Very unfair to lay this at Russia's door. In case we need reminding, the real target of the Western Empire is Russia. If Putin had the choice between sending more forces, getting dragged into this conflict, one in which a 200,000 man army had already collapsed (that's the Syrian Army), losing a base OR saving Russia, which should he choose?
Syria is a country of 20 million and has been attacked, sanctioned and starved for 13 years by the US and its allies. The attrition has taken its toll.
Russia has a population of 150 million - just because Russians rightly pride themselves on never losing a war, does that mean they will never lose?
Look at the odds against Russia - Iran, who reportedly refused to send troops to help Assad, now has a pro-western president who wants a deal with the US; China will continue to watch and do nothing - As Alexander III famously said: "Russia has just two allies, the armed forces and the navy."
NATO is in Russia - in Kursk and the Ukraine war is far from over.
The main beneficiaries of the Syrian disaster are Israel, the US and Turkey. Erdogan controls the Black Sea and Turkey is a member of NATO - should Russia start a war with Turkey?
This is a small part of World War III - it's going to be a long war. Without Russia, we are all lost.
I find no fault with your reasoning. My main point is Russian policy ought to have prevented this outcome by being much more proactive in 2020-21 and could have continued from 2022-24 as it didn't need to provide extra military forces as it merely needed to exercise what it had to get Turkey to move and not get more ambitious.
What does this all say to the Global Majority for Russia to be seen as favoring business with Turkey over its security commitment to Syria? How much trust has Russia lost with this event?
The time for fighting was 2018 to 20 when Russia had options to take Syria into Idlib but was coerced or refrained to take out al Nusra (Qaeda)..
The collapse of Syrian Arab Army seems to be from economic harms, neglect and a maybe a big bribe. Syria was/is a failed state! Mostly work of USA.
Russian intel likely understood the correlation of forces and pulling out of a very difficult operational situation (massive US and Israel airpower in region) the least bad choice.
The logistics burdens much less the required forces do not imply Russia should be tied down in Syria.
Reports of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian military assets may show this is not a refined al Nusra.....
The egregious display of inhumanity and disregard for moral norms displayed by the U.S. should be evident to the free world, of which U.S. and it vassals are not members.
Agreed and might I add: In the balancing acts of diplomacy and military security, Turkey under the fanatical pan Turkic dreams of the ruling Turkish Grey Wolf fascists represents a serious threat to Russia and many of the Stans across the southern belly of Russia. This is a vulnerability that needs mighty careful management for Russia.
Erdogan used his dodgy alliance with Russia and carried a big stick of Syrian betrayal openly in his hand over the past decades while he progressed this threat thousands of kilometers to the east. Now that Syria club is gone - played out and Russia has a new diplomatic, economic, power slant to its discussions with many of the Turkic peoples across its southern neighbours/partners. That dynamic has changed.
I constantly challenge the mindset of the Crusader, the enlightened brigade rushing forth to save the day that is constantly shoved into my eyes and ears from the first day at church Sunday school right through to today. I put it on park and now listen carefully to more inclusive histories and observe the intellectual heritage of a century or two of diplomatic development applied by Russia and China to the mad, genocidal bastards of the west. Initially I leapt for the imagined cure of a victorious SAA/Russian/Iranian counter punch. The programmed desire for immediacy etc, etc. And then I recalled all the original weary talk in 2022 Ukraine about GREAT RED ARROWS on maps and remembered - Russia and China and Iran dont do this no more as it leads to great pain more often than it succeeds.
Let us be patient and park the blame game in our pocket and imagine Trump being at all capable of getting away from the West Asian tar baby and not losing his shirt. He has form when it comes to bankruptcy. There is a real possibility that by building terrorist hordes one can gain some small advantage, but enabling said hordes to bloat their chauvinism and take control of a strategically significant nation at the node of a emergent trade route in the Middle East and smack bang across the belt and road from Gulf of Hormuz to the Mediterranean could have unforeseen consequences.
Agreed. We need to look both ways. To be Russian fan boys would make us the opposite version of the Western propagandists we point out. Russia may have a lot on its plate, but it still fucked up.
At this point it seems very premature, and perhaps incorrect to lay the lion's share of blame on Russia for the Syrian Govt. not having their Army do anything other than retreat and then change to civilian clothes once in Damascus (which is what I hear has happened).
If you have not seen this interview by Rachel Blevins of Kevork Almassian, you might find it worthwhile.
I've been watching Kevork and will watch this too...but he's pretty hopeless for the past days - this is a good interview - with Dimitri Orlov - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4Moq4lPh4s
I feared the worst after listening to Kevork Almassian's interview with The Gaggle, and the feeling of doom settled on me even more after listening to Pepe Escobar's interview by Nima.
Almassian said something I might have dismissed as paranoia a couple of years ago but that the Ukraine war made me more receptive to, which boils down to the idea we're witnessing a global war between good and evil. He said that Canadian NGOs are offering to resettle Christians from Aleppo in Canada, not with refugee status but as residents; and he believes that Israel, with the complicity of the West, wants to wipe out all vestiges of Christianity's Levantine origins. He knows how crazy this sounds and I agree; at the same time, I've learned never to say never with these evil ghouls as they wreak untold havoc on the world.
