Here I sit in the OHSU facility in Portland, Oregon having undergone the operation to defuse my Abdominal Aortic Aneurism Time Bomb unable to access any Russian or Chinese websites because the server used has blocked them; so, it’s difficult to get caught up with events. Fortunately,
Glad to hear you are on the mend and will be home soon. Luttwak is partying like its 1999, but eventually he and the other neocons will wake up with a really bad hangover. Eventually a more "realist" faction will come into the ascendancy, but that could still take some time.
i was surprised by your comment about internet sites being blocked! that kind of shocks me... given that is the case, i was going to share a link to charles eisenstein who is apparently one of the advisors to rfk jr at present.. my brother pointed out to me that he is sitting behind rfk jr at those hearings taking place at present.. maybe you can read him to learn more about one of his advisors.. i think you'll find the article interesting - https://charleseisenstein.substack.com/p/privilege-and-fortune-a-confucian
Thanks for the Punchline link. He doesn't add much to what I know and have written. The "new" arms to Ukraine won't get there anytime soon as they aren't being drawn from active stocks. The naval plot looks like a Plan B until you see who just got named to the post of the USN's Chief of Naval Operations. See Martyanov's about her--yes her--and her "credentials."
The arrests of the false-patriots is fallout from Prigozhin's stunt. My inability to access Russian websites renders me unable to comment on much of what's happened over the last 72 hours. I'll get that access returned sometime tomorrow.
the empire assuring 'freedom of navigation' in the black sea (a russian lake) is different than passing an arleigh burke destroyer through the formosa straits.
against russia, much more concerned about nato meddling in their littoral! the us empire would need to establish an air force and ground based air defense more diverse in capability and throw than 8th air force in britin is ww ii. aegis ashore is a small vulnerable start.
there are not enough structure in rumania and bulgaria for us' high maintenance usaf, us army and usmc air assets. including air fields, petroleum infrastructure and air defense both aerial and surface to air...
usa 'locking up' the black sea would need be a massive land based aerospace investment.
another costly redline to cross at the us' danger.
however, the air dominance possibility in black sea is massively easier than for formosa!
If NATO tries to aid Ukraine defend Odessa, it will be in direct conflict with Russia, which is an outcome it says it doesn't want. Then there's all that infrastructure that's completely lacking and so forth. It's long been known the Empire's troops in Romania wouldn't last much longer that Ukie troops. Again, NATO painted itself into a corner long ago and is reaping the fruits of its folly. As I asked in my closing, which NATO nation is going to step into the meat grinder and for what. The conflict in Europe between Russia and NATO might get frozen but not within Ukraine; Russia will finish its job there. And thinking China is the softer target is daft. The RoW has finally stood up to the geopolitical bully and the bully is learning it can't fight the entire world, or even 85% of it.
i have in mind the usa building up military and air "investment" in eastern balkans similar to germany.
the amount of building will be much more expensive than germany after ww ii because the germans infrastructure was not as damaged as the propaganda about strategic bombing implied. there will be a lot of ne bases!
but it will be at the end of long and cumbersome lines of communication.
usa military industry complex a huge bleed on the country.
why russia will make noise but not interfere with usa mistakes.
thanks ed... i don't know all the in's and out's here.. i just thought it was yet another relevant topic that is complicated.. the way i see it, there will be this continued poking of the bear from this, that and the other way... not sure where the off ramp is for all of this, but it is hard to see at this moment for me anyway..
Excellent essay Karl. I would say a tour de force, but I know you’re just warming up.
I especially agreed with this part: “The main factors impacting the Dollar Bloc will be its vanishing amounts of hydrocarbons, its deindustrialization, and its vast corruption.” The Dollar Bloc’s only significant sources of petroleum that are not in steep decline after 2025 will be Canada and Norway.
If the RoW Block had not been violently kept from developing for the last 100+ years they would be highly developed and consuming most if not all of their resources. The West would not be half of what it is now. The US but particularly EU as they have very little resources of their own.
What is happening now is the RoW, BRICKS+ empowered mainly by Russia and China are developing at break neck speed. They are increasing their consumption by leaps and bounds and have the potential to quickly require all the resources they can get their hands on leaving the West to scramble for scraps and pay much more for whatever they can get.
This, in a nutshell is what all the fracus is about and why the EU countries are going along with all the belligerents. It truly is existential for everyone concerned. This explains US foreign policy and military exploits plus CIA shenanigans have been about, and quite successfully I might add.
