31 Comments

Gideon Levy is usually spot on - and the passage cited by Crooke is how I see it as well.

Hezbollah appears to be stepping up its involvement slightly, as it apparently has stated it will take action as a result of the deaths of three Hezbollah members, and they have apparently fired some rockets at Israeli encampments. I do agree that they view this as a possible trap, as do I.

The sequence is pretty clear:

1) Israel needs to deal with Hamas first, as they are the weakest enemy in the region;

2) then Israel has to deal with Hezbollah - and only with US direct assistance, even if not including boots on the ground;

3) Israel may or may not deal with Syria with or without US assistance - the neocons would like this as lateral escalation against Russia;

4) Israel starts a war with Iran to which the US will take over the bulk of the effort.

Without following these steps, Israel and the US neocons can not get a war with Iran going without Israel taking the brunt of the economic impact as a result of Hezbollah being able to deal serious damage to the Israeli economy.

The question arises as to whether Israel can succeed in dealing with Hamas without taking an equivalent economic hit, as noted in the article. We'll have to wait and see, I guess. I can't make that prediction.

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Careful what you wish for....

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I wished for something? News to me.

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Can’t imagine the Muslims saying goodbye to Al-Aqsa.

Also the USA will certainly socially plummet deeper into its Death Culture Cave orchestrated by its corrupt leaders to its own impoverishment.

It’s amazing this crazy intolerance has gone on for so long without one peaceful lesson learned .

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Lessons were learned, just not the one's we'd like. But what's been learned also has value.

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I think so too. It’s the experience having a value. To imagine one who thinks they own a shrine is to look at the primitive before the conception of religion.

The darkness is still a lesson.

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Yeah, kids dying sucks.

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"stealing Palestinian lands" no - "stealing isn't the term. Stealing is done in secret, clandestine.

A thief steals. A robber robs. A military requisitions or, less officially, loots. A government confiscates. There is a whole lot of terms sequester, seize, impound ... but "stealing" isn't one of them.

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Agreed that I should have stuck with my preferred term--Plunder--at that's the name of the Age we're seeing the end of and the conflict between what remains of the Plundering Empires and the Global Majority. And Zionists are clearly Plunderers.

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The press and media in the UK have gone full on Nazi against the inhabitants of Gaza, equating them with Hamas and therefore "animals". Occasionally they seem to remember that several million innocents inhanbit the area which is being bombed and shelled by the IDF. I hear no calls for an evacuation of what looks likely to become a war zone but instead the food, water and power blockade appears to be supported. This is from the same people that have been spewing lies and misinformation about Russia for years.

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Well, what should one expect from THE major--primary--Zionist enabling nation?

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Andrei Martyanov weighs in and he puts weight on the reports from Egyptian intelligence that Israel - right up to Netanyahu personally - was warned by them that something big was coming. He does not, please note, declare that as definitive, but he correctly states that it needs to be taken into consideration in conjunction with other reports of the lack of Israeli IDF protection for Israeli citizens. He also mentions Netanyahu's obsession with Iran. He also suggests the entire thing could be related to drawing the US into a conflict with Iran.

He does mention Hezbollah, however. As everyone probably knows, I believe the essential precondition for a war with Iran is defanging Hezbollah. Gaza is only step one. Andrei thinks both Hezbollah and Iran will stay out of it. I'm not so sure but I think it's definitely possible that he is correct. He believes Israel has all the necessary forces to deal with Hamas,but that depends on how good their tactical and operational plan is for gaining control of Gaza, which he won't comment on because no one knows.

Check it out:

Focus!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoEcOx26XeY

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Yes, how the siege of Gaza unfolds is militarily a blank map at the moment whereas politically the sides are fairly well set with the Zionists and their Western supporters in the minority. I'm sure Putin and Iraqi PM Sudani will be questioned at the Russian Energy Week Plenary Session being held today. If the Egyptians are correct and Netanyahu allowed this to happen, there could be internal political fallout in the aftermath since the human and economic toll on the Zionists won't be light as the siege will easily last until November. How much damage Ashkelon suffers will be a harbinger.

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Karl, thanks for your continued work on this and so many other issues.

Unfortunately Netanyahu, who's been around since the election after Rabin got assassinated, is clear on the matter. He was the man when the Israeli right wants to eliminate the possibility of a two state solution. It was eliminated. Now the agenda on the table is compelling the Palestinians to vacate what they still have within the holy land. I.e, ethnic cleansing. They don't particularly care to murder the Palestinian population, but if that's what it takes, then so be it -- in the view of the Israeli right, who have been steadily growing and are the bulk of Netanyahu's political support in Israel's surprisingly well structured multi-party proportional democratic system). The required conditions are the means and the justification as they see it . . . Any way, as it stands in the heat of the propaganda moment, the justification is in place, though not the the means -- not without a lot of help from the US.

