There’re a great many items I might post to cap today since Moon of Alabama went silent this morning. Before I provide the translation of Marat’s Telegram posting, I’ll suggest Ted Postol’s analysis of Iran’s missile and drone assault on Occupied Palestine;
Many Ukrainians are and they're the lucky ones. But then the Ukie trooper has no real agency as it's those in command who must give up. But Marat has it right about the unshaven man in the dirty shirt--he takes his silver and looks the other way.
thanks karl... i will get to the articles! i miss moa, lol!
what is 'dill' supposed to mean in the long quote from above? i don't get it... i read the rt article.. that is fairly sobering... i just realized april 1st - the date of the israel embassy attack on irans embassy in damascus, is an important date in iran.. -> "Iran officially became the Islamic Republic on April 1, 1979, when Iranians overwhelmingly approved a national referendum to make it so.."
clearly the date to bomb the iran embassy was no coincidence...
on a different note - musical - i am listening to a great recording by cindy lee on youtube.. others might enjoy it!
Sorry, "dill" is an expression describing the common Ukie. I suppose it's easier to imagine all those bodies as weeds. I'd ask S if I could. Maybe one of my Russian readers will enlighten us.
And October 7th 2023 was the Fiftieth Anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur war.
As for dill it is an essential ingredient in pickled cucumbers , just as lime- as in 'limey' was an essential part of the sailor's antiscorbutic regimen.
Let us hope that Bernhard will be fit and refreshed soon.
Well personally I'd put UAF losses at c 1,000 per day KIA, WIA and MIA - maybe only 800. Around half are permanent - KIA, MIA or never going to be returnable to service. As a rough calculation, this level of loss - two years into the war - allows numbers to be maintained by (a) new conscripts [badly trained at c 10K to 15K per month] and the same in returning wounded. But quality and morale keeps dropping. This would normally imply an increased casualty rate and so losses might be higher. I consider that only in the event that surrendering goes up will the UAF start collapsing. I have said previously I think that might start about now or in May but the hope of more cash, weapons and {NATO?} direct assistance may keep the PBI in the UAF going a bit longer. However I think it likely that the $61B exists for weapons that already have been sent or do not exist yet. The situation on the ground remains critical for IUkraine and recently they can only hold ground by spending blood, iron and treasure. I wonder how much remains?
Bottom of the barrel it appears. That the vaunted Nazi brigades don't want to engage in combat is a big signal. I'm going to write a short article about the appearance of "Turtle Tanks" on the Russian side.
IMO, the final outcome will be decided by morale. Now in WW2 the Bad guys surrendered to the Western Allies in droves, but fought the Red Army until the last few days. I do think the bottom of the barrel has not been reached, but it is in sight.
My original prognosis was based on manpower. Maybe I underestimated the powers of [theoretical] replacement. but not much. If an assignment to the front is a one way street [and it now is] then you have to be pretty motivated to fight on. It was mainly based on munitions, particularly air defence stocks. The Ukes themselves said they would run out by now. And it largely appears they have. My bet is that the west have already sent sent most of what they have. So Russia has now air superiority. They still suffer losses but the $61B won't make a huge difference. I increasingly find the guys on the Duran's arguments convincing. That is this is a done deal already and an accounting entry.
However I started reading and posting on theses sort of sites becaise I found the official line unconvincing to the point of nonesense. I like truth, or at least rationality. So it sometimes is difficult to seperate that line from trying to be justified in one's predictions. I attempt to keep a clear head on these matters. Mainly unsuccessfully. But I suggest the start of the collapse might be delayed a few weeks? But stained resistance to November - well I think dream on....
The best weapon Ukies have is FPV drones as their stock of artillery tubes and ammo dwindle; so, defeating FPV drones becomes the #1 priority to increase the rate of advance over open terrain. Urban enclaves regardless their size will always slow advances because they're fortified to some degree and thus take longer to clear, although Russia has devised new tactics for urban assault, and will now do the same for open terrain as I allude to in my turtle tank article.
Thank you, Karl. Yes, I do understand the closing line of your commentary and the role of the Empire….but reading the account of causalities….could I really *think* this horror that the USA has unleashed — to the last Ukrainian? And those people who keep this slaughter going will just go on….but how the ordinary Ukrainians are going to come to terms with this?
What's happening in the minds of most Ukrainians is clearly a mystery. However, some insights can be gained by what behavior gets reported--draft resistance, sometimes very violent from small villages; flight to lands outside Ukraine; more mass surrenders at the front line; and a great disconnect between life in far Western Ukraine versus the East side of the Dnieper. And then there's the corruption, organ and human trafficking, drug issues and other illegal actions by those associated with the UkroNazi government.
I wish Ukrainians would just give up already. For their own good. It's painful to watch.
Many Ukrainians are and they're the lucky ones. But then the Ukie trooper has no real agency as it's those in command who must give up. But Marat has it right about the unshaven man in the dirty shirt--he takes his silver and looks the other way.
"Iran’s reaction to what the Zionists might have attempted" - is that a reference to Escobar's F35 story?
