be emphasised that both RF and China, with considerable determination, have made it their first priority in international affairs to follow the decisions and remain within the boundaries laid down by the U.N.
Which in the case of Yemen recognises the former government in Sana'a now in Aden
In any case the situation appears to be inextricable by force of arms, and may only be solved by very patient diplomacy and investment – only the RF and China can afford this time and money
Besides, while it is is easy to treat SA and UAE as hegemonic, only yesterday they were in the very same situation as the Yemenis, tiny bands of outcasts brought into a fabulous fold by the US and the UK, given giant stretches of land guns and money, a magic carpet ride, plus the keys of paradise when the brits dragged the Hashemites kicking and screaming out of Mecca
No wonder it went to their heads – they think it’s easy to do the same to their neighbours
This current reversal of the course of recent history, as in Ukraine, as in North Korea, has only just begun, and will take time to unfold
One can see a Yemen divided as the Sahel, but then perhaps put into an Alliance, and then.....
As we clearly see, the process of decolonization isn't yet complete, and along with the Outlaw US Empire, there remain many more outlaw nations, almost all within NATO, but not all as Japan is one of them--colony and outlaw at the same time.
Geopolitical reporting just got more complicated with the Trump/Vance nomination that must now be included into the big picture and what the Ds will do in response.
Nice summation, karlof1, you placed the perfect maraschino cherry on top of Pepe's much appreciated observations.
One or two additional elements can be included
The Red Sea war which sprang fully formed from the head of the Gaza war has it’s own imperatives and dynamics – solving one is not solving the other, but might re arrange the thoughts and the cards of many if not all the same players
To mention a parallel with North Korea, is to attract attention to the fact that the first imperative is to break sanctions due to the need for food in all these countries’ conflicts, in the Sahel, in the Horn, as in Yemen – the RF has proven it can give food, by all accounts it proposes this year’s bumper crop will give it grounds to give more
The Yemen is invaded from all sides
Iran – largely supportive of the Ansar Allah, fellow Shia
RF – supportive of the official Yemen government as per the U.N., the Aden gvmt, the PLC, but retains relations with AA : all the Yemen needs food, Russia needs a naval base
UAE (with alleged China back stop) - stolen islands for ports and airbases, Socotra, Mayyun, pressure on PLC for Aden port concession to DP World
SA (with the US) - support for the ex Sana’a now Aden officially recognised UN government, PLC
US with tiny bits of NATO - to repress Ansar Allah at all costs, but failing and doomed – zero policy otherwise except to harass and hassle the SA with shrill ‘do something’s
Israel (with the UAE) - intelligence base on Socotra, one of the stolen islands
India -a dummy run or two at Socotra
China – supporting the official U.N. government, and negotiating officially with the PLC, oil and ports, Aden, but also, apparently, with the AA
RoW – especially all peoples in West Asia, very enthusiastically in support of AnsarAllah’s actions against the Israelis and the US -
(it is a blessing that the EU has not wriggled it’s way in)
Russia and China, are the only major countries on good terms with all the players in this game, all apart from the US – the US is on good terms with none, not even with itself, as the hysteria over the Trump assassination attempt has proven (let’s hope this is the first and last)
In any peace strategies first US has to be knocked out of the game – responsibility for this would devolve to SA, backed up by the UAE
Yet a major AA strike on a US naval vessel would stymy any peace plans
The Yemenis are treated with contempt by the US, and the SA -as were the Taliban, ‘goatherders’ – but in this complex situation, more people are acting with reasonable self interest and clear cut aims and intent than ever the US is able to display
They do not have the luxury of stupidity
Annexe Links
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/publicdiplomacycenter-en/from-the-russian-empire-and-abyssinia-to-the-russian-federation-and-th/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/publicdiplomacycenter-en/complementarity-gains-russia-and-china-can-provide-africa-what-it-need/
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/news/cass-delegation-visit-to-riac/
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/projects/bilaterial/russia-china/
https://www.theassay.com/articles/feature-story/eritrea-a-final-frontier-for-mineral-explorers/
https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/27316/
https://south24.net/news/newse.php?nid=3974
https://dawnmena.org/the-uaes-expansionist-agenda-in-yemen-is-playing-out-on-socotra/#:~:text=Located%20in%20the%20Gulf%20of,still%20officially%20belongs%20to%20Yemen.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/25/yemen-mysterious-airbase-gets-built-on-mayun-island
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/africa-file-may-31-2024-russian-red-sea-logistics-center-sudan
https://korybko.substack.com/p/yemens-trifurcation-is-arguably-a?utm_source=publication-search
https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-holding-up-the-speculative
Perhaps there is wisdom in bringing SA and UAE and AnsarAllah as Yemen's government into the BRICS trading house to enable conflict resolution discussions to be held. Certainly both UAE and SA have acute hopes for benefit in the forum and need to be shaken hard to let go of their absolute adherence to non mutually beneficial positions.