Could not agree more. Many factors at play here and quite a few misjudgments. There is important context, too, in Syria, Russia, Iran and Lebanon--what the Soviets would call the correlation of forces. In Syria itself the backdrop was the crushing of the Syrian economy by the Caesar sanctions and the theft of Syria's oil and wheat. It is easy to underestimate the power, persistence and viciousness of The Empire. Understand you are dealing with the Devil (metaphorically)--the first step to victory.
FWIW, I don't think either crushing of the economy, nor the brutality of war, can explain it. There are counterexamples to that, in Yemen, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc
Looks more and more like Putin pulled the plug. Looks more and more like the problem was not that the SAA wouldn't fight, but that they were told not to fight. Looks like Turkey, Russia and Iran made a deal. What the quid quo pro was, don't know. Assad was called to Moscow just before the offensive. Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall.
They may have made a deal to salvage the situation. E.g. Russia keeping Tartus and Latakia sea/air bases for some totally unpredictable period of time (ie until the next time Erdogan sees an opportunity, or until one of his countless enemies whack him), in exchange for Russia helping Turkey today getting a bigger slice of the Syrian carcass than would be the case without Russia's cooperation. What Turkey could offer Iran, I'm not sure. Turkey certainly isn't doing squat in regard to Israel, other than empty rhetoric.
So apart from practicalities of getting from point A to point B, the way it turned out is overall, is not in Russia's favor. And especially not in Iran's favor. And of the many things Turkey could conceivably promise to Russia, the everlasting problem is Erdogan's total lack of trustworthiness. He's not only screwed Russia in the past, in Syria, but he just this past month offered the US (i.e. incoming Trump admin) a potential deal in which he'd shut down the Russian S-400's he bought, in exchange for getting back into the F-35 program. From which he obviously just wants tech -- Turkey now has an indigenous aerospace industry and fledgling domestic fighter jet industry - he isn't dumb enough to fall for Lockheed's bullsh#t. Point being tho, that Erdogan is visibly not on Russia's side. His deal here, I'd say, was with Israel, as can be seen via the HTS dude's repeated assurances and proclamations of friendship to the genocidal Israeli state next door.
The Gulf monarchies are also in the picture, as the traditional deadlock of pipeline politics is that no major oil producer may ever have a stable land route to Europe...
thanks karl.. i don't know that i agree with you... this interventionist attitude has to stop at some point... blaming russia for it seems off to me... i would blame the interventionists myself... i know your heart is in the right place..
I 100% agree with this. Its so tragic. All for the sake of business. Pipeline through Turkey Putin already made this mistake thinking Russia could join NATO when he first came to power....and I remember him chumming up with the idiot son of the Bush family. that was embarrassing to watch. I wasn't clued in any better than Putin at the time but watching those old documentaries - its sickening how much he tried to be part of the club. And it lingers on. Now I wonder about Iran. Has the new president really betrayed the Resistance. Syrian Girl said the Resistance is over now. They lst so many. But this is a war that cannot be lost. If the Great Israel comes into existence...this planet is going the same way as Mars did. Now supposedly the spiritual environemnt of Mars is extremely warlike. For any who might be interested in the work of Rudolf Steiner.
Iran reportedly offered to intervene, but asked something (unspecified) from Assad to help out (perhaps cracking down on the internal power structure in the SAA, which betrayed equally as much as Turkey did), which Assad apparently had trouble with
Martyanov is going off at Arab generals and the soldiers generally, making them the scapegoat. IMO, he again paints with a brush far too wide, which is his #1 fault. I intend to listen to the Monday shows very intently. It was suggested somewhere that Russia is shortening its lines by abandoning Syria. I wonder how Lavrov feels after all his efforts in Doha? IMO, he's too loyal to resign in protest, nor do we know how much he advocated for policy change related to Idlib, Turkey and its terrorists. There seems to be a lot of fog everywhere but where it usually is here on the Oregon coast.
Yeah Martyanov loves to say how stupid everyone else is. Which may often be true, but becomes very tedious.
I'm sure Lavrov isn't happy, Erdogan basically just extorted some concessions out of Russia, it looks like, in exchange for Tartus and Latakia. On the other hand, it's clear that RF is prioritizing Ukraine - and I don't think this decision is hard to justify to anyone. I'm curious about Iran's angle myself tho. Repeating smth another observer made, but they have every reason in the world to develop nuclear capability ASAP now.
Assad was trying that rapproachment with Saudi and gulf states and part of the deal was no Iran in Syria so there were hardly any Iranians in Syria - and the Syrian army was caput - 1991 bitchute posted a video found by a Russian soldier in Syria of all sorts of body armour and guns in a pile that was left by the Syrian army. Generals were only getting $45 a month. The Cesaer Sanctions worked and US got its dream
There's speculation everywhere that's all over the place, Putin made a deal with Trump, Syria for Ukraine, but this makes no sense whatsoever as Putin/Russia have won Ukraine regardless of what happens elsewhere. I believe that Pes of Iran is a total loser, Iran should've retaliated long ago like they said they would, total destruction of one airbase would've taught Israel a lesson, if not a 2nd would've for sure.