Yes. Pepe was in on a talk show earlier today with Larry Johnson, https://sonar21.com/pepe-escobar-elaborates-on-source-claim-that-russia-shot-down-an-israeli-f-35/
thanks karl... i will get to the articles! i miss moa, lol!
what is 'dill' supposed to mean in the long quote from above? i don't get it... i read the rt article.. that is fairly sobering... i just realized april 1st - the date of the israel embassy attack on irans embassy in damascus, is an important date in iran.. -> "Iran officially became the Islamic Republic on April 1, 1979, when Iranians overwhelmingly approved a national referendum to make it so.."
clearly the date to bomb the iran embassy was no coincidence...
on a different note - musical - i am listening to a great recording by cindy lee on youtube.. others might enjoy it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LJi5na897Y
Sorry, "dill" is an expression describing the common Ukie. I suppose it's easier to imagine all those bodies as weeds. I'd ask S if I could. Maybe one of my Russian readers will enlighten us.
thanks karl! moa is amazing for the diversity and knowledge of the reader base.. s is one good example of this..
And October 7th 2023 was the Fiftieth Anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur war.
As for dill it is an essential ingredient in pickled cucumbers , just as lime- as in 'limey' was an essential part of the sailor's antiscorbutic regimen.
Let us hope that Bernhard will be fit and refreshed soon.
Interesting point on the Fiftieth Anniversary, what a coincidence....
I very much agree on the wishes for Bernhard to get well soon!
Re Cindy Lee… Couldn’t listen, too much reverb for me!
yes, they did fall back on the reverb a fair amount!
Thank you for this is an extremely wide-ranging and informative post.
Well personally I'd put UAF losses at c 1,000 per day KIA, WIA and MIA - maybe only 800. Around half are permanent - KIA, MIA or never going to be returnable to service. As a rough calculation, this level of loss - two years into the war - allows numbers to be maintained by (a) new conscripts [badly trained at c 10K to 15K per month] and the same in returning wounded. But quality and morale keeps dropping. This would normally imply an increased casualty rate and so losses might be higher. I consider that only in the event that surrendering goes up will the UAF start collapsing. I have said previously I think that might start about now or in May but the hope of more cash, weapons and {NATO?} direct assistance may keep the PBI in the UAF going a bit longer. However I think it likely that the $61B exists for weapons that already have been sent or do not exist yet. The situation on the ground remains critical for IUkraine and recently they can only hold ground by spending blood, iron and treasure. I wonder how much remains?
Bottom of the barrel it appears. That the vaunted Nazi brigades don't want to engage in combat is a big signal. I'm going to write a short article about the appearance of "Turtle Tanks" on the Russian side.
IMO, the final outcome will be decided by morale. Now in WW2 the Bad guys surrendered to the Western Allies in droves, but fought the Red Army until the last few days. I do think the bottom of the barrel has not been reached, but it is in sight.
My original prognosis was based on manpower. Maybe I underestimated the powers of [theoretical] replacement. but not much. If an assignment to the front is a one way street [and it now is] then you have to be pretty motivated to fight on. It was mainly based on munitions, particularly air defence stocks. The Ukes themselves said they would run out by now. And it largely appears they have. My bet is that the west have already sent sent most of what they have. So Russia has now air superiority. They still suffer losses but the $61B won't make a huge difference. I increasingly find the guys on the Duran's arguments convincing. That is this is a done deal already and an accounting entry.
However I started reading and posting on theses sort of sites becaise I found the official line unconvincing to the point of nonesense. I like truth, or at least rationality. So it sometimes is difficult to seperate that line from trying to be justified in one's predictions. I attempt to keep a clear head on these matters. Mainly unsuccessfully. But I suggest the start of the collapse might be delayed a few weeks? But stained resistance to November - well I think dream on....
The best weapon Ukies have is FPV drones as their stock of artillery tubes and ammo dwindle; so, defeating FPV drones becomes the #1 priority to increase the rate of advance over open terrain. Urban enclaves regardless their size will always slow advances because they're fortified to some degree and thus take longer to clear, although Russia has devised new tactics for urban assault, and will now do the same for open terrain as I allude to in my turtle tank article.
It was said slow and steady wins the race; the turtle and the hare.
Ten years from now the Ukrainians that survive this tragedy will detest the Empire.
Thank you, Karl. Yes, I do understand the closing line of your commentary and the role of the Empire….but reading the account of causalities….could I really *think* this horror that the USA has unleashed — to the last Ukrainian? And those people who keep this slaughter going will just go on….but how the ordinary Ukrainians are going to come to terms with this?
What's happening in the minds of most Ukrainians is clearly a mystery. However, some insights can be gained by what behavior gets reported--draft resistance, sometimes very violent from small villages; flight to lands outside Ukraine; more mass surrenders at the front line; and a great disconnect between life in far Western Ukraine versus the East side of the Dnieper. And then there's the corruption, organ and human trafficking, drug issues and other illegal actions by those associated with the UkroNazi government.
At the beginning of the SMO didn't Zelensky hand out lots of AKs - I'm surprised these aren't surfacing and being used on "recruitment officers".
IMO, many were sold to black market for needed cash. But many of those were handed out in Kiev and other cities in the West which tend to be Pro-Nazi.