According to the patriots themselves or that's your opinion? (I understand the so-called patriots are not a monolithic group but rather a disparate collection of pro-Russian citizens unhappy with how things are being run, so perhaps they might not even agree with each other about who is or is not a patriot!)
so called patriots are likely embedded atlanticists, some are hold overs from anti stalin underground underground, my observation from knowing one set of an emigre married to a us national.
I see. But my understanding is that many are concerned that this is Putin's ultimate goal, to sell out to the West somehow. That's what Strolgov was saying for example, that if he was arrested it would mean the SMO would essentially fail and Putin would do a deal with the West and the oligarchs could go back to business as usual and a free Russia would never be realized. There are probably a zillion different 'dissident' views just as there are in most countries. I'm not wedded to any view; the simple fact is that we don't really know what's going on there and mainly listen to public speeches.
Well, I defer, willingly, to your greater knowledge about these matters and remain hopeful that the Putin-Xi alliance is a benevolent force in geopolitical world destiny as you present so well and often. That said, was a confident cheerleader for many years but after global response to covid I no longer feel that way so am now on the fence pending future developments. Thanks for all your contributions and best of luck with recovery.
Scott Ritter thinks that "Kissinger to China" is a replay of 1970's "Kissinger to China", following as it does Yellen and Blinken. He thinks the real "PTB" sent Kissinger behind Biden's back to try to tone down the neocon rhetoric for the Chinese and that Yellen and Blinken were supposed to do the same, but with less success. We'll see.
Good luck with the surgery. One piece of advice: Trust nothing the doctors tell you. Do your own research. Most doctors are way behind the current medical consensus on things. When I recently had RLS and cramp issues, I had to tell my doctor which medicines to prescribe based on actual studies and they still prescribed the wrong version of it (and then it wasn't approved by the insurance company). Trust no one.
You have a mission, Karl. You'll get through this and thrive. Godspeed!
Glad to hear you are on the mend and will be home soon. Luttwak is partying like its 1999, but eventually he and the other neocons will wake up with a really bad hangover. Eventually a more "realist" faction will come into the ascendancy, but that could still take some time.
i hope you get out of the hospital soon karl... i shared a link to indian punchline.. if you haven't read it, i recommend you do.. here it is again - https://www.indianpunchline.com/storm-clouds-gathering-in-the-black-sea/
Yeah, will be nice to back at my home office where none of my internet sites are blocked.
i was surprised by your comment about internet sites being blocked! that kind of shocks me... given that is the case, i was going to share a link to charles eisenstein who is apparently one of the advisors to rfk jr at present.. my brother pointed out to me that he is sitting behind rfk jr at those hearings taking place at present.. maybe you can read him to learn more about one of his advisors.. i think you'll find the article interesting - https://charleseisenstein.substack.com/p/privilege-and-fortune-a-confucian
Thanks for the Punchline link. He doesn't add much to what I know and have written. The "new" arms to Ukraine won't get there anytime soon as they aren't being drawn from active stocks. The naval plot looks like a Plan B until you see who just got named to the post of the USN's Chief of Naval Operations. See Martyanov's about her--yes her--and her "credentials."
The arrests of the false-patriots is fallout from Prigozhin's stunt. My inability to access Russian websites renders me unable to comment on much of what's happened over the last 72 hours. I'll get that access returned sometime tomorrow.
the empire assuring 'freedom of navigation' in the black sea (a russian lake) is different than passing an arleigh burke destroyer through the formosa straits.
against russia, much more concerned about nato meddling in their littoral! the us empire would need to establish an air force and ground based air defense more diverse in capability and throw than 8th air force in britin is ww ii. aegis ashore is a small vulnerable start.
there are not enough structure in rumania and bulgaria for us' high maintenance usaf, us army and usmc air assets. including air fields, petroleum infrastructure and air defense both aerial and surface to air...
usa 'locking up' the black sea would need be a massive land based aerospace investment.
another costly redline to cross at the us' danger.
however, the air dominance possibility in black sea is massively easier than for formosa!