The resistance acts as if they're afraid of war, the very war being pursued on them as we contemplate all of this, they the resistance have to snap out of the denial they are currently in, for the double down empire will just keep on doubling down until the end of it.
No one gives up power just cuz you ask nicely, especially the powers of the USUKIS axis of evil
While we can feel like this is a huge defeat, it's going to be rammed down our throats. Here in the West our lying traitorous politicians will get in on the gloating act. Claiming a victory for themselves. I get the big feeling this isn't over by a long shot. I will say this though, are the Chinese that naive or even cowardly, that they think everything will all work out for the best in the end. If we sit & do nothing. It's becoming g very apparent China has the wealth now to drive BRICS forward. But have they actually got the stomach for what they're going to face? Do they not realise every little globalist victory is a set back for they themselves? Do they not realise every 1 less problem for the globalists, is going to bring the globalists nearer to their border? More confident in themselves China won't dare stop them? Their weakness is showing a massive invitation sign to the globalists. An invitation to do what they want to harm China & expect no push back.
Thankfully the continuity of Chinese history gives great comfort to those of us who have followed its development the thirty years. You’re welcome to your own private nightmares, but China has managed to survive and flourish even in the face of continuous claims of incompetence, corruption, and cowardice since the time of Mao.
There is no way they did not see this. So before we leap to confusion we must consider what else Russia can see and what other factors inform their calculus. I can only imagine some of them and have expressed those views elsewhere on this thread. I suggest absolute winning in Ukraine is paramount. IMO it is more important to tangle the hegemon now than it is to prick its toes. I recall the hegemon actually built the Taliban then was defeated trying to war with them and then US disgrace with their retreat from Kabul. The Russian diplomacy right now with that government is progressing well enough.
While the exchange of facts, points of view, and even baseless opinions has potential value, even the best substacks risk devolving into groups of “armchair athletes” exhorting their teams and crushed r exhilarated by failed blocked punts.
The idea that Russia has less information, insight and executive capability than the collective posters here is absurd on the face of it.
The idea that there can be anything other than imperfect understanding of geopolitical events as they occur in real-time is imho equally fallacious.
Some people here may not realize that the origins of the most transformative geopolitical event of the twentieth century, World War I (I accept the nomenclature from usage, not fact, as it was hardly a “world” war — it was a war between western nations), is still not agreed upon. The Financial Times reviewer of a recently published book on this subject claimed that over 23,000 articles, books and treatises relating thereto have been released.
This whole thing does not make sense AT ALL... Syria just collapse like a house of cards... The people involved need to find out honestly where they failed... this goes for obviously Asad, his military, Russia and Iran... its no help to find the truth to blame others... each party will have to look at where they failed... how could that happen or why did it happen, espedially Russia and Iran need to do so, and then clean up the areas that failed and put in policy so it does NOT happen again. When such happens the only smart thing is to learn from it and make sure it does not happen again.
Maybe I’m missing something but it seems pretty simplistic to lay this on Russia. It appears to me that Putin is trying to “make Russia great again” and selling Russians dying when Syrians don’t want to doesn’t seem like a great strategy.
I do not think Putin is trying to make Russia great again...as you seem to suggest.
I think Russia is defending itself.
The explicitly stated goals of the US and its NATO dependents is to
1. weaken Russia
2. effect regime change in Russia
3. appropriate the resources of the remnants of Russia once it is dismantled and permanently weak.
Russia is trying to maintain a separation from the US and an Offensive (in both senses of the word) NATO, who have the means to destroy Russia, especially if they have strike capacity that is so physically close to Russia and especially its largest cities, that it eliminates Russia's ability to determine if it is an existential threat before responding.
After all, the only power on Earth with experience of a First Strike Nuclear attack is the USA and the US and its allies, which have the most experience performing Preventative Defensive Attacks (aka Preemptive Military Strikes).
you have obviously not been following things with your eyes open. This is completely the fault of Putin, and I'm a Putin groupie. I love the guy. But this is because Syria was not cleaned up. Becuase Putin wanted Turnkey to be his business partner. Like everyone who thinks that Zionism isn't the biggest problem in the US and they say ' oh it will probably not go away in our lifetime ' What fools. Imagine the Greater Israel. Taking over the Ukraine as well....my God. Zionism = Satanism
Russia could have stopped Israhell airstrikes on Syria, and Lebanon for that matter, which would have blocked this play and enforced concessions from Israhell (not bloody likely, I know), and been moving to return northeast Syria to Damascus control.
Putin's existential mistake is believing that rational humanity can coexist with the proponents of the devil.
So cleaning up Syria was Putin’s job? I obviously don’t have your knowledge of geopolitics but I can read a map. Russia has a lot more to benefit from keeping a working relationship with Turkey than Syria if that’s the choice. I suspect Putin is well aware of Erdogan’s snake like behavior. I’m looking at the situation pragmatically. I don’t have an emotional attachment to either Putin or the Syrian situation.