So we're looking at probably a partial "Falljuah" situation in Gaza, and a very tense standoff in the West Bank and Lebanon. Grim times.

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Thanks for your contribution. I wonder what the depth of the water table is under Gaza and if the cutting of the water supply was anticipated?

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Stepping back a little, this intractable problem is no less intractable today than it was a year or twenty ago. However, the stakes have been raised by the scale of the initial attacks (at least as reported) and response, along with declaration of war and so on.

It is a US election year during a political period in which all norms are under attack and some sort of bloody color revolution is looking increasingly likely. Many celebrities - who of course are controlled Mockingbird assets par excellence - immediately chimed in with anti-semitic tropes designed to inflame pro-semites (with of course both scripts being no more than two sides of a worthless coin).

Assuming this is not resolved somehow relatively soon (settlement from on high brokered by Russia and China proving their way is best?), it will ratchet up chaos world wide, but especially in an already deeply dysfunctional US.

Just as the SMO started the same month that lock-downs were finally being lifted in Europe, so also this business has flared up just as the Ukrainian counter-offensive narrative was finally and forever bogged down in early October rains after a year of hype and absolutely nothing except about 200,000 deaths to show for it. Time for another story. And further anxiety with cognitive dissonance. It's what 'they' do...

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The Establishment is always ready to shift its Narrative to conform and shape events. Lots of initial lies at the outset to inflame and cause knee-jerk reactions as usual, although it must be noted the level of genuine visceral hate shown by many within the Outlaw US Empire was a new wrinkle. Lots of uncharted water being sailed in blindly means we'll see some shipwrecks.

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Nabka most likely. Expel the Palestinians from the Gaza strip.

Going South to Egypt would be the shortest path. Living in tent cities in surrounding Arab countries has been tried only to see the Palestinians get ejected. Rock - hard place country.

Nice to see Russia prepared to absorb its Russian emigrees. Likely not to be covered in any Western MSM.

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What the Zionists want from the Gaza region lies offshore. The crystal ball is cloudy when it comes to a second Nabka not being pushed back against by regional powers. We wait and watch.

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"...A democratic state for the two peoples..." would be a pipedream for said peoples who have been at each other's throats for thousands of years before Christ and Mohammed ever walked the earth. With no dog in this fight, I believe no one is coming to the Palestinians aid: Egypt was cowed early on by Izzie threats at their border, Hezbollah's response has been muted, the West Bank has been MIA thus far. The US 6th Fleet is steaming toward the eastern Med. Allegedly, the Seals and other SF are going into Gaza to rescue hostages. Gaza appears to be a gonner.

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If Gaza dies as implied, Occupied Palestine will too. Recall the huge importance of Al-Aqsa for all Islam.

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Al-Aqsa is the wild card. The Temple Mount, in a sane world, would remain status quo.

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Hamas is unfortunately a jihadist outfit , and most of its followers are of course young men of thirty or so at a maximum. The days of the secular, all-inclusive PLO are now gone , so you will have few Christian Palestinians joining such a movement. People forget that some of the most famous and patriotic Palestinians to take the fight to Israel in the Seventies and Eighties were such and they died for it at the time. So you now have a movement that only indoctrinated jihadi Moslems really feel a part of. Secular ,wordly , Western-educated ,cultured Moslem Palestinians will take part half-heartedly if at all.

If HAMAS is such , how will you get educated, Humanist ,Secular and Leftist Westerners to support HAMAS against Israel? People like me for instance. Sure we like to take the Israelis down a peg or two , but who like this above group will continue supporting them in the long term,if they keep winning? I just can’t see it happen. I wouldn’t want such people living next to me , even if I do think Zionism is a blight on the world. Problem is I think jihadi Islam is also such a blight too. A more cynical ,crueler me would say ,”let them both fight themselves to the death and let’s be over with it “.

Unfortunately, the narrative has already taken over; that we have mobs decapitating babies and slaughtering grannies. Sadly, knowing HAMAS , I am sure some of that is happening , but not as much as the news tell us. Why do I bring this up? I bring it up as the Zionist-friendly crowd is united in support for Israel and against barbaric jihadis, whereas the anti-Zionist crowd is fractured amongst the Moslems and Palestinians themselves , and its westerner supporters like me. The resistance against Zionism is more nuanced and less monolithic than supporters of Zionists. In general, the united enemy wins over the fractured resistance. It is a universal axiom of war. Europe , NATO and its familiars appear to have no problem with Israelis calling the Gazans “animals” so the demonisation of the Palestinians is almost complete. No matrons/ doctor’s wives in upmarket suburbs of Germany,USA or the UK will cry for Palestine.

