Discussion about this post

User's avatar
richardstevenhack's avatar

Comment on Karl Sanchez' "Zionists Cross Red Line at Al-Aqsa Mosque…"

A lot of people over at MoA are doing "rah-rah" for Hamas, talking about "defeating Israel" and "forcing Israelis to flee the country."

This is idiotic. Believing Hamas can defeat the IDF on their own is the same as believing Ukraine can defeat Russia, i.e., it's delusional thinking from people who have zero concept of the military balance.

I just looked up a report from 2009 on Hamas' military capability. Even assuming Hamas has gotten stronger and gotten newer weapons over the last twelve years, which they certainly have, according to that report Hamas had about 15,000 total potential combatants, with only 2,000 real soldiers. More recent estimates from the last few years suggest as many as 20-40,000 potential combatants, but I can't find a decent estimate of actual soldiers. Let's assume Hamas can put 20,000 people directly engaged in combat with the rest as logistical tail.

Compare that to Israel which is described here:

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=israel

Israel has 173,000 active personnel, and 465,000 reserves.plus 8,000 paramilitary. Israel has 1,760 ready tanks and 520 ready self-propelled artillery and 240 ready towed artillery. It has 193 ready fighter jets and 38 ready attack helicopters.

While Hamas has more modern missiles and antitank weapons than in the past, it is not possible for Hamas to defeat Israel on their own. The question is: Will they get help from Hezbollah? Syria won't help directly, Assad has too much to lose. Iran can supply weapons via Hezbollah but that's about it. The rest of the Arab nations won't do anything, as usual. Without direct help from Hezbollah, Hamas can not achieve much.

It may be possible for Hamas' large organization inside Lebanon to help somewhat, but that raises the question of whether Hezbollah will approve and support them given the risk to Hezbollah and Lebanon itself, which still currently does not have a functioning government. Should Hezbollah directly support the Lebanese Hamas organization in a direct attack into northern Israel, this would significantly change the military situation. OTOH, should that change produce a real threat to Israel, Israel would immediately call on the US to help - and I have zero doubt that the US would help.

The report I mentioned earlier suggested that Hamas back in 2009 operated on several assumptions:

1. Israel will not go to war now

2. Israel will conduct air strikes only

3. Any operation will be short

4. The Israeli population will pressure the government to end the conflict

5. Israel will not receive international support and will be largely isolated diplomatically

6. Israel will face multiple fronts - it expected West Bank Palestinians to riot and Hezbollah attacks.

Some of these assumptions proved erroneous then and may prove erroneous now, especially if this Israeli operation is part of a coordinated plan either by Israel or Israel and the US neocons.

Expand full comment
Die Untermensche's avatar

It's good to see that you've highlighted the earlier Zionist provocations that preceded this reaction. Most news agencies have described this as unprovoked.

Expand full comment
39 more comments...

No posts