Good developments, but is Trump really going to accept Putin's conditions? After all, it is Putin who is winning in Ukraine. So, either Trump accepts his conditions, or he will see Russia's victory over NATO in Ukraine, though Trump may pass the hot potato to UK + EU and disengage the US from a war that NATO has already lost. Check out recent statements by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Maria Zakharova's response: https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/9809
Russia clearly sees its adversaries as UK/US not so much EU. Note how the most vocal, outrageous Russophobes are from very small nations with almost no military. IMO, what’s acceptable isn’t up to Trump, although he may surprise us all. Problem is he keeps talking up his attempt at Fantasy Island in Palestine which is not just improbable but impossible. Plus, there’s no way Trump can guarantee anything he signs as it will need to be ratified by the Senate and risks being Trumped by the any following administration.
Trump must stop all sanctions, restore all RF funds frozen since three years and allow free exchange on the international monetary exchange, IOW end the economic war against RF.
Alex Krainer has written about a "grand bargain". My comment is around "not agreement capable", and it's the US side that needs to make real and lasting concessions to achieve trust. In my lifetime, probably not. Anyway, there's a difference between hope and hopium.
Krainer’s idea was akin to a Yalta 2.0 IIRC. The Empire must be shrunken for fiscal needs as it’s no longer affordable. And along with those savings, Trump must raise revenues or else the ongoing debt multiplier will be the wrecking ball.
It's all too late given the inertia that built up over the last hundred plus years; Trump is no McKinley, but unless he takes real action to clean up the deep state which includes prosecution for treason with the appropriate penalty still in place it's a non starter.
Treason’s a toughie to prove since the definition’s so narrow as described in the Constitution. Stripping 100% of their assets is a real possibility, however.
I'm so enjoying the strange mirth of an emotion since I observed the faces at the top table in Brussels during Hesketh's speech .... and I'm kind if chuckling ever since - pure gold.
All I can say is that when two forces collide then an agreed 'definition of the situation' is the starting point to any substantive discussion with a real possibility of finding an agreed solution to whatever ails them.
Acknowledging Hesketh's input, we are still quite a ways from such an agreed definition. Of course, the forces, in this case, are not equal.
The devil is in the details. What will Putin want in exchange for peace. Does Trump understand that he holds the losing hand. The X machine is bragging that now Zelensky will be forced into making peace as if he ever had a choice for this was NATO/US/UK's war all along.
If Putin doesn't require a pullback of NATO along the lines of 1991 he will look silly imho
So while this is a good development it is but the opening move
I stated yesterday at Martyanov’s how I’d perform in Kellogg’s place—first time any of my comments were promoted to the head of the comment queue. I know what Russia’s position is and the mood of the governing class. The very oddly phrased deal with 1997 NATO in the December 2021 proposals IMO was replaced with the Eurasian Security Structure ideal that eliminates NATO as it currently stands. Russia has publicly stated many times what’s Nyet, so we know what won’t be acceptable, and we know what the oft stated coals of the SMO are.
There is also one other noteworthy fact that isn't being stated by anyone. Trump making peace with Russia opens the floodgates of war against the R's real enemy, China. My guess is that this is what they want to achieve, a break in the Sino/Russia relationship followed by war w/China, Musk's real enemy
Except there’ll be no break in those relations. Resolution in Ukraine will only make them stronger. And that’s not an easy given. Here’s my reaction to the zaniness at MoA over the news of the phone call:
Wow! Quite a hullaballoo over a phone call. Yeah, my substack note at 12:15 Pacific quickly got 1500 views and a dozen comments, but nothing like this olio with its new batch of fleas. IMO, Trump still has in mind a ceasefire in place that's a Nyet for Russia. What ought to be talked about and arranged by Team Trump is elections within Ukraine as having a legitimate government there is key to any possible negotiated success. So, Kiev is where the action begins. Meanwhile, there'll be a screamfest at Munich. IMO, where the phone call will have the highest impact is within the Ukie portion of the LOC--the nation that threw you into this war is now throwing you under the bus. The Russians just got the signal to turn up the heat and give the Ukies more immediate reasons to surrender.