If NATO tries to aid Ukraine defend Odessa, it will be in direct conflict with Russia, which is an outcome it says it doesn't want. Then there's all that infrastructure that's completely lacking and so forth. It's long been known the Empire's troops in Romania wouldn't last much longer that Ukie troops. Again, NATO painted itself into a corner long ago and is reaping the fruits of its folly. As I asked in my closing, which NATO nation is going to step into the meat grinder and for what. The conflict in Europe between Russia and NATO might get frozen but not within Ukraine; Russia will finish its job there. And thinking China is the softer target is daft. The RoW has finally stood up to the geopolitical bully and the bully is learning it can't fight the entire world, or even 85% of it.
i have in mind the usa building up military and air "investment" in eastern balkans similar to germany.
the amount of building will be much more expensive than germany after ww ii because the germans infrastructure was not as damaged as the propaganda about strategic bombing implied. there will be a lot of ne bases!
but it will be at the end of long and cumbersome lines of communication.
usa military industry complex a huge bleed on the country.
why russia will make noise but not interfere with usa mistakes.
thanks ed... i don't know all the in's and out's here.. i just thought it was yet another relevant topic that is complicated.. the way i see it, there will be this continued poking of the bear from this, that and the other way... not sure where the off ramp is for all of this, but it is hard to see at this moment for me anyway..
Wishing you all the best for a full recovery. I am your neighbour in Southern Oregon and send you all the best!
Excellent essay Karl. I would say a tour de force, but I know you’re just warming up.
I especially agreed with this part: “The main factors impacting the Dollar Bloc will be its vanishing amounts of hydrocarbons, its deindustrialization, and its vast corruption.” The Dollar Bloc’s only significant sources of petroleum that are not in steep decline after 2025 will be Canada and Norway.
And all the best for a speedy and full recovery.
I live in the Gorge. If you live in the Portland area, I'd be interested in actually buying you a beer or whatever you drink sometime.
I live in Yachats on the coast and rather seldom get to the valley and its cities. I plan to be back home Sunday.
If the RoW Block had not been violently kept from developing for the last 100+ years they would be highly developed and consuming most if not all of their resources. The West would not be half of what it is now. The US but particularly EU as they have very little resources of their own.
What is happening now is the RoW, BRICKS+ empowered mainly by Russia and China are developing at break neck speed. They are increasing their consumption by leaps and bounds and have the potential to quickly require all the resources they can get their hands on leaving the West to scramble for scraps and pay much more for whatever they can get.
This, in a nutshell is what all the fracus is about and why the EU countries are going along with all the belligerents. It truly is existential for everyone concerned. This explains US foreign policy and military exploits plus CIA shenanigans have been about, and quite successfully I might add.
Interesting...... replied at MoA in the Something Amiss commentary:
Scorpion | Jul 22 2023 1:07 utc | 205
A lot going on, especially with the spate of patriot arrests in RF....
When closely examined, the arrested aren't patriots at all.
According to the patriots themselves or that's your opinion? (I understand the so-called patriots are not a monolithic group but rather a disparate collection of pro-Russian citizens unhappy with how things are being run, so perhaps they might not even agree with each other about who is or is not a patriot!)
might not agree (cannot edit)
Click the ellipsis dots to the right of reply and you can edit.
so called patriots are likely embedded atlanticists, some are hold overs from anti stalin underground underground, my observation from knowing one set of an emigre married to a us national.
they are lusting for another yeltsin!
I see. But my understanding is that many are concerned that this is Putin's ultimate goal, to sell out to the West somehow. That's what Strolgov was saying for example, that if he was arrested it would mean the SMO would essentially fail and Putin would do a deal with the West and the oligarchs could go back to business as usual and a free Russia would never be realized. There are probably a zillion different 'dissident' views just as there are in most countries. I'm not wedded to any view; the simple fact is that we don't really know what's going on there and mainly listen to public speeches.
Putin vowed to shut the Empire down, to end its hegemony, same with Xi. Those men aren't the types to break those sorts of vows.
Well, I defer, willingly, to your greater knowledge about these matters and remain hopeful that the Putin-Xi alliance is a benevolent force in geopolitical world destiny as you present so well and often. That said, was a confident cheerleader for many years but after global response to covid I no longer feel that way so am now on the fence pending future developments. Thanks for all your contributions and best of luck with recovery.
скорейшего выздоровления and thank you for continuing to teach and inform even in the face of such daunting challenges.
Scott Ritter thinks that "Kissinger to China" is a replay of 1970's "Kissinger to China", following as it does Yellen and Blinken. He thinks the real "PTB" sent Kissinger behind Biden's back to try to tone down the neocon rhetoric for the Chinese and that Yellen and Blinken were supposed to do the same, but with less success. We'll see.
Good luck with the surgery. One piece of advice: Trust nothing the doctors tell you. Do your own research. Most doctors are way behind the current medical consensus on things. When I recently had RLS and cramp issues, I had to tell my doctor which medicines to prescribe based on actual studies and they still prescribed the wrong version of it (and then it wasn't approved by the insurance company). Trust no one.
I trusted the doctors to defuse the bomb; they did, and I'm doing very well. I get discharged tomorrow.
awesome!