Thank you for this post. I appreciate the details and the work required to produce it. It appears that Russia has a longer (20+ years) and more comprehensive planning regime than the west does.
But, I do have a serious concern. Fossil fuel deposits are finite, and while the US and Russia have abundant production of oil and gas, those reserves aren't going to last forever. US oil production is probably near the peak and gas is probably only a decade behind. Russian oil and gas have a few decades on the west before peaking. Both have at least a century, probably more, of coal production.
But, sooner or later, the fossil fuels will run out. And, before that happens, they will run low and start putting strain on the economy. The US has decided to ignore this problem. Do you have any sense of how Russia is approaching it?
Russia’s well aware of depletion as it’s seen it up close. It’s nuclear sector has mastered the fuel cycle with its 4th generation plants—all fuel is used; there’s no waste to store and pose potential problems. Then there’s the fusion front, which is very promising and is being done with China. Russian hydropower still has room to grow. Russia’s power generating and distribution sector is almost 100% publicly owned, which makes planning much easier, and rents are plowed back into improvements and expansion instead of going into shareholder pockets. If you have time, investigate Rosatom for it does much more than just build nuclear plants.
I doubt the finite nature of the worlds resources is new news at that level. The important thing is to ensure alternatives are viable. The incredible waste of human and financial capital on the current dysfunctional "renewable" technology set is perhaps one of the greatest frauds launched on mankind.
“Sobel says the basin itself is more than a billion years old, with stable bedrock overlaid by hundreds of millions of years of sediment. “You’ve got a pretty continuous pile of sediment from the Cambrian [period] on”, comparable to the strata visible in the Grand Canyon, he says.”
As Hubbert opined back in the late 1980s, more oil will be found but it won’t be easy to find or extract, and he gave a range of amounts that might be found. He called it “unconventional oil.” The key aspect is that the extraction plateau has managed to be continually extended so the rate of depletion continues to be negated by new discoveries along with demand destruction and more efficient use of oil.
I’ll need to do some digging into China’s energy policy and its future plans as it appears to value oil for use beyond being merely a transport fuel. Its national defense means are almost all oil powered; so, IMO these deep reservoirs will become strategic reserves.
Russia got it right.. In comparison Trumps Drill baby Drill cant happen without massive energy infrastructure development such as electric transmission and NG pipe lines much of which is in poor repair resulting in higher utility bills for years to come.
Then there is the massive energy requirements for Jumpstarting Trump grandiose re-development of American industrial manufacturing base and the now new planned nuclear mega power stations for AI.
Its all hyperbole considering todays Net Zero carbon restrictions mandates and years of neglect in domestic energy planning and bureaucratic red tape all of which are huge obstacles in obtaining today's energy needs that could be met through nuclear or NG or both.
Unfortunately due to political polarization america is still currently in deadlock and in a dismal predicament in comparison to what is happening around the world.
Mind-blowing! Advances in Quantum Computing have been going slowly for years. If true, this will be a leapfrog move from Russia.
Meanwhile, the best and brightest from the US built a government IT system that was installed in Ukraine. It was going to be a system that could be distributed to small countries around the globe. But,
"Remember Ukraine’s “Diia” Digital Governance System? Russian Hackers Brought It Down in December, and It Is Still Partly Down
"Regular NC readers are by now no strangers to Ukraine’s “state-of-the-art” Diia (Ukrainian for “action”) digital governance and identity system. For those who are, a quick recap: In December 2022, we reported that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky government was trying to digitise just about everything it could, including most government services and bureaucracy, even against a backdrop of war, rolling blackouts and internet outages:
""Ukraine may be suffering a rising wave of rolling power blackouts and internet outages as the proxy war between Russia and NATO intensifies, but that doesn’t seem to have crimped the Zelensky government’s ambitions to transform the country into a digital wonderland. In the past week alone, Ukraine’s central bank unveiled plans for a digital E-hryvnia and Kyiv signed a digital trade agreement (yep, they do exist) with the United Kingdom."""
"Presumably this is in reference to Diia’s armies of financial backers, including USAID, the UN Development Programme, the Swedish government, and the European Union, as well as the US tech giants that were closely involved in its roll out, including Amazon Web Services, Apple and Google. As Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation and Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proudly admitted in December 2022, Google is effectively running (or at least was) large parts of Diia:
“Google services have become our infrastructure. The tools provided by the company allowed the Government to function quickly and efficiently despite the shelling and constant threats of cyber attacks. In addition, Google ensures protection and security of Ukrainians’ data and promotes development of our entrepreneurs.”