The truth of the matter is that none of us -- not even the media pundits -- know what end state President Trump is aiming for. Further, the fact of the matter is that very few people in the US actually care about the Ukraine -- any more than they cared about Afghanistan. Hence "Joe Biden" was able to abandon Afghanistan and paid no domestic US price for it. A good guess is that President Trump sees the Ukraine as one of the concessions he can happily make to Russia to get a bigger deal which helps the US in other ways. Only time will tell.
We can also guess that legalistic Russia is likely to want a UN blessing on whatever deal is eventually reached on Rump Ukraine and its boundaries. And the US Administration is likely to want to go along with that, since it would be very difficult for the Democrat Usual Suspects to oppose a deal made at their beloved UN. "International Law", and all that.
The Ds don't have any love for the UN; quite the opposite. As for what Russia wants, it wants a deal that undoes what caused the mess to begin with, and that's NATO. Eliminating NATO is the only path to attaining indivisibility of security, which is Russia's goal and has been since 1975.
Good developments, but is Trump really going to accept Putin's conditions? After all, it is Putin who is winning in Ukraine. So, either Trump accepts his conditions, or he will see Russia's victory over NATO in Ukraine, though Trump may pass the hot potato to UK + EU and disengage the US from a war that NATO has already lost. Check out recent statements by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Maria Zakharova's response: https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/9809
Russia clearly sees its adversaries as UK/US not so much EU. Note how the most vocal, outrageous Russophobes are from very small nations with almost no military. IMO, what’s acceptable isn’t up to Trump, although he may surprise us all. Problem is he keeps talking up his attempt at Fantasy Island in Palestine which is not just improbable but impossible. Plus, there’s no way Trump can guarantee anything he signs as it will need to be ratified by the Senate and risks being Trumped by the any following administration.
Trump must stop all sanctions, restore all RF funds frozen since three years and allow free exchange on the international monetary exchange, IOW end the economic war against RF.
Then talk about moving NATO west of the Rhine.
US is far from trustworthy
How about putting on trial the war criminals, anything less is allowing scum to slink off and plot.
Get the Baltic lands without the mini-me Balties as reparations.
The Baltics are slowly killing themselves by not reproducing, and resource-wise, they’re a sink, not a reservoir.
What pundits . . . The pundits, meh.
Trump and Putin pulled the rug out from underneath Kellogg, since the talk of the big boys has a TBD outcome.
Trump will get an education from Putin if not before. He can start with what Tucker Carlson picked up during Putin's lengthy intro to Russian history.
Time for popcorn. Wish I could say the same about Gaza and the Middle East.
Biden stabbed Europe and Trump will take the knife out of it by twisting it.
Talking and doing are very different tasks.
THE BIG PAYBACK
Trump: US Treasury Secretary must bring back a document from Kiev guaranteeing the return of funds invested in supporting Ukraine.
Now gimme those $500 billion in rare earth metals.
- Pepe Escobar https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/14360
So Ukraine must pay now for an amerikan coup led war, interesting times indeed, I myself would tell Trump NYET. What's he gonna do come get them
Trump wants his cut
Alex Krainer has written about a "grand bargain". My comment is around "not agreement capable", and it's the US side that needs to make real and lasting concessions to achieve trust. In my lifetime, probably not. Anyway, there's a difference between hope and hopium.
Krainer’s idea was akin to a Yalta 2.0 IIRC. The Empire must be shrunken for fiscal needs as it’s no longer affordable. And along with those savings, Trump must raise revenues or else the ongoing debt multiplier will be the wrecking ball.
50c an egg. Inflation >3. 10yr ~4.65
Spose 'it's the economy stupid' as 2014 is Obama's.
The other Anglo-Saxon ain't doin too well either.
The bird flu is decimating hen houses, but not birds grown for meat.