It will take a lot of skill, clarity and foresight to describe a path forward. Those capacities are in abundance in BRICS.
Simultaneously a resolution for the genocide against Palestine beckons and as every day passes there is a growing imperative for non aligned UN member states to act and this may let SA and UAE off the moral hook in others eyes. The bargaining space is large and easily expanded should the need arise.
You are following Pepe E in a claim that AA is the Yemen government
This is far from the case, is of course the problem
Both potential and partly actual mediators recognise another entity as the official government of Yemen and refute AA's claims and actions-https://russiaun.ru/en/news/030124
17 July 2024 Ansar Allah Update
Given multiple speculations sucking up all heat and light subsequent to the NATO pivot to China, the renewed empty threats againt the RF, and the son et lumière festival of the Trump assassinations attempt
Back to reality –
Ansar Allah continues without pause to do God’s Work when it comes to defeating the US Navy, and their proxies the SA and Israel
AA treats SA and Israel as co conspirators, this despite SA’s initial and notorious attempts to remain neutral and to not aid the US naval attacks in any way
Since then SA has opened a land route to Israel to compensate for AA’s closure of the port at Eilat, and has attempted to force the Central Bank based in Aden to shut down banks in Sana’a, and has revived the US blockade
“The Saudi regime has provided services to the Israeli enemy during this crucial period by opening a land path to supply the Israelis with arms and supplies, thus, the Saudi regime declares hostility and alignment with Israel against the Palestinian people and the people of Gaza, participating in committing heinous massacres in Gaza.”
Despite, it is said vivid SA fears of any missile or drones attacks as before which shut down much of Aramco’s production
SA appears to made a wrong decision to continue to support the US and Israel, and certainly a wrong and very foolish one to threaten AA
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25939
https://orinocotribune.com/saudi-support-for-israel-will-not-go-unpunished-by-yemen/
Massive "demonstration" today in Sanaa with pics at Escobar's telegram. https://t.me/s/rocknrollgeopolitics
The Gulf states need to make up their minds as to where they want to be in the future and stick to their choice. They must make a choice of saving their money or saving their soul. The money can be remade; their souls cannot.
Thank you Karl for this comment - the SA and the UAE do need to make up their mind, torn between fear and greed, life is so tough for them!
Thank you also for the link to Pepe E telegrams and those photographs - obviously this is reminiscent of the Nth Koreans
VVP being so rigorous and determined to follow the UN, and so their leadership in the recognition of the Aden régime has a tough battle ahead, but he can break the blockade with the gift of 20,000 tons of grain for a start
I highly suggest reading this long essay by Karaganov that's influenced Hudson's thought and Russian policy to a degree. Yes, he makes a few errors, but nobody's perfect, "Decade of Wars?" https://karaganov.ru/en/decades-of-wars/?ysclid=lylxflq7yk981676175
Thank you Karl - you posted this link already somewhere, with Lavrov at the UN?
I read it then - you know how complex Russian thinkers are, even the most straightforward like VVP
I thought it well done, but I'll have to go through once or twice again to be able to seize on his meaning
This is a a different Karaganov than the the one who debated VVP at the SPIEF, and altogether much more interest and viable
I'm trying to muster the courage and the strength to go through the Third Plenum reports, if there are a people whose intellectuals more different from the western style it would be the North Koreans (bless them) or Ansar Allah, or the Iranians, or....the world is a big place
Karaganov's position on deterrence I find rather worrying. I have yet to read this other essay by him Dr. Hudson suggested, "Nuclear escalation will open Pandora's box, but will rid the world of the 500-year-old yoke of the West," that's not quite as long and can be found here, https://karaganov.ru/jadernaja-jeskalacija-otkroet-jashhik-pandory-no-izbavit-mir-ot-500-letnego-iga-zapada/
The little guys of the world are watching. The success of BRICS is more dependent on them than the big guys. Saudi better wake up or the monarchy will be gone. Yeman needs to be protected or BRICS will be set back decades and so will the hope of the world.
i agree with you karl... i followed the yemen dynamic closely... ksa and uae - did not have the best intentions with regard to yemen - in fact, just the opposite... ksa and uae are slippery players...
russia must know this too... i hope russia and china as the bigger players in brics can work this out...