That protection and security has now been seriously compromised."
Despite the propaganda about gallant little Ukraine destroying Russia's energy industry, it appears to be going strong. It is almost a model of how to conduct and implement long term energy development.
Energy is the foundation of a modern industrial or even post-industrial nation and society. A concept forgotten by those in thrall to the Green religion. Without energy you are back to the middle ages. And expensive and unrelaible energy simply creates an almost insurmountable competetive disadvantage. Just ask Germany. Mr T has changed tack in the USA, but who is to say a future POTUS won't change it back to the economy killing Biden policies? Meanwhile Europe continues to sacrifice its properity on the alter of Gaia.
There were several facets of Russia’s energy mix Novak didn’t cover that are related to Russia’s nuclear plants as the way to provide energy to remote Arctic locations as the one functioning floating nuclear plant is already doing. Keeping power generation as a public utility allows for much easier planning and cost reduction as all rents are collected by the government for the people and plowed back into power production and distibution.
The development of technologies for recovery of more problematic deposits is interesting, and forward thinking. Instead of waiting for depletion there's a clear program of diversification, and development and evaluation projects. Clearly both Russia and China have well developed nuclear technology, and countries that aren't beholden to the US can take advantage of what works best.
Im pretty certain we can all agree with the fact. That the standards of Western politicians have dropped so far. Planning more than 12 months ahead seems to be an impossible task for them to achieve. They also lack true leadership, no confident robust leaders amongst them. They're all poodles to one entity or another. Idealogs following their orders regardless of the effects on theur own countries & citizens. The proof is there for everyone to see. Whether it's Russia, China, India or many other countries. Forward looking countries confidently realising, the former imperial powers aren't the powers they once were. Their arrogance is still there, but it's backed up with nothing. This is resulting in an accelerated decline of the old world. Best of luck to the BRICS countries, they deserve every success for their forward thinking & actions.
One area where planning is paramount is in trying to formulate a national budget, which is really a problem when so much is controlled by private entities. The fact that billions in rents are retained by the people via their government instead of enriching a small elite is a major factor when comparing Neoliberal political-economic systems versus those of nations like Russia and China.
" ... those working within the USG bureaucracy has absolutely no excuse for not knowing ... " True, but I can assure you that they will invent the most bizarre excuses to continue with their Russophobic agenda. Digging their own grave has become an addiction for them.
Ummm... Fuck the climate, right. It's the BURNING of fossil fuels that's the problem🤦♀️ And fossil fuels are running out. There's no such thing as green or renewable energy. Modern life, as we know it, is UNSUSTAINABLE. Nothing will change that reality.
There’re other fuels besides hydrocarbons, and Russia’s plans show that it aims to be sustainable. And Russia knows better than most how the climate is changing and is also planning for that.
No. The way we live now is UNSUSTAINABLE. That's the fucking reality no one wants to face because then they'd have to give up convenience and comfort. Everything we rely on runs on cheap oil and gas. We can't mine, process, ship/transport, or build anything without it. No uranium. No lthium. No steel. No solar panels. No wind turbines.
Thank you for this post. I appreciate the details and the work required to produce it. It appears that Russia has a longer (20+ years) and more comprehensive planning regime than the west does.
But, I do have a serious concern. Fossil fuel deposits are finite, and while the US and Russia have abundant production of oil and gas, those reserves aren't going to last forever. US oil production is probably near the peak and gas is probably only a decade behind. Russian oil and gas have a few decades on the west before peaking. Both have at least a century, probably more, of coal production.
But, sooner or later, the fossil fuels will run out. And, before that happens, they will run low and start putting strain on the economy. The US has decided to ignore this problem. Do you have any sense of how Russia is approaching it?
Russia’s well aware of depletion as it’s seen it up close. It’s nuclear sector has mastered the fuel cycle with its 4th generation plants—all fuel is used; there’s no waste to store and pose potential problems. Then there’s the fusion front, which is very promising and is being done with China. Russian hydropower still has room to grow. Russia’s power generating and distribution sector is almost 100% publicly owned, which makes planning much easier, and rents are plowed back into improvements and expansion instead of going into shareholder pockets. If you have time, investigate Rosatom for it does much more than just build nuclear plants.