It's all too late given the inertia that built up over the last hundred plus years; Trump is no McKinley, but unless he takes real action to clean up the deep state which includes prosecution for treason with the appropriate penalty still in place it's a non starter.
Treason’s a toughie to prove since the definition’s so narrow as described in the Constitution. Stripping 100% of their assets is a real possibility, however.
Very good news
I'm so enjoying the strange mirth of an emotion since I observed the faces at the top table in Brussels during Hesketh's speech .... and I'm kind if chuckling ever since - pure gold.
All I can say is that when two forces collide then an agreed 'definition of the situation' is the starting point to any substantive discussion with a real possibility of finding an agreed solution to whatever ails them.
Acknowledging Hesketh's input, we are still quite a ways from such an agreed definition. Of course, the forces, in this case, are not equal.
I saw the clip aired during the Judge’s chat with Pepe. More give still required. I found that New Rules podcast with Crooke and Marandi, https://x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/1887535802626023526
The devil is in the details. What will Putin want in exchange for peace. Does Trump understand that he holds the losing hand. The X machine is bragging that now Zelensky will be forced into making peace as if he ever had a choice for this was NATO/US/UK's war all along.
If Putin doesn't require a pullback of NATO along the lines of 1991 he will look silly imho
So while this is a good development it is but the opening move
I stated yesterday at Martyanov’s how I’d perform in Kellogg’s place—first time any of my comments were promoted to the head of the comment queue. I know what Russia’s position is and the mood of the governing class. The very oddly phrased deal with 1997 NATO in the December 2021 proposals IMO was replaced with the Eurasian Security Structure ideal that eliminates NATO as it currently stands. Russia has publicly stated many times what’s Nyet, so we know what won’t be acceptable, and we know what the oft stated coals of the SMO are.
There is also one other noteworthy fact that isn't being stated by anyone. Trump making peace with Russia opens the floodgates of war against the R's real enemy, China. My guess is that this is what they want to achieve, a break in the Sino/Russia relationship followed by war w/China, Musk's real enemy
Except there’ll be no break in those relations. Resolution in Ukraine will only make them stronger. And that’s not an easy given. Here’s my reaction to the zaniness at MoA over the news of the phone call:
Wow! Quite a hullaballoo over a phone call. Yeah, my substack note at 12:15 Pacific quickly got 1500 views and a dozen comments, but nothing like this olio with its new batch of fleas. IMO, Trump still has in mind a ceasefire in place that's a Nyet for Russia. What ought to be talked about and arranged by Team Trump is elections within Ukraine as having a legitimate government there is key to any possible negotiated success. So, Kiev is where the action begins. Meanwhile, there'll be a screamfest at Munich. IMO, where the phone call will have the highest impact is within the Ukie portion of the LOC--the nation that threw you into this war is now throwing you under the bus. The Russians just got the signal to turn up the heat and give the Ukies more immediate reasons to surrender.
sounds positive..thanks karl.. i would like to remain positive in all of this!!
Hmmm...
The truth of the matter is that none of us -- not even the media pundits -- know what end state President Trump is aiming for. Further, the fact of the matter is that very few people in the US actually care about the Ukraine -- any more than they cared about Afghanistan. Hence "Joe Biden" was able to abandon Afghanistan and paid no domestic US price for it. A good guess is that President Trump sees the Ukraine as one of the concessions he can happily make to Russia to get a bigger deal which helps the US in other ways. Only time will tell.
We can also guess that legalistic Russia is likely to want a UN blessing on whatever deal is eventually reached on Rump Ukraine and its boundaries. And the US Administration is likely to want to go along with that, since it would be very difficult for the Democrat Usual Suspects to oppose a deal made at their beloved UN. "International Law", and all that.
The Ds don't have any love for the UN; quite the opposite. As for what Russia wants, it wants a deal that undoes what caused the mess to begin with, and that's NATO. Eliminating NATO is the only path to attaining indivisibility of security, which is Russia's goal and has been since 1975.