Thank you Karl for another probing, informative and timely account of the three party dynamics — it seems that the average person in Taiwan is opposed to violence which, of course, is the dream of the US. It will be inordinately fascinating to see the evolving response of China. Apart from its vaunted patience which you refer to in your opening, China doubtless is planning a few incisions with its extremely precise scalpel set.
One thought that comes to mind is to begin to release selected deposits on Boeing’s 737 Max line (I think China’s airlines in toto constitute the largest single customer in the Max’s order book). It would be easy for these airlines to argue that the latest Alaska Air Max9 debacle shows that the ongoing technical weaknesses in this platform preclude expanding exposure. After all, China was the first country to ground the original Max after two major crashes (2019). After the Xi-Biden meeting in November, certain Chinese airlines appeared to be ready to restart deliveries. But a reversal or withdrawal would send an obvious message. Boeing is a huge military contractor so buying their commercial craft is paradoxical.
In any event, there is a tangible possibility that the US could, at some point, block Boeing’s contracts (service, spare parts, warranties etc) with Chinese airlines, much as it did with the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML.
Schopenhauer was forthright and deadly accurate in his assessment: “they are the slime of the earth and the masters of lying”. The “they” are the proto-neocons, the small tribe that runs the White House today — if not, in fact, all facets of corporate, government and institutional life in the US.
Thanks — I don’t read the GT, perhaps I should. I’m embarrassed to say that I’m a long time reader of the FT (due to my career) but my increasing exasperation with its one-sided journalism is reaching limits.
Thanks for letting us know about this, Karl. I hope people in Taiwan take a look at how well 'help' from the USA served Ukrainians, and act accordingly.
It might 'favour' them but it won't help them win. The third party the KMT could not secure on a joint ticket will block them from beating the DPP. The corrupt US election interference system is already operating across Taiwan backrooms and the Media to ensure the DPP win. Obviously.
And if by some egregious mistake the KMT candidate does win on the night, there will immediately be massive street protests followed by a US arranged Coup. Obviously.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the issue of Taiwan's "independance", the USA is clearly renaging on the decades' old policy of "One China". The pivot here started in 2016 when the outsider Trump identified China as the major rival to the USA. He was mocked at the time but this is now the mainstream narrative. However if you were China you would look at this 180 degree turn in policy and ask yourself how can you deal with such fickleness from a bad faith actor? Well the answer appears to be emerging.
US foreign policy has been a strategic disaster. It has bound together its main geo-political rivals China and Russia, strengthened BRICs, weaked its allies and alienated the muslim world and most of the oil producers. The petrodollar is dying. None of this needed to happen. It would have been easy in say 1999 to create a pro-Western and anti-China ally of Russia. But like a spoilt and petulant child, the USA does its own thing. The rules based order is a narrative which really means playground bullying on a global scale.
We are cursed to live in interesting times. It is like having a ringside seat at the fall of the Roman Empire. Or maybe these people know more than me? I think the results speak for themselves. The west is poorly served by iit leaders, but alas I have to conclude that we get the leaders we deserve. Why think for yourself when you can outsource the effort to a bunch of charlatons and liars?
Thank you Karl for another probing, informative and timely account of the three party dynamics — it seems that the average person in Taiwan is opposed to violence which, of course, is the dream of the US. It will be inordinately fascinating to see the evolving response of China. Apart from its vaunted patience which you refer to in your opening, China doubtless is planning a few incisions with its extremely precise scalpel set.
One thought that comes to mind is to begin to release selected deposits on Boeing’s 737 Max line (I think China’s airlines in toto constitute the largest single customer in the Max’s order book). It would be easy for these airlines to argue that the latest Alaska Air Max9 debacle shows that the ongoing technical weaknesses in this platform preclude expanding exposure. After all, China was the first country to ground the original Max after two major crashes (2019). After the Xi-Biden meeting in November, certain Chinese airlines appeared to be ready to restart deliveries. But a reversal or withdrawal would send an obvious message. Boeing is a huge military contractor so buying their commercial craft is paradoxical.
In any event, there is a tangible possibility that the US could, at some point, block Boeing’s contracts (service, spare parts, warranties etc) with Chinese airlines, much as it did with the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML.
Schopenhauer was forthright and deadly accurate in his assessment: “they are the slime of the earth and the masters of lying”. The “they” are the proto-neocons, the small tribe that runs the White House today — if not, in fact, all facets of corporate, government and institutional life in the US.
I didn't provide the Global Times op/ed about the Boeing and related manufacturers that are having hard times that provides China with even more leverage, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1304945.shtml
Thanks — I don’t read the GT, perhaps I should. I’m embarrassed to say that I’m a long time reader of the FT (due to my career) but my increasing exasperation with its one-sided journalism is reaching limits.
Thanks for letting us know about this, Karl. I hope people in Taiwan take a look at how well 'help' from the USA served Ukrainians, and act accordingly.
Yes, the election will prove pivotal either way. Note the potential vote dividing billionaire dropped out, which IMO favors the KMT candidate.
It might 'favour' them but it won't help them win. The third party the KMT could not secure on a joint ticket will block them from beating the DPP. The corrupt US election interference system is already operating across Taiwan backrooms and the Media to ensure the DPP win. Obviously.
And if by some egregious mistake the KMT candidate does win on the night, there will immediately be massive street protests followed by a US arranged Coup. Obviously.
This is a 'pantomime' event.
Time will reveal the outcome soon enough.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the issue of Taiwan's "independance", the USA is clearly renaging on the decades' old policy of "One China". The pivot here started in 2016 when the outsider Trump identified China as the major rival to the USA. He was mocked at the time but this is now the mainstream narrative. However if you were China you would look at this 180 degree turn in policy and ask yourself how can you deal with such fickleness from a bad faith actor? Well the answer appears to be emerging.
US foreign policy has been a strategic disaster. It has bound together its main geo-political rivals China and Russia, strengthened BRICs, weaked its allies and alienated the muslim world and most of the oil producers. The petrodollar is dying. None of this needed to happen. It would have been easy in say 1999 to create a pro-Western and anti-China ally of Russia. But like a spoilt and petulant child, the USA does its own thing. The rules based order is a narrative which really means playground bullying on a global scale.
We are cursed to live in interesting times. It is like having a ringside seat at the fall of the Roman Empire. Or maybe these people know more than me? I think the results speak for themselves. The west is poorly served by iit leaders, but alas I have to conclude that we get the leaders we deserve. Why think for yourself when you can outsource the effort to a bunch of charlatons and liars?