When it came to dealing with Idlib, yes it was Russia's job along with the others that signed the agreement. The policy failed to not make Turkey do its part as Erdogan clearly had other ideas that have now materialized.
I accept that in principle. In actuality I suspect Putin has “slammed the table” after talking with Erdogun several times. The guy is a snake but knows how to play poker.
Thank you for this response. I’m still unclear what it is she thinks should have been done and it doesn’t change the fact that things are where they are. Is the thought now that Russia and Iran should send forces to prop up Assad again ? It’s clear now he couldn’t keep things functioning.
I have no answers currently. Assad remains head of the internationally recognized, legitimate government. The use of the euphemistic term "rebels" must cease and their proper description as Terrorists must reign. That was a big point made by Lavrov at Doha with Al-Jazerra who insists on using the euphemism, which is indicative of where Qatar sits in this war.
It appears Syrian command and soldiers quit the fight. It appears Iran told Assad not long ago that Iranian assistance is tailing off. It appears Russians are not in a panic. Turkey, Iran, and Russia talk in Doha. More is here than meets the prints. Patience is needed.
The Assad regime has a long history of duplicity with most everyone. That evil people -- Obama, Clinton minions -- want Assad does not make him a saint. Russia does not lose when she calculates that her national safety is targeted.
Gloating in New York, Washington, London, Kiev, and Tel Aviv is not a sign that things are well for them, with them. Because it is blinding, gloating is, in fact, a precursor of immanent and imminent disaster.
Maybe some generals were paid off. Also they had no defense at all against these new Ukrainian drones, so they kept falling back to new positions. They fought very hard and even on the last day took back many towns. Also a lot of people in Aleppo are pro-rebel and kept letting them into their towns.
First three paragraphs are absolute crap. Assad has been pardoning rebels for a long time. He cut surrender deals with rebels everywhere and kept shipping them to Idlib. And brutalizers do not always lose.
Turn yourself in and you’re good to go. However he turned many of them into state forces under SAA command. They fought very well. They were already fighting anyway. He did great things for the Kurds. He even cut a long term peace deal with Idlib.
Indeed, but he kept the good will of neither his countrymen nor salient forces in the neighborhood. Not that he could have. The man was thrust into a job he did not want and was by personal nature unable to conduct -- statecraft. Russians gave him humanitarian comfort because that's what they do when the person is not hostile to them. It's both a Christian and a Moslem duty -- when the person is not hostile to the giver.
Didn't keep the good will. A lot of those people were hopeless and he had so many amnesties and reconciliations. Kept shipping them all to Idlib. The opposition is Al Qaeda and people who support Al Qaeda. How you going to keep goodwill with them?
I think he enjoyed being President. If not he would have left.
Thanks, I take your point. I just think it's, while not inaccurate, superficial. The man was not / is not to the manner of a stateman born. He refused wise counsel of true statesmen. He hurt his people in consequence. They had enough. They're getting much more than enough now, and just the start, in consequence of their own enmity for the family who abused them for many decades. Patience is strength. Aggression is weakness. Revenge is suicide.
Concise and spot-on, Karl. I thought the US pirate base or other targets in Idlib would've been a perfect oreshnik demo. In this fiasco, Erdogan snickers under his Snidely Whiplash mustache and.Putin appears maddeningly naïve... again. Christ almighty, do he and Xi not yet fully comprehend that Russia and China are ultimate targets of destruction? This failure is so baffling and incompetent that conspiratorial paranoia begins to creep in. Indeed, Netanyahoo seems to possess Yahweh's demonic power over all goyim everywhere. Disheartened and disgusted.
Too many civilians for an Oreshnik or other mass missile attack, unfortunately. That SOP of hiding within civilians pays off for Terrorists and Zionists in relation to someone like Putin who's averse to generating massive civilian casualties. Yes, I echo your closing sentiments.
Very unfair to lay this at Russia's door. In case we need reminding, the real target of the Western Empire is Russia. If Putin had the choice between sending more forces, getting dragged into this conflict, one in which a 200,000 man army had already collapsed (that's the Syrian Army), losing a base OR saving Russia, which should he choose?
Syria is a country of 20 million and has been attacked, sanctioned and starved for 13 years by the US and its allies. The attrition has taken its toll.
Russia has a population of 150 million - just because Russians rightly pride themselves on never losing a war, does that mean they will never lose?
Look at the odds against Russia - Iran, who reportedly refused to send troops to help Assad, now has a pro-western president who wants a deal with the US; China will continue to watch and do nothing - As Alexander III famously said: "Russia has just two allies, the armed forces and the navy."
NATO is in Russia - in Kursk and the Ukraine war is far from over.
The main beneficiaries of the Syrian disaster are Israel, the US and Turkey. Erdogan controls the Black Sea and Turkey is a member of NATO - should Russia start a war with Turkey?
This is a small part of World War III - it's going to be a long war. Without Russia, we are all lost.
I find no fault with your reasoning. My main point is Russian policy ought to have prevented this outcome by being much more proactive in 2020-21 and could have continued from 2022-24 as it didn't need to provide extra military forces as it merely needed to exercise what it had to get Turkey to move and not get more ambitious.