I doubt the finite nature of the worlds resources is new news at that level. The important thing is to ensure alternatives are viable. The incredible waste of human and financial capital on the current dysfunctional "renewable" technology set is perhaps one of the greatest frauds launched on mankind.
Many excellent ideas were shotdown by special interests or neutered at the outset. Or in my case, not bothering to table them given the above actions.
China is drilling far deeper (15,000 meters), successfully reaching plentiful oil and gas much deeper in the mantle.
This suggests that no one is going to run out anytime soon.
Well, China hasn’t gotten that deep yet—10K meters. I found some good articles about that project and the geologic province its exploring. However, these stats make me wonder what will be found, “temperatures above 200°C and reservoir pressure above 130 MPa,” and how difficult the well head will be to control. https://www.rogtecmagazine.com/an-ultra-deep-well-shenditake-1-10-thousand-meters-deep-was-drilled-in-china/
This other item has more info, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2376788-why-is-china-drilling-a-hole-more-than-10000-metres-deep/
with this in the closing paragraph,
“Sobel says the basin itself is more than a billion years old, with stable bedrock overlaid by hundreds of millions of years of sediment. “You’ve got a pretty continuous pile of sediment from the Cambrian [period] on”, comparable to the strata visible in the Grand Canyon, he says.”
As Hubbert opined back in the late 1980s, more oil will be found but it won’t be easy to find or extract, and he gave a range of amounts that might be found. He called it “unconventional oil.” The key aspect is that the extraction plateau has managed to be continually extended so the rate of depletion continues to be negated by new discoveries along with demand destruction and more efficient use of oil.
I’ll need to do some digging into China’s energy policy and its future plans as it appears to value oil for use beyond being merely a transport fuel. Its national defense means are almost all oil powered; so, IMO these deep reservoirs will become strategic reserves.
Russia got it right.. In comparison Trumps Drill baby Drill cant happen without massive energy infrastructure development such as electric transmission and NG pipe lines much of which is in poor repair resulting in higher utility bills for years to come.
Then there is the massive energy requirements for Jumpstarting Trump grandiose re-development of American industrial manufacturing base and the now new planned nuclear mega power stations for AI.
Its all hyperbole considering todays Net Zero carbon restrictions mandates and years of neglect in domestic energy planning and bureaucratic red tape all of which are huge obstacles in obtaining today's energy needs that could be met through nuclear or NG or both.
Unfortunately due to political polarization america is still currently in deadlock and in a dismal predicament in comparison to what is happening around the world.
Here’s another, https://sputnikglobe.com/20250201/russias-quantum-leap-rosatoms-breakthrough-set-to-transform-ai-healthcare-and-more-1121524625.html
Well, some countries in Europe are talking about opening back up Nordstream II
In other words, parts of Europe's energy planning horizon is at most 2 years
Time for a song with the refrain:
"Oh, when will they ever learn, oh when will they ever learn?"
Hi Don. Check this out, https://sputnikglobe.com/20250201/russias-quantum-leap-rosatoms-breakthrough-set-to-transform-ai-healthcare-and-more-1121524625.html
Mind-blowing! Advances in Quantum Computing have been going slowly for years. If true, this will be a leapfrog move from Russia.
Meanwhile, the best and brightest from the US built a government IT system that was installed in Ukraine. It was going to be a system that could be distributed to small countries around the globe. But,
"Remember Ukraine’s “Diia” Digital Governance System? Russian Hackers Brought It Down in December, and It Is Still Partly Down
Posted on January 31, 2025 by Nick Corbishley"
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01/remember-ukraines-diia-digital-governance-system-russia-brought-it-down-just-before-christmas-and-its-still-down.html
"Regular NC readers are by now no strangers to Ukraine’s “state-of-the-art” Diia (Ukrainian for “action”) digital governance and identity system. For those who are, a quick recap: In December 2022, we reported that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky government was trying to digitise just about everything it could, including most government services and bureaucracy, even against a backdrop of war, rolling blackouts and internet outages:
""Ukraine may be suffering a rising wave of rolling power blackouts and internet outages as the proxy war between Russia and NATO intensifies, but that doesn’t seem to have crimped the Zelensky government’s ambitions to transform the country into a digital wonderland. In the past week alone, Ukraine’s central bank unveiled plans for a digital E-hryvnia and Kyiv signed a digital trade agreement (yep, they do exist) with the United Kingdom."""