I don’t think HAMAS will receive public help from any military partner at all , it will receive small arms,drones , missiles and manpads maybe, but no boots on the ground. Why ? Iran has to keep its powder dry for the BIG ONE, as does Russia and Hezbollah and the Gulf Arabs(with Iran) . Peace with Israel is in the best interests of Russia, China, Gulf Arabs -see China / Russia mediated accords, Belt and Road and pipelines,Iran/Saudi rapprochement-and I can’t see them rocking the boat , if at all, until things get really really ugly ,as in total extermination of Gazan Palestinians. Of course, we all know the plans of mice and men , and look how one man was all it took to start WW I .

Was it a trap set by Israel? I believe yes it was, BUT only the very Israeli high-ups knew about it AND it suited Russia and perversely the US that this war occur. Russia to take the pressure off both its image and success in the Ukraine , the USA to take pressure off the bad image of Biden and NATO uselessness and Israel to have a reason to kill all Palestinians. It needed to regain face in the Middle East and with its Western Partners. Time to throw a little guy against the wall and all that . I do believe, Israel wanted a controlled burn-off of the forest but got a bushfire or wildfire as the US-ians say. Nevertheless , it seems the Israelis have gotten the permission from the apathetic, stupid and deluded Western masses to kill off all Palestinians via the cutting off food, water and power. So who gets a larger share of that gas out in the Mediterranean? Israel does. Who gets access to ports and the traditional ports for the Silk Route on the Mediterranean? Israel does. Who gets even leftist, cultured, Humanist Israelis now supporting genocide that even Hitler didn’t achieve? Netanyahu and his Jewish Supremacists do .

One further point, has anyone considered that all Arabs and Moslems would love to see the Palestinians die off? Yes, it is likely, as the Arabs have taken money and looked the other way for almost 70 years , noone more so than the Sauds , who as the key Sunnis are the main fatherfigure for the Moslem Palestinians. Noone hates the victim more than the supporters who stood by and did nothing, out of fear etc. Who gets to wipe the slate clean and not have to worry about guilt for not protecting the bleating Palestinians? The Middle Eastern Sunnis!

Will Gaza be another Bakhmut? Yes, if you mean Israel taking the place of Russia. Unless HAMAS is given heaps of anti-air, the Israelis will just kill them off by thirst or flatten them with their aeroplane missiles and bombs. They won’t even have to drive tanks in or send boots on the ground. How did the Persians kill the 300 once they were surrounded? Simple. Finished them off one by one with arrows and never let a Spartan get close to them . So will Israel do to the Gazans to safeguard Israeli lives.

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Unfortunately ,I edited and lost half my post! Oh well . Next time.

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A number of ugly facts in your comment. The corrupting of the Arab world by the West being the most important as that changed the regional chemistry from 1973 to now. The main fact at present that needs more spelling out is that like the West generally, the Zionists don't fit with the Global Majority and never will since they see themselves as superior to all others just as the Nazis did. In the world going forward, there's absolutely no room for that sort of outlook, which clearly presents a problem for global stability and security in the coming decades if Zionism is allowed to persist.

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Maybe we're all overthinking Gaza. Maybe its just for coastal real estate. Jared Kushner's gonna open a Father-in-Law Hotel franchise where the beds "are as comfortable as Ivanka".

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@Mike Hampton

There are SEVERAL reasons that ethnically cleansing Gaza at this time is so popular. One is the rising price of natural gas AND AMMONIA MADE FROM NG-

Perhaps the crews drilling the coming Gaza natural gas field wells and building the Israeli LNG/anhydrous ammonia/ammonium nitrate export facilities can all get blocks of rooms at the new ocean front Kushner/Trump towers resort?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_the_Gaza_Strip#:~:text=The%20discovered%20natural%20gas%20reserve,1%20and%20Gaza%20Marine%202.

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I believe Israel's main motive, always, is to wipe out Palestinians, but with a crisis never going to waste, there will be multi-pronged objectives. I'm hoping their economy tanks so they become more hesitant. Of course, that would speed up the recession for us all.

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@Mike Hampton

They don't really care about wiping out the Pals, so much as taking everything they own (everything in their territory + conquered land the Israelis haven't expropriated yet). If the Pals all want to move to NYC and open pizza takeouts, Israelis won't waste ammo on them.

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As said earlier, real estate.

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