What does this all say to the Global Majority for Russia to be seen as favoring business with Turkey over its security commitment to Syria? How much trust has Russia lost with this event?
The time for fighting was 2018 to 20 when Russia had options to take Syria into Idlib but was coerced or refrained to take out al Nusra (Qaeda)..
The collapse of Syrian Arab Army seems to be from economic harms, neglect and a maybe a big bribe. Syria was/is a failed state! Mostly work of USA.
Russian intel likely understood the correlation of forces and pulling out of a very difficult operational situation (massive US and Israel airpower in region) the least bad choice.
The logistics burdens much less the required forces do not imply Russia should be tied down in Syria.
Reports of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian military assets may show this is not a refined al Nusra.....
In any case what has the Ugly American bought?
Is Assad Diem w/o the assassination?
Assad is Assad. I still see this as a big loss for Humanity and for Russia's credibility as an ally.
This event is shameful!
The egregious display of inhumanity and disregard for moral norms displayed by the U.S. should be evident to the free world, of which U.S. and it vassals are not members.
As if the U.S.’ Wahabbi are changed.
Agreed and might I add: In the balancing acts of diplomacy and military security, Turkey under the fanatical pan Turkic dreams of the ruling Turkish Grey Wolf fascists represents a serious threat to Russia and many of the Stans across the southern belly of Russia. This is a vulnerability that needs mighty careful management for Russia.
Erdogan used his dodgy alliance with Russia and carried a big stick of Syrian betrayal openly in his hand over the past decades while he progressed this threat thousands of kilometers to the east. Now that Syria club is gone - played out and Russia has a new diplomatic, economic, power slant to its discussions with many of the Turkic peoples across its southern neighbours/partners. That dynamic has changed.
I constantly challenge the mindset of the Crusader, the enlightened brigade rushing forth to save the day that is constantly shoved into my eyes and ears from the first day at church Sunday school right through to today. I put it on park and now listen carefully to more inclusive histories and observe the intellectual heritage of a century or two of diplomatic development applied by Russia and China to the mad, genocidal bastards of the west. Initially I leapt for the imagined cure of a victorious SAA/Russian/Iranian counter punch. The programmed desire for immediacy etc, etc. And then I recalled all the original weary talk in 2022 Ukraine about GREAT RED ARROWS on maps and remembered - Russia and China and Iran dont do this no more as it leads to great pain more often than it succeeds.
Let us be patient and park the blame game in our pocket and imagine Trump being at all capable of getting away from the West Asian tar baby and not losing his shirt. He has form when it comes to bankruptcy. There is a real possibility that by building terrorist hordes one can gain some small advantage, but enabling said hordes to bloat their chauvinism and take control of a strategically significant nation at the node of a emergent trade route in the Middle East and smack bang across the belt and road from Gulf of Hormuz to the Mediterranean could have unforeseen consequences.
More will emerge today and tomorrow from the fog. Marat Khairullen’s essay will lead the way.
It’s no good.
And buying F16s was a long-term commitment from Erdogan.
Agreed. We need to look both ways. To be Russian fan boys would make us the opposite version of the Western propagandists we point out. Russia may have a lot on its plate, but it still fucked up.
At this point it seems very premature, and perhaps incorrect to lay the lion's share of blame on Russia for the Syrian Govt. not having their Army do anything other than retreat and then change to civilian clothes once in Damascus (which is what I hear has happened).
If you have not seen this interview by Rachel Blevins of Kevork Almassian, you might find it worthwhile.
https://rachelblevins.substack.com/p/the-axis-of-resistance-is-over-syria
I've been watching Kevork and will watch this too...but he's pretty hopeless for the past days - this is a good interview - with Dimitri Orlov - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4Moq4lPh4s
Thank you for the link.
I feared the worst after listening to Kevork Almassian's interview with The Gaggle, and the feeling of doom settled on me even more after listening to Pepe Escobar's interview by Nima.
Almassian said something I might have dismissed as paranoia a couple of years ago but that the Ukraine war made me more receptive to, which boils down to the idea we're witnessing a global war between good and evil. He said that Canadian NGOs are offering to resettle Christians from Aleppo in Canada, not with refugee status but as residents; and he believes that Israel, with the complicity of the West, wants to wipe out all vestiges of Christianity's Levantine origins. He knows how crazy this sounds and I agree; at the same time, I've learned never to say never with these evil ghouls as they wreak untold havoc on the world.
Well, the G v E explanation has existed for centuries, and deserves much greater treatment than a short reply.
Could not agree more. Many factors at play here and quite a few misjudgments. There is important context, too, in Syria, Russia, Iran and Lebanon--what the Soviets would call the correlation of forces. In Syria itself the backdrop was the crushing of the Syrian economy by the Caesar sanctions and the theft of Syria's oil and wheat. It is easy to underestimate the power, persistence and viciousness of The Empire. Understand you are dealing with the Devil (metaphorically)--the first step to victory.