"Presumably this is in reference to Diia’s armies of financial backers, including USAID, the UN Development Programme, the Swedish government, and the European Union, as well as the US tech giants that were closely involved in its roll out, including Amazon Web Services, Apple and Google. As Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation and Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proudly admitted in December 2022, Google is effectively running (or at least was) large parts of Diia:
“Google services have become our infrastructure. The tools provided by the company allowed the Government to function quickly and efficiently despite the shelling and constant threats of cyber attacks. In addition, Google ensures protection and security of Ukrainians’ data and promotes development of our entrepreneurs.”
That protection and security has now been seriously compromised."
This substack was posted on Naked Capitalism today!
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/links-2-2-2025.html
One has to scroll through most of the main page to find it.
I commented recommending that others look into this substack, but I am not sure if my comment will be posted.
Readers of this substack might want to go to Naked Capitalism and encourage their readers to check this substack out.
Yeah, the Gym gets mentioned in the Links section on occasion. Slowly gaining visibility.
Despite the propaganda about gallant little Ukraine destroying Russia's energy industry, it appears to be going strong. It is almost a model of how to conduct and implement long term energy development.
Energy is the foundation of a modern industrial or even post-industrial nation and society. A concept forgotten by those in thrall to the Green religion. Without energy you are back to the middle ages. And expensive and unrelaible energy simply creates an almost insurmountable competetive disadvantage. Just ask Germany. Mr T has changed tack in the USA, but who is to say a future POTUS won't change it back to the economy killing Biden policies? Meanwhile Europe continues to sacrifice its properity on the alter of Gaia.
There were several facets of Russia’s energy mix Novak didn’t cover that are related to Russia’s nuclear plants as the way to provide energy to remote Arctic locations as the one functioning floating nuclear plant is already doing. Keeping power generation as a public utility allows for much easier planning and cost reduction as all rents are collected by the government for the people and plowed back into power production and distibution.
The development of technologies for recovery of more problematic deposits is interesting, and forward thinking. Instead of waiting for depletion there's a clear program of diversification, and development and evaluation projects. Clearly both Russia and China have well developed nuclear technology, and countries that aren't beholden to the US can take advantage of what works best.
Do see this, https://sputnikglobe.com/20250201/russias-quantum-leap-rosatoms-breakthrough-set-to-transform-ai-healthcare-and-more-1121524625.html
Im pretty certain we can all agree with the fact. That the standards of Western politicians have dropped so far. Planning more than 12 months ahead seems to be an impossible task for them to achieve. They also lack true leadership, no confident robust leaders amongst them. They're all poodles to one entity or another. Idealogs following their orders regardless of the effects on theur own countries & citizens. The proof is there for everyone to see. Whether it's Russia, China, India or many other countries. Forward looking countries confidently realising, the former imperial powers aren't the powers they once were. Their arrogance is still there, but it's backed up with nothing. This is resulting in an accelerated decline of the old world. Best of luck to the BRICS countries, they deserve every success for their forward thinking & actions.
One area where planning is paramount is in trying to formulate a national budget, which is really a problem when so much is controlled by private entities. The fact that billions in rents are retained by the people via their government instead of enriching a small elite is a major factor when comparing Neoliberal political-economic systems versus those of nations like Russia and China.
" ... those working within the USG bureaucracy has absolutely no excuse for not knowing ... " True, but I can assure you that they will invent the most bizarre excuses to continue with their Russophobic agenda. Digging their own grave has become an addiction for them.
Ummm... Fuck the climate, right. It's the BURNING of fossil fuels that's the problem🤦♀️ And fossil fuels are running out. There's no such thing as green or renewable energy. Modern life, as we know it, is UNSUSTAINABLE. Nothing will change that reality.
There’re other fuels besides hydrocarbons, and Russia’s plans show that it aims to be sustainable. And Russia knows better than most how the climate is changing and is also planning for that.
No. The way we live now is UNSUSTAINABLE. That's the fucking reality no one wants to face because then they'd have to give up convenience and comfort. Everything we rely on runs on cheap oil and gas. We can't mine, process, ship/transport, or build anything without it. No uranium. No lthium. No steel. No solar panels. No wind turbines.