No, tis the literal devil. He lives round the globe, she has names and numbers, he is a shape shifter with her many genders, the dammm devil is real
I refuse to lend my energy to your imaginary enemies. However, I do see how the plan for Armageddon is being followed like a blueprint.
https://francesleader.substack.com/p/the-mother-of-all-false-flag-events
FWIW, I don't think either crushing of the economy, nor the brutality of war, can explain it. There are counterexamples to that, in Yemen, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc
Looks more and more like Putin pulled the plug. Looks more and more like the problem was not that the SAA wouldn't fight, but that they were told not to fight. Looks like Turkey, Russia and Iran made a deal. What the quid quo pro was, don't know. Assad was called to Moscow just before the offensive. Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall.
They may have made a deal to salvage the situation. E.g. Russia keeping Tartus and Latakia sea/air bases for some totally unpredictable period of time (ie until the next time Erdogan sees an opportunity, or until one of his countless enemies whack him), in exchange for Russia helping Turkey today getting a bigger slice of the Syrian carcass than would be the case without Russia's cooperation. What Turkey could offer Iran, I'm not sure. Turkey certainly isn't doing squat in regard to Israel, other than empty rhetoric.
So apart from practicalities of getting from point A to point B, the way it turned out is overall, is not in Russia's favor. And especially not in Iran's favor. And of the many things Turkey could conceivably promise to Russia, the everlasting problem is Erdogan's total lack of trustworthiness. He's not only screwed Russia in the past, in Syria, but he just this past month offered the US (i.e. incoming Trump admin) a potential deal in which he'd shut down the Russian S-400's he bought, in exchange for getting back into the F-35 program. From which he obviously just wants tech -- Turkey now has an indigenous aerospace industry and fledgling domestic fighter jet industry - he isn't dumb enough to fall for Lockheed's bullsh#t. Point being tho, that Erdogan is visibly not on Russia's side. His deal here, I'd say, was with Israel, as can be seen via the HTS dude's repeated assurances and proclamations of friendship to the genocidal Israeli state next door.
The Gulf monarchies are also in the picture, as the traditional deadlock of pipeline politics is that no major oil producer may ever have a stable land route to Europe...
thanks karl.. i don't know that i agree with you... this interventionist attitude has to stop at some point... blaming russia for it seems off to me... i would blame the interventionists myself... i know your heart is in the right place..
I 100% agree with this. Its so tragic. All for the sake of business. Pipeline through Turkey Putin already made this mistake thinking Russia could join NATO when he first came to power....and I remember him chumming up with the idiot son of the Bush family. that was embarrassing to watch. I wasn't clued in any better than Putin at the time but watching those old documentaries - its sickening how much he tried to be part of the club. And it lingers on. Now I wonder about Iran. Has the new president really betrayed the Resistance. Syrian Girl said the Resistance is over now. They lst so many. But this is a war that cannot be lost. If the Great Israel comes into existence...this planet is going the same way as Mars did. Now supposedly the spiritual environemnt of Mars is extremely warlike. For any who might be interested in the work of Rudolf Steiner.
Iran reportedly offered to intervene, but asked something (unspecified) from Assad to help out (perhaps cracking down on the internal power structure in the SAA, which betrayed equally as much as Turkey did), which Assad apparently had trouble with
Martyanov is going off at Arab generals and the soldiers generally, making them the scapegoat. IMO, he again paints with a brush far too wide, which is his #1 fault. I intend to listen to the Monday shows very intently. It was suggested somewhere that Russia is shortening its lines by abandoning Syria. I wonder how Lavrov feels after all his efforts in Doha? IMO, he's too loyal to resign in protest, nor do we know how much he advocated for policy change related to Idlib, Turkey and its terrorists. There seems to be a lot of fog everywhere but where it usually is here on the Oregon coast.
Yeah Martyanov loves to say how stupid everyone else is. Which may often be true, but becomes very tedious.
I'm sure Lavrov isn't happy, Erdogan basically just extorted some concessions out of Russia, it looks like, in exchange for Tartus and Latakia. On the other hand, it's clear that RF is prioritizing Ukraine - and I don't think this decision is hard to justify to anyone. I'm curious about Iran's angle myself tho. Repeating smth another observer made, but they have every reason in the world to develop nuclear capability ASAP now.
Assad was trying that rapproachment with Saudi and gulf states and part of the deal was no Iran in Syria so there were hardly any Iranians in Syria - and the Syrian army was caput - 1991 bitchute posted a video found by a Russian soldier in Syria of all sorts of body armour and guns in a pile that was left by the Syrian army. Generals were only getting $45 a month. The Cesaer Sanctions worked and US got its dream
Assad must go.
Steiner rules. Steiner rules in Goetheanum.
At some point the balancing act has to become intolerable for Russia as it is continuously betrayed and stabbed in the back.
It will be very interesting to see how Russia responds to both Turkey and Israel in both the short term and the long term.
There's speculation everywhere that's all over the place, Putin made a deal with Trump, Syria for Ukraine, but this makes no sense whatsoever as Putin/Russia have won Ukraine regardless of what happens elsewhere. I believe that Pes of Iran is a total loser, Iran should've retaliated long ago like they said they would, total destruction of one airbase would've taught Israel a lesson, if not a 2nd would've for sure.
The resistance acts as if they're afraid of war, the very war being pursued on them as we contemplate all of this, they the resistance have to snap out of the denial they are currently in, for the double down empire will just keep on doubling down until the end of it.
No one gives up power just cuz you ask nicely, especially the powers of the USUKIS axis of evil
Trump is as bad as any US negotiator! Agreements do not stand!
He was impeached for talking about slowing a billion bucks to Kiev while the black budget for Kiev was flowing huge!
Everyone made a deal with everyone, but it's the kind of deal that will be broken by most if not all sides
While we can feel like this is a huge defeat, it's going to be rammed down our throats. Here in the West our lying traitorous politicians will get in on the gloating act. Claiming a victory for themselves. I get the big feeling this isn't over by a long shot. I will say this though, are the Chinese that naive or even cowardly, that they think everything will all work out for the best in the end. If we sit & do nothing. It's becoming g very apparent China has the wealth now to drive BRICS forward. But have they actually got the stomach for what they're going to face? Do they not realise every little globalist victory is a set back for they themselves? Do they not realise every 1 less problem for the globalists, is going to bring the globalists nearer to their border? More confident in themselves China won't dare stop them? Their weakness is showing a massive invitation sign to the globalists. An invitation to do what they want to harm China & expect no push back.
Thankfully the continuity of Chinese history gives great comfort to those of us who have followed its development the thirty years. You’re welcome to your own private nightmares, but China has managed to survive and flourish even in the face of continuous claims of incompetence, corruption, and cowardice since the time of Mao.
This is mind boggling, considering the stakes.
How did Russian intel not see this coming? Or, did they see it and decide to let it run its course?
If the later, what could be the underlying motivation?
I have similar questions.
There is no way they did not see this. So before we leap to confusion we must consider what else Russia can see and what other factors inform their calculus. I can only imagine some of them and have expressed those views elsewhere on this thread. I suggest absolute winning in Ukraine is paramount. IMO it is more important to tangle the hegemon now than it is to prick its toes. I recall the hegemon actually built the Taliban then was defeated trying to war with them and then US disgrace with their retreat from Kabul. The Russian diplomacy right now with that government is progressing well enough.
While the exchange of facts, points of view, and even baseless opinions has potential value, even the best substacks risk devolving into groups of “armchair athletes” exhorting their teams and crushed r exhilarated by failed blocked punts.
The idea that Russia has less information, insight and executive capability than the collective posters here is absurd on the face of it.
The idea that there can be anything other than imperfect understanding of geopolitical events as they occur in real-time is imho equally fallacious.
Some people here may not realize that the origins of the most transformative geopolitical event of the twentieth century, World War I (I accept the nomenclature from usage, not fact, as it was hardly a “world” war — it was a war between western nations), is still not agreed upon. The Financial Times reviewer of a recently published book on this subject claimed that over 23,000 articles, books and treatises relating thereto have been released.
Your comment is lucid and appreciated.
I'm not sure how much of a "failure" this is. Reports from Russians in country have not been exactly favorable during the last year.
Colonelcassad
The leaders of the armed Syrian opposition guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria.
150.9Kviews
Boris Rozhin
,
12:17
Those reports ought to have sparked change in policy but didn't.
probably so. This information comes from my Russian wife and her sister. They know a few people there.
This whole thing does not make sense AT ALL... Syria just collapse like a house of cards... The people involved need to find out honestly where they failed... this goes for obviously Asad, his military, Russia and Iran... its no help to find the truth to blame others... each party will have to look at where they failed... how could that happen or why did it happen, espedially Russia and Iran need to do so, and then clean up the areas that failed and put in policy so it does NOT happen again. When such happens the only smart thing is to learn from it and make sure it does not happen again.
I saw this after I wrote. Syria Girl has cred, https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1865305305737007418.html
Maybe I’m missing something but it seems pretty simplistic to lay this on Russia. It appears to me that Putin is trying to “make Russia great again” and selling Russians dying when Syrians don’t want to doesn’t seem like a great strategy.
I do not think Putin is trying to make Russia great again...as you seem to suggest.
I think Russia is defending itself.
The explicitly stated goals of the US and its NATO dependents is to
1. weaken Russia
2. effect regime change in Russia
3. appropriate the resources of the remnants of Russia once it is dismantled and permanently weak.
Russia is trying to maintain a separation from the US and an Offensive (in both senses of the word) NATO, who have the means to destroy Russia, especially if they have strike capacity that is so physically close to Russia and especially its largest cities, that it eliminates Russia's ability to determine if it is an existential threat before responding.
After all, the only power on Earth with experience of a First Strike Nuclear attack is the USA and the US and its allies, which have the most experience performing Preventative Defensive Attacks (aka Preemptive Military Strikes).
Yes, Russia's version of Peace via Strength. Your comment merits a deeper reply than I have time for at the moment.
you have obviously not been following things with your eyes open. This is completely the fault of Putin, and I'm a Putin groupie. I love the guy. But this is because Syria was not cleaned up. Becuase Putin wanted Turnkey to be his business partner. Like everyone who thinks that Zionism isn't the biggest problem in the US and they say ' oh it will probably not go away in our lifetime ' What fools. Imagine the Greater Israel. Taking over the Ukraine as well....my God. Zionism = Satanism
Got to agree.
Russia could have stopped Israhell airstrikes on Syria, and Lebanon for that matter, which would have blocked this play and enforced concessions from Israhell (not bloody likely, I know), and been moving to return northeast Syria to Damascus control.
Putin's existential mistake is believing that rational humanity can coexist with the proponents of the devil.
So cleaning up Syria was Putin’s job? I obviously don’t have your knowledge of geopolitics but I can read a map. Russia has a lot more to benefit from keeping a working relationship with Turkey than Syria if that’s the choice. I suspect Putin is well aware of Erdogan’s snake like behavior. I’m looking at the situation pragmatically. I don’t have an emotional attachment to either Putin or the Syrian situation.
When it came to dealing with Idlib, yes it was Russia's job along with the others that signed the agreement. The policy failed to not make Turkey do its part as Erdogan clearly had other ideas that have now materialized.
I accept that in principle. In actuality I suspect Putin has “slammed the table” after talking with Erdogun several times. The guy is a snake but knows how to play poker.
Syria Girt Tweet Thread, https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1865305305737007418.html
Thank you for this response. I’m still unclear what it is she thinks should have been done and it doesn’t change the fact that things are where they are. Is the thought now that Russia and Iran should send forces to prop up Assad again ? It’s clear now he couldn’t keep things functioning.
I have no answers currently. Assad remains head of the internationally recognized, legitimate government. The use of the euphemistic term "rebels" must cease and their proper description as Terrorists must reign. That was a big point made by Lavrov at Doha with Al-Jazerra who insists on using the euphemism, which is indicative of where Qatar sits in this war.
It appears Syrian command and soldiers quit the fight. It appears Iran told Assad not long ago that Iranian assistance is tailing off. It appears Russians are not in a panic. Turkey, Iran, and Russia talk in Doha. More is here than meets the prints. Patience is needed.
The Assad regime has a long history of duplicity with most everyone. That evil people -- Obama, Clinton minions -- want Assad does not make him a saint. Russia does not lose when she calculates that her national safety is targeted.
Gloating in New York, Washington, London, Kiev, and Tel Aviv is not a sign that things are well for them, with them. Because it is blinding, gloating is, in fact, a precursor of immanent and imminent disaster.
Maybe some generals were paid off. Also they had no defense at all against these new Ukrainian drones, so they kept falling back to new positions. They fought very hard and even on the last day took back many towns. Also a lot of people in Aleppo are pro-rebel and kept letting them into their towns.
It was always a choice between Assad and Al Qaeda and ISIS. I picked Assad.
Soldiers were ordered to withdraw.
Compare Marat Khairulin:
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/lessons-from-syria-assad-and-putin
First three paragraphs are absolute crap. Assad has been pardoning rebels for a long time. He cut surrender deals with rebels everywhere and kept shipping them to Idlib. And brutalizers do not always lose.
Turn yourself in and you’re good to go. However he turned many of them into state forces under SAA command. They fought very well. They were already fighting anyway. He did great things for the Kurds. He even cut a long term peace deal with Idlib.
Indeed, but he kept the good will of neither his countrymen nor salient forces in the neighborhood. Not that he could have. The man was thrust into a job he did not want and was by personal nature unable to conduct -- statecraft. Russians gave him humanitarian comfort because that's what they do when the person is not hostile to them. It's both a Christian and a Moslem duty -- when the person is not hostile to the giver.
Didn't keep the good will. A lot of those people were hopeless and he had so many amnesties and reconciliations. Kept shipping them all to Idlib. The opposition is Al Qaeda and people who support Al Qaeda. How you going to keep goodwill with them?
I think he enjoyed being President. If not he would have left.
Thanks, I take your point. I just think it's, while not inaccurate, superficial. The man was not / is not to the manner of a stateman born. He refused wise counsel of true statesmen. He hurt his people in consequence. They had enough. They're getting much more than enough now, and just the start, in consequence of their own enmity for the family who abused them for many decades. Patience is strength. Aggression is weakness. Revenge is suicide.
Soldiers were given orders to retreat.
I am finishing writing an article on Syria. It should be out soon, hopefully within the next hour.
Here is my article: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-meaning-of-the-fall-of-damascus
Concise and spot-on, Karl. I thought the US pirate base or other targets in Idlib would've been a perfect oreshnik demo. In this fiasco, Erdogan snickers under his Snidely Whiplash mustache and.Putin appears maddeningly naïve... again. Christ almighty, do he and Xi not yet fully comprehend that Russia and China are ultimate targets of destruction? This failure is so baffling and incompetent that conspiratorial paranoia begins to creep in. Indeed, Netanyahoo seems to possess Yahweh's demonic power over all goyim everywhere. Disheartened and disgusted.
Too many civilians for an Oreshnik or other mass missile attack, unfortunately. That SOP of hiding within civilians pays off for Terrorists and Zionists in relation to someone like Putin who's averse to generating massive civilian casualties. Yes, I echo your closing sentiments.